Quote from: Lar on 12/26/2017 02:58 pmQuote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 12/22/2017 06:22 pmWith the first 2 test sats going up late Jan/ early Feb, I expect the first set of production sats to be launched at about +18 months. That includes 6 months of testing with these 2 sats to delve out the problems and solutions and software needed for the production models. Then 1 year for a combined very short design period with manufacturing gearing up with the first 20-30 sats delivered around Jun 2019 with launch Aug 2019. Then launches every 2 months of additional sets with the duration between shortening by a few days each cycle until launches occurring at just less than 1 month duration.Operational point (800+ sats) is reached around Mid to late 2021 based on how many sats can be launched on each F9 flight (20 [latest date] or 32 [earlier date]).I think it may be sooner than 18 months for the first production, we'll see. SpaceX iterates fast so there may be another pait to test with prior to production start.A definite possibility of 2 to 4 production prototypes at 12+ months from the Feb launched set. Since these would be actual production constellation like in features wattage/bandwidth/spot sizes/cross links they would be covered under the general FCC license for the constellation. Meaning we would not get any indication by following applications for FCC licensing. We would only know if this will happen if SpaceX releases the info about such.
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 12/22/2017 06:22 pmWith the first 2 test sats going up late Jan/ early Feb, I expect the first set of production sats to be launched at about +18 months. That includes 6 months of testing with these 2 sats to delve out the problems and solutions and software needed for the production models. Then 1 year for a combined very short design period with manufacturing gearing up with the first 20-30 sats delivered around Jun 2019 with launch Aug 2019. Then launches every 2 months of additional sets with the duration between shortening by a few days each cycle until launches occurring at just less than 1 month duration.Operational point (800+ sats) is reached around Mid to late 2021 based on how many sats can be launched on each F9 flight (20 [latest date] or 32 [earlier date]).I think it may be sooner than 18 months for the first production, we'll see. SpaceX iterates fast so there may be another pait to test with prior to production start.
With the first 2 test sats going up late Jan/ early Feb, I expect the first set of production sats to be launched at about +18 months. That includes 6 months of testing with these 2 sats to delve out the problems and solutions and software needed for the production models. Then 1 year for a combined very short design period with manufacturing gearing up with the first 20-30 sats delivered around Jun 2019 with launch Aug 2019. Then launches every 2 months of additional sets with the duration between shortening by a few days each cycle until launches occurring at just less than 1 month duration.Operational point (800+ sats) is reached around Mid to late 2021 based on how many sats can be launched on each F9 flight (20 [latest date] or 32 [earlier date]).
I wouldn't be super surprised if SpaceX puts Earth observation cameras on Starlink eventually, especially if they start working more closely with Tesla. It can help improve Tesla's mapping system, which currently is much worse than Google Maps.Google has invested a lot in mapping and now owns some Earth observation constellations which they algorithmically extract features from for Google Maps.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 12/27/2017 12:48 amI wouldn't be super surprised if SpaceX puts Earth observation cameras on Starlink eventually, especially if they start working more closely with Tesla. It can help improve Tesla's mapping system, which currently is much worse than Google Maps.Google has invested a lot in mapping and now owns some Earth observation constellations which they algorithmically extract features from for Google Maps.See also this study of just how far ahead Google is (of everyone else).. .kind of a long read but fascinating.https://www.justinobeirne.com/google-maps-moat/ Doing something about that (other than just licensing Google as everyone else seems to be doing) smacks of the sort of thing Elon would like. HOWEVER, with Google as an investor of Starlink, the actual path might be twisty.
Quote from: speedevil on 12/27/2017 01:14 pmQuote from: docmordrid on 12/27/2017 05:58 amQuote from: speedevil on 12/27/2017 04:08 am>I have failed to find a nice mass or volume number for the satellites.>I've failed to find any source saying the volume for the satellite is between 3m^3 and 6m^3, and not (say) 1m^3.>Here ya go....I have problems with this. This gives the satellite body dimensions as 4*1.8*1.2m - 8.6m^3, so a completely naive view might be that ~6 satellites might fit inside the fairing.However, Iridium-next satellite dimensions are from one source given as 3.1 m x 2.4 m x 1.5 m - 11.1m^3, and that launched ten. Iridium weighs over twice as much.4*1.8*1.2 is also notably rather larger than a refrigerator (annoyingly, I can find lots of people repeating this claim, but can't find a source at the 2015 announcement, other transcripts of what Elon has said, or ...)If we take 4*1.8*1.2 as gospel, and not unfolded, this is also for example consistent with a pie-wedge shape 4m high, 1.8m wide, with the segments being 1.2m along the outside diameter. this allows fitting 22 into the existing fairing.If the 'size of a refrigerator' is to be believed, then 1.8*1.2*1.2 would about work, with around 40 fitting, assuming rectangular boxes.Either of these would also be about consistent with Iridium satellite density, not way under it.The dimensions given are used for the orbital decay drag calculation, so most definitely the unfolded dimensions.I think Iridium birds are 2.4 m tall and 1.5 m thick, with 3.1 m being the unfolded span of the arrays. If the SpaceX birds are designed along the same lines, they would be 1.8 m tall, 1.2 m thick, with a 4 m array span. Assuming the folded width maintains around the same 80% size ratio to Iridium, they could fit at least 6 in a ring (Iridium fits 5). They could easily fit 3 rings high in the current fairing, plus a small ring of 3 on top, for a total of 21. If they get 7 per ring and 4 in a smaller ring on top, that's 25 per launch, or exactly 1/2 an orbital plane. It's also about 10,000 kg including dispensers, which is about what F9 Block 5 will launch to to 1000 km polar orbit with booster RTLS.
Quote from: docmordrid on 12/27/2017 05:58 amQuote from: speedevil on 12/27/2017 04:08 am>I have failed to find a nice mass or volume number for the satellites.>I've failed to find any source saying the volume for the satellite is between 3m^3 and 6m^3, and not (say) 1m^3.>Here ya go....I have problems with this. This gives the satellite body dimensions as 4*1.8*1.2m - 8.6m^3, so a completely naive view might be that ~6 satellites might fit inside the fairing.However, Iridium-next satellite dimensions are from one source given as 3.1 m x 2.4 m x 1.5 m - 11.1m^3, and that launched ten. Iridium weighs over twice as much.4*1.8*1.2 is also notably rather larger than a refrigerator (annoyingly, I can find lots of people repeating this claim, but can't find a source at the 2015 announcement, other transcripts of what Elon has said, or ...)If we take 4*1.8*1.2 as gospel, and not unfolded, this is also for example consistent with a pie-wedge shape 4m high, 1.8m wide, with the segments being 1.2m along the outside diameter. this allows fitting 22 into the existing fairing.If the 'size of a refrigerator' is to be believed, then 1.8*1.2*1.2 would about work, with around 40 fitting, assuming rectangular boxes.Either of these would also be about consistent with Iridium satellite density, not way under it.
Quote from: speedevil on 12/27/2017 04:08 am>I have failed to find a nice mass or volume number for the satellites.>I've failed to find any source saying the volume for the satellite is between 3m^3 and 6m^3, and not (say) 1m^3.>Here ya go....
>I have failed to find a nice mass or volume number for the satellites.>I've failed to find any source saying the volume for the satellite is between 3m^3 and 6m^3, and not (say) 1m^3.>
Tesla will be upgrading their nav system in early 2018, perfect timing to include hooks for new techs and map providers.Elon Musk ✔ @elonmuskMajor navigation overhaul coming in early 2018. Will be light-years ahead of current system, but we are testing it rigorously before rolling out.
Vastly better maps/nav coming soon
This discussion got stared in the FH thread but should be here.The discussion was about how many Starlink sats could fit in the faring or lengthened faring on the FH.If the dimensions of 4m X 1.8m X 1.2M are correct then even a lengthened faring would only hold 15 sats at a mass of ~7.5mt. Without a longer faring then only 10 sats.At only 10 sats per launch in order to get to 800 sats in 2 years of launching requires 40 launches a year of just Starlink sats in starting in mid 2019 and by mid 2021 would have 800 sats. But 40 addition launches per year above the already ~25 launches per year is a total of 65 launches per year. In order to achieve those rates Boca Chica would be launching at the rate of 12 per year, 40 and 39A at the rate of 2 /month each (weekly launches from the combined pads), and VAFB SLC-4E at at least 6/year. If the size is correct then this represents an explosion in the launch rate starting in mid 2019. Jumping from up to 30 to more than 60.
All of this keeps pointing out how SpaceX has a great need for BFR to be available sooner rather than latter in order to significantly save on costs of deployment for Starlink.
If we want to fit such a satellite in a 4.6m diameter fairing, one idea that springs to mind is a pie wedge design, with a 60cm core.If we imagine several whole pies stacked vertically at 1.3m spacing, with eleven satellites per pie, that comes out as 55 on 5 pies, with perhaps another 5 on top.The short side adjacent to the core would be mostly filled with folded solar panels, which have 16cm for 10 panels. At 386kg (say 450 total plus dispenser) per satellite, this is 24000kg.
The primary structure for the Microsat-2a and -2b test spacecraft will be a box design measuring 1.1m x 0.7m x 0.7m and carries the spacecraft flight computer, power system components, attitude determination and control components, propulsion components, GPS receiver, and broadband, telemetry, and command receivers and transmitters. The primary bus is mounted on the payload truss system, which also carries communications panels, inter-satellite optical link transmitters and receivers, star trackers, and a telemetry antenna. There are two 2x8 meter solar panels. Each demonstration spacecraft has a total mass of approximately 400kg
There are costs to letting your competitors get close, which may exceed the cost of sacrificing some revenue to outside investors for the initial period of deployment, or waiting for BFR.
Quote from: speedevil on 12/28/2017 11:11 pmThere are costs to letting your competitors get close, which may exceed the cost of sacrificing some revenue to outside investors for the initial period of deployment, or waiting for BFR.Financial know-it-nothing here, but it seems to me having a few dozen sats up and working would allow SpaceX to raise all of the money they would need without selling any equity. Even if they borrow the money at junk interest rates, it will be much cheaper than selling equity. IIAWO.
Quote from: speedevil on 12/28/2017 11:11 pmThere are costs to letting your competitors get close, which may exceed the cost of sacrificing some revenue to outside investors for the initial period of deployment, or waiting for BFR.Financial know-it-nothing here, but it seems to me having a few dozen sats up and working would allow SpaceX to raise all of the money they would need without selling any equity. Even if they borrow the money at junk interest rates, it will be much cheaper than selling equity. IIAWO.Matthew
You could issue shares and keep 60% to yourself (to maintain control), but later sell more shares but keep 60% of the new ones for yourself. Now you have sold the same 40% of the company twice. The original shares get diluted by the issue of new.
Elon Musk is becoming personally very wealthy via Tesla, I wonder how much of Starlink he can finance without outside investment. What did he make last year $2B?
Are the 4 octagons laser comms mirrors?