Poll

Will there be a rocket family that launches more times than the R-7 Semyorka?

Yes
37 (75.5%)
No
7 (14.3%)
Maybe
5 (10.2%)

Total Members Voted: 49


Author Topic: Will there be a rocket family that launches more times than the R-7 Semyorka?  (Read 8162 times)

Offline Tywin

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Online daedalus1

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Starship,  because a high rate is what it's designed to do.

Offline CondensedM

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Starship when mars flights start!!!

Offline nicp

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Yes.
But not Starship (the current version anyway) and not anytime soon.
Elon (and it may not be his company who does this) loves the airliner comparison.
I believe there will be space truck or airliner vehicles, and that technology is heading toward that.
Be we aren't there yet and won't be in R-7 numbers until about the end of the decade.

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Offline AllenB

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Since no time limit is given, I voted "yes". The only reasonable alternatives would seem to be things like "we gave up on space" and "we crashed down to a non-technological society".

Starship may not be what gets there, but something will.

Offline Robotbeat

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Yes.
But not Starship (the current version anyway) and not anytime soon.
Elon (and it may not be his company who does this) loves the airliner comparison.
I believe there will be space truck or airliner vehicles, and that technology is heading toward that.
Be we aren't there yet and won't be in R-7 numbers until about the end of the decade.
I mean… “not current version of starship” is a pretty lame cop-out as they’re changing versions rapidly LOL.

Falcon did 61 launches last year and is shooting for 100 this. That would put it at higher than the peak launch rate of the R7 family (80-something in one of the years in the 60s, 70s, or 80s).

R7 family did 1965 launches. 1917 if we don’t count the ICBM versions (which were not orbital launch attempts).

At last year’s launch rates that’d take Falcon 9 another 3 decades or so. At this year’s just 2 decades.

Just to launch the 30,000 satellite constellation, Starlink will require 600 launches of Starship assuming 50 satellites per launch.

Starship could get there within a decade, although with the infrastructure they’re building, they could do it in one or two years with daily launches from each of the 4 launch sites (Boca Chica, LC39A, and two more at LC-49). (And they want multiple launches per day per launch site. And more launch sites.)

Stoke could also do it. In some ways, it’s a lot easier for Stoke. Deploying a 2000 satellite megaconstellation one satellite at a time would do it.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline DanClemmensen

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Since this is a silly question, I will provide a silly answer. To beat the R-7 record a launcher family will need 1900+ launches. At 100/yr, that's 19 years. But human civilization as we know it will not last another 19 years. The technological singularity will occur before then. Whether or not the concept of a "rocket family" has any meaning after the Singularity is unknowable.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

Offline Robotbeat

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Since this is a silly question, I will provide a silly answer. To beat the R-7 record a launcher family will need 1900+ launches. At 100/yr, that's 19 years. But human civilization as we know it will not last another 19 years. The technological singularity will occur before then. Whether or not the concept of a "rocket family" has any meaning after the Singularity is unknowable.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
I bet it won’t.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline mandrewa

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I'm puzzled by the literal question since the R-7 Semyorka only launched 27 times and nine of its launches failed.

I'm also puzzled by the question in a more general sense.  I'm guessing that Tywin means this in a very general sense, and hence he is including not only all past Russian ballistics missile launches, but also all future Russian nuclear ballistic missile launches.  And he is adding all of the Soyuz launches to that.

So the answer is that unless the human species is on the edge of extinction then of course there will eventually be another rocket family with more orbital launches than the Russian ballistic missile family.

Offline trimeta

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Yes.
But not Starship (the current version anyway) and not anytime soon.
Elon (and it may not be his company who does this) loves the airliner comparison.
I believe there will be space truck or airliner vehicles, and that technology is heading toward that.
Be we aren't there yet and won't be in R-7 numbers until about the end of the decade.
If we're counting "anything with a Korolev Cross" as an R-7 derivative, surely "anything made from stainless steel by SpaceX" counts as a Starship derivative.

Online AmigaClone

Yes.
But not Starship (the current version anyway) and not anytime soon.
Elon (and it may not be his company who does this) loves the airliner comparison.
I believe there will be space truck or airliner vehicles, and that technology is heading toward that.
Be we aren't there yet and won't be in R-7 numbers until about the end of the decade.
If we're counting "anything with a Korolev Cross" as an R-7 derivative, surely "anything made from stainless steel by SpaceX" counts as a Starship derivative.

I would include the engines for at least the first stage as part of the definition. For the R-7 family it would include the RD-107 and RD-108 or engines derived from those two. The Starship definition would include the SpaceX Raptor or an engine derived from the same.

Note that applying the engine setup as part of the 'rocket family definition' the Soyuz 2-v is NOT a part of the R-7 family.

Offline Robotbeat

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Any R7 without a Korolev Cross is a sacrilege and should not be counted.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline Vahe231991

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I'm puzzled by the literal question since the R-7 Semyorka only launched 27 times and nine of its launches failed.

I'm also puzzled by the question in a more general sense.  I'm guessing that Tywin means this in a very general sense, and hence he is including not only all past Russian ballistics missile launches, but also all future Russian nuclear ballistic missile launches.  And he is adding all of the Soyuz launches to that.

So the answer is that unless the human species is on the edge of extinction then of course there will eventually be another rocket family with more orbital launches than the Russian ballistic missile family.
The R-7 ICBM was the basis for the SLVs used to launch the Sputnik satellites, Vostok, Voskhod, and Soyuz manned spacecraft, and a panoply of civil communications, early warning, and SIGINT satellites. The R-7 sans suffixe was launched 27 includes, while the operational version, the R-7A, was launched 21 times. The R-7 would find more widespread use as an SLV because its launch environment made it vulnerable to nuclear strikes whenever it was used as an ICBM.

Offline mandrewa

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I'm puzzled by the literal question since the R-7 Semyorka only launched 27 times and nine of its launches failed.

I'm also puzzled by the question in a more general sense.  I'm guessing that Tywin means this in a very general sense, and hence he is including not only all past Russian ballistics missile launches, but also all future Russian nuclear ballistic missile launches.  And he is adding all of the Soyuz launches to that.

So the answer is that unless the human species is on the edge of extinction then of course there will eventually be another rocket family with more orbital launches than the Russian ballistic missile family.
The R-7 ICBM was the basis for the SLVs used to launch the Sputnik satellites, Vostok, Voskhod, and Soyuz manned spacecraft, and a panoply of civil communications, early warning, and SIGINT satellites. The R-7 sans suffixe was launched 27 includes, while the operational version, the R-7A, was launched 21 times. The R-7 would find more widespread use as an SLV because its launch environment made it vulnerable to nuclear strikes whenever it was used as an ICBM.

It's hard to read people's minds but maybe Tywin meant something like: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_R-7_launches

And I think that's the same as what you are saying, Vahe.

Or to say it another way here's a count of launch attempts from the different rockets or rocket families that are being grouped together:

27 R-7 Semyorka
21 R-7A
300 Voskhod
158 Vostok
147 Soyez

And I'm not sure about the count of Soyez launches.  I have a feeling I've made a mistake there.  But if I didn't, then there have been 653 launches of rockets that use the Korolev Cross. And that number is still growing.

But at this point in time that I'm writing this there are six people in the poll that believe that the human species will never surpass this total.  And there are a further five that think this might be the case.  And that's getting close to one-third half the total number of people that have voted.
« Last Edit: 03/02/2023 04:18 pm by mandrewa »

Offline Robotbeat

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Not that hard to understand this referred to the R7 family, as that’s the rocket family with by far the highest orbital launch history. Any other reading would be non-sensical.

It helps to read things with an eye to comprehension.
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Offline Robotbeat

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There have been almost 2000 R7 family orbital launch attempts. Almost all of them have had a Korolev cross. Seriously, only 9 launch attempts (Soyuz -2-1v, using NK-33 first stage) didn’t use a 4-boosters-around-a-center-core type configuration using the RD-107/108(a) engine family.

“Read a book” please. Or at least the relevant Wikipedia article ;). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-7_(rocket_family)
« Last Edit: 03/03/2023 04:51 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline mandrewa

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There have been almost 2000 R7 family orbital launch attempts. Almost all of them have had a Korolev cross. Seriously, only 9 launch attempts (Soyuz -2-1v, using NK-33 first stage) didn’t use a 4-boosters-around-a-center-core type configuration using the RD-107/108(a) engine family.

“Read a book” please. Or at least the relevant Wikipedia article ;). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-7_(rocket_family)

Well thanks for that information, Robotbeat.  Oddly enough I searched for the R-7 rocket on Wikipedia.  Why there's even a link to such a Wikipedia page in my comment.  You did read my comment, didn't you?  You are talking to me, aren't you?

It is called "List of R7 launches."  Now one would think that would give me a way to count the launches.  But no it's quite hard to do that with that page.

And I found many other Wikipedia pages that are relevant to some aspect of this large family of families of rockets that I now know is sometimes called called the R-7 rocket family.

And I wish I had found the Wikipedia page that you found, ie. "R-7 (rocket family)." That's a nicely organized table.  But oddly enough, despite the fact that I was searching for that page, I didn't find it!  I found many other pages though.  Wikipedia has an amazing number of different pages on what is essentially the same subject.  (And do some of them not cross-link with each other?)

Offline mandrewa

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So to summarize there have been 23 different rockets in the R-7 family that have flown at least once.  And there are an additional four rockets in this family that have never launched.  The rockets differ in many details, like the engines, but with the exception of the Soyuz -2-1v, they all have the Korolev Cross.

The first rocket to use the Korolev Cross was the R-7 Semyorka (not to be confused with the R-7A Semyorka) which was an ICBM.  And in fact it was the original ICBM.  And it was first launched in 1957.  Sputnik was launched on a R-7 family rocket.

There are currently three rockets in this family that are still active: Soyuz-2.1a, Soyuz-2.1b, and Soyuz-2.1v.

So as of today, or approximately today, there have been 1,965 attempted launches from this rocket family, and that number is slowly growing.

I think there is no question that there will someday be a rocket family that has more launches than this family.  A more interesting question might be whether there will be another rocket family that exceeds this total within this century. 

And my optimistic guess would be yes!

Offline hkultala

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So to summarize there have been 23 different rockets in the R-7 family that have flown at least once.  And there are an additional four rockets in this family that have never launched.  The rockets differ in many details, like the engines, but with the exception of the Soyuz -2-1v, they all have the Korolev Cross.

The first rocket to use the Korolev Cross was the R-7 Semyorka (not to be confused with the R-7A Semyorka) which was an ICBM.  And in fact it was the original ICBM.  And it was first launched in 1957.  Sputnik was launched on a R-7 family rocket.

There are currently three rockets in this family that are still active: Soyuz-2.1a, Soyuz-2.1b, and Soyuz-2.1v.

There is nothing original R-7 left in Soyuz-2.1v

So I would not count Soyuz-2.1v in.

Offline nicp

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Yes.
But not Starship (the current version anyway) and not anytime soon.
Elon (and it may not be his company who does this) loves the airliner comparison.
I believe there will be space truck or airliner vehicles, and that technology is heading toward that.
Be we aren't there yet and won't be in R-7 numbers until about the end of the decade.
I mean… “not current version of starship” is a pretty lame cop-out as they’re changing versions rapidly LOL.

Falcon did 61 launches last year and is shooting for 100 this. That would put it at higher than the peak launch rate of the R7 family (80-something in one of the years in the 60s, 70s, or 80s).

R7 family did 1965 launches. 1917 if we don’t count the ICBM versions (which were not orbital launch attempts).

At last year’s launch rates that’d take Falcon 9 another 3 decades or so. At this year’s just 2 decades.

Just to launch the 30,000 satellite constellation, Starlink will require 600 launches of Starship assuming 50 satellites per launch.

Starship could get there within a decade, although with the infrastructure they’re building, they could do it in one or two years with daily launches from each of the 4 launch sites (Boca Chica, LC39A, and two more at LC-49). (And they want multiple launches per day per launch site. And more launch sites.)

Stoke could also do it. In some ways, it’s a lot easier for Stoke. Deploying a 2000 satellite megaconstellation one satellite at a time would do it.
Lame cop-out?
Ok, it was. And my apologies for a delay in response.
Starship is a major, major change in launch vehicle configuration, there is nothing that has made orbit (and will hopefully return, repeatedly in one piece) that is comparable. There is therefore limited data on optimal design or configuration for such a vehicle.
Sure there are simulations, but to assume that Starship is 'it' the next R7 is I think premature.
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