Quote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 12:47 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 04:17 amQuote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 04:08 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 02:17 amQuote from: VSECOTSPE on 10/25/2022 02:00 amArchitecture is important, but it’s not “first”. Form follows function. Goals first.Quote from: yg1968 on 10/24/2022 09:19 pmI should add that I am not convinced that this annual architecture review will have much of an impact.It’s hard to see how the vague, amorphorous goals that Melroy put out could drive any architecture decisions or changes.Artemis has a single, overriding, unambiguous and well-articulated goal, and the goal does indeed drive the architecture. The goal is to provide ongoing justification for the funding of SLS/Orion. All other goals are secondary and will be evaluated in terms of how they support the primary goal. The problem for those in the industry who want to work toward a viable and sustainable lunar presence is how to present suitable secondary goals in the hopes that they can eventually replace SLS/Orion. This is all very disheartening to those of us on the sidelines who would like to see the money spent effectively.That's not true. The Artemis program inherited SLS and Orion. Neither Bridenstine, nor VP Pence really liked SLS and were even willing to consider alternatives.Sorry, I was unclear. I did not specify who had this overriding goal. It was not any of the people you mentioned.I guess that you can argue that is the goal of certain members of Congress but it isn't the goal of NASA. The goal of NASA was explained yesterday by Melroy and it is the "sustained human presence and exploration throughout the solar system" (see the link below). For reasons that I have explained before, I believe that goal is sound. You can argue that SLS and Orion do not further that goal but I don't think that you can argue that the goal is the problem. https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=57221.msg2422857#msg2422857You are ignoring the golden rule: "the one with the gold, rules". NASA cannot propose an Artemis architecture that is not centered on SLS/Orion until something changes at the congressional level. This is the mandated core of the Artemis architecture. The program is built around the numbered missions, and each numbered mission is centered on an SLS/Orion launch. Melroy's statement of a different (and laudable) goal does not change the underlying architecture of Artemis in this decade.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 04:17 amQuote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 04:08 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 02:17 amQuote from: VSECOTSPE on 10/25/2022 02:00 amArchitecture is important, but it’s not “first”. Form follows function. Goals first.Quote from: yg1968 on 10/24/2022 09:19 pmI should add that I am not convinced that this annual architecture review will have much of an impact.It’s hard to see how the vague, amorphorous goals that Melroy put out could drive any architecture decisions or changes.Artemis has a single, overriding, unambiguous and well-articulated goal, and the goal does indeed drive the architecture. The goal is to provide ongoing justification for the funding of SLS/Orion. All other goals are secondary and will be evaluated in terms of how they support the primary goal. The problem for those in the industry who want to work toward a viable and sustainable lunar presence is how to present suitable secondary goals in the hopes that they can eventually replace SLS/Orion. This is all very disheartening to those of us on the sidelines who would like to see the money spent effectively.That's not true. The Artemis program inherited SLS and Orion. Neither Bridenstine, nor VP Pence really liked SLS and were even willing to consider alternatives.Sorry, I was unclear. I did not specify who had this overriding goal. It was not any of the people you mentioned.I guess that you can argue that is the goal of certain members of Congress but it isn't the goal of NASA. The goal of NASA was explained yesterday by Melroy and it is the "sustained human presence and exploration throughout the solar system" (see the link below). For reasons that I have explained before, I believe that goal is sound. You can argue that SLS and Orion do not further that goal but I don't think that you can argue that the goal is the problem. https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=57221.msg2422857#msg2422857
Quote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 04:08 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 02:17 amQuote from: VSECOTSPE on 10/25/2022 02:00 amArchitecture is important, but it’s not “first”. Form follows function. Goals first.Quote from: yg1968 on 10/24/2022 09:19 pmI should add that I am not convinced that this annual architecture review will have much of an impact.It’s hard to see how the vague, amorphorous goals that Melroy put out could drive any architecture decisions or changes.Artemis has a single, overriding, unambiguous and well-articulated goal, and the goal does indeed drive the architecture. The goal is to provide ongoing justification for the funding of SLS/Orion. All other goals are secondary and will be evaluated in terms of how they support the primary goal. The problem for those in the industry who want to work toward a viable and sustainable lunar presence is how to present suitable secondary goals in the hopes that they can eventually replace SLS/Orion. This is all very disheartening to those of us on the sidelines who would like to see the money spent effectively.That's not true. The Artemis program inherited SLS and Orion. Neither Bridenstine, nor VP Pence really liked SLS and were even willing to consider alternatives.Sorry, I was unclear. I did not specify who had this overriding goal. It was not any of the people you mentioned.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 02:17 amQuote from: VSECOTSPE on 10/25/2022 02:00 amArchitecture is important, but it’s not “first”. Form follows function. Goals first.Quote from: yg1968 on 10/24/2022 09:19 pmI should add that I am not convinced that this annual architecture review will have much of an impact.It’s hard to see how the vague, amorphorous goals that Melroy put out could drive any architecture decisions or changes.Artemis has a single, overriding, unambiguous and well-articulated goal, and the goal does indeed drive the architecture. The goal is to provide ongoing justification for the funding of SLS/Orion. All other goals are secondary and will be evaluated in terms of how they support the primary goal. The problem for those in the industry who want to work toward a viable and sustainable lunar presence is how to present suitable secondary goals in the hopes that they can eventually replace SLS/Orion. This is all very disheartening to those of us on the sidelines who would like to see the money spent effectively.That's not true. The Artemis program inherited SLS and Orion. Neither Bridenstine, nor VP Pence really liked SLS and were even willing to consider alternatives.
Quote from: VSECOTSPE on 10/25/2022 02:00 amArchitecture is important, but it’s not “first”. Form follows function. Goals first.Quote from: yg1968 on 10/24/2022 09:19 pmI should add that I am not convinced that this annual architecture review will have much of an impact.It’s hard to see how the vague, amorphorous goals that Melroy put out could drive any architecture decisions or changes.Artemis has a single, overriding, unambiguous and well-articulated goal, and the goal does indeed drive the architecture. The goal is to provide ongoing justification for the funding of SLS/Orion. All other goals are secondary and will be evaluated in terms of how they support the primary goal. The problem for those in the industry who want to work toward a viable and sustainable lunar presence is how to present suitable secondary goals in the hopes that they can eventually replace SLS/Orion. This is all very disheartening to those of us on the sidelines who would like to see the money spent effectively.
Architecture is important, but it’s not “first”. Form follows function. Goals first.Quote from: yg1968 on 10/24/2022 09:19 pmI should add that I am not convinced that this annual architecture review will have much of an impact.It’s hard to see how the vague, amorphorous goals that Melroy put out could drive any architecture decisions or changes.
I should add that I am not convinced that this annual architecture review will have much of an impact.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 04:58 pmYou are ignoring the golden rule: "the one with the gold, rules". NASA cannot propose an Artemis architecture that is not centered on SLS/Orion until something changes at the congressional level. This is the mandated core of the Artemis architecture. The program is built around the numbered missions, and each numbered mission is centered on an SLS/Orion launch. Melroy's statement of a different (and laudable) goal does not change the underlying architecture of Artemis in this decade.Right but the goals can have an impact on future programs such as the lunar surface habitats. It is important that habitats be a private, public partnership. For the time being, surface habitats is my biggest concern for Artemis. I am anxious to see what will be proposed in the 2022 architecture review.
You are ignoring the golden rule: "the one with the gold, rules". NASA cannot propose an Artemis architecture that is not centered on SLS/Orion until something changes at the congressional level. This is the mandated core of the Artemis architecture. The program is built around the numbered missions, and each numbered mission is centered on an SLS/Orion launch. Melroy's statement of a different (and laudable) goal does not change the underlying architecture of Artemis in this decade.
Quote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 05:30 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 04:58 pmYou are ignoring the golden rule: "the one with the gold, rules". NASA cannot propose an Artemis architecture that is not centered on SLS/Orion until something changes at the congressional level. This is the mandated core of the Artemis architecture. The program is built around the numbered missions, and each numbered mission is centered on an SLS/Orion launch. Melroy's statement of a different (and laudable) goal does not change the underlying architecture of Artemis in this decade.Right but the goals can have an impact on future programs such as the lunar surface habitats. It is important that habitats be a private, public partnership. For the time being, surface habitats is my biggest concern for Artemis. I am anxious to see what will be proposed in the 2022 architecture review.But the underlying architecture only allows for a crew do 4 every year at the most, and unless something changes, this will get rolled into the specifications for the habitats. I would like to see a habitat/Moonbase that is specified for continuous occupation by overlapping crews of 20 launching every 2 months for four-month missions, or some such. But that implies the end of SLS/Orion and you apparently cannot even discuss it. So we will end up with a habitat that is less roomy than a Starship HLS.
It doesn't necessarily imply the end of SLS and Orion as you could have a commercial HLV and spacecraft in addition to SLS and Orion. For the surface habitats, it's important that NASA allow private astronauts to use them. So I hope that the surface habitats are acquired by NASA as a service and that other users are also encouraged to use them.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 05:41 pmQuote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 05:30 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 04:58 pmYou are ignoring the golden rule: "the one with the gold, rules". NASA cannot propose an Artemis architecture that is not centered on SLS/Orion until something changes at the congressional level. This is the mandated core of the Artemis architecture. The program is built around the numbered missions, and each numbered mission is centered on an SLS/Orion launch. Melroy's statement of a different (and laudable) goal does not change the underlying architecture of Artemis in this decade.Right but the goals can have an impact on future programs such as the lunar surface habitats. It is important that habitats be a private, public partnership. For the time being, surface habitats is my biggest concern for Artemis. I am anxious to see what will be proposed in the 2022 architecture review.But the underlying architecture only allows for a crew do 4 every year at the most, and unless something changes, this will get rolled into the specifications for the habitats. I would like to see a habitat/Moonbase that is specified for continuous occupation by overlapping crews of 20 launching every 2 months for four-month missions, or some such. But that implies the end of SLS/Orion and you apparently cannot even discuss it. So we will end up with a habitat that is less roomy than a Starship HLS.It doesn't necessarily imply the end of SLS and Orion as you could have a commercial HLV and spacecraft in addition to SLS and Orion. For the surface habitats, it's important that NASA allow private astronauts to use them. So I hope that the surface habitats are acquired by NASA as a service and that other users are also encouraged to use them.
Quote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 05:50 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 05:41 pmQuote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 05:30 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 04:58 pmYou are ignoring the golden rule: "the one with the gold, rules". NASA cannot propose an Artemis architecture that is not centered on SLS/Orion until something changes at the congressional level. This is the mandated core of the Artemis architecture. The program is built around the numbered missions, and each numbered mission is centered on an SLS/Orion launch. Melroy's statement of a different (and laudable) goal does not change the underlying architecture of Artemis in this decade.Right but the goals can have an impact on future programs such as the lunar surface habitats. It is important that habitats be a private, public partnership. For the time being, surface habitats is my biggest concern for Artemis. I am anxious to see what will be proposed in the 2022 architecture review.But the underlying architecture only allows for a crew do 4 every year at the most, and unless something changes, this will get rolled into the specifications for the habitats. I would like to see a habitat/Moonbase that is specified for continuous occupation by overlapping crews of 20 launching every 2 months for four-month missions, or some such. But that implies the end of SLS/Orion and you apparently cannot even discuss it. So we will end up with a habitat that is less roomy than a Starship HLS.It doesn't necessarily imply the end of SLS and Orion as you could have a commercial HLV and spacecraft in addition to SLS and Orion. For the surface habitats, it's important that NASA allow private astronauts to use them. So I hope that the surface habitats are acquired by NASA as a service and that other users are also encouraged to use them.So one of the regularly-scheduled bi-monthly HLS(v2.0) flights will pick up the Orion crew in NRHO when it picks up the twenty passengers from the bi-monthly passenger Starship?
Quote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 05:30 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 04:58 pmYou are ignoring the golden rule: "the one with the gold, rules". NASA cannot propose an Artemis architecture that is not centered on SLS/Orion until something changes at the congressional level. This is the mandated core of the Artemis architecture. The program is built around the numbered missions, and each numbered mission is centered on an SLS/Orion launch. Melroy's statement of a different (and laudable) goal does not change the underlying architecture of Artemis in this decade.Right but the goals can have an impact on future programs such as the lunar surface habitats. It is important that habitats be a private, public partnership. For the time being, surface habitats is my biggest concern for Artemis. I am anxious to see what will be proposed in the 2022 architecture review.But the underlying architecture only allows for a crew do 4 every year at the most, and unless something changes, this will get rolled into the specifications for the habitats. I would like to see a habitat/Moonbase that is specified for continuous occupation by overlapping crews of 20 launching every 2 months for four-month missions, or some such. But that implies the end of SLS/Orion and you apparently cannot even discuss it. So we will end up with a habitat that less roomy than a Starship HLS.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 06:30 pmQuote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 05:50 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 05:41 pmQuote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 05:30 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 04:58 pmYou are ignoring the golden rule: "the one with the gold, rules". NASA cannot propose an Artemis architecture that is not centered on SLS/Orion until something changes at the congressional level. This is the mandated core of the Artemis architecture. The program is built around the numbered missions, and each numbered mission is centered on an SLS/Orion launch. Melroy's statement of a different (and laudable) goal does not change the underlying architecture of Artemis in this decade.Right but the goals can have an impact on future programs such as the lunar surface habitats. It is important that habitats be a private, public partnership. For the time being, surface habitats is my biggest concern for Artemis. I am anxious to see what will be proposed in the 2022 architecture review.But the underlying architecture only allows for a crew do 4 every year at the most, and unless something changes, this will get rolled into the specifications for the habitats. I would like to see a habitat/Moonbase that is specified for continuous occupation by overlapping crews of 20 launching every 2 months for four-month missions, or some such. But that implies the end of SLS/Orion and you apparently cannot even discuss it. So we will end up with a habitat that is less roomy than a Starship HLS.It doesn't necessarily imply the end of SLS and Orion as you could have a commercial HLV and spacecraft in addition to SLS and Orion. For the surface habitats, it's important that NASA allow private astronauts to use them. So I hope that the surface habitats are acquired by NASA as a service and that other users are also encouraged to use them.So one of the regularly-scheduled bi-monthly HLS(v2.0) flights will pick up the Orion crew in NRHO when it picks up the twenty passengers from the bi-monthly passenger Starship? As is the case for commercial crew, I would expect private astronauts to fly on separate non-NASA HLS missions. Private astronaut missions could come to the lunar surface when NASA isn't there, in order to be able to use some of the assets that NASA normally uses (such as surface habitats).
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 05:41 pmQuote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 05:30 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 04:58 pmYou are ignoring the golden rule: "the one with the gold, rules". NASA cannot propose an Artemis architecture that is not centered on SLS/Orion until something changes at the congressional level. This is the mandated core of the Artemis architecture. The program is built around the numbered missions, and each numbered mission is centered on an SLS/Orion launch. Melroy's statement of a different (and laudable) goal does not change the underlying architecture of Artemis in this decade.Right but the goals can have an impact on future programs such as the lunar surface habitats. It is important that habitats be a private, public partnership. For the time being, surface habitats is my biggest concern for Artemis. I am anxious to see what will be proposed in the 2022 architecture review.But the underlying architecture only allows for a crew do 4 every year at the most, and unless something changes, this will get rolled into the specifications for the habitats. I would like to see a habitat/Moonbase that is specified for continuous occupation by overlapping crews of 20 launching every 2 months for four-month missions, or some such. But that implies the end of SLS/Orion and you apparently cannot even discuss it. So we will end up with a habitat that less roomy than a Starship HLS.I question the assumption that surface assets will *necessarily* be encumbered with requirements that specifically draw from Orion/SLS limitations. Sure, it's possible it turns out that way, but it is also possible that a surface habitat could be built to to function for Orion-length visits/cadences but ALSO be able to host longer stays.Case in point, is the gateway built in such a way that visitors can only stay 4 weeks per year? Or could it host visitors for 8 weeks a year (with appropriate supplies)?Another case: Could the HLS lander handle 6 astronauts instead of 4? Just because the requirements are for 2 astronauts, doesn't mean that vehicle is limited to that.I would argue that "sustainable" could and should be understood to mean (among other things) fit for future purposes beyond what is immediately planned for today. ISS for example has hosted tourists, although it was not designed for it.
Quote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 05:50 pmIt doesn't necessarily imply the end of SLS and Orion as you could have a commercial HLV and spacecraft in addition to SLS and Orion. For the surface habitats, it's important that NASA allow private astronauts to use them. So I hope that the surface habitats are acquired by NASA as a service and that other users are also encouraged to use them.Emphasis mine. The surface habitats need to be commercially owned and operated, and maybe NASA could occasionally rent space in them. But looking long term (which we should all be doing), what we actually need is commercially owned and operated mines, smelters and manufacturing and food production facilities - on the moon. Then the people that are working on the moon, whether permanently or in 6-12 month shifts, could make their own stuff for a fraction of the price than we could make it here and then ship it to the moon for people there to use. The goal of lunar bound flights should be to support the people working there as they build a lunar economy to the point where they don't need earth-based HLVs anymore, just personnel and logistical support on commercially owned and operated spacecraft. That's what Artemis should be aiming for, to enable something like that.
At this point we are piling speculations on top of each other. In particular I am speculating that the NASA habitat requirements will be based on the SLS/Orion cadence and crew limitations, so any vendor's design that meets these requirements can remain in contention. This is consistent with the Appendix P HLS and the Option B HLS requirements. Sure, any vendor might choose to bid a more capable habitat or HLS, but this would be in spite of NASA's goals, not because of them. If NASA truly had a goal of "sustainable human presence", there would be a strong preference for a bigger habitat or a bigger Moonbase and for a bigger Appendix P HLS.Gateway is a side show. It exists because the Artemis architecture is centered on SLS/Orion and SLS/Orion cannot land a crew on the Moon directly. If Artemis could sustain a human presence on the Moon, I doubt anyone would want to stay on Gateway.
<snip>But none of this happens without the NASA architecture being rational and designed with the end in mind. Without them, it's a crappy private investment.
At this point we are piling speculations on top of each other. In particular I am speculating that the NASA habitat requirements will be based on the SLS/Orion cadence and crew limitations, so any vendor's design that meets these requirements can remain in contention. This is consistent with the Appendix P HLS and the Option B HLS requirements. Sure, any vendor might choose to bid a more capable habitat or HLS, but this would be in spite of NASA's goals, not because of them. If NASA truly had a goal of "sustainable human presence", there would be a strong preference for a bigger habitat or a bigger Moonbase and for a bigger Appendix P HLS.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 08:36 pmAt this point we are piling speculations on top of each other. In particular I am speculating that the NASA habitat requirements will be based on the SLS/Orion cadence and crew limitations, so any vendor's design that meets these requirements can remain in contention. This is consistent with the Appendix P HLS and the Option B HLS requirements. Sure, any vendor might choose to bid a more capable habitat or HLS, but this would be in spite of NASA's goals, not because of them. If NASA truly had a goal of "sustainable human presence", there would be a strong preference for a bigger habitat or a bigger Moonbase and for a bigger Appendix P HLS.I disagree that a more capable HLS was in spite of NASA's goals. NASA had minimal HLS requirements (landing of 4 crew) but providers are not discouraged from providing extra capabilities. One of NASA's goals for HLS was also to be one of many customers and a more capable HLV helps in that respect. The same is true for habitats, I don't think that NASA will discourage providers from having extra space. But I hope that a modular design will be encouraged. I hope that modular habitat-campers are possible.
Quote from: yg1968 on 10/25/2022 09:59 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/25/2022 08:36 pmAt this point we are piling speculations on top of each other. In particular I am speculating that the NASA habitat requirements will be based on the SLS/Orion cadence and crew limitations, so any vendor's design that meets these requirements can remain in contention. This is consistent with the Appendix P HLS and the Option B HLS requirements. Sure, any vendor might choose to bid a more capable habitat or HLS, but this would be in spite of NASA's goals, not because of them. If NASA truly had a goal of "sustainable human presence", there would be a strong preference for a bigger habitat or a bigger Moonbase and for a bigger Appendix P HLS.I disagree that a more capable HLS was in spite of NASA's goals. NASA had minimal HLS requirements (landing of 4 crew) but providers are not discouraged from providing extra capabilities. One of NASA's goals for HLS was also to be one of many customers and a more capable HLV helps in that respect. The same is true for habitats, I don't think that NASA will discourage providers from having extra space. But I hope that a modular design will be encouraged. I hope that modular habitat-campers are possible.I did not say Starship HLS is overqualified in spite of NASA's requirements (it was happenstance.) I said HLS Appendix P and option B, which I am speculating will stick to the "sustainable" requirements that are constrained to the Orion crew size instead of being increased to something more consistent with a more ambitious goal.
Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 10/25/2022 08:43 pm<snip>But none of this happens without the NASA architecture being rational and designed with the end in mind. Without them, it's a crappy private investment.The NASA Lunar architecture isn't rational as long as it is saddle with the SLS/Orion Lunar orbit crew transport approach. Which is too expensive and flies infrequently to sustain any sort Lunar surface program with maybe 4 occasional persons staying on the Lunar surface for about 30 days every 18 months or so.NASA or anyone else needs cheaper way to get more people on the Lunar surface and staying longer than 30 days for a sustainable Lunar program. Otherwise it is just a glorified boots & flag program.
It means that the "experiment" of landing a vehicle on the Moon under propulsion followed by a close visual inspection was performed six seven* times during the Apollo era, and there was no evidence at all that lunar regolith did any damage to the lander.
There was a LOT of discussion of the LM's ascent engine and it was tested over and over again.
It's different with the Starship(1) the descent engines ARE the ascent engines and, even though they're higher up, are exposed to any flying debris resulting from the landing.(2) the propellants are NOT hypergolic and igniting the engines requires the successful completion of a whole series of ignition sequence events. If any one of them fails to complete there is no ignition.