Author Topic: End of life of Dnepr, Rockot, and Strela in 2015? (Read 15940 times)

mango · « **on:** 12/02/2008 02:22 pm »

A very interesting IAC 2008 paper by Mr. Webb and Mr. Sokolov of Commercial Space Technologies states that the last feasible launches for

Dnepr (SS-18) will be in 2014 and for
Rockot and Strela (SS-19s) will be in 2015 or 2016

because of limits to lifetime extensions for these late 80s ICBMs. Is this widely accepted, controversial, or approximately correct?

thanks,
Dan

p.s. the 2007 version of paper is available here: http://www.commercialspace.co.uk/assets/files/IAC%20paper%202007%20CST.pdf

sammie · « **Reply #1 on:** 12/02/2008 02:57 pm »

It's a bit of a moving target. First the end of life was determined by SALT and other weapon treaties. Not too sure whether they still apply. The Russian strategic forces are also developing a life extension program for most ICBM's. So it is often up to them to determine whether the missile can still be used.

A further alternative for Dnepr is to use R-36M2 version of the Rocket, these have been produced at a later date, and could therefore be launched after the 2014 target date of the older versions currently used for the Dnepr programme.

mango · « **Reply #2 on:** 12/02/2008 04:14 pm »

Here is official Eurockot statement from their website faq (www.eurockot.com)

Lifetime:
Question: What is the lifetime of a Rockot vehicle with respect to the SS-19 booster stage?
Answer: SS-19 Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) were specifically designed for long term storage in silos. They are stored in a Transport and Launch Container (TLC), which assures that these vehicles are stored in a controlled environment. An on-going life extension programme is being pursued in Russia to guarantee the life time of these missiles. Currently it is technically approved to use SS-19s to at least 2014, with further extensions being approved and hence extending this lifetime beyond this time period.

Realistic optimism?

thanks
Dan

hop · « **Reply #3 on:** 12/03/2008 04:55 am »

Pavel Podvig recently noted life extension of UR-100NUTTH/SS-19
http://russianforces.org/blog/2008/12/long_life_of_ur-100nutth_-_33.shtml

VDD1991 · « **Reply #4 on:** 12/27/2019 03:49 am »

The Dnepr rocket was retired in March 2015 because of worsening Russia-Ukraine relations following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 (http://www.parabolicarc.com/2015/02/06/russia-severing-ties-ukraine-dnepr-zenit-launch-programs/), while the Strela flew its last launch in 2014 and the Rokot rocket just had its last launch today.