Chinese crewed lunar program

[JohnFornaro]

Interesting article in the WaPo yesterday about China's space plans:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/22/AR2011012203747.html

As China eyes the stars, U.S. watches warily

By Keith B. Richburg
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, January 23, 2011

IN BEIJING China's grand ambitions extend literally to the moon, with the country now embarked on a multi-pronged program to establish its own global navigational system, launch a space laboratory and put a Chinese astronaut on the moon within the next decade.

[Liss]

So Washington Post is yellow press now. Because Chinese do not eye Moon in ten years. What they did approve is a Mir-like space station by 2020, and this would take all the manned spaceflight resources.

[aquanaut99]

For the love of God, let's stop this "Red Chinese Moon!" scare some ill-informed journalists seem intent on launching.

China will not land a man on the moon by 2020. China's manned space program is very slow, deliberate and measured. Let's not forget they only launched 3 manned spacecraft during the last decade. And the next big step is planned for this and next year: Tiangong-1/SZ-8/9/10, which is nothing more than a recreation of 1970s Salyut. And China's objective this decade is a spacestation by 2020.

Even if China's manned space program is likely to pick up speed once the Hainan launch center and CZ-5 become operational (2015), there is really no chance (and no intention either) of putting a man on the moon by 2020. There were some rumours about a tentative date (2025), but nothing official, and even that would be extremely ambitious.

[Jason1701]

Even if they were committed to going to the Moon this decade, they'd be liable to the same schedule slips and cost increases that Constellation saw.

[Downix]

Their capsules are lunar capable, they have a lander under development and their HLV, we don't know. Frankly, they may be slow, but it is more than possible.

[nickyp]

Got numbers and sources to back those up?

China will not be on the moon for 2020, as has been said before, a 20 ton space station is on the cards with Tiangong sized modules.

[Namechange User]

I'm not sure why people are so quick to downplay the Chinese and their potential goals and accomplishments in the coming decade.  I see this in a lot of places on the internet and it is easy to say all "we're all friends", "what's the threat", "where is the proof", etc. 

I really do not understand this mentality and I hope this is not an indication of the mass public's perception because that usually leads to the "gotcha moment".  It's not like China is an open society.  It's not like they are not actively, although they will officially tell you otherwise, preparing to go head-to-head with the United States.  Their military is building up, they are actively engaging in cyber warfare against US systems, they are keeping their currency deliberately de-valued in order to hurt our economy, they are "stealing" US products, etc.   

The recent unveiling of their "stealth" fighter should tell you something about this possibility.  It was not expected by US officials.  Hell, it was even timed for when the SecDef was there.  Shouldn't that say something?

In the end, maybe they are not doing any of this.  Yet, given the above, the "proof" that so many demand has a certain irony because no one can "prove" they are not doing anything in secret and they don’t have these interests and desires.  After all, their development will be much shorter.  The head wind with respect to that development that the USA and others fought against is no longer there and through "alternate procurement means" and say, Russia, they can have it much quicker than many like to give credit or choose to ignore. 

Instead, there is nothing wrong in this case with assumption and being prepared.  The current POTUS and others need to stop sucking-up to China and realize this. 

[Downix]

Quite correct OV.

This is what we do know:

They will have a vehicle superior to our Delta IV within 2 years.  Don't buy the claim it's just slightly weaker, I've done the math.  They've presented 4 booster assisted configurations, of which the boosters used as off of smaller rockets.  They have not presented any of the LM5 configurations utilizing the LM5 first stage w/ high-thrust engine configuration.  The LM5 development photographs show that the LM5 is fully capable of this clustered approach, similar to out 5 CBC DeltaIV.  By my math, this makes the LM5 capable of lifting 33mT into orbit.  Their 2nd/3rd stage unit weighs, fully loaded, 25mT.  Their capsule fully loaded is 8mT.  25 + 8 == 33.  So, in short, the LM5, in it's maximum configuration, is capable of lifting a fully loaded capsule with a fully loaded upper stage into orbit.  The US has already demonstrated in-orbit capability and maneuvering.  The Space Station is a great place to test in-orbit rendezvous. 

Let's add all of this up: 
Ability to rendezvous - check
Ability to bring a fully manned capsule to the Lunar area - check

All we are missing now is the landing and return part.  Landing will be tested next year with their robotic exploration team.  Return will be tested in 2014/2015 with their lunar sample return team.  At that point, with those systems tested, frankly, what is to stop them?

[spacex]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

While the Chinese have come a long way in a short period of time, they have a long way to go in developing the technology and perhaps more crucially the requisite experience. Their manned space station is already a very ambitious project and consume much of their resources for the next decade.

[Namechange User]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

Really?  Because "western reporters" have total access to high ranking Chinese officials?  Because these Chinese officials are absolutely certain to tell the truth?  Because the history of these Chinese officials is so pure that there is no logical way to assume that they wouldn't be telling you the absolute truth in every aspect?

Again, the whole "open society" thing.....

[spacex]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

Really?  Because "western reporters" have total access to high ranking Chinese officials?  Because these Chinese officials are absolutely certain to tell the truth?  Because the history of these Chinese officials is so pure that there is no logical way to assume that they wouldn't be telling you the absolute truth in every aspect?

Again, the whole "open society" thing.....

No, my concern is that western reporters have not even attempted to substantiate their pieces by using acknowledged experts in the US on the Chinese space program such as Joan Johnson-Freese. These experts certainly have studied Chinese space program closely and would easily be able to tell fact from fiction.

[Namechange User]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

Really?  Because "western reporters" have total access to high ranking Chinese officials?  Because these Chinese officials are absolutely certain to tell the truth?  Because the history of these Chinese officials is so pure that there is no logical way to assume that they wouldn't be telling you the absolute truth in every aspect?

Again, the whole "open society" thing.....

No, my concern is that western reporters have not even attempted to substantiate their pieces from acknowledged experts in the US on the Chinese space program such as Joan Johnson-Freese. These experts certainly have studied Chinese space program closely and would easily be able to tell fact from fiction.

I see.  Are these the same type of "experts" that also study the Chinese military, which of course controls their space program, who got caught with their britches down regarding the stealth fighter?

[spacex]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

Really?  Because "western reporters" have total access to high ranking Chinese officials?  Because these Chinese officials are absolutely certain to tell the truth?  Because the history of these Chinese officials is so pure that there is no logical way to assume that they wouldn't be telling you the absolute truth in every aspect?

Again, the whole "open society" thing.....

No, my concern is that western reporters have not even attempted to substantiate their pieces from acknowledged experts in the US on the Chinese space program such as Joan Johnson-Freese. These experts certainly have studied Chinese space program closely and would easily be able to tell fact from fiction.

I see.  Are these the same type of "experts" that also study the Chinese military, which of course controls their space program, who got caught with their britches down regarding the stealth fighter?

The stealth fighter was well known to be in development for at least 1-2 decades. It did not appear out of thin air, which is what you seem to be suggesting.
We are deviating from the main topic of discussion. That is China's manned moon plans, or more accurately the lack of such program.

[Namechange User]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

Really?  Because "western reporters" have total access to high ranking Chinese officials?  Because these Chinese officials are absolutely certain to tell the truth?  Because the history of these Chinese officials is so pure that there is no logical way to assume that they wouldn't be telling you the absolute truth in every aspect?

Again, the whole "open society" thing.....

No, my concern is that western reporters have not even attempted to substantiate their pieces from acknowledged experts in the US on the Chinese space program such as Joan Johnson-Freese. These experts certainly have studied Chinese space program closely and would easily be able to tell fact from fiction.

I see.  Are these the same type of "experts" that also study the Chinese military, which of course controls their space program, who got caught with their britches down regarding the stealth fighter?

The stealth fighter was well known to be in development for at least 1-2 decades. It did not appear out of thin air, which is what you seem to be suggesting.
We are deviating from the main topic of discussion. That is China's manned moon plans, or more accurately the lack of such program.

Um, ok. 

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/awst/2011/01/03/AW_01_03_2011_p18-279564.xml&headline=null&next=10

"One question that may go unanswered for a long time concerns the degree to which cyberespionage has aided the development of the J-20. U.S. defense industry cybersecurity experts have cited 2006—close to the date when the J-20 program would have started—as the point at which they became aware of what was later named the advanced persistent threat (APT), a campaign of cyberintrusion aimed primarily at military and defense industries and characterized by sophisticated infiltration and exfiltration techniques.

Dale Meyerrose, information security vice president for the Harris Corp. and former chief information officer for the director of national intelligence, told an Aviation Week cybersecurity conference in April 2010 that the APT had been little discussed outside the classified realm, up to that point, because “the vast majority of APT attacks are believed to come from a single country.”

Between 2009 and early 2010, Lockheed Martin found that “six to eight companies” among its subcontractors “had been totally compromised—e-mails, their networks, everything,” according to Chief Information Security Officer Anne Mullins."

Sure, no threat there at all.

Given your post history here is nearly 100% related to China, can you provide the absolute proof that China is being totally open and does not have these plans?  I figure turn about is fair play.  Thanks!

[aquanaut99]

Given your post history here is nearly 100% related to China, can you provide the absolute proof that China is being totally open and does not have these plans?  I figure turn about is fair play.  Thanks!

Personally, I am willing to put my hand in the fire that China will not land a man on the moon by 2020. I'd even be extremely surprised if they did it before 2025, although I don't doubt that they will eventually succeed (if they don't lose interest first).

Why? Like I said, because China's manned space program hasn't really accomplished that much during the last decade. They have reached the level of the Soviet Union ca 1969 (without the N1), but advanced no faster than what the Soviets did in the sixties (though with far fewer launches), even though they had all the knowledge available from the start and didn't have to research/figure it out first.

Also, as far as spying is concerned: How can it advance the cause of a manned moon-landing? All the info needed to replicate Apollo is freely available. And there is nothing that spying in the US could accomplish in this matter, since the USA is itself no longer capable / no longer has the know-how to land men on the moon...

[JMS]

It's obvious John Q. US public doesn't see MSF as a critical priority at this moment in time. So, I for one am cheering China on. Could be the best thing to happen to US manned spaceflight.

[Downix]

We are deviating from the main topic of discussion. That is China's manned moon plans, or more accurately the lack of such program.

The Chinese Government seems quite adamant that they have one, even have a nice website dedicated to it with pictures of the equipment to be used:

http://www.clep.org.cn/

One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?

They have completed the rocket to launch their space station, and the announcement states that it will be launched later this year.

[Namechange User]

Also, as far as spying is concerned: How can it advance the cause of a manned moon-landing? All the info needed to replicate Apollo is freely available. And there is nothing that spying in the US could accomplish in this matter, since the USA is itself no longer capable / no longer has the know-how to land men on the moon...

Who said they were going to replicate Apollo?  The Chinese are now building domestic airliners.  They didn't start with the Wright Flyer first.  See the parallels. 

[Downix]

Also, as far as spying is concerned: How can it advance the cause of a manned moon-landing? All the info needed to replicate Apollo is freely available. And there is nothing that spying in the US could accomplish in this matter, since the USA is itself no longer capable / no longer has the know-how to land men on the moon...

Who said they were going to replicate Apollo?  The Chinese are now building domestic airliners.  They didn't start with the Wright Flyer first.  See the parallels. 

Why would they want to replicate Apollo?  There are other, more cost-effective options for doing the same goals.  The Chinese seem to be aiming right at those options.

[aquanaut99]

One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?

They have completed the rocket to launch their space station, and the announcement states that it will be launched later this year.

Sorry, but I just had to laugh out loud when I read that.

How many times have we seen plans for bases on the moon, studies where to place them and so forth from NASA over the past few decades? And what did we get for it?

IIRC, in 1969 NASA had plans for bases on the moon, Mars and even a manned mission to Titan by the turn of the millenium...

Why should China be any different?