AJ-1E6 (Now AR-1) Progress Known?

[notsorandom]

ULA to help fund the AR-1 for a couple years.

Plus there is government's $200m funding for a domestic engine,  Aerojet may yet build this engine.

http://m.decaturdaily.com/news/ula-s-ceo-talks-challenges-engine-plant-plans-for-decatur/article_8ba49046-af4a-11e4-97ef-ff58591d43fc.html?mode=jqm

I don't understand how AR-1 can be a "backup" for BE-4, since the two engines use completely different fuels.  ULA would have to also design a "backup" rocket - unless it intends AR-1 to be a straight up RD-180 replacement, in which case AR-1 is still not a "backup" because it would mean keeping the current Atlas 5/Delta 4 lineup.

 - Ed Kyle

Assuming the BE-4 falls through would it make sense for ULA to close down the Delta line, continue on with the Atlas V (with AR-1s) and transition to something like the Atlas Phase 2? Perhaps even drop the Delta quickly and build the Atlas Heavy as an interim until Phase 2 is brought online?

[Space Ghost 1962]

Reading this critically there is no news as to AR-1, so these posts don't belong here.

All that is remotely "new" is that AR constitutes a theoretical alternative, which has always been true, and would be true no matter until AR would cease to exist.

This is a distraction to this thread. Leave this thread here, because "advanced boosters" are the only thing that might use such novel engines from AR. Anything that would assist ULA, however labelled, is likely to be a very different program as well.

Such might be in the form of a "spin out" or hedge fund deal, may or may not have any Russian heritage/licensing.

E.g. don't assume too much is fixed here either. Also, if SLS hits a speed bump of some kind, advanced boosters can be brought back to the table (from the dead?).

[Ben the Space Brit]

A general unwillingness on the part of both Aerojet and PWR to invest in engine development without a solid customer to foot the bill may yet cost them dearly. With Blue Origin seeming to possibly about to take away ULA's NGLV business and Delta-IV and Atlas-V going away, AJR may find themselves without any business at all in as little as a decade beyond SLS at a rate of, what, eight engines a year spread across two models?

[notsorandom]

A general unwillingness on the part of both Aerojet and PWR to invest in engine development without a solid customer to foot the bill may yet cost them dearly. With Blue Origin seeming to possibly about to take away ULA's NGLV business and Delta-IV and Atlas-V going away, AJR may find themselves without any business at all in as little as a decade beyond SLS at a rate of, what, eight engines a year spread across two models?

To be fair no company has developed an engine without a rocket or customer footing the bill. SpaceX and Blue both had a rocket meant to go with their engines. A new engine is going to cost a huge amount of money to design and build. I don't think it is logical to expect Aerojet or PWR to have sunk hundreds of millions of dollars into developing an engine with only the hope that someone someday might buy it. That would be an awfully large amount of money to gamble.

Also these engine projects take years. Not even one year ago the RD-180 looked safe. It would be difficult to produce an engine which could compete with it. The RD-180's development cost were paid long ago and its production labor is cheaper. There wasn't a good reason to replace it. Blue just happened to be developing an engine with close enough to what ULA was looking for when they needed to stat looking for a replacement. However Blue was doing that for their own rocket project and no because they hoped to sell it to a third party. It just happened to work out that way.

[Lobo]

A general unwillingness on the part of both Aerojet and PWR to invest in engine development without a solid customer to foot the bill may yet cost them dearly. With Blue Origin seeming to possibly about to take away ULA's NGLV business and Delta-IV and Atlas-V going away, AJR may find themselves without any business at all in as little as a decade beyond SLS at a rate of, what, eight engines a year spread across two models?

To be fair no company has developed an engine without a rocket or customer footing the bill. SpaceX and Blue both had a rocket meant to go with their engines. A new engine is going to cost a huge amount of money to design and build. I don't think it is logical to expect Aerojet or PWR to have sunk hundreds of millions of dollars into developing an engine with only the hope that someone someday might buy it. That would be an awfully large amount of money to gamble.

Also these engine projects take years. Not even one year ago the RD-180 looked safe. It would be difficult to produce an engine which could compete with it. The RD-180's development cost were paid long ago and its production labor is cheaper. There wasn't a good reason to replace it. Blue just happened to be developing an engine with close enough to what ULA was looking for when they needed to stat looking for a replacement. However Blue was doing that for their own rocket project and no because they hoped to sell it to a third party. It just happened to work out that way.

BO started development of BE-4 in 2011 but didn't sign any agreement with ULA until 2014.  Who were they developing it for?

[notsorandom]

A general unwillingness on the part of both Aerojet and PWR to invest in engine development without a solid customer to foot the bill may yet cost them dearly. With Blue Origin seeming to possibly about to take away ULA's NGLV business and Delta-IV and Atlas-V going away, AJR may find themselves without any business at all in as little as a decade beyond SLS at a rate of, what, eight engines a year spread across two models?

To be fair no company has developed an engine without a rocket or customer footing the bill. SpaceX and Blue both had a rocket meant to go with their engines. A new engine is going to cost a huge amount of money to design and build. I don't think it is logical to expect Aerojet or PWR to have sunk hundreds of millions of dollars into developing an engine with only the hope that someone someday might buy it. That would be an awfully large amount of money to gamble.

Also these engine projects take years. Not even one year ago the RD-180 looked safe. It would be difficult to produce an engine which could compete with it. The RD-180's development cost were paid long ago and its production labor is cheaper. There wasn't a good reason to replace it. Blue just happened to be developing an engine with close enough to what ULA was looking for when they needed to stat looking for a replacement. However Blue was doing that for their own rocket project and no because they hoped to sell it to a third party. It just happened to work out that way.

BO started development of BE-4 in 2011 but didn't sign any agreement with ULA until 2014.  Who were they developing it for?

Themselves, they were/are working on a reusable launch vehicle which would use the BE-4 as the first stage propulsion. As Tory Bruno puts it though Blue is very shy so not much is known about that project.

[Lobo]

Themselves, they were/are working on a reusable launch vehicle which would use the BE-4 as the first stage propulsion. As Tory Bruno puts it though Blue is very shy so not much is known about that project.

Ahhh....ok.

[Lars-J]

A general unwillingness on the part of both Aerojet and PWR to invest in engine development without a solid customer to foot the bill may yet cost them dearly. With Blue Origin seeming to possibly about to take away ULA's NGLV business and Delta-IV and Atlas-V going away, AJR may find themselves without any business at all in as little as a decade beyond SLS at a rate of, what, eight engines a year spread across two models?

To be fair no company has developed an engine without a rocket or customer footing the bill. SpaceX and Blue both had a rocket meant to go with their engines. A new engine is going to cost a huge amount of money to design and build. I don't think it is logical to expect Aerojet or PWR to have sunk hundreds of millions of dollars into developing an engine with only the hope that someone someday might buy it. That would be an awfully large amount of money to gamble.

Only in the world of these government contractors would that be such a consideration. In most other areas, corporations actually do have significant research and development budgets (gasp) to develop new products where there are no customers yet.

Don't act like PWR/Aerojet is in the poor house. They have had plenty of income over the years. But they won't lift a finger to actually do real development without a fat contract.

[notsorandom]

A general unwillingness on the part of both Aerojet and PWR to invest in engine development without a solid customer to foot the bill may yet cost them dearly. With Blue Origin seeming to possibly about to take away ULA's NGLV business and Delta-IV and Atlas-V going away, AJR may find themselves without any business at all in as little as a decade beyond SLS at a rate of, what, eight engines a year spread across two models?

To be fair no company has developed an engine without a rocket or customer footing the bill. SpaceX and Blue both had a rocket meant to go with their engines. A new engine is going to cost a huge amount of money to design and build. I don't think it is logical to expect Aerojet or PWR to have sunk hundreds of millions of dollars into developing an engine with only the hope that someone someday might buy it. That would be an awfully large amount of money to gamble.

Only in the world of these government contractors would that be such a consideration. In most other areas, corporation actually do have significant research and development budgets (gasp) to develop new products where there are no customers yet.

Don't act like PWR/Aerojet is in the poor house. They have had plenty of income over the years. But they won't lift a finger to actually do real development without a fat contract.

PWR/Aerojet make a product that isn't sold by itself. The money to make engines comes from the people who make the rockets who get their income by launching payloads. A new engine will never generate income unless it is paired with all the rest of the parts of a rocket. If the company doesn't make rockets then they have to work with another company who does. If there is no company out there wanting to build the rest of a rocket then making a new engine is a waste of money. The consumers of launch services have no use for just an engine by itself.

The major liquid rocket development in the US over the last decade has been by companies which are also producing the rest of the rocket. Those companies do have an end product which they can sell to the consumers of launch services. The problem is with how business is organized in this industry not that companies are not willing to build engine on spec. We aren't ragging on fairing manufacturers for not developing better fairings for the EELVs with just their own money.

[newpylong]

A general unwillingness on the part of both Aerojet and PWR to invest in engine development without a solid customer to foot the bill may yet cost them dearly. With Blue Origin seeming to possibly about to take away ULA's NGLV business and Delta-IV and Atlas-V going away, AJR may find themselves without any business at all in as little as a decade beyond SLS at a rate of, what, eight engines a year spread across two models?

To be fair no company has developed an engine without a rocket or customer footing the bill. SpaceX and Blue both had a rocket meant to go with their engines. A new engine is going to cost a huge amount of money to design and build. I don't think it is logical to expect Aerojet or PWR to have sunk hundreds of millions of dollars into developing an engine with only the hope that someone someday might buy it. That would be an awfully large amount of money to gamble.

Only in the world of these government contractors would that be such a consideration. In most other areas, corporations actually do have significant research and development budgets (gasp) to develop new products where there are no customers yet.

Don't act like PWR/Aerojet is in the poor house. They have had plenty of income over the years. But they won't lift a finger to actually do real development without a fat contract.

Irrelevant comparison. "These government contractors" are their only possible customers, unlike the "other areas" where possible customers are likely to be more numerous.

[Vahe231991]

Aerojet Rocketdyne completed the first AR1 rocket engine in early 2021. More info is available at these links:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/aerojet-rocketdyne-completes-ar1-rocket-engine-wont-fire-until-late-2022.html
https://spacenews.com/aerojet-rocketdyne-completes-assembly-of-its-first-ar1-rocket-engine/