Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022 (Read 34083 times)

Lar · « **on:** 12/27/2021 09:42 pm »

Number of SpaceX orbital flight attempts in 2022

Yet another year of this poll. It's been fun! Here it is... it's your chance to give us your best guess on how many orbital flight attempts SpaceX will have next year. Please read this post carefully, all the way to the bottom. The rules have been clarified (I used more colors, that's gotta help) and simplified (not really) and we have even more historical data for you to pore over than before. We had over 300 (302 is over 300) voters four years ago and there wasn't even a prize! Three years ago, around 130ish... two years ago, 123... maybe the lack of prize did it? Last year, 147.. Sadly, no prize this year either, fifth year in a row. But you want to vote anyway. 123? 147?Those are rookie numbers.

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2022:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55470

Prior Results

Number of SpaceX flights in 2021 poll thread (total as of this writing: 31, 0 pending )
3 Cargo Dragons: CRS-22 (C209.1), CRS-23 (C208.2), CRS-24 (C209.2)
3 Crew Dragons: Crew-2 (C206.2 Endeavour), Inspiration4 (C207.2 Resilience), Crew-3 (C210.1 Endurance),
8 non Dragon/non Starlink: (Turksat 5A, Transporter 1, SXM-8, GPS III-05, Transporter 2, DART, IXPE, Turksat 5B)
17 Starlink: 16 v1.0 (60 sats), 18 v1.0 (60 sats), 19 v1.0 (60 sats), 17 v1.0 (60 sats), 20 v1.0 (60 sats), 21 v1.0 (60 sats), 22 v1.0 (60 sats), 23 v1.0 (60 sats), 24 v1.0 (60 sats) , 25 v1.0 (60 sats) , 27 v1.0 (60 sats) , 26 v1.0 (52 sats+rideshares), 28 v1.0 (60 sats), (numbering changed in the middle)... Group 2-1 (v1.5 L1, 51 sats), Group 4-1 (53 sats), Group 4-3 (48 sats+rideshares), Group 4-4 (52 sats)
0 Abort tests that actually reached orbit accidentally
(Note that the Abort Test does not count as an orbital flight under our rules, although WP counts it as a launch)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52633.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2021:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52634.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2020 poll thread (actual total: 26 )
2 Cargo Dragons: CRS-20 (last original Dragon) and CRS-21 (first version Cargo Dragon 22
2 Crew Dragons: Demo-2 and Crew-1
7 non Dragon/non Starlink: (GPS III-03, ANASIS-II, SAOCOM 1B, GPS III-04, Sentinel-6, SXM 7, NROL-108)
14 Starlink: (Starlink 2 to Starlink 15)
0 Abort tests that actually reached orbit accidentally
(Note that the Abort Test does not count as an orbital flight under our rules, although WP counts it as a launch)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49675.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2020:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49707.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2019 poll thread (actual total: 13 )
3 cargo Dragons: CRS-17, 18, and 19
1 Crew Dragon: Spx-DM-1
2 Falcon Heavy: (Arabsat 6A,STP-2 (US Air Force) )
6 non Dragon: (Iridium NEXT 8 (the last one), Nusantara Satu/SpaceIL/GTO-1,Starlink v0.9,RADARSAT,AMOS-17, Starlink v1 Flt 1,JCSat-18 / Kacific 1)
1 Starlink: (Starlink v1 Flt 2)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46973

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2019:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46972.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2018 poll thread (actual total: 21)
3 Dragons: CRS-14, 15, and 16
1 Falcon Heavy: (FH Demo/Tesla Roadster)
17 F9 non Dragon: (Zuma, GovSat-1 (SES-16), PAZ & Microsat 2a/2b, Hispasat 1F (30W-6), Iridium NEXT (Flight 5), NASA (TESS), Bangabandhu-1, Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FO, SES-12, Telstar 19 Vantage, Iridium NEXT (Flight 7), Merah Putih (Telkom 4), Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5C, SAOCOM 1A, Es'hail 2, SSO-A,GPS III-01)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43942.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2018:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44407.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2017 poll thread (actual total: 16 and 2 pending as of late Dec 2017 writing)
3 Dragons: CRS-10, 11,12 and one pending... CRS-13 (pending)
13 non Dragon: Iridium-1 (1-10), EchoStar-23, SES-10, NROL-76, Inmarsat-5, BulgariaSat-1, Iridium-2 (11-20), Intelsat 35e, FORMOSAT-5, OTV-5 (X-37B), SES-11 / EchoStar 105, Iridium-3 (21-30) Koreasat 5A )
1 non Dragon pending as of poll start last year: Iridium-4 (31-40)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2017:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41825.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2016 poll thread (actual total: 8,
2 Dragons: CRS-8, and CRS 9
6 non Dragon: Jason-3, SES-9, JCSAT-14, Thaicom 8, Eutelsat 117 West B/ABS-2A, JCSAT-16
1 non Dragon pad anomaly: AMOS-6 )
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2016: (actual total: 5 successes of 8 tries)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39219.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2015 poll thread (actual total: 7,
3 Dragons: CRS-5, CRS-6, and CRS-7 (failed),
3 non Dragon: DSCOVR, ABS-3A/Eutelsat 115 West B, TurkmenAlem52E/MonacoSAT )
PLUS ORBCOMM-2 RTF which happened after the 2016 poll started and featured the first successful first stage landing.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36377.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2014 poll thread (actual total: 6, 2 Dragons: CRS-3, and CRS-4)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2013 poll thread (actual total: 3, 1 Dragon: CRS-2)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2012 poll thread (actual total: 2, 2 Dragons: C2+ and CRS-1)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0

Current 2022-23 SpaceX Flights Scheduled

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

Local	LV	Core	Ret-	.	.	Mass	.	Mis-
Est. Date, Time/UTC	.	S/N	urn	Payload(s)	Orb	(kg)	Site	sion
`------------------- .`	`---`	`------ .`	`---`	`----------------------------`	`--- .`	`-----`	`-----`	`----`
2022-01-13	F9	.	L?	SpaceX Transporter-3	SSO	.	C-40	.
2022-01 (NET)	F9	10xx-x	S	Starlink (next Florida)	LEO	~14k	C	.
2022-01-late/-5	F9	10xx-x	.	CSG-2	SSO	2240	C-40	.
2022	F9	.	S	Starlink (next Vandenberg)	LEO	~16k	V	.
2022-early (NET)	F9	.	.	O3B mPOWER 1-3	MEO	~5k	C	.
2022-early	H	NNN	SXS	USSF-44	GEO	.	C-39A	(H4)
2022-02-02~	F9	N	.	NROL-87	SSO	?	V-4E	.
2022-02-28	F9	.	.	Axiom AX-1 (crewed)	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2022-Q1	F9	.	.	Intuitive Machines IM-1	TLI	?	C-39A	.
2022	S	.	.	Starship Orbital Test 1	LEO	.	B	.
2022-03/04	F9	.	.	SpaceX Transporter-4	SSO	.	C	.
2022-04-mid	F9	10xx-x	S	CCtCap Crew-4	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2022-04	F9	.	.	Nilesat-301	GTO	4100	C-40	.
2022-04	F9	.	.	EnMAP	SSO	.	C	.
2022-H1	H	.	SXS	ViaSat 3 Americas/Arcturus	GEO	~6k	C-39A	(H6)
2022-05	F9	.	.	CRS2 SpX-25	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2022-05-mid (NET)	F9	R	.	Legion F1 (maybe rideshare)	SSO	.	C/V	.
2022	H	N	.	USSF-52	GTO	.	C-39A	(H5)
2022-06	F9	.	.	SpaceX Transporter-5	SSO	.	C/V	.
2022	F9	.	.	SARah 1	SSO	~2200	C/V	.
2022-Q2	F9	.	X	O3B mPOWER 4-6	MEO	~7k	C	.
2022	F9	.	.	SARah 2/3	SSO	~3600	C/V	.
2022	F9	R	S	GPS III-6	MEO	4400	C
2022-Q3	F9	.	.	Galaxy 31/32	GTO	.	C	.
2022-Q3	F9	.	.	Galaxy 33/34	GTO	.	C	.
2022-Q3	F9	R	.	Intelsat 40e with TEMPO	GTO	.	C	.
2022-H2	F9	.	S	Amazonas Nexus	GTO	4500	C	.
2022-08-01 1400/-4	H	N	.	Psyche	ESC	.	C-39A	(H7)
2022-08	F9	.	.	Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter	?	678	C	.
2022-09	F9	.	.	CRS2 SpX-26	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2022-09	F9	.	.	SDA Tranche 0 Flight 1	PLR	~6k	V-4E	.
2022-Q3	H	.	SXS	USSF-67	.	.	C-39A	(H8)
2022-Q3	F9	.	.	SES-18 / SES-19	GTO	.	C	.
2022	F9	R	.	WorldView Legion flight 2	LEO	.	C	.
2022-09 (NET)	F9	10xx-x	S	CCtCap Crew-5	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2022-10	F9	.	.	SpaceX Transporter-6	SSO	.	C/V	.
2022-Fall (NET)	F9	.	.	Axiom AX-2 (crewed)	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2022-11-15	F9	.	.	SWOT	LEO	2000	V-4E	.
2022-Q4	F9	.	.	O3B mPOWER 7-9	MEO	~7k	C	.
2022	F	.	.	Inmarsat I-6 F2 (GX6B)	GTO	.	C	.
2022-Q4	F9	.	.	Intuitive Machines IM-2	TLI	?	C-39A	.
2022 (NET)	F9	N	.	NROL-85	LEO	?	V-4E	.

NOTES:
(H4) USSF-44 - Serial Numbers: Side1:1064-1 Center:1066-1 Side2: 1065-1
(H5) USSF-52 - Serial Numbers: Side1:10xx-x Center:1070-1 Side2: 10xx-x
(H6) Viasat 3 - Serial Numbers: Side1:10xx-x Center:1068-1 Side2: 10xx-x
(H7) Psyche - Serial Numbers: Side1:10xx-x Center:10xx-x Side2: 10xx-x
(H8) USSF-67 - Serial Numbers: Side1:10xx-x Center:10xx-x Side2: 10xx-x
(H9) Astrobotic/VIPER- Serial Numbers: Side1:10xx-x Center:10xx-x Side2: 10xx-x
(H10) GOES U - Serial Numbers: Side1:10xx-x Center:10xx-x Side2: 10xx-x
(H11) Europa Clipper - Serial Numbers: side cores from Psyche
(H12) PPE/HALO - Serial Numbers: Side1:10xx-x Center:10xx-x Side2: 10xx-x

Companies that appear to have launch contracts for unspecified payloads:
Eutelsat, Inmarsat, Bigelow

(According to gongora's manifest thread with modification, and my editorial comments, and I won't update it post 1 Jan... if I bobbled something let me know... )

(Last year's list as of the time of the poll, for reference)

(any transcription errors from abridging this are mine, refer to the original post here:
SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5 header )

Local	LV	Core	Ret-	.	.	Mass	.	Mis-
Est. Date, Time/UTC	.	S/N	urn	Payload(s)	Orb	(kg)	Site	sion
`------------------- .`	`---`	`------ .`	`---`	`----------------------------`	`--- .`	`-----`	`-----`	`----`
*2021-01-042027/-5**	F9	1060.4	S	Türksat 5A	GTO	3500	C-40	.
2021-01-14 (NET)	F9	.	S	SpaceX Transporter-1	SSO	.	C	.
2021-01	F9	.	S	Starlink v1.0 L16	LEO	~16k	C	.
2021	F9	.	S	Starlink v1.0 L17	LEO	~16k	C	.
2021	F9	.	S	Starlink v1.0 L18	LEO	~16k	C	.
2021	F9	.	S	Starlink v1.0 L19	LEO	~16k	C	.
2021	F9	.	.	SiriusXM SXM-8	GTO	>5400	C	.
2021-03-30 (NET)	F9	1061.2	S	CCtCap Crew-2	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2021	F9	.	.	SARah 1	SSO	~2200	V-4E	.
2021 late spring	H	NNN	?X?	USSF-44	GEO	.	C-39A	(H4)
2021-05	F9	.	.	CRS2 SpX-22	LEO	.	C	.
2021-06	F9	.	.	Türksat 5B	GTO	4500	C	.
2021-06	F9	.	.	SpaceX Transporter-2	SSO	.	C/V	.
2021	H	N	.	USSF-52	GTO	.	C-39A	.
2021-Q3	F9	.	.	O3B mPOWER 1-3	MEO	~5k	C	(130)
2021	F9	.	.	SARah 2/3	SSO	~3600	V-4E	.
2021-07	F9	1062.2	S	GPS III-5	MEO	4400	C
2021-07-21	F9	R	.	DART	ESC	~500	V-4E	.
2021-09	F9	.	.	CRS2 SpX-23	LEO	.	C	.
2021-H2	F9	N	.	NROL-85	LEO	?	C	.
2021-09	F9	R	.	WorldView Legion flight 1	LEO	.	V	.
2021-09	F9	10xx.x	S	CCtCap Crew-3	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2021-H2	F9	N	.	NROL-87	SSO	?	V-4E	.
2021-10	F9	.	.	Intuitive Machines (R)	.	?	C-39A	.
2021-11-20 (NET)	F9	R	.	IXPE	LEO	337	C-39A	.
2021-11	F9	.	.	CRS2 SpX-24	LEO	.	C	.
2021-12	F9	.	.	SpaceX Transporter-3	SSO	.	C/V	.
2021-late (NET)	F9	R	.	WorldView Legion flight 2	LEO	.	C	.
2021-late (NET)	F9	.	.	Axiom AX-1 (crewed)	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2021-late (NET)	F9	.	S	Space Adventures Dragon	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2021	F9	R	S	GPS III-6	MEO	4400	C

NOTES:
(H4) USSF-44 - Serial Numbers: Side1:10xx.1 Center:10xx.1 Side2: 10xx.1
(H5) Psyche - Serial Numbers: Side1:10xx.1 Center:10xx.1 Side2: 10xx.1
(120) Intersputnik NationSat & co-passenger NET 2020
(130) 2 flights for O3B mPOWER in 2021
(150) Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter : Post

Companies that appear to have launch contracts for unspecified payloads:
Eutelsat, Inmarsat, Bigelow

Poll Rules
- Poll closes same time as last year, around Jan 20.
- This allows time for those out of town during the holidays
- This also prevents the thread from going on so long to make the poll unfair to early voters.
- Early voters don't know if certain launches happen or don't... take that into account when voting.
- No do-overs... I can't change anyone's vote without closing and reopening, and it wouldn't be fair anyway
- No late votes... I am not reopening the poll because you forgot. You can still post a rationale if you want.
- Please PM me with any questions/comments/concerns. I've done what I can to make this orderly.
- UTC time is considered for any launches on Dec 31st (of either 2020 or 2021 or 2022 or 2023 (you get the idea)). T-0 time determines what year the launch was in.

Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread/poll
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second (or only if SSTO) stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit. (this includes earth orbits and direct injection to other orbits such as solar, etc. It also, to forestall nitpicking, includes hyperbolic trajectories... what it doesn't include is any trajectory that (is intended to) return to earth without having performed at least one complete orbit of Earth (some wag last year pointed out that with rotation to get over the launch site again takes about 380 degrees for a LEO... yeah whatever. As I said last year if this actually happens, I will rule in a way to annoy the maximum number of people)
- The launch does not have to "succeed".. if the engines fire with intent to launch, that's enough, unless the vehicle does not move at all, and survives so another attempt can be tried
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Comsats, mass simulators, interplanetary missions, etc
- Scrubs and static fires do not count.
- Suborbital tests and missions DO NOT count. (this includes the starhopper, any starship suborbitals, any superheavy suborbitals)
- Suborbital core returns, should any happen, also DO NOT count (inasmuch as they are part of some other mission, and there is a separate poll for core returns)
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Starship tests count IF they are not suborbital. SSTO if they try it, or two stage. (so none counted so far)
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.
- There might be a few tiny edge cases that still don't clearly bin to "launch" or "not launch" ... in that case I will, in my Imperial Magesty, make the call.

Practical Examples
- CRS-7 COUNTED.
- Amos-6 DID NOT COUNT.
- An FH launch WILL COUNT as one launch, not three, obviously.
- Grasshopper and F9R-suborbital tests DID NOT COUNT.
- Equivalent ITS/BFR/Starship/whatever suborbital tests WILL NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon Pad Abort Test (May 6, 2015) DID NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon In-Flight Abort Test DID NOT COUNT. (WP counts it as a launch, fine whatever, it wasn't orbital)
- DM1 did count
- However, a failed commercial crew launch that results in a Dragon abort WILL COUNT if the launch otherwise counts (see CRS-7 vs AMOS-6.)

Rationale for "Number of Launches" thread
The original purpose of this thread was to get an intelligent discussion going on the number of launches that would actually take place. At the beginning of 2012 and 2013, it was pretty unclear how many launches would take place those respective years. This was even true somewhat for 2014... as the 2014 poll makes clear. But collectively we did not do too bad... On 2015 SpaceX was tracking to make something fairly close to our consensus until CRS-7 set them back... Again, in 2016, SpaceX was tracking to make pretty close to our consensus until AMOS-6 set them back... SpaceX had aggressive plans for 2017 too which they did well at. Ditto 2018, their planned launches didn't all happen but they set a new internal record.

NOTE: We're interested in your rationale, but not in "should I vote yet" and not in "this poll is flawed because..."... those posts might just get trimmed.. Not going to limit it to one post per person at this time, but if there is too much trivial back and forth we might.

Lar · « **Reply #1 on:** 12/27/2021 11:42 pm »

42

1 - It is pretty close to how many flights are in the manifest for '22, give or take.
2 - it's a cool number.

niwax · « **Reply #2 on:** 12/28/2021 12:50 am »

36 F9, 3 Starship. 39 total.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #3 on:** 12/28/2021 01:41 am »

Huh, I voted 37, and I'm on the low side of current voters.

Rebel44 · « **Reply #4 on:** 12/28/2021 11:01 am »

IMO: 42
34x F9
4x FH
4x SH+SS

oldAtlas_Eguy · « **Reply #5 on:** 12/28/2021 04:53 pm »

Voted 50.

- 33 F9 & FH paying customers (NOTE there is 42 such on the manifest. But this coming year will be a lot like 2021 in that many of the payloads were delayed from 6 to 9 months. So used a 80% discounting of the manifest.)
- 12 F9 Starlink (Will be affected by chip shortage and possible shift of some of the later year Starlink sats being launched on a couple of Starship flights.)
- 5 Starship (Mostly Demo but some will carry Starlink sats.)

If you put down the max 42 paying+24 F9 Starlink+12 Starship and you would have 78 launches!!!! So a value of 50 is way down. Also a 10% +- on 20 launches is +-2 but on 50 is +-5. So a 10% accurate estimate yields a range of 45 to 55. But 2021 was closer to a 20% accuracy of the initial estimates, so that range is 40 to 60. Picking a specific number has a likely chance of happening at less than 5% and could be as low as 3%.

This year it is truly going to be a WAG (wild a__ guess).

DreamyPickle · « **Reply #6 on:** 12/28/2021 05:17 pm »

The correct answer is in the lead!

Comga · « **Reply #7 on:** 12/28/2021 07:49 pm »

Quote from: Lar on 12/27/2021 11:42 pm

42

1 - It is pretty close to how many flights are in the manifest for '22, give or take.
2 - it's a cool number.

You beat me to it!
42

My count of the manifest for 2022 is exactly 42, but it only includes 2 Starlink flights and a solitary Spaceship flight
They have already hit a pace of >40 per year over ten flights.
Last year I said that someday 42 would be the answer. 2022 could be it.
And for some of us 42 is the cool number

Hey! It’s not infinitely improbable!

Lar · « **Reply #8 on:** 12/29/2021 03:26 am »

Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5 ... wow that's pessimistic!

Vultur · « **Reply #9 on:** 12/30/2021 01:05 am »

I voted 36, but... lots of uncertainty here. The big questions IMO are Starlink production rate and SH/Starship launch license (plus whether there are any issues which lead to a pause in F9 launches).

Rebel44 · « **Reply #10 on:** 12/30/2021 02:44 pm »

Quote from: Lar on 12/29/2021 03:26 am

Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5 ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

Lar · « **Reply #11 on:** 12/30/2021 08:14 pm »

Quote from: Rebel44 on 12/30/2021 02:44 pm

Quote from: Lar on 12/29/2021 03:26 am
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5 ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

The post introducing the poll is horrendously long but maybe a disclaimer that this includes BOTH Falcon and Starship

Unrelatedly, I see 42 with a plurality of votes.... I'm thinking that's because this is the first year that SpaceX are within striking distance of 40+ launches and we are all such geeks that we like 42. A lot. (See also Comga's remarks, just above)

Comga · « **Reply #12 on:** 01/02/2022 06:37 pm »

Quote from: Rebel44 on 12/30/2021 02:44 pm

Quote from: Lar on 12/29/2021 03:26 am
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5 ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

Agreed
Those entries will play havoc with any averaging or other analysis.
And as Lar said last year, they’re going to know they were wrong real soon.😁

To the four who voted for <6:
Were you thinking of Starship/Superheavy instead of all SpaceX orbital launches?

If you don’t want to post it publicly you could PM me.
I could even include a revised vote in the analysis. 😉

whitelancer64 · « **Reply #13 on:** 01/02/2022 06:52 pm »

Quote from: Comga on 01/02/2022 06:37 pm

Quote from: Rebel44 on 12/30/2021 02:44 pm
Quote from: Lar on 12/29/2021 03:26 am
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5 ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

Agreed
Those entries will play havoc with any averaging or other analysis.
And as Lar said last year, they’re going to know they were wrong real soon.😁

To the four who voted for <6:
Were you thinking of Starship/Superheavy instead of all SpaceX orbital launches?

If you don’t want to post it publicly you could PM me.
I could even include a revised vote in the analysis. 😉

They probably did it intentionally to mess with the statistics. I wouldn't have included less than 20 even as an option.

Tywin · « **Reply #14 on:** 01/02/2022 07:12 pm »

Quote from: Rebel44 on 12/30/2021 02:44 pm

Quote from: Lar on 12/29/2021 03:26 am
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5 ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

I had the mistake of thinking it was about the Starship and that's why I voted two...

Otherwise, I would say 45 rocket launches...

Sorry Lar, for the mistake...

mandrewa · « **Reply #15 on:** 01/02/2022 08:19 pm »

53 flights (5 Starship, 4 Falcon Heavy, and 44 Falcon 9)

I don't think SpaceX will be constrained by the number of payloads this year. In fact, far from it, I suspect they will want to launch much more often than this. I'm guessing 10 Falcon 9 launches from Vandenberg and four Falcon Heavy launches from Pad 39A, with each Falcon Heavy occupying the pad for an average of five weeks. That leaves 84 weeks between Pad 39A and Pad 40 for the Falcon 9 launches. If there is say on the eastern range an average of 17 days per Falcon 9 at a pad, that would give 34 Falcon 9 launches.

This is a slightly pessimistic forecast. They may be able to do better.

eriblo · « **Reply #16 on:** 01/23/2022 07:41 pm »

Just making sure to record my justification while I still remember it:

I voted 42, the same as last year and for the same obvious cultural reason

Last year it felt optimistic but the 60-day average rate was actually 42 launches/year for 55 days in total in 2021 - the only problem was that they stopped launching during the summer/early fall...

This year it might be my most pessimistic SpaceX launch poll prediction. The 60 day average rate was 54/year at the time of voting (rising to 60/year if the next 3 go as planned) and they should have plenty of Starlinks to launch this year.

DistantTemple · « **Reply #17 on:** 01/23/2022 08:41 pm »

Would have said 56.... Didn't have closing date in my calendar. $:-\$
I always read from the "updated posts". Would help to have exiting things like this flagged on the home page... or in some way.

Comga · « **Reply #18 on:** 03/02/2022 12:11 am »

Oops. Forgot about this. Sorry about that, Chief!

Same evaluation process as in years past.
The consensus, both arithmetic average and mean of the fitted Gaussian, was just over 40.
While the consensus formed early, this year it's as much due to rapidly diminishing interest to the general agreement.
We might as well cut it off before the first launch, or on January 1, as few waited until the last day.
With all the possible entries, and with all us HHGTTG fans choosing 42, (We're going to be lynched!") the distribution is looking less and less like a Gaussian

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #19 on:** 06/19/2022 06:40 am »

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1538409582900518912

Quote

With tonight’s launch of Globalstar FM15, SpaceX has flown 26 missions this year, an average of one launch every 6.5 days.

SpaceX has tied its total number of launches in 2020, and is on pace to exceed the tally of 31 Falcon 9 launches from last year by the end of July.

Poll

How many SpaceX orbital flight attempts do you anticipate in 2022?

Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022 (Read 34083 times)