Update on the LUCH (OLYMP) #40258 fragmentation event of 2026-01-30Here, a short update on the fragmentation event of LUCH (OLYMP) #40258 that began at 06:09:03 UTC on 2026-01-30.The analysis of our recordings showed a whole series of events that occurred within a period of about 40 minutes.The different events during the first 40 minutes.The series of events started at 06:09:03 with an initial increase in luminosity and a plume that was probably caused by venting or fuel loss and lasted for several seconds. 2 seconds later the first debris could be detected and moved radially away from the parent object.The next burst occurred at 06:14:16, followed by larger and smaller energetic events at 06:16:24, 06:20:32, 06:22:07, 06:22:59, 06:36:32, 06:44:14, 06:45:46 and 06:48:45, with the plumes of 06:36:32 and 06:44:14 being the largest in dimension.Immediately with the first event, a rotation of the Satellite could be observed, which increased over time, especially after the events at 06:22:59 (~38 seconds) and 06:45:46 (~28 seconds).(Image #1) Light curve from 2026-02-05Our observations of the rotation during the past few days show a stable rotation pattern, with a period today of 27.9 seconds.In total, we were able to detect 18 pieces of debris, whereby the size of the instrument used and the relatively short exposure time were a limiting factor.Image #2: The situation on 2026-01-30 08:24:51 UTCWe have been able to track one piece of debris to date, and we classify two additional pieces as potential candidates. A detailed analysis of the trajectory of all detected objects shortly after fragmentation is ongoing.Image #3: The reason for this fragmentation still remains unclear:It could have been triggered by a small object (space debris or a meteoroid). If such an object impacts with sufficient velocity, enough energy can be released to trigger this type of event.An internal event caused by insufficient passivation (battery or residual propellant) is equally possible. The fact that there was apparently still a noticeable amount of remaining fuel during the events of January 30, and that no clear rotation was observed before the event, could be an indication of this.
