Soyuz-2.1a - Obzor-R n.º 1 - Plesetsk 43/4 - 25 December 2025 (14:11 UTC)

[Galactic Penguin SST]

If I am not mistaken, the 14:00-15:00 UTC launch window would result in a SSO with local time at ascending/descending nodes around 18:00/06:00 on the terminator - which is routinely used for SAR Earth Observation satellites (for power constraints). So I would say Obzor-R seems like a good candidate.

[B. Hendrickx]

If I am not mistaken, the 14:00-15:00 UTC launch window would result in a SSO with local time at ascending/descending nodes around 18:00/06:00 on the terminator - which is routinely used for SAR Earth Observation satellites (for power constraints). So I would say Obzor-R seems like a good candidate.

And so is Araks-R, another radar satellite that is long overdue.

[zubenelgenubi]

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/araks-r.htm
https://russianspaceweb.com/araks.html (includes mention of the radar reconnaissance satellites)

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32725.0
https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/obzor-r.htm
https://russianspaceweb.com/obzor_r.html

Moderator:
We may merge this thread with the appropriate pre-existing thread when we know what's what.

[B. Hendrickx]

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/araks-r.htm

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/obzor-r.htm
https://russianspaceweb.com/obzor_r.html

Much more information on Araks-R is in the program thread on this forum:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45025.0

[Remes]

NAVAREA XIX Warnings
Number:   166/25
Date:   061830 UTC dec 25
Warning:   BARENTS  SEA
AREA DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION
DUE TO ROCKET CARRIER ELEMENTS FALL
DAILY FROM 1400-1500 UTC 11-16 DEC IN AREA
76-22N 021-55E
75-24N 024-43E
74-51N 021-45E
75-50N 018-50E

Might not be Isar. I guess that is some other customer. Or exercise. Unless they add more warnings for the launch area.

[TheKutKu]

NAVAREA XIX Warnings
Number:   166/25
Date:   061830 UTC dec 25
Warning:   BARENTS  SEA
AREA DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION
DUE TO ROCKET CARRIER ELEMENTS FALL
DAILY FROM 1400-1500 UTC 11-16 DEC IN AREA
76-22N 021-55E
75-24N 024-43E
74-51N 021-45E
75-50N 018-50E

Might not be Isar. I guess that is some other customer. Or exercise. Unless they add more warnings for the launch area.

Definitely too far east to be Spectrum.

Road closure and cancelled NOTMAR point toward NET Dec 10 rn.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

NAVAREA XIX Warnings
Number:   166/25
Date:   061830 UTC dec 25
Warning:   BARENTS  SEA
AREA DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION
DUE TO ROCKET CARRIER ELEMENTS FALL
DAILY FROM 1400-1500 UTC 11-16 DEC IN AREA
76-22N 021-55E
75-24N 024-43E
74-51N 021-45E
75-50N 018-50E

Might not be Isar. I guess that is some other customer. Or exercise. Unless they add more warnings for the launch area.

Definitely too far east to be Spectrum.

Road closure and cancelled NOTMAR point toward NET Dec 10 rn.

This is identified as a Soyuz-2 launch from Plesetsk, as you can see from the posts above.

[B. Hendrickx]

A NOTAM has appeared for the impact of the first-stage strap-on boosters in the White Sea (a southern inlet of the Barents Sea). The launch window (December 11-16) has remained unchanged.

ПРИП АРХАНГЕЛЬСК 105/25 КАРТА 91306 ЮЖНАЯ ЧАСТЬ БЕЛОГО МОРЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 11 ПО 16 ДЕК 1400 ДО 1500
РАЙОНЕ ЗАПРЕТНОМ ДЛЯ ПЛАВАНИЯ
66-10.0С 037-10.0В
66-00.0C 038-20.0В
65-30.0С 038-30.0В
65-30.0С 037-30.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 161600 ДЕК=
081000 МСК ГС- НННН

If I am not mistaken, the 14:00-15:00 UTC launch window would result in a SSO with local time at ascending/descending nodes around 18:00/06:00 on the terminator - which is routinely used for SAR Earth Observation satellites (for power constraints). So I would say Obzor-R seems like a good candidate.

According to an Obzor-R user guide published by Roscosmos, this is exactly the orbit planned for the satellite:
(translated)

The Obzor-R satellite operates in a sun-synchronous near-terminator near-circular orbit with the following nominal parameters:
-orbital inclination 97.96°;
-period of revolution 97.64 min;
-average altitude 654 km.
...
The selected initial inclination of the orbital plane...ensures a stable position of the orbital plane relative to the Sun throughout the flight: the deviation of the local mean solar time of passage of the ascending node of the orbit does not exceed 2.5 min from the nominal (18 hours 00 minutes).

However, this could also very well be the kind of orbit envisaged for Araks-R. Obzor-R and Araks-R currently remain the most likely candidates for this launch, although we could always be in for a surprise. Despite the fact that Obzor-R is a civilian satellite, there is no guarantee that its launch will be announced in advance. With the current level of secrecy, Roscosmos may elect not to divulge anything about an upcoming launch from the country's military cosmodrome.

[B. Hendrickx]

A8112/25   
Effective Date: 2025-12-06 10:20:00
A8112/25 NOTAMC A8035/25
Q) ENOB/QRDCN/IV/BO /W /000/999/7537N02147E047
A) ENOB B) 2512061020
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA W DEC25' CANCELLED

This refers to the NOTAM mentioned in the beginning of this thread. If I interpret this correctly, the launch has been postponed. It has also disappeared from the Navarea XIX warnings issued by the Norwegian Coastal Administration.

[B. Hendrickx]

A post on the NK forum by what appears to be an insider indicates that the payload is Obzor-R. He writes in the Obzor-R thread that the satellite has been checked and fueled and that the rocket is ready too. They're just awaiting the "release of the launch pad", which he explains in a subsequent post by saying that it is needed for "a dry rollout of 1440". This is seemingly a practice rollout of a Soyuz-2 rocket carrying a cluster of Rassvet broadband satellites built by Bureau 1440. That launch was also expected from Plesetsk this month. It's the first dedicated launch of these satellites from Plesetsk, but that still leaves the question why a practice rollout is needed (not a standard procedure for a tried-and-tested rocket) and why that was considered important enough to bump the launch of Obzor-R (the more so because two Soyuz-2 pads are available at Plesetsk). That launch was apparently still set for December 11 last Monday, when a NOTAM was released for the impact zone of the first-stage strap-on boosters.

I should add that the person in question has never posted anything before, so this information may have to be treated with some caution.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Someone on N-K forums claimed this has been rescheduled for December 17. No signs of that on NOTAMs yet, while marine navigation warnings still listed the old December 11-16 window.

[russianhalo117]

Someone on N-K forums claimed this has been rescheduled for December 17. No signs of that on NOTAMs yet, while marine navigation warnings still listed the old December 11-16 window.

Via non N-K information Anatoly Zak confirms that the payload is Obzor-R and December 17-20 is the tentative window for the flight with the 17th as the primary.

[zubenelgenubi]

Moderator:
We may merge this thread with the appropriate pre-existing thread when we know what's what.

Threads merged.

[Alter Sachse]

A post on the NK forum by what appears to be an insider indicates that the payload is Obzor-R. He writes in the Obzor-R thread that the satellite has been checked and fueled and that the rocket is ready too. They're just awaiting the "release of the launch pad", which he explains in a subsequent post by saying that it is needed for "a dry rollout of 1440". This is seemingly a practice rollout of a Soyuz-2 rocket carrying a cluster of Rassvet broadband satellites built by Bureau 1440. That launch was also expected from Plesetsk this month. It's the first dedicated launch of these satellites from Plesetsk, but that still leaves the question why a practice rollout is needed (not a standard procedure for a tried-and-tested rocket) and why that was considered important enough to bump the launch of Obzor-R (the more so because two Soyuz-2 pads are available at Plesetsk). That launch was apparently still set for December 11 last Monday, when a NOTAM was released for the impact zone of the first-stage strap-on boosters.

I should add that the person in question has never posted anything before, so this information may have to be treated with some caution.

A joke ?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

New NOTAM has been issued showing launch on NET December 23 instead:

A8240/25 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7537N02147E047
A) ENOB B) 2512231400 C) 2512281500
D) DAILY 1400-1500
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA W DEC25' ACTIVATED. PSN
762200N 0215500E - 752400N 0244300E - 745100N 0214500E - 755000N
0185000E - (762200N 0215500E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES.
SIMILAR ACTIVITIES ARE ALSO PLANNED WITHIN THE UNALLOCATED
INTERNATIONAL AIRSPACE IN PSN 705600N 0320500E - 701000N 0320500E -
700928N 0320152E - 701500N 0315000E - 703007N 0315000E - 703622N
0314318E - (705600N 0320500E)
F) SFC G) UNL

[B. Hendrickx]

An insider on the NK forum confirms the December 23 target date. Roll-out to the pad is expected four days before launch.

[B. Hendrickx]

According to the NK forum insider, the launch has been pushed back to December 24. Back-up opportunity on December 25.

[Targeteer]

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/2003572633233997961

[B. Hendrickx]

I understand the launch is set for 14.10 UTC. So far not a word from Roscosmos on the upcoming launch of this long-awaited satellite, which has always been portrayed as a civilian satellite. The launch is clearly being given the same treatment as a secret military launch. The question is if this is only because it takes place from Plesetsk or if the satellite has perhaps acquired a dual civilian/military role. This is Russia's first high-resolution X-band radar satellite and it would definitely be of interest to the military in the continuing absence of Araks-R, which is essentially its military equivalent. Official post-launch reports may provide some clues.

[starbase]

Livestream of a local webcam might show the launch: