Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013  (Read 82373 times)

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #140 on: 04/12/2019 03:15 pm »
Resurs-P nr. 1 was used in experiments to take pictures of other space objects. This was mentioned by RKTs Progress deputy chief designer Lev Shilov during a meeting on space debris organized by the Russian Academy of Sciences' Space Council on 27 June 2018. The PowerPoint presentation is here:

http://sovet.cosmos.ru/sessions/2018-06-27
(click on presentation nr. 4)

In an audio recording of Shilov's presentation he can be heard saying that the experiments were conducted in 2013-2014. One slide shows pictures of another space object taken from distances of 537, 404 and 434 km on 21, 23 and 27 January. The year is not mentioned, but with Resurs-P nr. 1 having been launched in June 2013, they must have been taken in January 2014. When talking about this particular slide, Shilov said the object photographed was "another Resurs-P type satellite". However, Resurs-P nr. 2 was not launched until December 2014, so he may have been referring to Resurs-DK (the precursor of Resurs-P) or a satellite having similar dimensions as Resurs-P. The pictures do show an irregularly shaped object that looks more like a piece of space junk than an actual satellite.

Shilov went on to talk about the use of the next-generation Resurs-PM satellites to take pictures of both artificial satellites and astronomical objects. Both of the satellite's optical payloads (OEK-VR and ShOK-PM/Argus) will be used for this purpose aside from main task of photographing the Earth's surface.
 

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #141 on: 12/11/2021 10:38 pm »
A source on the NK forum has pointed out that no Resurs-P images have been published online since early September. The last one published was dated September 4.
http://www.ntsomz.ru/news/news_center/resurs-p_images_gallery_202109_nvrp1

Another sign of trouble comes from this website, which provides daily updates on the amount of territory photographed by Russia's remote sensing satellites:
http://www.ntsomz.ru/square

This shows that nothing has been photographed by Resurs-P since September 6.
The website refers only to imagery received from "the Resurs-P system", without specifying the satellite number. However, Resurs-P2 was taken out of service in November 2018 (as reported by Roscosmos at the time) and the same NK source says Resurs-P3 (which had already been miraculously revived after a significant failure) definitively failed failed last spring. This would mean that the sole surviving satellite (until last September) was Resurs-P1.

It looks like a replacement satellite will not be launched any time soon. According to procurement documentation published by Roscosmos early this year, Resurs-P4 will not be delivered to Baikonur until November 2022. The NK source says the delays in the launch of Resurs-P4 are the result of the Western sanctions, which are making it impossible to finish construction of the high-speed radio system needed to downlink the images to the ground.


Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #142 on: 01/20/2022 09:24 am »
https://tass.ru/kosmos/13463387

The general director of RKTs Progress Dmitriy Baranov has confirmed that Resurs-P1 was decommissioned in late December 2021 because of "the failure of its on-board equipment". It operated for 8.5 years, which was 3.5 years longer than expected, according to Baranov. As for the status of Resurs-P3, he only said it was "still in orbit". Inside sources on the NK forum are saying that telemetry is still being received from the satellite, but that it is most likely no longer transmitting images. Resurs-P3 was not included in a list of operational Russian satellites published by Roscosmos early this year.

Baranov also said that Resurs-P4 "has been assembled and is undergoing testing". However, no firm launch date has been set yet, because it is still awaiting the delivery of more equipment, possibly this spring. Resurs-P5 is being assembled and is expected to be delivered to the launch site in late 2023. The delays in these Resurs-P launches are probably the direct result of Western sanctions that are hampering the supply of foreign-built electronic components to Russians satellite manufacturers. 

Offline SnowyOwl

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #143 on: 06/27/2024 01:13 pm »
https://twitter.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1806140666222948679

Quote
LeoLabs has detected a debris-generating event in Low Earth Orbit.

Early indications are that a non-operational Russian spacecraft, Resurs P1 (SATNO 39186), released a number of fragments between 13:05 UTC 26 June and 00:51 UTC 27 June.
« Last Edit: 06/28/2024 03:19 am by zubenelgenubi »

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #144 on: 06/27/2024 09:37 pm »
The break-up of Resurs-P1 has been confirmed by US Space Command:

https://www.spacecom.mil/Newsroom/News/Article-Display/Article/3819238/press-release-break-up-of-russian-owned-space-object/

Quote
U.S. Space Command can confirm the break-up of RESURS-P1 (#39186), a Russian-owned decommissioned satellite, that occurred in low-Earth orbit on 26 June 2024 at approximately 1000 MT (1600 UTC) resulting in over 100 pieces of trackable debris.

USSPACECOM has observed no immediate threats and is continuing to conduct routine conjunction assessments to support the safety and sustainability of the space domain. As such, USSPACECOM has notified commercial, governmental, Allied and Partner organizations via Space-Track.org, to include Russia as the satellite owner.

The break-up event forced ISS astronauts to briefly take shelter aboard their attached transport vehicles yesterday.

Three possible explanations for the break-up have been given by Jonathan McDowell in this New York Times story:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/science/russian-satellite-debris-iss.html

Quote
Dr. McDowell said an internal explosion of a long-dead battery inside the satellite could be one explanation. Another worrisome possibility is that Resurs P1 collided with a piece of space junk that was orbiting Earth.
...
A third, and the most concerning, possibility is that the event was deliberate. In 2021, Russia intentionally fired a missile at one of its own defunct satellites in orbit...   But there are reasons to doubt it was a deliberate explosion, Dr. McDowell said. Russia issued an advance notice to air personnel before the 2021 test so that flight operators could avoid the air above the launch site. (Dr. McDowell has not heard any word of a similar notice given this time.) And at around 13,000 pounds, Resurs P1 is a fairly large satellite — which makes it less than ideal for missile testing because of all the scraps it would create. 

Still, the satellite did pass over a Russian launch site that could be used to fire missiles during the window of time that the event was said to have occurred, according to Dr. McDowell. “So I can’t rule it out at this point,” he said, “but I also can’t rule in.”

As can be seen in an image posted by Jonathan on X, the orbital plane of Resurs-P1 was close to Plesetsk at the reported time of the event. However, no NOTAMs were issued for the launch of a Nudol ASAT missile from Plesetsk, nor does anything resembling an ASAT test seem to have been detected by US assets. So at this time the most likely explanations are an internal problem with the satellite or a collision with space debris.

The latest available data showed Resurs-P1 in a 350x363 km orbit with an inclination of 97.01°. The orbit had been slowly decaying since the satellite was decommissioned in late 2021. Whatever crippled Resurs-P1 seems to have been serious enough to prevent it from being de-orbited. Resurs-P2, another defunct Resurs-P satellite, has not been de-orbited either and is now in a 384x391 km orbit. Resurs-P3 was de-orbited after completing rendezvous and proximity operations with Kosmos-2562 last year.


Offline jcm

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #145 on: 06/27/2024 09:48 pm »
I was a bit nervous about even brining up the ASAT possibility but since I would definitely have ruled it out if the ground track wasn't anywhere near Plesetsk, the fact that it was fairly well aligned seems worth recording. I agree though that
failure-to-passivate or minor debris hit are the most likely causes.
-----------------------------

Jonathan McDowell
http://planet4589.org

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #146 on: 06/27/2024 11:40 pm »
I was a bit nervous about even brining up the ASAT possibility but since I would definitely have ruled it out if the ground track wasn't anywhere near Plesetsk, the fact that it was fairly well aligned seems worth recording.

Yes, it's an interesting coincidence. It was definitely worth mentioning. Another ASAT system that was to be deployed at Plesetsk was Burevestnik, the one that was to be launched from the belly of a MiG-31. But its current status is unclear and it's most likely not a direct-ascent system, but co-orbital, so should have been detected.

Since this is a major break-up event that is getting quite a lot of international attention, it'll be interesting to see if Roscosmos comes up with some kind of official explanation. I wouldn't hold my breath though.

Offline kony1717

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #147 on: 06/29/2024 02:02 am »
What about a Direct Energy Weapon ASAT test?

Offline kony1717

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #148 on: 06/29/2024 02:15 am »
 :)

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #149 on: 06/29/2024 09:18 am »
What about a Direct Energy Weapon ASAT test?

You're referring to Kalina, a laser system that is part of the Krona space surveillance complex in the North Caucasus. All indications are that it is not intended to destroy satellites, but only to dazzle their optical sensors. All the details are here:
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4416/1

Online Blackstar

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #150 on: 06/29/2024 09:09 pm »
So is there no news on this? No statement from the Russians? Nothing?

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #151 on: 06/29/2024 11:32 pm »
So is there no news on this? No statement from the Russians? Nothing?

No statement from Roscosmos on the cause of the breakup. The TASS news agency did report the breakup on Thursday, quoting only the statement by US Space Command.  Another TASS report on Friday said that according to Roscosmos the satellite had been taken out of service two years ago. It also mentioned a Pentagon press briefing where a question was asked about the breakup.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3822045/deputy-pentagon-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-holds-a-press-briefing/


Quote
Q: — the disintegration of this Russian satellite. Is there any indication that that satellite came apart as a result of some kind of Russian anti-satellite test?

MS. SINGH: As of right now, we're still evaluating why this satellite came apart. Satellite breakups can result from a variety of different cases, but right now, we just don't have an assessment of what broke this one apart, which I believe happened on June 26th.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #152 on: 06/30/2024 03:14 pm »
The main satellite body still appears to be intact, but is tumbling quickly, according to observations made by Sybilla Technologies, a Polish company that operates a series of robotic optical observatories to monitor objects in space.

Quote
2024-06-27. Our team addressed an early morning EU SST report on a fragmentation event of non-active Russian satellite RESURS-P1 (39186) in LEO at 350km altitude. We cannot yet confirm optically 180+ objects as reported by radar observations from LeoLabs, but the satellite appears to be rotating with a 2-3 seconds period (as seen in the movie; 150 frames, 0.5s exposure time).

Video is here:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sybilla-technologies_cleanspace-zerodebris-spacetraffic-activity-7212551150082940928-4icj

Online Blackstar

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #153 on: 07/01/2024 12:15 pm »
No statement from Roscosmos on the cause of the breakup. The TASS news agency did report the breakup on Thursday, quoting only the statement by US Space Command.  Another TASS report on Friday said that according to Roscosmos the satellite had been taken out of service two years ago. It also mentioned a Pentagon press briefing where a question was asked about the breakup.


Does it even count as irony when the Russian state media only quotes the US Pentagon about a Russian satellite?

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #154 on: 07/02/2024 12:59 am »
Well this is interesting.


Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #155 on: 07/08/2024 08:03 pm »
LeoLabs reports that the break-up of Resurs-P1 was most likely the result of a "low-intensity explosion" caused by either a debris impact or an internal event.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7214336324361670656

Quote
On June 26 EST, we first shared publicly that we had detected a debris-generating event in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). A non-operational Russian spacecraft, #ResursP1 (SATNO 39186), released several fragments between 13:05 UTC 26 June and 00:51 UTC 27 June. The ~6,000 kg satellite was in a nearly circular orbit at ~355 km at the time of the event.
 
After several days of tracking and studying the resulting debris cloud, we estimate that the event created at least ~250 fragments and the cloud extended to at least 500 km.
 
What caused the breakup?
 
To identify the most likely root cause of this event we leveraged detailed measurements by our radars, in-house expertise, and our breakup assessment tool. This tool uses data and contextual information, such as the fragment size distribution, symmetry of the cloud, energetics of the cloud, and state of the parent object to ascertain the most likely cause for a fragmentation event.
 
While much of the debris cloud has yet to be analyzed fully, our preliminary assessment concludes that the most likely cause of the event is a low intensity explosion.
 
This explosion could’ve been triggered by external stimuli such as an impact by a small fragment (not currently cataloged) or an internal structural failure leading to a propulsion system failure. We will continue to analyze the remnants from this event and update our assessment, as appropriate.
 
What’s the significance?
 
This event demonstrates the ongoing risk of defunct spacecraft in orbit. Resurs P1 was decommissioned in 2021 and likely going to de-orbit naturally later this year due to atmospheric drag. There are over 2,500 long-lived intact derelict hardware (i.e., abandoned rocket bodies and non-operational payloads) that may suffer a similar fate to Resurs P1 over time.
 
In addition, this event highlights the importance of quickly tracking, cataloging, and characterizing fragments accurately and frequently to understand the collision risk to surrounding objects and to aid in forensics of on-orbit events.
 
Based on our analysis, any spacecraft operating up to 500 km in altitude may be affected by the resulting fragments from this event. Within this region of #LEO, many CubeSats, scientific satellites, and human spaceflight operate. Due to the low orbit of this debris cloud, we estimate it will be weeks to months before the collision hazard has passed.

Online Targeteer

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #156 on: 07/10/2024 10:31 am »
17 pieces of debris have been cataloged at Space-track.org
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b launch with Resurs-P1 - June 25, 2013
« Reply #157 on: 07/30/2024 09:25 am »
60215    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030D   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-19   87.96   96.94   185   162   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60216    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030E   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR      91.51   96.91   395   303   LARGE   TLE | OMM
60217    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030F   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR      92.15   96.93   432   328   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60218    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030G   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-12   89.12   96.96   247   215   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60219    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030H   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-05   88.27   96.96   200   178   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60220    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030J   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR      88.10   96.87   194   167   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60221    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030K   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-13   88.82   96.97   225   207   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60222    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030L   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR      89.54   97.00   259   245   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60223    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030M   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-07   88.41   96.98   207   186   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60224    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030N   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-12   88.93   96.99   232   211   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60225    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030P   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR      88.25   96.94   200   176   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60226    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030Q   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-07   88.23   96.98   197   177   LARGE   TLE | OMM
60227    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030R   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-13   88.10   96.98   190   171   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60228    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030S   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-09   88.01   97.00   184   167   MEDIUM   TLE | OMM
60229    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030T   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-23   87.85   96.96   181   155   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60230    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030U   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-20   87.68   97.02   169   150   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60231    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030V   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-04   89.58   97.01   263   244   SMALL   TLE | OMM
60232    RESURS P1 DEB   2013-030W   DEBRIS   CIS   2013-06-25   TTMTR   2024-07-06   88.88   97.14   241   197   SMALL   TLE | OMM
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

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