Quote from: pochimax on 10/31/2023 09:07 pmQuoteVAB changes: $1B - $2B?why so much? <snip>Just a guess. Removing the old service platforms and replaced them with new service platforms in the VAB then hooking up everything. Plus operating and maintaining the new service platforms.
QuoteVAB changes: $1B - $2B?why so much? <snip>
VAB changes: $1B - $2B?
So SpaceX could do something with HB #1 or #2, but we're talking about a complete build-out of one of these high bays, which would indeed be a couple of $B, once all the VAB contractors had gotten their beaks wet.
QuoteSo SpaceX could do something with HB #1 or #2, but we're talking about a complete build-out of one of these high bays, which would indeed be a couple of $B, once all the VAB contractors had gotten their beaks wet.How is it possible that SpX makes a whole new development of a never-before-seen lunar lander for only 3 billion and now it turns out that for two scaffolds and four platforms SpX is not capable of doing it for less than 2 billion?I don't find any logic.
*snip*My most recent understanding is that High Bay #3 is the main SLS/Orion integration area. NorGrumm was going to use HB #2 for Omega, but it's gone. SLS uses HB #4 for pre-integration activities--I don't understand what these are.*snip*
The folks here, especially including me, are just guessing, but the guesses have some basis. Among other things, a NASA contract for a straight SLS replacement will likely be quite different from the original HLS contract. For another I think we are assuming that the FrankenStarship, and especially its GSE, would be unique to Orion, so the Orion launches would need to cover the costs. By contrast, the bulk of the HLS development directly leverages the work SpaceX already intended to do fr generic Starship. If you wish to compare bid prices, look at the original $6 B bid for the first BO HLS, or the $9 B bid for the Dynetics HLS, or even the $3.4 B bid for the BO Appendix P HLS was was actually awarded. All of these were for unique special-purpose hardware with very low use rates. By contrast, SpaceX was apparently willing to bid just enough to cover the incremental costs (and presmably a nice profit) while still funding the base Starship using its own money.The other problem is that Frankenstarship must be co-developed with major non-SpaceX components, especially GSE. SpaceX may very well be able to develop the stubby SS for $200 M (or whatever). The rest of the $2B is for mostly non-SpaceX work at KSC.
<snip>Furthermore, with the savings we have by avoiding SLS, the Orion can be launched twice a year to the Gateway or even more frequently. Europe is ready to increase its production rate of ESMs and even modify them so that they have more delta-v and test other types of missions (asteroids).
Quote from: pochimax on 11/03/2023 06:18 pm<snip>Furthermore, with the savings we have by avoiding SLS, the Orion can be launched twice a year to the Gateway or even more frequently. Europe is ready to increase its production rate of ESMs and even modify them so that they have more delta-v and test other types of missions (asteroids).Afraid upgrading the European service module might not be needed. Since a refueled stubby Starship variant could act as the canceled Altair lander for Earth departure and trans injected to destination orbit roles.Frankly even the Orion might be phased out early and be replace by a simpler Earth reentry vehicle (EaRV) with a stubby Starship variant as orbital transfer vehicle, cargo transport and habitat. The Orion with 2 weeks of life support is simply too expensive, when you can get several Starship/EaRV sets for the cost of one Orion and its sprawling support infrastructure footprint.Sadly the SLS and Orion are linked together. They only exists to justified each other. Since the only payload that needs the SLS is the Orion, which currently have no other launcher. If one gets axed, the other will also get axed.
From the moment of that first flight, let's say in 2025, NASA will have to consider the possibility of launching the Orion using the Starship rocket and put that option out to tender.
Frankly, I don't see much incentive for SpaceX to participate in this.
NASA may have to consider replacing SLS/Orion altogether.
QuoteFrankly, I don't see much incentive for SpaceX to participate in this. NASA would be asking for it... I don't understand why it seems like little incentive. Can anyone really believe that SpX is going to refuse a NASA request? QuoteNASA may have to consider replacing SLS/Orion altogether. I do not see it. There is a very important temporal problem. There will be a potential competitor to the SLS several years BEFORE there will be a potential competitor to the Orion spacecraft. NASA cannot wait for the Orion competitor to exist before it can look for commercial replacements for the SLS. Perhaps in the not near future it will be able to look for a replacement for the Orion, but at first it will have no choice but to try to launch the Orion on a Starship rocket.
QuoteFrankly, I don't see much incentive for SpaceX to participate in this. NASA would be asking for it... I don't understand why it seems like little incentive. Can anyone really believe that SpX is going to refuse a NASA request?
But it'd be much, much cleaner for NASA simply to issue a BAA for a second source for the Earth-NRHO-Earth segment and throw it open to public competition.
Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 11/04/2023 10:38 pmBut it'd be much, much cleaner for NASA simply to issue a BAA for a second source for the Earth-NRHO-Earth segment and throw it open to public competition.This. So much this.I get that folks like to LEGO-engineer their pet solutions using the systems and subsystems laying around and then imagine how easy it would be to just sole-source their genius. But folks should also remember that’s what Mike Griffin and Scott Horowitz did, and it got us Ares I. And it’s what NASA Senate detailees Tom Cremins and Jeff Bingham did, and it got us SLS.Let industry do its job. Let competition do its work. The process is actually as important, if not more so, than the specific solutions.
Speaking at the American Astronautical Society’s von Braun Space Exploration Symposium Oct. 27, former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin discussed the “regrettable square-wave flip from it’s all government all the time in space to if it isn’t commercial, why are we bothering to do it?”Griffin did not specifically mention LTV or other programs that have taken the services approach, but he argued that the shift to commercial approaches deprived government agencies of doing “a certain amount of work themselves,” in the process building up experience they can then apply to other programs.He also said companies advocating for commercial approaches are doing so because they want government money without the rules and regulations involved in traditional government contracting approaches. “Until we can return to the proper definition of commercial we’re going to be kidding ourselves.”
Speaking of Mike Griffin, here is what he had to say about these public-private partnerships:
Quote from: Space NewsSpeaking at the American Astronautical Society’s von Braun Space Exploration Symposium Oct. 27, former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin discussed the “regrettable square-wave flip from it’s all government all the time in space to if it isn’t commercial, why are we bothering to do it?”
Speaking at the American Astronautical Society’s von Braun Space Exploration Symposium Oct. 27, former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin discussed the “regrettable square-wave flip from it’s all government all the time in space to if it isn’t commercial, why are we bothering to do it?”
QuoteGriffin did not specifically mention LTV or other programs that have taken the services approach, but he argued that the shift to commercial approaches deprived government agencies of doing “a certain amount of work themselves,” in the process building up experience they can then apply to other programs.
Griffin did not specifically mention LTV or other programs that have taken the services approach, but he argued that the shift to commercial approaches deprived government agencies of doing “a certain amount of work themselves,” in the process building up experience they can then apply to other programs.
QuoteHe also said companies advocating for commercial approaches are doing so because they want government money without the rules and regulations involved in traditional government contracting approaches. “Until we can return to the proper definition of commercial we’re going to be kidding ourselves.”
He also said companies advocating for commercial approaches are doing so because they want government money without the rules and regulations involved in traditional government contracting approaches. “Until we can return to the proper definition of commercial we’re going to be kidding ourselves.”
In a conference call with analysts on Wednesday, Boeing's chief executive, David Calhoun, and chief financial officer, Brian West, expressed disappointment in these results from the defense and space division. They reiterated their goal of returning the company's defense and space businesses to profitability by the 2025 to 2026 period.Notably, the pair pinned the blame for performance by its defense and space division, referred to internally as BDS, on fixed-price contracts. As the BDS division seeks a return to profitability, West said Boeing will not be using fixed-price contracts anymore."Perhaps most importantly, we instituted much tighter underwriting standards," he said. "As you know, part of the challenge we're dealing with are legacy contracts that we need to get out from under. Rest assured, we haven't signed any fixed-price development contracts, nor intend to.
Speaking of Mike Griffin, here is what he had to say about these public-private partnerships:Quote from: Space NewsSpeaking at the American Astronautical Society’s von Braun Space Exploration Symposium Oct. 27, former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin discussed the “regrettable square-wave flip from it’s all government all the time in space to if it isn’t commercial, why are we bothering to do it?”Griffin did not specifically mention LTV or other programs that have taken the services approach, but he argued that the shift to commercial approaches deprived government agencies of doing “a certain amount of work themselves,” in the process building up experience they can then apply to other programs.He also said companies advocating for commercial approaches are doing so because they want government money without the rules and regulations involved in traditional government contracting approaches. “Until we can return to the proper definition of commercial we’re going to be kidding ourselves.”https://spacenews.com/nasa-delays-artemis-lunar-rover-award-by-four-months/
Quote from: yg1968 on 11/05/2023 04:24 pmSpeaking of Mike Griffin, here is what he had to say about these public-private partnerships:Quote from: Space NewsSpeaking at the American Astronautical Society’s von Braun Space Exploration Symposium Oct. 27, former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin discussed the “regrettable square-wave flip from it’s all government all the time in space to if it isn’t commercial, why are we bothering to do it?”Griffin did not specifically mention LTV or other programs that have taken the services approach, but he argued that the shift to commercial approaches deprived government agencies of doing “a certain amount of work themselves,” in the process building up experience they can then apply to other programs.He also said companies advocating for commercial approaches are doing so because they want government money without the rules and regulations involved in traditional government contracting approaches. “Until we can return to the proper definition of commercial we’re going to be kidding ourselves.”https://spacenews.com/nasa-delays-artemis-lunar-rover-award-by-four-months/Mike Griffin would be well advised to STFU on this subject. Failed engineer and worst NASA administrator ever "gifting" the world with the worst launcher ever (Ares I) shouldn't be giving highly uninformed (and that's putting it mildly) "advice" on how today's NASA should run things.The spaceflight community would IMO be a much better place if people stopped giving attention to Griffin.
Quote from: yg1968 on 11/05/2023 04:24 pmSpeaking of Mike Griffin, here is what he had to say about these public-private partnerships:I didn’t know that anyone still paid attention to what that corrupt whiny hack has to say, so I didn’t quote him.