Author Topic: Predictions 2015  (Read 53738 times)

Offline Bubbinski

Predictions 2015
« on: 12/20/2014 02:50 pm »
Now that the Predictions 2014 topic is active again, let's see what people think is in store for 2015. 

I'll start:

- SpaceX makes 10 orbital launches this year, including Falcon Heavy debut at Pad 39A.
- Toward the end of 2015 XCOR flies though not to the Karman line.  VG makes a glide flight for a modified SS2 return to flight at year's end.
- SpaceX will fly both abort tests successfully and a firm launch date for first un-crewed and crewed Dragon V2 flights will be announced at year's end
- Boeing will announce its first CST-100 flight test launch date at end of year too
- DreamChaser will lose its protest but stay alive for cargo ISS missions, as well as possible use by space tourism and foreign space agencies
- The ISS year long space mission will generate headlines and data, and will fly to its conclusion though with some anxious moments
- ISS resupply runs smoothly for most part, but one anomaly makes everyone glad that there are multiple cargo providers. 
- One close call on Soyuz makes US Commercial Crew even more important.
- Dawn makes groundbreaking discoveries at Ceres that make the place a target for future missions.
- New Horizons makes similar discoveries at Pluto, NASA talks about a follow-up mission.
- Philae wakes up and talks to Rosetta.  However it will not be able to continue past end of year.
- Mars Curiosity gets higher up Mt. Sharp and returns spectacular vista pictures. Also new data hinting at life.
- Opportunity completes its successful, long mission but not before returning another huge discovery.
- An exoplanet will be discovered that will be "close" and very much potentially earth-like
- An exomoon will finally be confirmed
- NASA budget gets slight plus-up, most projects will be happy
- SLS QM-1 successfully completes its firing
- One or two launch/mission failures worldwide but most launches and missions succeed.
- Roadmap for SLS/Orion/future post-ISS is (largely) fleshed out by end of year though maybe not announced publicly.
- Stratolaunch carrier plane unveiled at year's end
- One crisis (Iran, NK, Taiwan, Ukraine, Kashmir, take your pick) gets red hot and missile/satellite systems get exercised.

- On a personal level, I will make it to the QM-1 test firing and try for the Jason NASA Social/launch at Vandenberg in March.  And there will be an SLS launch - my Dr. Zooch SLS kit will be finished and flown.
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #1 on: 12/20/2014 04:09 pm »
I'm not very good at this but I'm getting better, mostly by curbing my enthusiasm. So...

Commercial Space
* SpaceX achieve between 8 and 10 orbital launches and complete the abort tests for Dragon 2.0;
* Falcon Heavy launches before the end of the year but significantly behind the published schedule due to unforeseen difficulties in the work at LC-39A;
* SpaceX publicise details for Dragon 2.5 - a version adapted for BLEO missions. However, there is no firm commitment made to fly the type;
* Political issues make it very difficult for OSC to proceed with procuring RD-181 for the Antares launcher;
* Virgin Galactic runs into extensive legal and technical problems arising from their LOC incident in 2014; the company flirts with bankruptcy at least once;
* ULA publicise ambitious plans, developed primarily by Boeing and Lockheed, for the Next Generation Launch Vehicle (NGLV), tentatively and unofficially named 'Titan-VI'. Much like Atlas-V Phase-2/3A it has a range of tank size and configurations stretching the entire range from 6t to 104t IMLEO;
* ULA formally down-select to one preferred engine for NGLV at the end of the year after a political dogfight between lobbyists on Capitol Hill that spills into the public domain.

NASA/USG Launch
* EM-2 slips to NET 2023;
* Firm plans for EM-2 and EM-3 (in 2025) are revealed and funding agreed for the exploration hab module, this becoming the first SLS-launched mission module to be funded to get off the drawing board;
* NASA's budget remains flat and the agency's funding crisis remains a political non-event outside space states;
* At least one 'headline' NASA robotic mission is cancelled or ended early due to funding issues;
* ULA have difficulty with at least one NRO mission due to continuing and worsening links with Russia;
* Due to said political issues, Russia formally notifies NASA that they will not carry US astronauts to or from the ISS except in the event of life-threatening emergency after the end of the current contract in FY2016 (or in the event a US astronaut's mission began before the end of that contract period).

Europe
* An ever-worsening deadlock between France and Germany begins to seriously impede the development phase of Ariane-6;
* At least one payload is lost whilst flying on a Soyuz-Fregat with the cause being unequivocally due to poor quality control on the part of the Russian vendor;
* The advanced re-entry vehicle program hits a sandbank and is postponed indefinitely due to political, bureaucratic and engineering issues;
* SNC announce firm plans to launch DreamChaser on a crew-rated Ariane-6 derivative; different parts of ESA confirm or deny the story.

Russia
* ILS suffers the loss of several customers due to unfavourable US/Russian trade barriers;
* Russia continues to suffer a series of upper stage and LV failures linked to poor quality control which are invariable blamed on 'foreign sabotage' or 'improper use of the vehicle outside its normal envelope';
* Angara is repeatedly delayed;
* Russia announces plans to invite the Chinese to send astronauts to the ISS; this seems to be news to the Chinese.

China
* There are one or two crewed flights this year;
* China launches at least one lunar sample return mission;
* Crewed spaceflight plans continue to be ambitious but lacking in funding and detail;
* China denies reports in the press of Chinese intelligence attempting to steal details of BE-3 and -4 engines as well as the Raptor.
* First full-scale CZ-9 ground engineering testbed unveiled.
"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

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DON'T PROPAGANDISE, FLY!!!

Offline Avariel

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #2 on: 12/20/2014 04:38 pm »
I'm going to go for broke! ^_^

In 2015 SETI finally find the needle in a thousand haystacks, although some are still dubious as to the origin of the as yet indecipherable signal. Needless to say there is much media speculation and in one small town a riot breaks out as rumours of alien invasion take hold!

SpaceX succeed in recovering a first stage, but an anomaly during one of the abort tests set things back. However the year ends with a successful launch of Falcon Heavy so its not so bad.

Boeing announce that they are ahead of schedule with development of the CST-100 and hope to bring the first human launch forward by a year. This is mostly thanks to a huge additional investment in the project by Boeing in an attempt to put them ahead of SpaceX in the commercial launch market.

The year ends badly for fans of planetary science as contact with the Curiosity rover is lost for reasons unknown, although the sting of this is lessened by the huge success of the New Horizons mission to Pluto.

After the successful New Horizons mission and a huge public campaign Pluto is reinstated as a planet by the IAU, who claim that they never really said it was not a planet in the first place and were just misunderstood.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #3 on: 12/20/2014 06:00 pm »
Let's see.

SpaceX
- SpaceX completes 9 missions.
- Falcon Heavy doesn't fly in 2015.
- LC-39A goes unused throughout 2015 but will be completed and see a Falcon Heavy on the pad late in the year.
- A successful F9 landing on their barge in January for CRS-5.
- First flyback of a F9 to CCAFS LC-13.
- No first-stage reuse in 2015.
- Pad-abort test sometime mid-year, launch-abort test late 2015.

OSC & Virgin Galactic:
- Cygnus RTF on Atlas V in late-2015.
- MARS LP-0 repaired after Antares explosion earlier this year.
- Antares w/ RD-181 static test firing slipping into 2016.
- Reason for failure of VSS Enterprise narrowed down, no flights in 2015.

NASA
- Status quo right now, not expecting much to change except for EM-1 and 2 to slowly slip further into the future.
- A further push for Europa Clipper on SLS in the 2020s.
- The Year of the Dwarfs: New Horizons flyby of Dwarf Planet Pluto, Dawn enters orbit around Dwarf Planet Ceres. They'll be the headlines for NASA's Planetary Science missions this year.
- Curiosity continues on roving, Opportunity finally shuts down.

Misc.
- Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens will be awesome.
KSC Engineer, astronomer, rocket photographer.

Offline Kryten

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #4 on: 12/21/2014 05:25 pm »
Commercial
* Falcon Heavy doesn't fly before the end of the year
* SpaceX completes eight missions or less
* Lynx and SS2 both see powered flight before the end of the year, but not anywhere close to the Kármán line.
* At least one reasonably famous newspace company goes bankrupt
* SpaceX achieves first stage landing on a barge, but not on the first attempt
* Sealaunch announces no contracts and slides further towards insolvency
* Cyclone from Alcantara is delayed by at least six months

European
* Arianespace has no launch failures
* At least one contract for Soyuz with fregat is cancelled
* Contact is not remade with Philae

US government
* ULA has at least one failure or partial failure
* ULA announces at least one commercial contract
* LEONIDAS/SPARK successfully completes it's maiden launch
* Cygnus-on-Atlas delayed to early 2016

Russia
* At least one spectacular failure of a government Proton launch, similar to 2013 failure
* ILS Proton continues to have much better record than government Proton
* [If delayed into 2015] Angara-5 test flight is successful.
* Replacement of Proton by Angara delayed
* Soyuz 2.1v flies with RD-193
* Russia (either ILS or government) suffers the first launch failure of 2015

China
* One of either the CZ-7 or CZ-6 maiden flights fail
* CZ-11 is delayed to 2016
* Public information emerges on the CZ-8 or -10 projects

International
* RLV-TD does not fly
* Indian crewed program see boosted budget
* Iran and North Korea both make one orbital flight
* Iran flies Safir derivatives only, nothing heard of Simorgh
* The proposed UAE space program sinks without a trace
* Akatsuki fails to enter orbit around Venus (again)
* ARCA flies no rockets this year

Misc
*Total orbital launch attempts for the year are between 80 and 95
* At least two big-budget hard-ish Scifi films are announced by major studios in the wake of Interstellar
* Stars Wars VII receives positive reviews, but is widely considered not to match the original trilogy
* Tactical ballistic missiles see confirmed operational use somewhere in the world
* No GLXP team reaches the lunar surface
« Last Edit: 12/21/2014 05:31 pm by Kryten »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #5 on: 12/21/2014 07:52 pm »
Blue fly their BE3 powered suborbital LV.

Rocketlab's first launch of Electron.

Lynx starts flying ( test flights)

Firefly tests their aerospike engine.


Offline NovaSilisko

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #6 on: 12/22/2014 01:19 am »
A list for now of some random ones... might edit later with a few more

- New Horizons finds a ring system and many more small moons at Pluto, public starts whining about it not being a planet again

- SpaceX reflies a stage (not going to bet on the outcome of that... we'll wait and see)

- Dawn finds evidence of a water (or slush) ocean beneath the surface of Ceres

- Philae wakes up once again, sooner than expected

- The OSIRIS team finally releases more of their damn images

- Curiosity's mission plan requires significant alteration due to increasing wheel damage

- None of the GLXP competitors land on the moon (come on guys, prove me wrong)

- A Soyuz launch abort occurs, the first since 1983

- Yutu/Chang'e 3 at last succumb to the elements (assuming they haven't already, I'm a bit unclear on it)

- Another widely-visible Chelyabinsk-class event occurs

- Russia's space industry goes into emergency mode as the country's economic crisis persists, many future plans are curtailed

- Both Dragon2 abort tests occur

- Dragonfly makes its first hop

- SpaceX remains annoyingly quiet about MCT/BFR

- Tiangong 1 deorbited (or decays, doubt that though)


And some freebies:

- JWST continues to balloon in cost

- SLS continues to slip

- Mars One continues to scale back their ambitions
« Last Edit: 12/22/2014 07:21 am by NovaSilisko »

Offline kfsorensen

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #7 on: 12/22/2014 01:51 am »
A century from now, the most significant space events of 2015 will be the first looks at Ceres and Pluto.  Nothing else will even come close to those achievements.

Offline breadfan

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #8 on: 12/22/2014 02:40 am »
A century from now, the most significant space events of 2015 will be the first looks at Ceres and Pluto.  Nothing else will even come close to those achievements.

I agree - New Horizons should be seen as one of the great exploration events of our time.

I'm going to be optimistic.
-12 SpaceX orbital flights, but no FH, in addition to recovering a first stage and re-flying it.
-Lynx gets airborne in some form, be it a towed test flight or something similar.
-Blue Origin shows their suborbital LV and flies it.
-Virgin Galactic burns cash for another year with no spaceflight achievements to show for it (but plenty of marketing ones).

Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #9 on: 12/22/2014 02:56 am »
Now that the Predictions 2014 topic is active again, let's see what people think is in store for 2015. 

I'll start:
And I'll comment the few where I happen to disagree.

Curiosity is not equipped to detect any signs of life.

People keep saying this, and it's completely wrong.  Curosity could photograph features such as stromatolites or could determine isotopic signatures that are good indicators of life.  Not proof, but very good.

Quote
It will however learn about the ancient geology of Mars at Mount Sharp. Also, it will not climb up the mountain to any viewpoint, it will study layered cliff walls from the floor of a ravine.

It's not really at the food even now.  I doubt whether it will even get to the ravines and knolls at the true foot by the end of the year.

Quote
- One or two launch/mission failures worldwide but most launches and missions succeed.
Not more? The Proton has a busy launch schedule and it fails once a year, and Angara should have some early problems. India too is trying a new rocket. And the current Chinese launchers seem a bit antiquated, they or their replacement test launches will have some bad luck. I bet four failures for the top-ten big launchers in the world.

Chinese rockets are extremely reliable and very mature.  I think the one or two failures is about right, with four world wide at the outside.

Apologies in advance for any lack of civility - it's unintended

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #10 on: 12/22/2014 03:12 am »
My prediction is that as the presidential candidates emerge not one will mention NASA in the coming year.

Offline TakeOff

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #11 on: 12/22/2014 11:38 am »
I will offer my prediction of what will NOT happen in 2015, although these events are popularly predicted.

No big news about exolife will come from MSL Curiosity. It is not equipped for that purpose. It will however learn about the ancient geology of Mars at Mount Sharp. Also, it will not climb up the mountain to any viewpoint, it will study layered cliff walls from the floor of a ravine.

No Earth like exoplanetary atmosphere will be found in 2015, nor any exomoon. But just wait a few more years and the telescopes will be up and running to do that!

I think that at least 4 big launchers (say, of the ten largest launchers around) will fail in 2015. The Proton has a busy launch schedule and it has in recent decades failed about once a year on average. Angara should have some early problems. India too is trying their new GSLV mk.III. And the current Chinese launchers seem a bit antiquated, they or their replacement test launches will have some bad luck. I bet four failures for the top-ten big launchers in the world. It will just temporarily pick up because of the current transition from old to new.

Missile wars haven't happened since the scud Gulf war a quarter of a century ago. And before that not since the V2 world war two. I am confident that the risk for war between missile capable governments is quite low today. Not counting the short range primitive rocket artillery of some Palestinian rebels as space related missiles.

Offline jebbo

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #12 on: 12/22/2014 12:38 pm »
Just a few predictions from me:

General
- More than 90 space launches, continuing the upward trend since ~2004/5

Commercial Spaceflight
- Virgin Galactic resume testing late in the year but also announce new engine programme
- SpaceX achieve 9+ flights
- SNC announces closer collaboration with foreign agency (probably DLR or ESA) for Dream Chaser

European
- ESA (et al) mop up a bunch of Ukrainian and Russian aerospace companies
- Successful launch of IXV
- No Ariane launch failures

Space Science
- 20+ exoplanets found by Kepler K2, some by citizen science
- Contra other predictions above, NO earth-like exoplanets found and NO exomoons (IMO need better instruments e.g. Plato)
- 5+ new moons of Pluto found by New Horizons
- Philae wakes up before the end of February

--- Tony

Offline Moe Grills

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #13 on: 12/22/2014 04:57 pm »
A century from now, the most significant space events of 2015 will be the first looks at Ceres and Pluto.  Nothing else will even come close to those achievements.

Unless something crawls into view of Curiosity's imaging systems.  ;D  lol

But seriously, you are right.
And I make my prediction regarding New Horizons discoveries in 2015.
The NH will image geysers on Pluto.
Theoretically, there should be some tidal flexing on that orb, feeble as it is.
Every 3.4 days that orb lines up with Charon and the Sun, and by repetition of that event over long ages there is heat (feeble warmth) generated in the crust. Not as much heat energy as at Enceladus, but it doesn't take many Joules/calories to sublimate buried nitrogen ice.

You heard it here first.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2014 04:58 pm by Moe Grills »

Offline K-P

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #14 on: 12/22/2014 05:19 pm »
A century from now, the most significant space events of 2015 will be the first looks at Ceres and Pluto.  Nothing else will even come close to those achievements.

I have that itch especially about Ceres.

After 2015 nobody remembers Mars (or maybe even Europa).
We go Ceres big time!
:)

..and finally all the fuzz about figuring out rational missions and targets for SLS / Orion had disappeared forever, along with the budget fears.

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #15 on: 12/22/2014 05:56 pm »
8 Falcon 9 launches if all goes well (*if!)

Falcon Heavy moves to early 2016 (first launch fails)

Lynx doesn't fly

Virgin Galactic winds up by years end, as it investors wish to cut their losses.

ULA and Ariane Space have another perfect year launch wise.


Russia has a high profile failure

Falcon landing attempt on Barge fails.

SpaceX quitely planning a replacement for Falcon Heavy to be fielded for the period of 2017-2020 using larger Methane engines and 5-6 meter core. This is a bridge to BFR. Might be made public by end of 2015.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #16 on: 12/22/2014 06:15 pm »
A century from now, the most significant space events of 2015 will be the first looks at Ceres and Pluto.  Nothing else will even come close to those achievements.

Unless something crawls into view of Curiosity's imaging systems.  ;D  lol

But seriously, you are right.
And I make my prediction regarding New Horizons discoveries in 2015.
The NH will image geysers on Pluto.
Theoretically, there should be some tidal flexing on that orb, feeble as it is.
Every 3.4 days that orb lines up with Charon and the Sun, and by repetition of that event over long ages there is heat (feeble warmth) generated in the crust. Not as much heat energy as at Enceladus, but it doesn't take many Joules/calories to sublimate buried nitrogen ice.

You heard it here first.

You do realize that Pluto and Charon orbits around a common barycenter?

Offline philw1776

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #17 on: 12/22/2014 08:19 pm »
PLUTO flyby successful with additional moonlets discovered
CERES orbiter successful
Philea lander found from orbit but comms remain silent
Curiosity's wheel problems continue to limit distance covered, not the science "right here" opportunity cover story
JWST cost over runs continue

SpaceX lands 1st stage successfully on a barge
No flight re-use of a 1st stage in 2015
Falcon Heavy delayed out of 2015
Dragon V2 pad tower escape test successful.  Nobody in London hurt!

SLS schedule slips...again
Nobody claims Google Lunar Prize especially because no landings on the moon in 2015
Virgin Galactic finally goes quiet pending bankruptcy
No Blue Origin flights

Kepler K2 mission continues successes finding close in exoplanets
No true Earth II yet found (size, illumination & atmosphere)
No exo-moon confirmation

SETI continues to draw a blank (this is an annual recurring prediction)
FULL SEND!!!!

Offline Prober

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #18 on: 12/23/2014 07:30 pm »
Flavor Note:  looked today and see a flavor to my postings.  It's influenced by many recent, enjoyable hours of watching Babylon 5.   Gives it a B5 flair 8)


2015 the year of chaos, and pressure fully enter the space community

Commercial Crew becomes an endless rotation of lawsuits for competing interests more closely resembling a roulette wheel looking for the winner.

2015 It's ULA's turn to file new lawsuits

Elon Musk receives a personal defamation lawsuit

Administrator Bolden is brought before Congress   50/50 he will continue out 2015   

ISS becomes reevaluated as competing terrestrial interests move into low earth orbit

China advances further into low earth orbit

N. Korea launch hostilities heighten;  China finds itself under stealth, intervening and possibly rising to overt actions to protect its own interests.

VG try's to rebuild faces new obstacles

Blue O, comes further out of the shadows with many surprises to shake up the launch market

Sea Launch kicks the bucket again

Early US politics bring the nations attention to NASA.

After reviewing old data several surprising planetary discoveries are made.

ULA:  Due to market pressure, and the need to make major cost reductions.  ULA will look for a breakup.  The announcement might happen late 2015 after much planning.   The firm will transfer assets into a commercial company and governmental unit.  The focus will be to capture new launches, increase launch rates and reduce launch cost.

AR: Moves from having a cold, to becoming a sick firm.   Will find itself asking for a governmental bailout, disguised as new business or a new R&D program.
 
SpaceX: Major cash flow problems

Edit: add N. Korea, ULA, AR, SpaceX;  flavor note added
« Last Edit: 12/28/2014 03:03 am by Prober »
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant..." --Isoroku Yamamoto

Offline jgoldader

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #19 on: 12/23/2014 08:36 pm »
(Are we allowed to add to these before 1 Jan?)

SpaceX has a run of bad luck, losing a bird.  Falcon Heavy bumps to the right.  No abort tests.  No barge landing.  Four successful flights, one loss.

ULA giggles until they lose a bird as well.

Russians lose a Proton, unspecified shoddy workmanship, back flying inside of 4 months.

SLS slips abound.  No money is approved for ARM robotic part; ARM on life support by end of year, and slipping way past mid-2020's.

Virgin Galactic closes up shop after blistering SS2 loss report.

Stratolaunch folds.

Boeing formally eats Blue Origin; Bezos plows the money back into Amazon.

DreamChaser formally shut down after SNC loses protest.

Dawn and New Horizons only real bright spots for the year for interplanetary spacecraft.  Daring recovery of New Horizons rescues Pluto flyby  after last-minute safe mode.  Dawn images comet-like activity on Ceres, but not geysers.  Discovery of surface ice on Ceres causes major rethink of all NASA's HSF plans.

JWST slippage likely, but still progressing to launch.

A wish, a dream: Voyager 2 enters interstellar space.
« Last Edit: 12/25/2014 10:06 pm by jgoldader »
Recovering astronomer

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