Landing By 2024?

[deltaV]

If NASA really feels forced to do a non-landing Arty3, the least-ludicrous mission would be to have Orion dock to the uncrewed Starship demo HLS in NRHO. No Gateway needed. Presumably uncrewed HLS demo is available a year before the actual Starship HLS, and is in a schedule race with Gateway.

If uncrewed HLS Starship is available a year before crewed HLS Starship the long pole for crewed HLS will probably be NASA paperwork. Much of that paperwork is probably required before a docking with crewed Orion could be done - if a Starship malfunctions while docked with Orion that could easily kill the crew. So I don't think having Orion dock with an uncrewed Starship would save much time compared to a full lunar landing.

[DanClemmensen]

If NASA really feels forced to do a non-landing Arty3, the least-ludicrous mission would be to have Orion dock to the uncrewed Starship demo HLS in NRHO. No Gateway needed. Presumably uncrewed HLS demo is available a year before the actual Starship HLS, and is in a schedule race with Gateway.

If uncrewed HLS Starship is available a year before crewed HLS Starship the long pole for crewed HLS will probably be NASA paperwork. Much of that paperwork is probably required before a docking with crewed Orion could be done - if a Starship malfunctions while docked with Orion that could easily kill the crew. So I don't think having Orion dock with an uncrewed Starship would save much time compared to a full lunar landing.

How does docking with the uncrewed demo HLS differ from docking with Gateway? If the paperwork differs, it's a triumph of process over reality.
If NASA really cared, Artemis III would not be the very first time Orion files with a functional docking port. Orion would perform an uncrewed docking in LEO to demonstrate the hardware. But SLS/Orion missions are so expensive that NASA skipped this obvious step.

[TheRadicalModerate]

Crazy like an expendable logistic & service Starship with 4 midship radial IDSS ports plus a nose IDSS port.

If SpaceX can do that, then the LSS is no longer on the critical path, and the question is moot.

[TheRadicalModerate]

If NASA really feels forced to do a non-landing Arty3, the least-ludicrous mission would be to have Orion dock to the uncrewed Starship demo HLS in NRHO. No Gateway needed. Presumably uncrewed HLS demo is available a year before the actual Starship HLS, and is in a schedule race with Gateway.

Uncrewed demo SS HLS could also be used as a demo for an eventual SS station to replace Gateway, or to replace some or most of its modules. Bigger, cheaper, available sooner.

If you're worried about Starship's schedule, then building an alternate schedule with Starship on or near the critical path doesn't sound like a good idea.

Why do you think there's a one-year gap between the uncrewed demo and the crewed landing?  If the demo is successful, SpaceX can turn things around for the Real Thing in a few months.

There's obviously the question of how quickly NASA is willing to turn a successful demo into a crew certification, but that's kinda their problem, isn't it?

[tbellman]

How does docking with the uncrewed demo HLS differ from docking with Gateway?

For one thing, the HLS uncrewed demo ship is almost certainly going to lack an actual cabin and docking port.  Its purpose is after all just to demonstrate landing, and possibly also take-off, not to be a fully functional crew vehicle, and said landing will have a high risk of ending in a crash, so a cabin would just be a waste of money and effort.

[TheRadicalModerate]

How does docking with the uncrewed demo HLS differ from docking with Gateway?

For one thing, the HLS uncrewed demo ship is almost certainly going to lack an actual cabin and docking port.  Its purpose is after all just to demonstrate landing, and possibly also take-off, not to be a fully functional crew vehicle, and said landing will have a high risk of ending in a crash, so a cabin would just be a waste of money and effort.

I'd expect the cabin to be Artemis I-like:  No ECLSS, but close enough to get ergonomic and stress data.  The other thing that's going to be hugely important is to demonstrate the elevator.  There's no CLIN for it, but I'd be surprised if NASA didn't point out that it would be much easier to crew-certify with a live test.  And there's no limit to what NASA or SpaceX might want to deploy if it were cheap enough.