Poll

Can the New Glenn launch more times than the Falcon 9 in the first 10 years of live?

Yes
7 (9.1%)
No
65 (84.4%)
Maybe
5 (6.5%)

Total Members Voted: 77


Author Topic: Can the New Glenn launch more times than the Falcon 9 in the first 10 years?  (Read 16717 times)

Offline dglow

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Even if NG outpaces F9 over an artificial window of ‘the first ten years’, it won’t ramp like Falcon has in the past five years.

Offline brahmanknight

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No.  It was never built to fly as much as Falcon 9. 


Offline DanClemmensen

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Based on the OP, we can reformulate this as "will New Glenn launch more than 86 times before January 2035?"

I think the answer is "no", because it will not compete well against F9 in the early years or against Starship later. It won't fly often until BO perfects booster reuse, and by then Starship will have perfected full and rapid reuse.

Their only hope is Kuiper, but Amazon's shareholders will not permit them to pay more per satellite if they can get a better deal from SpaceX.

Offline Yggdrasill

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I think they can. 8.6 launches per year isn't that much, and while Falcon 9 took 5 years to get to the first successful landing, New Glenn should perform the first landing in the first year. Falcon 9 was made on a shoestring budget, including all the production facilities. I think New Glenn will be able to comfortably surpass the Falcon 9 cadence for the first few years of life.

 

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