LeoLabs has detected a debris-generating event in Low Earth Orbit. Early indications are that a non-operational Russian spacecraft, Resurs P1 (SATNO 39186), released a number of fragments between 13:05 UTC 26 June and 00:51 UTC 27 June.
U.S. Space Command can confirm the break-up of RESURS-P1 (#39186), a Russian-owned decommissioned satellite, that occurred in low-Earth orbit on 26 June 2024 at approximately 1000 MT (1600 UTC) resulting in over 100 pieces of trackable debris.USSPACECOM has observed no immediate threats and is continuing to conduct routine conjunction assessments to support the safety and sustainability of the space domain. As such, USSPACECOM has notified commercial, governmental, Allied and Partner organizations via Space-Track.org, to include Russia as the satellite owner.
Dr. McDowell said an internal explosion of a long-dead battery inside the satellite could be one explanation. Another worrisome possibility is that Resurs P1 collided with a piece of space junk that was orbiting Earth....A third, and the most concerning, possibility is that the event was deliberate. In 2021, Russia intentionally fired a missile at one of its own defunct satellites in orbit... But there are reasons to doubt it was a deliberate explosion, Dr. McDowell said. Russia issued an advance notice to air personnel before the 2021 test so that flight operators could avoid the air above the launch site. (Dr. McDowell has not heard any word of a similar notice given this time.) And at around 13,000 pounds, Resurs P1 is a fairly large satellite — which makes it less than ideal for missile testing because of all the scraps it would create. Still, the satellite did pass over a Russian launch site that could be used to fire missiles during the window of time that the event was said to have occurred, according to Dr. McDowell. “So I can’t rule it out at this point,” he said, “but I also can’t rule in.”
I was a bit nervous about even brining up the ASAT possibility but since I would definitely have ruled it out if the ground track wasn't anywhere near Plesetsk, the fact that it was fairly well aligned seems worth recording.
What about a Direct Energy Weapon ASAT test?
So is there no news on this? No statement from the Russians? Nothing?
Q: — the disintegration of this Russian satellite. Is there any indication that that satellite came apart as a result of some kind of Russian anti-satellite test?MS. SINGH: As of right now, we're still evaluating why this satellite came apart. Satellite breakups can result from a variety of different cases, but right now, we just don't have an assessment of what broke this one apart, which I believe happened on June 26th.
2024-06-27. Our team addressed an early morning EU SST report on a fragmentation event of non-active Russian satellite RESURS-P1 (39186) in LEO at 350km altitude. We cannot yet confirm optically 180+ objects as reported by radar observations from LeoLabs, but the satellite appears to be rotating with a 2-3 seconds period (as seen in the movie; 150 frames, 0.5s exposure time).
No statement from Roscosmos on the cause of the breakup. The TASS news agency did report the breakup on Thursday, quoting only the statement by US Space Command. Another TASS report on Friday said that according to Roscosmos the satellite had been taken out of service two years ago. It also mentioned a Pentagon press briefing where a question was asked about the breakup.
On June 26 EST, we first shared publicly that we had detected a debris-generating event in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). A non-operational Russian spacecraft, #ResursP1 (SATNO 39186), released several fragments between 13:05 UTC 26 June and 00:51 UTC 27 June. The ~6,000 kg satellite was in a nearly circular orbit at ~355 km at the time of the event. After several days of tracking and studying the resulting debris cloud, we estimate that the event created at least ~250 fragments and the cloud extended to at least 500 km. What caused the breakup? To identify the most likely root cause of this event we leveraged detailed measurements by our radars, in-house expertise, and our breakup assessment tool. This tool uses data and contextual information, such as the fragment size distribution, symmetry of the cloud, energetics of the cloud, and state of the parent object to ascertain the most likely cause for a fragmentation event. While much of the debris cloud has yet to be analyzed fully, our preliminary assessment concludes that the most likely cause of the event is a low intensity explosion. This explosion could’ve been triggered by external stimuli such as an impact by a small fragment (not currently cataloged) or an internal structural failure leading to a propulsion system failure. We will continue to analyze the remnants from this event and update our assessment, as appropriate. What’s the significance? This event demonstrates the ongoing risk of defunct spacecraft in orbit. Resurs P1 was decommissioned in 2021 and likely going to de-orbit naturally later this year due to atmospheric drag. There are over 2,500 long-lived intact derelict hardware (i.e., abandoned rocket bodies and non-operational payloads) that may suffer a similar fate to Resurs P1 over time. In addition, this event highlights the importance of quickly tracking, cataloging, and characterizing fragments accurately and frequently to understand the collision risk to surrounding objects and to aid in forensics of on-orbit events. Based on our analysis, any spacecraft operating up to 500 km in altitude may be affected by the resulting fragments from this event. Within this region of #LEO, many CubeSats, scientific satellites, and human spaceflight operate. Due to the low orbit of this debris cloud, we estimate it will be weeks to months before the collision hazard has passed.