Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012

[Jim]

Aircraft can carry NBC warheads.  What about clusterbombs, napalm, and fuel air explosives? they can be as bad as some small NBC warheads (especially targeted on civilian.   It is not the gun, it's who points it and at whom.  We can stray of topic, but this goes back to WWII with firebombing and Bomber Command (sorry) insisting on hitting civil targets. I guess you took the wrong career path and had to get off.  "veteran"  doesn't qualify you anymore than the others on this site.

the only info spysat would provide on an ABM system is its location, which can be found in open source documents.

"serious production-related restraints" where are these?  There is none.  Anyone can build a rocket.  Just have to do it with indigeous personnel and with your own info.

There are other warheads that LVs can launch

"ICBM industry's manipulations of NASA", aside from the ATK (sorry, need to stop here for a second and just say that I have to use stupid words to get my point across. I know that means I must have a weak argument, but that's why I use bad words). but really coming from the Admin, there is none of this.  More of conspiracy bs.

[josh_simonson]

I added NBC (nuclear, biological or chemical) to the acronym list.  Took me a while to figure it out, 'NBC' and 'crime against humanity' made me brainlock on "Fear Factor" for some reason.  

Unless their launch were aimed north (towards the US) any spysat they'd be launching would be unable to observe alaska because it would be in too low of an inclination.  They're probably most concerned with being able to monitor their border since that's where most of the weapons pointed at north korea are located - they'd like to know where to aim their NBC shells and IRBMs.  Judging from the level of projected intent with these launch preparations, their long range missiles are still a long way from being a credible threat to anyone.

[kevin-rf]

Launching a complicated spy sat as the first payload is a bold move. An engineering test payload would make more sense ... but this is North Korea.

I wonder, North Korea is a sovereign nation. Are they able to buy sat imaging products on the open market? Spot, Landsat, digiglobe, geoeye, ect.

If they are not, it would be a good incentive. The old trust but verify. Giving them the means to verify no troop build ups are going on.

[publiusr]

Links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taepodong-1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taepodong-2

http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/taedong2.htm
http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/taedong1.htm
http://www.astronautix.com/stages/taeong12.htm
http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/view.php?StoryID=20060623-114450-6993r

I wonder if this one has 'zip' propellants--a little worse than standard hypergols. I didn't think anyone used pentaborane anymore.

kevin-rf - 25/6/2006  11:02 PM

You know charles Vick ( http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/staff/vick.htm ) is keeping a running comentary ( http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/dprk/2006/060625-nkir271.htm ) on this test. What is in the public domain, what is missing, and when they can gleam from public domain sources.

If it is a space launch attempt I think we will have some interesting discussions.

It is interesting (right or wrong) that we keep on seeing articles in the press that a shoot down is improbable...

He had some nice drawings--and he left FAS with PIKE IIRC--and he lost the right to his drawings--or so I heard.

[Rusty_Barton]

North Korea has quietly built (a new, more capable) long-range missile base
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080910/ap_on_go_ot/north_korea_missiles

[Olaf]

Thank you for that, itīs very interesting.

[Liss]

Well, are these facilities part of the initial Musudan range or not?

http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=40.855334,129.66625&spn=0.002946,0.004764&t=k&z=18
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=40.852697,129.679677&spn=0.002946,0.004764&t=k&z=18

[edkyle99]

A "heads up", in case this turns out to be a satellite launch attempt rather than a missile test.

"North Korea appears to be readying missile test"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090211/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_missile

 - Ed Kyle

[William Graham]

A "heads up", in case this turns out to be a satellite launch attempt rather than a missile test.

I was thinking about that as well. They might try to launch a satellite ahead of South Korea, who are currently scheduled to attempt a launch (with Russian assistance) later this year.

[conquermars]

http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2901087

All signs point to an early launch of missile by North

[hop]

I was thinking about that as well. They might try to launch a satellite ahead of South Korea, who are currently scheduled to attempt a launch (with Russian assistance) later this year.

This crossed my mind too. Iran launching their first satellite on a vehicle that is based on North Korean technology could provide a bit of extra incentive.

Doing a satellite launch would also allow them to avoid the worst of the diplomatic backlash of a long range missile launch, while still sending roughly the same message about technical capability. Of course, they are pretty fond of brinksmanship, so it's hard to say whether they would prefer the more subtle route...

edit: N Korea claims 'space programme'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7891883.stm

[William Graham]

North Korea have announced they are preparing to launch a satellite.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/NEWKHSITE/data/html_dir/2009/02/17/200902170039.asp

This may be accurate, or a cover for a missile test, so we'll have to wait and see

[William Graham]

According to a news website, South Korean intelligence reports suggest the launch may be planned for 25 February. Given the title of the article, I don't know how reliable the source is.

http://www.speroforum.com/a/18128/North-Korea-ready-to-launch-nuclear-warheads

[Ronsmytheiii]

Some diagrams of the Taepodong-2 launch pad at Musudan-ri courtesy of Global Security:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/nodong.htm

[Ronsmytheiii]

Daily NK has stated that the name of the satellite is Kwangmyungsung-2, however take this with a grain of salt due to the fact that it is not exactly an unbiased source:

http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk00400&num=4570

According to the NKIS report, the Kwangmyungsung-2, allegedly a communications satellite, was developed by the Institute of Electronic War under the Academy of Sciences for Defense.

[edkyle99]

A "heads up", in case this turns out to be a satellite launch attempt rather than a missile test.

I was thinking about that as well. They might try to launch a satellite ahead of South Korea, who are currently scheduled to attempt a launch (with Russian assistance) later this year.

Now North Korea is saying that it plans a satellite attempt.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090224/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_missile

 - Ed Kyle

[JimO]

A new spurt of official NorKorean statements that they do intend to launch a satellite soon -- maybe within days. Time to pay more attention...

[astropl]

Official KCNA info (http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2009/200902/news24/20090224-06ee.html):

February 24. 2009 Juche 98
 
Preparations for Launch of Experimental Communications Satellite in Full Gear
 
Pyongyang, February 24 (KCNA) -- A spokesman for the Korean Committee of Space Technology issued the following statement on Feb. 24:

Outer space is an asset common to mankind and its use for peaceful purposes has become a global trend.

The DPRK has steadily pushed ahead with researches and development for putting satellites into orbit by its own efforts and technology since the 1980s, pursuant to its government's policy for the development of space and its peaceful use.

In this course, scientists and technicians of the DPRK registered such great success as putting its first experimental satellite Kwangmyongsong-1 into orbit at one try in August 1998.

Over the past decade since then a dynamic struggle has been waged to put the nation's space science and technology on a higher level, bringing about signal progress in the field of satellite launch.

The DPRK envisages launching practical satellites for communications, prospecting of natural resources and weather forecast, etc. essential for the economic development of the country in a few years to come and putting their operation on a normal footing at the first phase of the state long-term plan for space development.

The preparations for launching experimental communications satellite Kwangmyongsong-2 by means of delivery rocket Unha-2 are now making brisk headway at Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground in Hwadae County, North Hamgyong Province.

When this satellite launch proves successful, the nation's space science and technology will make another giant stride forward in building an economic power.

[8900]

My bet is that it will be a intermediate to long range missile test
and even if it is really a satellite launcher, remember the equality rocket=missile

[Phillip Clark]

My bet is that it will be a intermediate to long range missile test
and even if it is really a satellite launcher, remember the equality rocket=missile

In which case the North Koreans will be following the examples set by the Soviet Union, the United States, France, China, UK, India, Israel and Iran.   Not bad company for the North Koreans to be with!!