Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012

[MartianBase]

So this is coming from DPRK state tv? sounds like they are really going to do it

In which case the North Koreans will be following the examples set by the Soviet Union, the United States, France, China, UK, India, Israel and Iran.   Not bad company for the North Koreans to be with!!

They are probably also jealous of Ukraine  but especially Japan, a country which N.Korea has a bitter history  . At least countries of Europe and N.America have mostly put their history behind them...mostly. Asia compared to the West is still very unstable and the Middle East it only takes the slightest incident and everything starts blowing up in that sandbox 

[Cbased]

Does anyone know or can confirm if it is a clone of SS-N-6?

[MartianBase]

No this is Taepodong-II, the earlier Tapepo-1 and Nodongs are rumored to be based on Russian tech acquired after the USSR collapsed. Intelligence reports to congress back up these rumors

According to unidentified U.S. intelligence officials, the Taepo Dong X is believed
to be based on the former Soviet Navy SS-N-6 submarine launched ballistic missile that
North Korea may have possibly obtained from Russia between 1992 and 1998.

According to this official, the Intelligence Community has “had hints of this for several
years” but only within the last year were they able to confirm the Taepo Dong X’s
existence and its use of SS-N-6 technology to improve its range and accuracy.

Officials
stated that there was no indication that the Russian government had sanctioned missile
sales to the North Korean government in “at least five years.”

An unnamed congressional source reportedly noted that the Russian Pacific Fleet, which deployed the
SS-N-6,was“desperatelydisorganizedandunderfunded”duringtheperiodbetween1992
and 1998, suggesting that North Korea might have obtained SS-N-6 technologyfrom the
Russian Navy or the missile’s designer, the Makeyev Design Bureau, without the
knowledge or approval of the Russian government.

It is possible that North Korea developed another version of the Taepo Dong 2 with
relatively little advanced knowledge by U.S. intelligence agencies. The secretive nature
of North Korea’s ballistic missile program is not without precedence - their August 1998
Taepo Dong 1 launch came with little warning. If North Korea has developed a “Taepo
Dong X”, there are a number of factors that should be considered before assuming that
some or all of the United States is now within range of this missile.
Technical Considerations. The Taepo Dong 2, which most analysts believe is
a two or three stage missile with clustered No Dong engines in the first stage and a No
Dong second stage, has never been flight tested.

Recent alleged intelligence reports are not clear if the Taepo Dong X consists of an untested Taepo Dong 2 mounted on top of
the SS-N-6 or some other configuration. The SS-N-6, which entered service with the
Soviet Navy in 1968, is assessed as having only a 3,000 km range

http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/missiles/CRS-RS21473_DPRKMissileThreatUS.pdf

[Ronsmytheiii]

Here is a screen shot of the trajectory for the claimed satellite launch of Kwangmyongsong 1, can our trajectory friends shine any light on what is shown?:

[MartianBase]

The Chinese infotainment portal Sina Shanghai is blogging it.


DPRK says it is preparing satellite launch (2009-03-07 21:54:57)
标签：杂谈 

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_5e6b84270100cjkc.html



The Democratic People's republic of Korea (DPRK) will test-launch a communications satellite, the official KCNA news agency quoted a space department spokeman as saying yesterday.

  The satellite will be carried by a "Galaxy 2" launch vehicle in the East Sea Space launching Base located in Hwadae country in North Hamgyong province, said a spokesman for DPRK Committee of Space Technology.

  He said preparing work was under way, but didn't specify a date for launch.

  The DPRK has pushed ahead with reserach and development aimed at putting a sattelite into orbit "with its own effort and technology since the 1980's". It had achieved great success, putting the first experimental sattelite, "Kwangmyongsong-1" into orbit in August 1998, the spokesman said.

  This was the first phase of a national long-term plan for space development. The country was expected to launch satelites for communications, prospecting for natural resources and weather forcasting in the years to come. This would contribute toward building an economic power.

  The DPRK in the past few weeks said it had the right to develop a peaceful space program.

  But there are fears that this could actually be a test-launch of a long-range missile.

  According to South Korea's Yonhap News Angency, the DPRK made a similar claim after launching a roket in 1998, saying it had successded in the putting a sattelite into orbit. But the United Sates at the time alleged the rocket was a ballistic missile named"Taepodong-1".

  The U.S and South Korean media have repeatedly reported that the DPRK was about to test-fire a ballistic missile designed to carry a nuclear warhead that could hit U.S territory. U.S. officals have warned the DPRK against the launch.

[osiossim]

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/03/113_40930.html

NK Threatens War Over Satellite Shootdown

[iamlucky13]

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/03/113_40930.html

NK Threatens War Over Satellite Shootdown

Not that anyone has threatened to shoot down a legitimate satellite, but they wanted to make sure they got that out there so it would be clear that they're being oppressed.

North Korea is currently being very feisty. Last week they implicitly threatened to shoot down commercial airliners flying through NK airspace, something they've allowed since the 90's, and which generated some useful revenue for them.

It's hard to guess what they're thinking. And it's notable that Kim Jong Il has been very seldom in the news lately, although he did win their recent "election" with 100% of the vote. 

[robertross]

North Korea is currently being very feisty. Last week they implicitly threatened to shoot down commercial airliners flying through NK airspace, something they've allowed since the 90's, and which generated some useful revenue for them.

It's hard to guess what they're thinking. And it's notable that Kim Jong Il has been very seldom in the news lately, although he did win their recent "election" with 100% of the vote. 

It's not hard to guess what they're doing: it's called prelude to war. They are going hungry and need to deal with their soldiers: desperate measures.

Their previous actions of flying a rocket over Japan are clearly provocations. This latest 'satellite launch' is clearly a cover for advanced ballistic missile development. They've also clearly developed nuclear weapons and tested them underground. No good will come of this.

I doubt the DPRK has enough money to go around to fund a both a rocket program AND a satellite program. If we had seen them progressing towards a more benign program, we could dismiss all this, but I don't see it.

[edkyle99]

It's not hard to guess what they're doing: it's called prelude to war. They are going hungry and need to deal with their soldiers: desperate measures.

Their previous actions of flying a rocket over Japan are clearly provocations. This latest 'satellite launch' is clearly a cover for advanced ballistic missile development. They've also clearly developed nuclear weapons and tested them underground. No good will come of this.

I doubt the DPRK has enough money to go around to fund a both a rocket program AND a satellite program. If we had seen them progressing towards a more benign program, we could dismiss all this, but I don't see it.

How is North Korea supposed to launch a satellite without overflying Japan?  Even a southerly launch would overfly Japan. 

How does Taeopo Dong 2, or whatever its called, represent a valid, practical military threat?  The whole world has been watching North Korea spend weeks getting this launch ready to go.  Not a very good weapons system, it seems to me. 

Plus there is that overwhelming retaliatory strike business that makes a nuke missile essentially useless in a military sense.  Sleek and pretty, and perhaps a fair bully-threat to keep potential invaders at bay, but you can't ever use it.

 - Ed Kyle

[iamlucky13]

Plus there is that overwhelming retaliatory strike business that makes a nuke missile essentially useless in a military sense.  Sleek and pretty, and perhaps a fair bully-threat to keep potential invaders at bay, but you can't ever use it.

 - Ed Kyle

I don't think they'd even get as far as drawing a retaliatory strike, because I'm skeptical they have a nuclear warhead that would fit on their existing missiles and have useful range. If they did, they'd most likely hold it as a bargaining chip in a conventional conflict: compromise or else.

I'm pretty skeptical of robert's assertion that they're leading up to war, although thinking about it a little more now, they could be staging a really thin case to deliberately get their rocket shot down, which they just effectively defined as an act of war. I just don't see what the benefit would be. Their military isn't exactly in stellar shape right now, while South Korea's is arguably the best its ever been.

However, they have consistently through the last two administrations successfully run a concessions racket. They ran breeder reactors and we made concessions to get them to shut them down...after they already stockpiled a large amount of plutonium. They restarted their nuclear weapons program and we gave them free oil as an incentive to shut it down...after they tested a nuclear weapon. It seems more likely they'd be trying to extend that: "Now we've demonstrated MRBM technology. Give us more free stuff and we'll stop working on it."

But their current stance seems largely counterproductive to me. As far as I know they were really beginning to benefit in increasing degrees from increased trade with South Korea and China, and they're cutting themselves off from it. I think they were bringing in millions of dollars a year just from having commercial airliners overfly their airspace (which the airlines were happy to pay to save an hours worth of fuel).

[ostangen]

Kwangmyongsong-2 to be launched between 4-8 April.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2009/03/12/46/0301000000AEN20090312004200315F.HTML

[ostangen]

In a letter sent to ICAO on 11 March, the DPRK indicates that the launch would take place between 4 and 8 April, and between 0200 and 0700 (UTC). The letter also identifies two potential “danger” areas. In
ICAO terms, a danger area refers to an airspace of defined dimensions within which activities dangerous to the flight of aircraft may exist at specified times. The two areas in question are described as:
Area one                       Area two
1) N404140 E1353445 1) N343542 E1644042
2) N402722 E1383040 2) N312222 E1721836
3) N401634 E1383022 3) N295553 E1721347
4) N403052 E1353426 4) N330916 E1643542

----------------------------------------------------

1 and 2. stage drop off I would assume, but what about the fairing drop off?

Anyone dare to give some etimates on the tradjectory (inclination, altitude).

Why the launch during daylight? More visability of the launch?





http://www.icao.int/icao/en/nr/2009/pio200902_e.pdf

[William Graham]

The locations of the two "danger areas" suggest they're going to shoot it across Japan again.

[kevin-rf]

1 and 2. stage drop off I would assume, but what about the fairing drop off?

Fairing drop off in the same area as the first stage? You want to shed the fairing dead weight as soon as possible. Many launchers shed the fairing shortly after staging the first stage. Does this imply a three stage vehicle? Or is the second drop off the fairing? If three stages it would be quite different from the recent iranian launch (many say they are "similar" vehicles).

[iamlucky13]

The locations of the two "danger areas" suggest they're going to shoot it across Japan again.

But at least they seem to be giving relatively clear info.

I'd imagine as long as it follows the published trajectory exactly, Japan will be content to just watch it, but if it deviates at all...let's just say North Korea's can potentially expect a backup range safety system labeled "MIM-104C. Product of the USA" to activate.

Why the launch during daylight? More visability of the launch?

Why not?

[William Graham]

North Korea's can potentially expect a backup range safety system labeled "MIM-104C. Product of the USA" to activate.

Or, more likely, " RIM-161A, Made in the USA. Actual results may vary.* "

* - On account of the last two test launches being failures.

Why the launch during daylight? More visability of the launch?

Why not?

But then why not launch at night?

[kevin-rf]

But then why not launch at night?

Union Rules, they don't have the money for overtime

[iamlucky13]

Why the launch during daylight? More visability of the launch?

Why not?

But then why not launch at night?

Lots of reasons. Better view of the rocket and any possible problems, easier schedule on the workers (especially if launch preps run long, chance to show the "glorious democratic people's achievements" on the evening news, etc. I assume launching during the day would be the default for anything that doesn't have orbital constraints.

[Ronsmytheiii]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/03/26/north.korea.us.ships/index.html

U.S. Navy ships capable of shooting down ballistic missiles are being moved to the Sea of Japan, a Navy spokesman said.

The move came as North Korea was preparing for an expected rocket launch next month.

Later Thursday, Japan announced it was ready to fire on the rocket if any part of it enters Japanese airspace.

[kevin-rf]

Ouch ... Guess as Biden said before the election, Obama will have his first test.

Has the Aegis carried out a boost phase intercept before?