Author Topic: Poll: Falcon Heavy will have it's first successful launch? (Read 18394 times)

Prober · « **on:** 12/07/2014 12:15 am »

This is a fun poll to see who's crystal ball can pick a winner

Falcon Heavy will have it's first successful launch in (what month) in 2015?

Successful = launching to the payloads required orbit.

You may add from which launch site in your comments and why. The poll will close January 2, 2015.

chamann · « **Reply #1 on:** 12/07/2014 12:31 am »

I chose November because it will probably be on the 39A pad in mid-Summer and then experience a number of delays and aborts which will need to be assessed and, if need be, fixes implemented. They will be absolutely compelled to get it right the first time due to the need to start the certification process with the Air Force and NASA, and the need to build customers' confidence in it. Can't afford to rush, which I'm sure they won't.

CraigLieb · « **Reply #2 on:** 12/07/2014 02:17 am »

I picked September because it is my birthday month and I want a successful heavy launch as a present.

[Edit: Of course, I am willing to get an early Birthday present too!

]

jongoff · « **Reply #3 on:** 12/07/2014 04:24 am »

For thoroughness, you should probably add a button for "No launch in 2015". I really hope that's not the case, but it's a non-zero possibility with everything SpaceX has on its plate.

~Jon

docmordrid · « **Reply #4 on:** 12/07/2014 04:55 am »

August.

Dalhousie · « **Reply #5 on:** 12/07/2014 05:18 am »

No successful launch - it's not even on the pad yet!

john smith 19 · « **Reply #6 on:** 12/07/2014 06:13 am »

I voted November, which is the peak estimate but I do think there is a non zero probability it won't launch at all.

SpaceX need to start launching their backlog of manifested launches, continuing prep for Commercial Crew (don't they have a LES test of some sort scheduled for 2015?) and get an initial launch of FH.

This suggests that while doing this they will also be training up staff to raise numbers, although I think automation can cover a lot of work.

I think the FH launch (and just as importantly next launch) will depend on exactly how close to 3 F9 cores is the 1st stage (and wheather propellant transfer will be demonstrated on the first flight)?

Best case. All F9 1st stages can be part of an F9 or FH as they have the load carrying fittings and propellant transfer lines fitted as standard. IE Any first stage can be an F9, FH core or FH 1st stage booster.

Worst case. F9 1st stages, FH cores and FH boosters are all substantially different, especially in the nose end, with either no, from/to or to/from 2 part propellant couplings, along with heavier unique structural designs to carry the different loads.

Both will superficially look the same but the latter will need a lot more structural and stress analysis, not just of 3 different structures but of their combined loads interaction.

The easy option in this is to let the schedule slip, but I hope they won't do this too much.

BTW The more those stages are like an F9 the more confidence you can have in a Bayesian analysis of the probability for launch success. If they are very similar you got a pretty good chance of a 1st liftoff, otherwise standard statistics say 50/50 of an OK launch,

daver · « **Reply #7 on:** 12/07/2014 03:35 pm »

Quote from: CraigLieb on 12/07/2014 02:17 am

I picked September because it is my birthday month and I want a successful heavy launch as a present.

I'm hoping for a summer launch but a September birthday present would be good. Voting September.

llanitedave · « **Reply #8 on:** 12/07/2014 04:19 pm »

I picked November just because they're going to be very busy this year and it might take a while to get to it.

oldAtlas_Eguy · « **Reply #9 on:** 12/07/2014 05:33 pm »

I picked October which still is optimistic because the long pole in this tent is LC39A.

They started work in Oct 2014 and getting everything done, ready, and checked out in 1 year is very aggressive. But SpaceX has always been aggressive. It saves money to build at a fast pace pushing for no breaks or delays. Because breaks and delays in construction cause total costs to increase although the monthly payout could be less. A budgeted activity that limits payouts can have a bad effect on costs and schedules.

I don't think SpaceX will have a cash flow problem in 2015 if they can actually launch 12+ times. Any significant limitations on number of launches will cause a cash flow problem. SpaceX has many options for any such cash flow hiccups but if the problem is significant it can create snowball effects in schedules.

mheney · « **Reply #10 on:** 12/07/2014 05:40 pm »

I used the birthday month reasoning - November. But it's just a WAG - there's a lot of work needed to get #1 off the pad.

dglow · « **Reply #11 on:** 12/07/2014 06:32 pm »

October.

Hauerg · « **Reply #12 on:** 12/07/2014 06:38 pm »

Quote from: Dalhousie on 12/07/2014 05:18 am

No successful launch - it's not even on the pad yet!

There is even no pad yet.

So: November.

Prober · « **Reply #13 on:** 12/07/2014 09:07 pm »

Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 12/07/2014 05:33 pm

I picked October which still is optimistic because the long pole in this tent is LC39A.

what of Vandenberg? maybe a switch?

Hotblack Desiato · « **Reply #14 on:** 12/07/2014 10:09 pm »

picked may

because my birthday is in january, and that would be a bit over optimistic. but may sounds nice, and I read somewhere, that they planned it for the second quarter of the year.

dorkmo · « **Reply #15 on:** 12/07/2014 11:19 pm »

do we know the status of the test stand in mcgregor?

411rocket · « **Reply #16 on:** 12/07/2014 11:24 pm »

Quote from: Prober on 12/07/2014 09:07 pm

Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 12/07/2014 05:33 pm
I picked October which still is optimistic because the long pole in this tent is LC39A.

what of Vandenberg? maybe a switch?

A switch was previously done, that is why the first heavy launch is at 39A & not Vandy.

I expect a few hiccups & picked my Birthday month, as in December.

ChefPat · « **Reply #17 on:** 12/08/2014 02:53 pm »

I voted "No successful launch" & I should disclose that I am indeed a starry eyed SpaceX Fanatic. I just believe that this is a really tough nut to crack & it'll take them a while to get it right.

sdsds · « **Reply #18 on:** 09/02/2016 03:44 am »

Quote from: ChefPat on 12/08/2014 02:53 pm

I voted "No successful launch"

Congratulations to you and 24 others who made this prediction. It now certainly seems to have the highest likelihood of being correct! (My prediction of August has today become provably incorrect, unless there was a secret launch about which we knew nothing! ;-) )

kch · « **Reply #19 on:** 09/02/2016 03:57 am »

Quote from: sdsds on 09/02/2016 03:44 am

Quote from: ChefPat on 12/08/2014 02:53 pm
I voted "No successful launch"

Congratulations to you and 24 others who made this prediction. It now certainly seems to have the highest likelihood of being correct! (My prediction of August has today become provably incorrect, unless there was a secret launch about which we knew nothing! ;-) )

You're right -- there was no successful launch of FH in 2015 ...

(I was just as wrong ... guessed September (2015))