Author Topic: Concept for crewed 2033 Mars orbital mission (Internal JPL study)  (Read 31599 times)

Offline Coastal Ron

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I'm OK with training trips that progressively expand our competence in space travel.

And I think this JPL plan is trying to create something that requires the LEAST amount of development.

However the only way to get competence in space travel is to have a FREQUENCY of space travel, and any plan that uses the SLS is doomed to be too infrequent and too expensive to allow for any decent flight cadence. In other words, the SLS is so expensive that it forces each mission to take on the HIGHEST amount of risk palatable.

We know how much a Falcon Heavy launch costs (~$100M reusable, $150M expendable), and considering the extra cost for the SLS EUS, the total cost for all the launches is likely to be at least $13B, and they are forecasting it takes them about 5 years from first launch to last launch to assemble the mission.

This also seems to assume that the first operational mission is the first test mission too. Not sure that is a good idea.

Remember when NASA was pushing for funding to build the Nautilus-X? A reusable, space-only, multi-mission exploration spacecraft? That is what America should be working on if the U.S. Government wants to explore space beyond Earth local space.

So while I give the JPL proposal kudos for trying to make do with what we currently have, unfortunately what we currently have is not appropriate for leaving Earth local space.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online lykos

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All mission plans to moon, mars or elsewhere which includes SLS are only feeding the pig and not worth the paper written on.

Offline punder

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Looks like a mission planning training exercise for young engineers.  ???

Offline Zed_Noir

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Looks like a mission planning training exercise for young engineers.  ???
Looks like it. However Hoppy Price's name is on the proposal.

Offline mike robel

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Interesting but I suspect much too expensive.  Reminds me of Boeing IMIS and the attendant Lander represented my model.

Offline Zed_Noir

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.....Interesting but I suspect much too expensive.....
Heh, it is only expensive if you included the 4 SLS Block 2 and the Orion capsule for the proposed short stay orbital mission. Take away the ~$13B+ in cost of those 5 items, then the mission seems somewhat affordable.
 

Offline darkenfast

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Wonderful. Four astronauts get to spend over a year and a half in zero-g, without even a period of Martian gravity, just to NOT land on Mars. What can they accomplish that unmanned missions cannot and that can justify the extremely high cost of such a proposal? Apollo 10 not landing on the Moon made sense at the time. This does not.
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Online dglow

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Goes out of its way to avoid ‘DEPOT’ even with hypergolics, wow.

Offline su27k

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Another recent fiso presentation from Boeing about their 2033 Mars flyby concept. Not related to the JPL study, but I don't think we need multiple threads for deadbeat concepts like these.

Offline freddo411

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Another recent fiso presentation from Boeing about their 2033 Mars flyby concept. Not related to the JPL study, but I don't think we need multiple threads for deadbeat concepts like these.

My favorite part is the label on the graphic that says "Trash disposal/ Cubesat dispenser"

Online dglow

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Another recent fiso presentation from Boeing about their 2033 Mars flyby concept. Not related to the JPL study, but I don't think we need multiple threads for deadbeat concepts like these.

My favorite part is the label on the graphic that says "Trash disposal/ Cubesat dispenser"

That’s a winner for sure. My fave is the subtly shifting scale on the charts. Is a Cargo SLS 40mt tall, or 50mt?

Offline freddo411

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Another recent fiso presentation from Boeing about their 2033 Mars flyby concept. Not related to the JPL study, but I don't think we need multiple threads for deadbeat concepts like these.

My favorite part is the label on the graphic that says "Trash disposal/ Cubesat dispenser"

That’s a winner for sure. My fave is the subtly shifting scale on the charts. Is a Cargo SLS 40mt tall, or 50mt?

Oops.    Stupid hard to understand ... that axis is "payload mass".   The rockets are just visual clutter.

Why is the rocket sometimes labeled "Block 2" and sometimes "SLS block 2" ?      And never labeled "Mega Moon Rocket" ?

Offline Barley

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Acronym list needs updating.

USA - ???
DSB - ???
ECM- ???

Presumably not United States of America's Electronic Counter Measures using Dual Side Band.

Offline leovinus

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Interesting but I suspect much too expensive.  Reminds me of Boeing IMIS and the attendant Lander represented my model.

Thanks for the IMIS photo. I recognized the shape from IMIS on Astronautix . As for this thread and study-du-jour, I see about 60 or so American Mars mission concepts listed on American Mars Expeditions @ Astronautix. Since Von Braun and the 1960s, that is about one American Mars Mission study per year. Some discussed here in the Historical NSF section and some almost unknown. This JPL study seems the latest in that context.

In summary. The proposal is to do a short duration opposition class manned mission to orbited  Mars for 31 days launching in early 2033. Hardware required is 4 SLS Block 2 and 13 expendable Falcon Heavy launchers. Along with 17 hypergolic propulsion stages of 4 different tankage size, a 40 tonne transit habitat and a partial fueled Orion vehicle. THe return to Earth leg of the mission uses a Venusian gravity assist.

Quoting from post #1 of this thread, in a very very superficial way, that does not sound very different from, e.g, the EMPIRE studies from the 60s and some of its chemical launch options. It would be fun to dive into deeper comparisons of studies across the decades but that is for another thread.

Offline Surfdaddy

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Is somebody seriously suggesting spending >1.5 years in Orion's volume of space? Or am I missing something?

Offline webdan

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Is somebody seriously suggesting spending >1.5 years in Orion's volume of space? Or am I missing something?

It’s bigger on the inside, like inside the Tardis 😝

But yeah, I hear ya.

Offline whitelancer64

Another recent fiso presentation from Boeing about their 2033 Mars flyby concept. Not related to the JPL study, but I don't think we need multiple threads for deadbeat concepts like these.

I do like that the final slide says "Number Launch Vehicles, if SLS"

Nice subtle way of saying there might be other ways :p
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Offline whitelancer64

Is somebody seriously suggesting spending >1.5 years in Orion's volume of space? Or am I missing something?

Transit Habitat
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline whitelancer64

Acronym list needs updating.

USA - ???
DSB - ???
ECM- ???

Presumably not United States of America's Electronic Counter Measures using Dual Side Band.

I think...

Universal or Upper Stage Adapter - attaches Orion capsule to SLS.
Deep Space Booster or Bus - the propulsion module.
Enhanced Crew Module? - I think this refers to the habitat.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Surfdaddy

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Is somebody seriously suggesting spending >1.5 years in Orion's volume of space? Or am I missing something?

Transit Habitat

Yes, but the table above for some options says "Crew Vehicle - Mission" as Orion. Are they saying that there still would be a transit habitat in those cases, or that Orion is all there is?

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