Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1v - Kosmos 2525 (EMKA) - Plesetsk - March 29, 2018 (17:38 UTC)  (Read 80149 times)

Offline Phillip Clark

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2 options:
- it is not the satellite ("Zvesda")
- engine does not work.

A non-functioning engine might explain the very small manoeuvre that I mentioned a few messages ago.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Star One

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2 options:
- it is not the satellite ("Zvesda")
- engine does not work.

A non-functioning engine might explain the very small manoeuvre that I mentioned a few messages ago.

Would seem the most logical answer to me.

Online Stan Black

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2 options:
- it is not the satellite ("Zvesda")
- engine does not work.

A non-functioning engine might explain the very small manoeuvre that I mentioned a few messages ago.

Would seem the most logical answer to me.

Or a decoy?

Online Alter Sachse

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Or a decoy?

That would be an option !
The satellite (stealth) circles higher and we only see a dead fragment.

2018 Sep 22:96.61° 90.15min 280 284 km
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

Offline Phillip Clark

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Or a decoy?
That would be an option !
The satellite (stealth) circles higher and we only see a dead fragment.
2018 Sep 22:96.61° 90.15min 280 284 km

Space-Track has just started to issue TLEs in the 80,000 catalogue number series once more, these being objects which are being confidently tracked but which have not been assigned to a specific launch.   They are normally pieces of debris rather than rocket bodies or payloads.   I have done a scan of the data which have been issued over the last two days to see if there is something which could be the "real Cosmos 2525" but there is nothing obvious.   On the other hand, something new with an inclination of ~96.6-97.6 degrees (my search criterion) would surely have been identified with the Cosmos 2525 launch and catalogued accordingly.

We shall see ..........
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Online Alter Sachse

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Oct 20 96.60° 89.88min 266 271 km
Oct 22 96.60° 89.95min 268 276 km

we have to wait, if that's true...
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

Offline Phillip Clark

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Looks to be another small manoeuvre from Cosmos 2525:

Oct 22.738    96.598 deg      89.951 min     268-276 km     73
Oct 23.040    96.597            89.963            270-275         101

This would indicate that object A from the launch is indeed the satellite, rather thasn being some debris with the satellite in a different "stealth" orbit.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Phillip Clark

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The orbital manoeuvre of Cosmos 2525 which I mentioned yesterday was more extensive (but still small) that I reported:

Oct 22.161    96.603 deg      89.868 min     265-271 km    125 deg (pre-manoeuvre)
Oct 22.226    96.601            89.899            267-272         100       (raise perigee)
Oct 22.738    96.598            89.951            268-276           73       (raise apogee)
Oct 23.040    96.597            89.963            270-275         101       (raise perigee again)

No sign of further manoeuvres in the TLEs downloaded this morning.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Phillip Clark

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There appears to have been another small manoeuvre:

Oct 24.668    96.597 deg      89.938 min     270-273 km     96 deg
Oct 25.286    96.604            89.963            269-276          99
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Online Alter Sachse

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Yesterday 3 (?) more manoeuvres !
« Last Edit: 10/27/2018 06:04 am by Alter Sachse »
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

Offline Phillip Clark

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Just processed the latest TLEs ........

Oct 25.286    96.604 deg      89.963 min     269-276 km     99 deg   (from yesterday's post))
Oct 26.287    96.599            90.073            274-282          87
Oct 26.609    96.592            90.107            276-283        121
Oct 26.859    96.587            90.130            278-284          97
Oct 27.168    96.591            90.165            279-286          80
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Still slowly increasing altitude.   Cosmos 2525 is now above Sun-synchronous altitude.

Oct 27.225    96.592 deg      90.168 minutes     280-286 km     73 deg

No orbital data have been issued since the TLE for the above.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Online Alter Sachse

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It is puzzling. Why was the satellite passive for so long ?
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

Offline Phillip Clark

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It is puzzling. Why was the satellite passive for so long ?

Maybe allowing the satellite's orbit to decay to below SSO: and now we will see periodic manoeuvres to boost it back above the SSO altitude?
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Star One

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It is puzzling. Why was the satellite passive for so long ?

Maybe allowing the satellite's orbit to decay to below SSO: and now we will see periodic manoeuvres to boost it back above the SSO altitude?

What can we ascertain about its mission I wonder from the desire to keep placing it back in that orbit. If it was going back into SSO it would be easier to do but it isn’t.
« Last Edit: 10/28/2018 08:50 pm by Star One »

Offline Phillip Clark

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One more manoeuvre to add:

Oct 28.171    96.595 deg      90.197 min     281-287 km     65 deg

Note that as well as the orbital period/altitude being adjusted, the orbital inclination has been shifted as well during the recent manoeuvres.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Online Alter Sachse

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And now down again...
Oct 28 90,20 min
Oct 30 90,12 min
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

Offline Phillip Clark

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Looking at the orbital periods, there look to have been manoeuvres up and down in the last couple of days.

Oct 30.114    96.591 deg      90.184 minutes     280-287 km     71 deg
Oct 30.232    96.596            90.144                  279-284          78
Oct 30.494    96.596            90.123                  278-283          27
Oct 30.623    96.596            90.130                  278-283          24
Oct 30.872    96.589            90.133                  279-283          51
Oct 31.177    96.591            90.131                  280-282          83

Assuming an ideal circular orbit, I wonder if we might see the satellite decaying to and stabilising in a 16 circuits repeating Sun-synchronous orbit - 96.574 deg, 89.937 min, 271 km: note how the inclination has evolved over the last week.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Phillip Clark

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A further small orbital manoeuvre by Cosmos 2525 has taken place.

Nov 20.704    96.589 deg      89.914 minutes     269-271 km    141 deg
Nov 21.259    96.585            89.952                  270-274           91

Also, the Blok I rocket stage decayed from orbit on November 4.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Phillip Clark

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It's manoeuvre time again.

Dec 12.498    96.590 deg   89.767 minutes   261-265 km    53 deg
Dec 13.109    96.589         89.800                261-268         67
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

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