Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?

[Inoeth]

With SN5 successfully completing a 150m hop and is likely to do another flight. This demos that Starship is aimed and can in its current design support reusability. Multiple flights lots of data, post flight hardware inspections available, will rapidly accelerate the project toward orbital flight including at least SH recovery but possibly SS as well. This projects that currently Starship has a possible 3 or more month lead on SLS.

While I agree that seeing SN5 hop is a great sign i'm not counting any chickens until we see several more hop tests to really prove out that reliability/reusability and then move on to the far harder high altitude tests with the 'bellyflop' landing.

That being said SLS isn't going to fly until Late 21 if you're incredibly optimistic at the earliest and more likely mid-latter 2022 from various reporting (tho what happens with the Green Run will give us perhaps a better sense of where they are progress wise). Either way at the pace SpaceX is going the High Bay for building the Super Heavy booster looks like it'll be done in a month or so and I fully expect to see them progress to the higher altitude test flights by the end of this year.

flying the full stack, getting orbital and thus being the first SHLV seems entirely doable in the next 15 months for SpaceX even with what i'm sure are going to be some (spectacular and explosive) setbacks.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Time for an update as vehicles may actually launch in the coming months:

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1537096088821370880

NASA's Jim Free confirms that August 23-to-September 6 is the earliest window that the Artemis I mission could launch. This assumes a timely completion of the wet-dress test and finding few (if any) issues that require follow-up work.

Elon said yesterday that Starship & SH would be ready for launch in July (I interpreted that as vehicles ready only, not launch licence granted etc too).

So I think the first launches of both SHLVs could be quite close together. Of course that’s not necessarily the same as first successful launches!

[Vahe231991]

Time for an update as vehicles may actually launch in the coming months:

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1537096088821370880

NASA's Jim Free confirms that August 23-to-September 6 is the earliest window that the Artemis I mission could launch. This assumes a timely completion of the wet-dress test and finding few (if any) issues that require follow-up work.

NASA is now moving towards scheduling the first launch of the SLS for late August/early September of this year after having completed the final WDR test for the SLS, and the rollback of the SLS rocket into the VAB is scheduled for the beginning of July. Since SpaceX has to make a few tweaks to the environment surroundings near the launch site from which the Starship will be launched, the SLS is definitely fly first.
Elon said yesterday that Starship & SH would be ready for launch in July (I interpreted that as vehicles ready only, not launch licence granted etc too).

So I think the first launches of both SHLVs could be quite close together. Of course that’s not necessarily the same as first successful launches!