General Discussion > Polls Section
Which dedicated nanosat/microsat launcher will place a payload in orbit first?
jongoff:
I hadn't seen any polls yet for people to guess who they think will be the first company in the current batch of dedicated smallsat launch developers to successful orbit a payload for a paying customer. There are probably previous examples that people might cite (like Falcon 1), but for sake of this discussion we're talking about new launch vehicles that have not yet reached orbit.
You can vote for any of the candidates (or the "Other" option if you think it'll be someone I didn't list), and I'll keep this open for 60 days. I have it set to not show results until people have voted. You can say in your post who you voted for, but please no commenting on the distribution of votes overall (or posting pictures, etc) until after the voting is over.
Also, I would encourage people to vote first before reading everyone else's opinions. You're free to ignore this suggestion, but I'm interested in seeing people's opinions before they've had a chance to read what everyone else has to say. Also, if possible, please post at least a short note on why you picked who you did.
I know a lot of people have opinions here, but would be curious to see what the wisdom of crowds has to say in this case.
Thanks!
~Jon
jongoff:
I'll go first. While I have friends at many of these companies, at the current moment I think Rocket Labs is going to fly first. Their tech looks solid, they seem to have good financial backing, and are pursuing a relatively straighforward vehicle. Do I think they're overhyping how revolutionary their system is? Yeah. But I think they've got a good lead on the others.
If I were to pick a second place candidate, I'd likely say Virgin Galactic. I didn't put them first because I think that with their change in design and carrier vehicle, they have a lot of work to do. That said, they're fully funded, have some good people on their team, and are far enough into vehicle development that I expect they'll still beat others like Firefly or Generation Orbit.
~Jon
QuantumG:
To agree with RocketLab, they seem to have encountered the hurdle of "we did everything right and we still can't fly?!?" and are pushing on anyway. Of course, if their second launch site goes the way of the first I don't know what they'll do.
sdsds:
I have only a hunch to support my guess: Firefly will get to orbit first.
I'm thinking Rocket Labs will follow a path like Falcon 1 -- success in the end. Firefly will follow a path like Falcon 9.
Launcher One? A path somehow more like the DARPA hypersonic test vehicle, also called "Falcon" I think.
WizZifnab:
Is Super Strypi not a valid choice in this race?
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