Author Topic: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut  (Read 52644 times)

Online Chris Bergin

When is the first manned test flight planned?

2016. Reported on this very site, linked in the article you've just read (smug face ;) )....

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/06/spacexs-reisman-next-giant-leap-dragon-v2/
« Last Edit: 12/22/2014 07:29 pm by Chris Bergin »
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Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #41 on: 12/22/2014 07:24 pm »
I am not 100% sure but I believe that SpaceX has now completed CDR (milestones 13A through 13D) with the completion of milestone 13D. Reisman had stated in a presentation that 13B had been completed and the November commercial crew update seems to imply that meetings for 13C had also happened.

See this link which discusses Milestones 13D and 13B:
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/news/releases/2014/release-20141222b.html

Quote
SpaceX performed two milestones, its Dragon Primary Structure Qualification and Delta Crew Vehicle Critical Design Review, in November as part of its CCiCap agreement. Under that agreement, SpaceX also performed other critical design reviews of its systems and operations this year. The company continued to provide NASA with data in preparation for the company’s Certification Baseline Review under its CCtCap contract, which was approved this month.  SpaceX also closed out its CPC contract with NASA in 2014. Next year, SpaceX will perform two abort tests for its Crew Dragon spacecraft under its CCiCap agreement.

See this link which discusses Milestones 13C:
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/news/releases/2014/release-20141114.html

Quote
SpaceX held several CCiCap meetings with NASA, including one in August that covered the company’s launch and mission operations plans and the associated ground systems at Kennedy Space Center’s Launch Complex 39A. The company also held a series of technical interchange sessions with the agency’s spaceflight experts to discuss the intricacies of the progress, testing and plans associated with the Crew Dragon spacecraft and the Falcon 9 v 1.1 rocket.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2014 07:38 pm by yg1968 »

Offline happyflower

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #42 on: 12/22/2014 10:23 pm »
When is the first manned test flight planned?

2016. Reported on this very site, linked in the article you've just read (smug face ;) )....

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/06/spacexs-reisman-next-giant-leap-dragon-v2/

Sorry if this is a bit off topic, but if SpaceX is planning on doing a "manned" test flight in 2016, shouldn't there be something... about space suits... somewhere?

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #43 on: 12/22/2014 10:38 pm »
When is the first manned test flight planned?

2016. Reported on this very site, linked in the article you've just read (smug face ;) )....

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/06/spacexs-reisman-next-giant-leap-dragon-v2/

Sorry if this is a bit off topic, but if SpaceX is planning on doing a "manned" test flight in 2016, shouldn't there be something... about space suits... somewhere?
They did a couple of years ago... We had some pics on here; but they looked more like flight suits to me...
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Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #44 on: 12/22/2014 10:52 pm »
Great article Chris!

Offline Jcc

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #45 on: 12/22/2014 11:00 pm »
I’m really looking forward as to which spacecraft will be the first for its crewed orbital test flight. The first is going to get a lot of press especially if it is Dragon 2 for what I see as “media bias” as it makes for a better storey to cover in their eyes... Not really fair but that’s the way it’s probably going to play out... Good incentive for Elon to make it happen...

It really makes no difference to the program but of course only one company gets the gold, while the other gets the silver.

Unless Boeing is holding out on unannounced progress my bet is on Dragon 2 getting the gold. That's because of the way the entire competition was done. Each company was allowed to write its own milestones. SpaceX chose the more difficult ones that required creating and flying operational flight hardware while Boeing created lots of procedures and documentation and some really good boilerplate hardware to test some systems. ISTM that leaves Boeing at a disadvantage in that it now needs to create and prove the operational flight hardware that SpaceX has already accomplished. However it could also be that Boeing feels it can do the flight hardware faster than SpaceX because of its heritage capabilities. To me that's iffy but it could be.

I could be wrong, but that is my impression.

In Boeing's favor, they said from the beginning that they were using to the greatest extent possible proven hardware and designs (which many consider boring), so even though they are behind in terms of building flight hardware, the presumption is that when they do start building it there will be few surprises, and it will all go to according schedule.

Whereas SpaceX are going for a much more radical design, including designing and building a new compact and high performance engine, and although the CRS Dragon gave them a head start in hardware, and their CCiCAP goals put them further ahead (2 goals remain to be completed, however). We don't know what is holding up the pad abort, but if it is related to the performance and reliability of SuperDraco it could cause more delays. It could be a tortoise and hare scenario, although I am cheering for the hare.

Offline HailColumbia

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #46 on: 12/23/2014 12:02 am »
This is SpaceX you talking about and Elon's optimistic forecasts that always slip by a year or two.

Yeah, unlike NASA who have always been DEAD ON with their conservative forecasts.

So when is the next launch of a VentureStar up to Space Station Freedom?
-Steve

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #47 on: 12/23/2014 11:45 am »
In Boeing's favor, they said from the beginning that they were using to the greatest extent possible proven hardware and designs (which many consider boring), so even though they are behind in terms of building flight hardware, the presumption is that when they do start building it there will be few surprises, and it will all go to according schedule.

Whereas SpaceX are going for a much more radical design, including designing and building a new compact and high performance engine, and although the CRS Dragon gave them a head start in hardware, and their CCiCAP goals put them further ahead (2 goals remain to be completed, however). We don't know what is holding up the pad abort, but if it is related to the performance and reliability of SuperDraco it could cause more delays. It could be a tortoise and hare scenario, although I am cheering for the hare.

IIRC, SpaceX announced they had completed development and testing of SuperDraco before the Dragon 2 unveiling.  Unless they were lying, SuperDraco won't be holding anything up unless they discover some issue in flight that didn't show up in ground testing.

Offline deruch

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #48 on: 12/23/2014 10:14 pm »
In Boeing's favor, they said from the beginning that they were using to the greatest extent possible proven hardware and designs (which many consider boring), so even though they are behind in terms of building flight hardware, the presumption is that when they do start building it there will be few surprises, and it will all go to according schedule.

Whereas SpaceX are going for a much more radical design, including designing and building a new compact and high performance engine, and although the CRS Dragon gave them a head start in hardware, and their CCiCAP goals put them further ahead (2 goals remain to be completed, however). We don't know what is holding up the pad abort, but if it is related to the performance and reliability of SuperDraco it could cause more delays. It could be a tortoise and hare scenario, although I am cheering for the hare.

IIRC, SpaceX announced they had completed development and testing of SuperDraco before the Dragon 2 unveiling.  Unless they were lying, SuperDraco won't be holding anything up unless they discover some issue in flight that didn't show up in ground testing.


Or, in theory, there could be some difficulty encountered when mating the engines to the craft.  i.e. just because the SuperDracos were fully qualified before the unveiling doesn't mean that some integration issue hasn't delayed the aborts.  I don't personally believe that is the case and I have seen nothing that would suggest it though.
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Online Comga

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #49 on: 12/27/2014 12:10 am »
Over in the Dreamchaser discussion yg1968 posted a link to an AvWeek article on the NASA CtCCap decision process:

http://aviationweek.com/space/why-nasa-rejected-sierra-nevadas-commercial-crew-vehicle

From the article:  "While praising SpaceX's strong approach for incremental development and testing with risk reduction, Gerstenmaier expressed a worry that the company has "the least robust approach for addressing the actual specific feedback on Phase 1 products that are the foundation of certification in the second phase."  He added there could be a risk that "problems not yet understood, and design trades made late in the development process will result in the system not being certified and ready for missions in the needed timeframe.

I find this obviously true but quite alarming.  It is true in the sense that there is always the possibility that SpaceX could make a design trade that would take NASA too long to certify given the fixed duration of the driving need for transport.  What is bothering me is what seems to be a warning for SpaceX to stay in line.  It is also obvious that NASA has to take direction from the customer, but this says that NASA can make choices "their way", and any other way could be protracted to the point of being fatal.  "the least robust approach for addressing feedback" sounds like a slap in the face.  Who actually has "an approach" to that? 

edit: It sounds like a highly qualified "NASA approves" to me.
« Last Edit: 12/27/2014 12:17 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline cscott

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #50 on: 12/27/2014 12:23 am »
I was oddly reassured by that Gerstenmaier comment: to me it means that SpaceX is continuing to resist the "NASA way" and pursue its vision. NASA has a need for prompt crew transport. SpaceX has a need for cheap and reliable airplane-like crew transport. I'd much rather SpaceX achieve their goal, even if it slips the schedule a few years.  SpaceX should be doing just enough NASA-petting to keep the development dollars flowing. If NASA really needs its schedule kept, we all know it could allocate more dollars to do so. That it continues to starve commercial crew for dollars means that we should take its schedule-above-all mypoia with the appropriate grain of salt.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #51 on: 12/27/2014 06:20 pm »
From the article:  "While praising SpaceX's strong approach for incremental development and testing with risk reduction, Gerstenmaier expressed a worry that the company has "the least robust approach for addressing the actual specific feedback on Phase 1 products that are the foundation of certification in the second phase."

One explanation for this is that the other two companies roll over backwards at anything NASA asks them to change while SpaceX challenges them on it and argues with them about the best choices.  Gerstenmaier is a career NASA guy.  It wouldn't be surprising if he believed the NASA way was the best way and didn't like a company that didn't defer to NASA the way traditional contractors do.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #52 on: 12/27/2014 06:46 pm »
One explanation for this is that the other two companies roll over backwards at anything NASA asks them to change...

In a cost-plus environment, or where some other sort of reimbursement method for requirement changes is available (change orders, task orders, etc.), sure Boeing would be amiable to changes.  But if they have a fixed priced contract and the customer is suggesting they do something that adds cost, then no I don't see Boeing allowing that.  They are a smarter government contractor than that.

That's not to say that they wouldn't have already known how NASA wanted the CST-100 to be built, and that it's part of the reason why the CST-100 is so much more expensive (beyond just using the Atlas V).  I'd say Boeing and NASA are probably very much in sync with what NASA expects, so I think it's already baked into what Boeing is doing.

Quote
...while SpaceX challenges them on it and argues with them about the best choices.

Though SpaceX has personnel from throughout the aerospace industry, including NASA, they not only have their own way of developing hardware and software (and we don't know if it's superior or inferior), but they also have secondary markets for their crew vehicle that may be driving some of their decisions.  SpaceX may not do everything right, but it's good that they are challenging NASA on what the best way is.

Quote
Gerstenmaier is a career NASA guy.  It wouldn't be surprising if he believed the NASA way was the best way and didn't like a company that didn't defer to NASA the way traditional contractors do.

I think the natural inclination is to believe that NASA is the premier institution for anything space related, and in some ways they probably are.  But not all of the institutional knowledge for the entire aerospace sector resides with them, and quite a bit resides in the industry portion, so I think the Commercial Cargo and Crew efforts have been very important not only for NASA's support needs, but also for NASA to see what can be done outside of NASA.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline clongton

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #53 on: 12/28/2014 01:57 am »
SpaceX is much more like the NASA of the 1960's than today's NASA is. The people at the top have been there forever and have allowed bureaucratic rigamortis to set in. It must pain them to see themselves of decades past in the faces of the engineers at Hawthorne.
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Offline JBF

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #54 on: 12/28/2014 02:14 am »
They don't have the option or freedom of being like SpaceX.
« Last Edit: 12/28/2014 01:31 pm by JBF »
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Offline Carl G

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #55 on: 12/28/2014 03:57 pm »
Off topic conversation removed after moderator warning was ignored.

Offline kfsorensen

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #56 on: 12/28/2014 04:09 pm »
OK, in an attempt to tie in ever more directly with the original article, I quote from that article:

Quote
While the near-term importance of returning a domestic crew launch capability to the United States is obvious, the funding to achieve that goal has been placed on a low calorie diet when compared to some of NASA’s more obese flagship projects, such as SLS, Orion and even the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).

What is the near-term importance of returning to a domestic crew launch capability?  What will be lost to the US if the Russians suddenly say, no more flights to the ISS?  What will be lost to the US if the ISS ends up underwater in 2018 versus 2024?  Do these potential losses merit additional expenditures now?

Offline Hauerg

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #57 on: 12/28/2014 04:32 pm »
Thing is, CC does not get the requested money for the short term goal.
At the same time SLS and Orion get MORE than requested for their longer ranged goals.
And yes, it does make sense to have crew capability before ISS is dumped.
Or would you prefer that CC came online, whene there is no mor ISS?

Offline rcoppola

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #58 on: 12/28/2014 04:36 pm »
OK, in an attempt to tie in ever more directly with the original article, I quote from that article:

Quote
While the near-term importance of returning a domestic crew launch capability to the United States is obvious, the funding to achieve that goal has been placed on a low calorie diet when compared to some of NASA’s more obese flagship projects, such as SLS, Orion and even the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).

What is the near-term importance of returning to a domestic crew launch capability?  What will be lost to the US if the Russians suddenly say, no more flights to the ISS?  What will be lost to the US if the ISS ends up underwater in 2018 versus 2024?  Do these potential losses merit additional expenditures now?
The context of that quote is "parity" of funding, not an either or. For instance, you're questions seem to be exclusive to CC and ISS. But one could just as easily replace "domestic crew launch capability" and "ISS" in your questions, with "SLS" and "Orion". For example: "Does the potential delays and/or losses of SLS/Orion merit additional expenditures now?"

I'm trying to discern if you're concern is the entirety of NASA HSF expenditures or just ISS and Commercial Cargo and Crew?

I suspect there are many that look upon SpaceX as the true inheritors of the original spirit and purpose of NASA. And as such, many inside NASA want them to succeed and this one approval among many to come will help facilitate that.
« Last Edit: 12/28/2014 04:46 pm by rcoppola »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: NASA approves SpaceX path towards crewed Dragon debut
« Reply #59 on: 12/28/2014 04:58 pm »
This is still off-topic. It's much broader than SpaceX, needs to be a different and/or new thread.
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