What will be the next nation In space?

[Celeritas]

Which nation will be next to join Russia, USA, and China in the independently-launched man-in-space club?

[Joffan]

I think the EU could launch a man easily, but they have not shown any interest. Japan could probably also do so quickly but are unlikely to get the funding; they operate on tight budgets. India will take maybe another 4-5 years, but I think they will be next. I don't see Malaysia getting there ahead of India unless they take a lot of risks.

[William Barton]

Assuming at least a Gemini-class spacecraft, and not getting a leg up from somebody already there, I think the path from program start to flight is about five years. At the moment, I think SpaceX is closest. That could change, though, if the Falcon 9 fails, and one of the other competing entities such as RpK succeeds, or one of the national space agencies suddenly gets a crash-program budget.

[NotGncDude]

William Barton - 3/5/2007  12:18 PM

Assuming at least a Gemini-class spacecraft, and not getting a leg up from somebody already there, I think the path from program start to flight is about five years. At the moment, I think SpaceX is closest. That could change, though, if the Falcon 9 fails, and one of the other competing entities such as RpK succeeds, or one of the national space agencies suddenly gets a crash-program budget.

I wouldn't count on RpK. Suppose that they get the money they need and build the K1 to resupply the ISS. The mods required to make it manned are massive. It's simply not designed for it. They are going for the unmanned resupply mainly.

[William Barton]

GncDude - 3/5/2007  12:28 PM

William Barton - 3/5/2007  12:18 PM

Assuming at least a Gemini-class spacecraft, and not getting a leg up from somebody already there, I think the path from program start to flight is about five years. At the moment, I think SpaceX is closest. That could change, though, if the Falcon 9 fails, and one of the other competing entities such as RpK succeeds, or one of the national space agencies suddenly gets a crash-program budget.

I wouldn't count on RpK. Suppose that they get the money they need and build the K1 to resupply the ISS. The mods required to make it manned are massive. It's simply not designed for it. They are going for the unmanned resupply mainly.

Just a frinstance, because they're the #2 COTS contender, and they do have nice viewgraphs of a manned K-1. I also don't think they can absorb as many failures as SpaceX (SpaceX spin issues notwithstanding). I think if t\Space could round up a major backer, they'd stand a chance. For that matter, if ULA proceeds with the Dream Chaser plan, and manages to get the vehicle aloft in 2012, I guess that would count. There's also the possibility some entity or another will decide to go with something equivalent to a Mercury capsule, which could be done pretty quickly, and then launched on a commercial LV for a 3-orbit tour...

[Joffan]

Duh. Hijacked poll, a private US company is not a nation, however much GE would like to think otherwise.

[mr.columbus]

Joffan - 3/5/2007  2:03 PM

Duh. Hijacked poll, a private US company is not a nation, however much GE would like to think otherwise.

Yep, the poll is also flawed because a. the EU is not a nation rather a supernational entity b. the EU has not much to do with ESA, which is engaged in space flight c. "space" also means suborbital flights and d. does that question exclude any cooperation between two space agencies (ESA/Roskosmos) because it speaks of "independent" space flight?

I think the more precise question would be:

Which governmental space agency or private corporation will make the next orbital spaceflight with a vehicle developed by it / or jointly developed by it and another entity?
a. ESA b. JAXA c. ISRO d. SpaceX e. RpK f. Boeing/*Partner* g. Other private entity or governmental space agency

[Celeritas]

mr.columbus - 4/5/2007  2:35 AM

Joffan - 3/5/2007  2:03 PM

Duh. Hijacked poll, a private US company is not a nation, however much GE would like to think otherwise.

Yep, the poll is also flawed because a. the EU is not a nation rather a supernational entity b. the EU has not much to do with ESA, which is engaged in space flight c. "space" also means suborbital flights and d. does that question exclude any cooperation between two space agencies (ESA/Roskosmos) because it speaks of "independent" space flight?

I think the more precise question would be:

Which governmental space agency or private corporation will make the next orbital spaceflight with a vehicle developed by it / or jointly developed by it and another entity?
a. ESA b. JAXA c. ISRO d. SpaceX e. RpK f. Boeing/*Partner* g. Other private entity or governmental space agency

Yes, it is a quick and dirty poll--I was literally being pulled out of my seat when I posted and did not catch the fundamental flaws inherent within.

A. and B.  If just to simplify things, I'll consider anything that comes out of Europe or--from a launch standpoint, French Guyana--to fall under the category European Union, multinational state status aside.  I apologize if anyone is offended by this obviously overbroad classification.

C. Orbital space flight is what I had in mind--I should have clarified this.

D. The voters can use whatever reasonable criteria they want when it comes to launches resulting from cooperation between agencies.

With that being said, I am intrigued by the results of the poll and I thank everyone who has participated.   :cool:

[02hurnella]

The EU and the ESA are very different. The EU bring a number of trade benefits but they are very widely disliked for interfering in National issues and incompetence.  Please dont tar the ESA with the same brush. They spend thier lives struggling against that.  The countries in the EU are different to those in the ESA too.

Of course the ESA could do manned operations. The ATV is a million miles more sophisticated than Shenzhou, but is the political will there? Well it is part of the ESA's Aurora program to do manned operations. Thing is they have to sneak it up on the politicians so they don't back out and panic. They are planning a space recovery experiment for this year a bit like SRE. I think they are trying to reach the stage where they can say to the politicians
    "look its no risk and will be cheap, and it will boost your popularity".

The ESA might just attempt manned spaceflight, but only after lots of flawless ATV flights so the politicians aren't at risk. I doubt the possibility of collaborations with Russia now they look so sinister!

I would love to see the indians or Japanese do it! Those programs are all about science and helping people, whereas the chinese one is propaganda for a brutal dictatorship.

[William Graham]

I think it will be close between a private American company, and the Indian government.

[Celeritas]

GW_Simulations - 4/5/2007  4:56 PM

I think it will be close between a private American company, and the Indian government.

My thoughts exactly.  The poll seems to show that as well, with an edge going to private enterprise.

[mianbentley]

May I be so bold as to suggest the country of Iran next, because they already have missiles that can travel 5000km, the Shehab-5 I believe its called. Clearly the intention to put satellites into orbit is there, but human cargo? Worth a thought.

[Christine]

For Iran, I doubt getting the cargo back alive would be seen as a massive priority. If they can use a captured british soldier this simplifies the problem immensely.

[simonbp]

mianbentley - 4/5/2007  10:47 PM

May I be so bold as to suggest the country of Iran next, because they already have missiles that can travel 5000km, the Shehab-5 I believe its called. Clearly the intention to put satellites into orbit is there, but human cargo? Worth a thought.

There's a bit of a difference between a Scud and manned spacecraft; like the difference between a rowboat and an aircraft carrier...

Simon

[kevin-rf]

Both a rowboat and an aircraft carrier float in water. Both a scud and a manned spacecraft reach space. Just most manned spacecraft (except the X-15, mercury-redstone, and SS-1) go into orbit

I don't see the irianians sending anyone up on a "scud on steriods".

[MKremer]

Just because someone can shoot whatever mass into earth orbit (and a stable, controllable orbit, mind you) doesn't automatically mean they also have the ability/technology/hardware to safely recover that mass or at least its cargo at the Earth's surface (ground or water) and that their reentry technology/process is safe for living organisms (especially human ones), and that they can do that when and where they want to.

National space programs (U.S./Russia/China) do it/have done it, but so far no other national program has successfully launched or recovered an air breathing living, intellegent (or even semi-intellegent) biological entity, regardless of what their space program PR is trumpeting or 'promising'.

[hop]

mianbentley - 4/5/2007  8:47 PM

May I be so bold as to suggest the country of Iran next, because they already have missiles that can travel 5000km, the Shehab-5 I believe its called. Clearly the intention to put satellites into orbit is there, but human cargo? Worth a thought.

Countries with advanced missile programs like Iran, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea are all possible longshot contenders, but they are far behind the frontrunners, and have few plausible motives for investing the required resources. Only Israel has launched satellites at all, and none have rockets with anywhere near the required payload. All have other very pressing concerns and severe limits on their resources.

IMO, India is the most likely candidate for a government program. They already have capable launch vehicles, multiple successful satellites on orbit, and one successful re-entry. They also have political motivation to demonstrate that they are a technically advanced nation, and a desire to show parity with China. Europe and Japan obviously have the technical capabilities and resources, but it's hard to see either suddenly deciding that manned flight is a national priority.

I'd give a private US venture 50/50 odds with India. Which one comes first depends on how the funding works out and how many stumbling blocks each one hits. While private ventures in other countries could theoretically have the same capabilities, I don't know of any credible ones actually working on manned orbital flight, so it would be surprising to see them get there first.

[whitewatcher]

Sojus is going to lift off from Kourou. I've heard the launch complex is designed to support manned spaceflights with minor modifications/additions.
CSTS (former ACTS) is a current ESA project; first concept is expected for June 2007. I guess they will build the updated Sojus Capsule together. Seems that the door ist kept open, but no step taken yet.

Indian launchers are quite advanced but not yet safe enough (GSLV with 50% failure rate). Keep in mind that chinese shenzhou developement took 11 years (1992-2003). But maybe they'll use different safety standards ...... they won't run out of people to blow up. ;-)

Israel? Their Shavit-2 can put only 550kg into a LEO. No candidate.

Malaysia first needs a launcher before thinking about a MSP. Reentry technology?

Private Company approach: Either SpaceX or Spacedev.

[hop]

whitewatcher - 8/5/2007  4:31 AM
Indian launchers are quite advanced but not yet safe enough (GSLV with 50% failure rate). Keep in mind that chinese shenzhou developement took 11 years (1992-2003). But maybe they'll use different safety standards ...... they won't run out of people to blow up. ;-)

Their record isn't significantly worse than the US and Soviet boosters which supported their first manned flights. Whether this is acceptable to India is of course an open question. Shenzhou development was quite slow, likely both to save budget and because the resulting spacecraft was much more capable than other nations first efforts. That said, I'd expect India to go slow as well, for much the same reasons.

Israel? Their Shavit-2 can put only 550kg into a LEO. No candidate.

I wasn't suggesting launching a manned Shavit-2 (or roughly equivalent boosters from Iran etc.), just noting that nations which have developed spacecraft and/or IRBMs are significantly further down the road than those who have not. Malaysia comes to mind.

[stanmarsh]

I think with the success of SRE and planned SRE2 in the near future, india is closest (compared to private/malasia, etc.) to putting man in space. ESA has no/low motivation to send a man in space for now, so my bet is on India.