With a bid of $82.7M this seems kind of low. I would have thought they would bid between $90M-100M for this launch contract. I hope that SpaceX isn't in for a rude shock with all the special requirements(and extra costs) for a DOD payload.
With a bid of $82.7 Million I wonder if any harsh language is being exchanged at ULA right now?
Quote from: Brovane on 04/28/2016 02:47 amWith a bid of $82.7M this seems kind of low. I would have thought they would bid between $90M-100M for this launch contract. I hope that SpaceX isn't in for a rude shock with all the special requirements(and extra costs) for a DOD payload. They are probably willing to risk eating some of the cost of the first few DoD missions in order to get their foot in the door, and $10M or so loss here and there isn't going to break them. And they reportedly bid about $80M in 2012 for a GPS launch, so their new bid hasn't even kept up with inflation, so they're definitely being aggressive.QuoteWith a bid of $82.7 Million I wonder if any harsh language is being exchanged at ULA right now? Well, if anything, it certainly justifies their no-bid, so at least they saved a few million B&P money. But they've reportedly said they will bid next time. That's when it gets interesting.
<snip>Wasn't a Atlas-V 401 going for about $160 Million under the block-buy?
With efficiency gains cancelling out inflation, $82-83 mil may be a sustainable price for mission assurance + launch services for government contracts.
As far as those costs, Tobey said SpaceX was able to offer launch services as low as $60 million per flight, whereas the lowest ULA could offer was $125 million. However, he added, that did not include an $800 million "capability contract" that the military pays ULA annually to guarantee readiness and the ability to essentially launch on demand. If you factor in these funds, which SpaceX does not receive, the lowest cost launches that ULA can offer are about $200 million.
@flatoday_jdean: A new sight in Air Force launch contracting. (Note "two proposals received" apparently both from SpaceX.)
@gruss_sn: Also what I've heard.
Horizontal and vertical integration options?
Quote from: sewebster on 04/28/2016 06:55 amHorizontal and vertical integration options?Possibly. Do we know if GPS sats can be horizontally integrated?I was going to say that given the contract value I'm guessing the cheaper option was selected, but now I'm not so sure!
Quote from: Jim on 04/27/2016 10:17 pmThe spacecraft will be doing the perigee raising.Thanks! Any particular reason why? Doesn't the Centaur inject GPS sats into their final orbit for Atlas V missions? What about Delta IV?
The spacecraft will be doing the perigee raising.
Quote from: mhlas7 on 04/27/2016 11:39 pmQuote from: Jim on 04/27/2016 10:17 pmThe spacecraft will be doing the perigee raising.Thanks! Any particular reason why? Doesn't the Centaur inject GPS sats into their final orbit for Atlas V missions? What about Delta IV?I recall (perhaps wrongly) that one reason was not to create more space junk. At this altitude, if the booster circularizes, then it will hang around for millions of years after it releases the satellite. It's too expensive (in delta-V) to de-orbit it. If you just use a transfer orbit, the booster can be easily de-orbited, or naturally decay.
With all the mission assurance requirements, I don't see how there could be a cheaper option than $83M. Those mission assurance requirements alone were expected to cost an additional $20M.
Quote from: Kabloona on 04/28/2016 07:09 amWith all the mission assurance requirements, I don't see how there could be a cheaper option than $83M. Those mission assurance requirements alone were expected to cost an additional $20M.It's not clear to me what that $20 million is actually buying. Is it just paperwork, or is the rocket physically different than for a typical comsat?
Quote from: Jim on 04/28/2016 12:00 amQuote from: Kabloona on 04/27/2016 11:17 pmQuote from: enzo on 04/27/2016 11:12 pmQuote"This GPS III Launch Services contract award achieves a balance between mission success, meeting operational needs, lowering launch costs, and reintroducing competition for National Security Space missions," said Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, Air Force Program Executive Officer for Space and SMC commander.Hm, I wonder which of these USAF is sacrificing for the other three? None of SpaceX's other customers feel it necessary to insult them for perceived failure risk. Especially rude given that certification was completed.It's not an insult, it's an implicit acknowledgment of the fact that Atlas V has more flown successfully more than twice as many times as Falcon 9 to date.And I doubt Elon or Gwynne are feeling insulted. They just won their first National Security mission. The champagne is flowing somewhere...though there wasn't any doubt about the win since ULA no-bid.It is just GPSJust a GPS is an upgrade from just Tang and T-Shirts.
Quote from: Kabloona on 04/27/2016 11:17 pmQuote from: enzo on 04/27/2016 11:12 pmQuote"This GPS III Launch Services contract award achieves a balance between mission success, meeting operational needs, lowering launch costs, and reintroducing competition for National Security Space missions," said Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, Air Force Program Executive Officer for Space and SMC commander.Hm, I wonder which of these USAF is sacrificing for the other three? None of SpaceX's other customers feel it necessary to insult them for perceived failure risk. Especially rude given that certification was completed.It's not an insult, it's an implicit acknowledgment of the fact that Atlas V has more flown successfully more than twice as many times as Falcon 9 to date.And I doubt Elon or Gwynne are feeling insulted. They just won their first National Security mission. The champagne is flowing somewhere...though there wasn't any doubt about the win since ULA no-bid.It is just GPS
Quote from: enzo on 04/27/2016 11:12 pmQuote"This GPS III Launch Services contract award achieves a balance between mission success, meeting operational needs, lowering launch costs, and reintroducing competition for National Security Space missions," said Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, Air Force Program Executive Officer for Space and SMC commander.Hm, I wonder which of these USAF is sacrificing for the other three? None of SpaceX's other customers feel it necessary to insult them for perceived failure risk. Especially rude given that certification was completed.It's not an insult, it's an implicit acknowledgment of the fact that Atlas V has more flown successfully more than twice as many times as Falcon 9 to date.And I doubt Elon or Gwynne are feeling insulted. They just won their first National Security mission. The champagne is flowing somewhere...though there wasn't any doubt about the win since ULA no-bid.
Quote"This GPS III Launch Services contract award achieves a balance between mission success, meeting operational needs, lowering launch costs, and reintroducing competition for National Security Space missions," said Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, Air Force Program Executive Officer for Space and SMC commander.Hm, I wonder which of these USAF is sacrificing for the other three? None of SpaceX's other customers feel it necessary to insult them for perceived failure risk. Especially rude given that certification was completed.
"This GPS III Launch Services contract award achieves a balance between mission success, meeting operational needs, lowering launch costs, and reintroducing competition for National Security Space missions," said Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, Air Force Program Executive Officer for Space and SMC commander.
GPS-3 satellites use the Lockheed Martin commercial A2100 bus, so besides the orbit it will be a similar launch to a commercial launch ( GPS is not a unique platform, no real time sensitivity other than a normal launch, and horizontal integration) Pretty much the ideal DoD mission for SpaceX.
One quibble with that, You will be targeting a specific inclined plane. So you will have some real time launch window sensitivity. GEO planes are not inclined, so no time sensitivity on the window. That said, it should be no worse than Iridium or CRS launches.
James Dean @flatoday_jdean 54m54 minutes agoAn Air Force official today said SpaceX's winning GPS III bid was 40% below government estimates.
Mike Gruss @Gruss_SN 1h1 hour agoSMC's Lt. Gen. Sam Greaves says SpaceX's $82.7M launch contract is about 40 percent lower than previous government estimates.
QuoteJames Dean @flatoday_jdean 54m54 minutes agoAn Air Force official today said SpaceX's winning GPS III bid was 40% below government estimates.https://twitter.com/flatoday_jdean/status/725731649921646593So government estimates must have been around the 135 - 140M range.