DIRECT v3.0 - Thread 1

[Lobo]

I am not too worried about all of this. I mean, let's step back and take a look at all of this.

-Cx tries another FUD attack...Ares is not dead, but highly unlikely with the current budget. Unless congress decides to give NASA a bigger budget, Ares ain't happening.

-An all EELV solution will never happen. The job losses would never be allowed by Congress.

-The only option left is that medium-lift sweet spot that Direct and Not Shuttle-C fill. NSC is difficult for the crew launch and not ideal for future heavy lift needs.

I think when you look at it, Direct is that sweet spot in the launch vehicle options.

The problem is, they could choose to do nothing, other than push back their milestone dates for CxP.  Put all funding into Ares 1 to get SOMETHING flying back to LEO, and then Ares V just sorta putters around indefinately until a new administration down the road at some point steps in and either cancels it, or gets behind it and gets it finally built.    And that could be some time, irregardless of party.  The mistake is assuming that they will have to decide -something-...they don't, they can just let CxP wither on the vine for the forseeable future.  THAT's my biggest concern and a all-too likely outcome, unfortuantely.  Or even worse, Ares V gets cancelled up front and NASA gets only enough to get Ares 1 flying.  Everything else is diverted to other areas.

So let's all hope they do make a new decision, and not "do nothing".

[gladiator1332]

I am not too worried about all of this. I mean, let's step back and take a look at all of this.

-Cx tries another FUD attack...Ares is not dead, but highly unlikely with the current budget. Unless congress decides to give NASA a bigger budget, Ares ain't happening.

-An all EELV solution will never happen. The job losses would never be allowed by Congress.

-The only option left is that medium-lift sweet spot that Direct and Not Shuttle-C fill. NSC is difficult for the crew launch and not ideal for future heavy lift needs.

I think when you look at it, Direct is that sweet spot in the launch vehicle options.

The problem is, they could choose to do nothing, other than push back their milestone dates for CxP.  Put all funding into Ares 1 to get SOMETHING flying back to LEO, and then Ares V just sorta putters around indefinately until a new administration down the road at some point steps in and either cancels it, or gets behind it and gets it finally built.    And that could be some time, irregardless of party.  The mistake is assuming that they will have to decide -something-...they don't, they can just let CxP wither on the vine for the forseeable future.  THAT's my biggest concern and a all-too likely outcome, unfortuantely.  Or even worse, Ares V gets cancelled up front and NASA gets only enough to get Ares 1 flying.  Everything else is diverted to other areas.

So let's all hope they do make a new decision, and not "do nothing".

But then you have that gap to worry about. The gap has been called unacceptable by many. So pushing the schedule back more is unlikely. You can reduce the gap by going with EELV for CLV, but even then they would not go EELV only and would go with some type of SDLV.

I think Cx is starting to realize that their vehicles are no longer that "just right" option. Hence them going into panic mode lately.

[Lobo]

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/090722-ares1-rocket.html

Ares 1-X looks like it got pushed back another 2 months.  With any luck, NASA will shift gears before it launches, and they can recycle it back into an SRB for a Jupiter flight. 

You should see the new Halloween theme Ares I-X poster they came up with.

What Cx does with our tax dollars when they aren't coming up with reasons to not go with Direct: 

Ewwwwwwww......

Man, that -IS- scary!!

You could cut the irony with a knife.  The idea of sticking with Ares is scary...and they'll launch the first test flight on Halloween....  hmmm....
"Trick" or treat?

Um....trick?....

[zapkitty]

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/090722-ares1-rocket.html

Ares 1-X looks like it got pushed back another 2 months.  With any luck, NASA will shift gears before it launches, and they can recycle it back into an SRB for a Jupiter flight. 

Nope!

That "Unzip SRB at Max Q" test is actually needed.

The question is... the max q of which LV?

[Lobo]

But then you have that gap to worry about. The gap has been called unacceptable by many. So pushing the schedule back more is unlikely. You can reduce the gap by going with EELV for CLV, but even then they would not go EELV only and would go with some type of SDLV.

I think Cx is starting to realize that their vehicles are no longer that "just right" option. Hence them going into panic mode lately.

Unacceptable to many, but the only guy that really matters is the President, and he really hasn’t shown much public interest one way or the other.  Even during the Apollo 11 celebrations on Monday, the Apollo astronauts kept dropping “hints” that we need to go back to the moon and/or Mars, and the President kept sorta diverting the discussion to NASA will continue to lead in science but no specific mention of “human exploration”.   One astronaut (I missed which one) in a speech he gave that day to some group or other, came right out and said something to the effect of, “Mr. President, it’s time to get on with it and send humans to the Moon and Mars!” (Paraphrasing)
Unfortunately I didn’t hear anything from the President about exploring.  Just vague generalities about Apollo’s inspiration to him  as a kid and others, and the science that was accomplished that would be continued.

It may be nothing, but I was very disappointed that he didn’t mention human exploration on such a day when he and the country was celebrating manned space exploration.

But regardless, like I said, if they “do nothing”, they’ll probably continue Ares 1 as planned, gap or no, but basically suspend most Ares V development.  Perhaps even shorten it up a bit since they wouldn’t be doing much with Ares V, the LSAM, etc.  I think they’d need at least that.  At least something to show they are doing something still.  Once they have their new rocket, talk of going back to the moon settles down into “long term” projections and goals.

PS:  I -hope- CxP is legitimately considering Direct!  My fingers are crossed. 

[zapkitty]

PS:  I -hope- CxP is legitimately considering Direct!  My fingers are crossed. 

CxP? Remember to untangle and flex your fingers occasionally to prevent severe cramps over that long duration...

The Augustine commission is where any hope for sanity lies.

[cixelsyD]

Why spend time making a poster that has an extremely unlikely chance of being accurate?

[93143]

That "Unzip SRB at Max Q" test is actually needed.

The question is... the max q of which LV?

I thought a detonation was when the nozzle got plugged with a liberated chunk of propellant or some such.  A deliberate destruct should produce a more or less benign loss of casing pressure, and a fireball rather than a casing explosion.  Still unsurvivable for Shuttle, but not for Orion...

Or am I wrong?

[gladiator1332]

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/090722-ares1-rocket.html

Ares 1-X looks like it got pushed back another 2 months.  With any luck, NASA will shift gears before it launches, and they can recycle it back into an SRB for a Jupiter flight. 

You should see the new Halloween theme Ares I-X poster they came up with.

What Cx does with our tax dollars when they aren't coming up with reasons to not go with Direct: 

Ewwwwwwww......

Man, that -IS- scary!!

You could cut the irony with a knife.  The idea of sticking with Ares is scary...and they'll launch the first test flight on Halloween....  hmmm....
"Trick" or treat?

Um....trick?....

More irony:

What do you do when you are really scared...shake uncontrollably 

[zapkitty]

I thought a detonation was when the nozzle got plugged with a liberated chunk of propellant or some such.  A deliberate destruct should produce a more or less benign loss of casing pressure, and a fireball rather than a casing explosion.  Still unsurvivable for Shuttle, but not for Orion...

Or am I wrong?

Many people got that mistaken impression... mostly from hasty articles written with a decided eagerness to either:

A: Discredit the study as a  threat to Ares

or

B: Portray the study as the death knell of all SDLV's... long live EELV's!

The truth?

The study showed that in a standard abort scenario where the Ares I SRB is destroyed by the Flight Termination System, i.e. "unzipped" by the range safety package, at Ares I's high Q factors then the Orion LAS cannot pull far enough away from the resulting debris field to save the crew.

And that debris field, caused by the scattering of over a million+ pounds of still-burning propellant at that stage of the flight, will melt the parachutes of the Orion just by the radiated heat alone.

And the ballistiics have the Orion enveloped by the debris field all the way to the ground.

From 30 to 60 seconds MET it's 100% fatal for the crew of the Orion if the LAS is activated for any reason whatsoever... because the SRB must be terminated when the LAS goes into action.

100% fatal. A black zone. From the kindly CxP people who lied their asses off about EELV's being unusable because of blackzones. From the kindly CxP people who told everyone that Ares I was the only possible choice because it was the safest possible launcher.

As this situation is an artifact of Ares I's extreme flight dynamics and very high max q this news wasn't the fatal blow to SDLV's such as Direct arnd NSC that it was to Ares I as they each have a much lower max q...

... although it seems that NSC has its own LAS abort risks...

But the SDLVs are in the hightened risk range defined by the study so yes, an unzip test and plotting of the resultant debris field at the appropriate q for the LV that is selected would be useful.

As would an LAS abort test.

Edit: remembered to finish what I started...

[robertross]

Ewwwwwwww......

Man, that -IS- scary!!

You could cut the irony with a knife.  The idea of sticking with Ares is scary...and they'll launch the first test flight on Halloween....  hmmm....
"Trick" or treat?

Um....trick?....

More irony:

What do you do when you are really scared...shake uncontrollably 

That is too funny. Shake the ground, air, rocket...and faith in NASA.

But even scarrier is NASA trying to push a rocket they know is seriously flawed.

Maybe they get advertising revenue from all thesepromotional ads, like a sale going on??  LOL

[NUAETIUS]

http://nextbigfuture.com/2009/07/interview-with-ross-tierney-of-direct.html

Interview with Ross Tierney of Direct Launch by Sander Olson

Here is an interview with Ross Tierney. Mr. Tierney is a representative of the of the Direct Launcher organization, which has a proposal to get to the moon using NASA shuttle components and other existing technology. This Jupiter rocket system could also be used to go to near-earth objects and possibly even Phobos and Mars. The Direct Launch system is based on the Jupiter rocket, which can provide all of the capabilities of the NASA Ares system in less time and at a fraction of the cost.

Hope this has not been posted yet.  This is one of my favorite blogs

[93143]

The study showed that in a standard abort scenario where the Ares I SRB is destroyed by the Flight Termination System

DESTRUCT: FTS linear shape charge at MET = ~42 seconds, 17k ft-agl, 4.4k ft downrange, 1,000 fps (comparable to the discussed capsule abort hazard).

Okay, I fail.  I guess I didn't read the report carefully enough...

[gladiator1332]

http://nextbigfuture.com/2009/07/interview-with-ross-tierney-of-direct.html

Interview with Ross Tierney of Direct Launch by Sander Olson

Here is an interview with Ross Tierney. Mr. Tierney is a representative of the of the Direct Launcher organization, which has a proposal to get to the moon using NASA shuttle components and other existing technology. This Jupiter rocket system could also be used to go to near-earth objects and possibly even Phobos and Mars. The Direct Launch system is based on the Jupiter rocket, which can provide all of the capabilities of the NASA Ares system in less time and at a fraction of the cost.

Hope this has not been posted yet.  This is one of my favorite blogs

Thanks for the post. That was a great interview. I like the confidence in all of the answers.

[brihath]

But then you have that gap to worry about. The gap has been called unacceptable by many. So pushing the schedule back more is unlikely. You can reduce the gap by going with EELV for CLV, but even then they would not go EELV only and would go with some type of SDLV.

I think Cx is starting to realize that their vehicles are no longer that "just right" option. Hence them going into panic mode lately.

Unacceptable to many, but the only guy that really matters is the President, and he really hasn’t shown much public interest one way or the other.  Even during the Apollo 11 celebrations on Monday, the Apollo astronauts kept dropping “hints” that we need to go back to the moon and/or Mars, and the President kept sorta diverting the discussion to NASA will continue to lead in science but no specific mention of “human exploration”.   One astronaut (I missed which one) in a speech he gave that day to some group or other, came right out and said something to the effect of, “Mr. President, it’s time to get on with it and send humans to the Moon and Mars!” (Paraphrasing)
Unfortunately I didn’t hear anything from the President about exploring.  Just vague generalities about Apollo’s inspiration to him  as a kid and others, and the science that was accomplished that would be continued.

It may be nothing, but I was very disappointed that he didn’t mention human exploration on such a day when he and the country was celebrating manned space exploration.

But regardless, like I said, if they “do nothing”, they’ll probably continue Ares 1 as planned, gap or no, but basically suspend most Ares V development.  Perhaps even shorten it up a bit since they wouldn’t be doing much with Ares V, the LSAM, etc.  I think they’d need at least that.  At least something to show they are doing something still.  Once they have their new rocket, talk of going back to the moon settles down into “long term” projections and goals.

PS:  I -hope- CxP is legitimately considering Direct!  My fingers are crossed. 

I would have been surprised if he said anything significant.  He convened a Presidential Commission to look at the issue and offer up alternatives, but the deadline for that is still in the future.  By making remarks of any significance, he would have been jumping the gun.  Frankly, I was surprised that he went for the photo op with them.

Let's give the Augustine Commission time to do their work and make their recommendations.  His new NASA Administrator has been very vocal about where his sentiments lie, and I believe Charlie Bolden is way too smart to blindside the President with his opinions.

I think we just need to give the process time to work.  The DIRECT team got what they wanted with the hearings, an impartial review of the alternatives.

[gladiator1332]

But then you have that gap to worry about. The gap has been called unacceptable by many. So pushing the schedule back more is unlikely. You can reduce the gap by going with EELV for CLV, but even then they would not go EELV only and would go with some type of SDLV.

I think Cx is starting to realize that their vehicles are no longer that "just right" option. Hence them going into panic mode lately.

Unacceptable to many, but the only guy that really matters is the President, and he really hasn’t shown much public interest one way or the other.  Even during the Apollo 11 celebrations on Monday, the Apollo astronauts kept dropping “hints” that we need to go back to the moon and/or Mars, and the President kept sorta diverting the discussion to NASA will continue to lead in science but no specific mention of “human exploration”.   One astronaut (I missed which one) in a speech he gave that day to some group or other, came right out and said something to the effect of, “Mr. President, it’s time to get on with it and send humans to the Moon and Mars!” (Paraphrasing)
Unfortunately I didn’t hear anything from the President about exploring.  Just vague generalities about Apollo’s inspiration to him  as a kid and others, and the science that was accomplished that would be continued.

It may be nothing, but I was very disappointed that he didn’t mention human exploration on such a day when he and the country was celebrating manned space exploration.

But regardless, like I said, if they “do nothing”, they’ll probably continue Ares 1 as planned, gap or no, but basically suspend most Ares V development.  Perhaps even shorten it up a bit since they wouldn’t be doing much with Ares V, the LSAM, etc.  I think they’d need at least that.  At least something to show they are doing something still.  Once they have their new rocket, talk of going back to the moon settles down into “long term” projections and goals.

PS:  I -hope- CxP is legitimately considering Direct!  My fingers are crossed. 

I would have been surprised if he said anything significant.  He convened a Presidential Commission to look at the issue and offer up alternatives, but the deadline for that is still in the future.  By making remarks of any significance, he would have been jumping the gun.  Frankly, I was surprised that he went for the photo op with them.

Let's give the Augustine Commission time to do their work and make their recommendations.  His new NASA Administrator has been very vocal about where his sentiments lie, and I believe Charlie Bolden is way too smart to blindside the President with his opinions.

I think we just need to give the process time to work.  The DIRECT team got what they wanted with the hearings, an impartial review of the alternatives.

You are not going to hear Obama give any "we choose to go to the Moon" type speeches. To do so would be career suicide. Look what happened to Bush when he announced the VSE...every late night talk show host poked fun at it.
No wonder there were no more Moon related speeches from Bush.
Certain groups are looking to jump all over Obama for anything. So called "wasteful spending" on a Moon mission would be easy cannon fodder.

So it is all on the commission to find a plan that can work on a reasonable budget and time clock, and will not need much rallying from the President.

The VSE relied on a growth in funding. That needed political support and congressional interest...both of which will never happen. It is the world we live in and anyone who tries to work a plan around anything but this, then you are living in dreamland.

[daver]

Great interview Ross.  I've really enjoyed reading the Direct threads over the last two years.  Direct makes so much sense and it sounds like your voices are finally being heard where it counts.   NASA was given an opportunity with the VSE and they have almost ruined any chance of returning to the moon.   I don't believe that VSE was underfunded.  I do believe that Ares rockets are to expensive to ever be affordable.   Thanks for caring enough about the future of manned space flight to take action and make a difference.  The Direct team looked into the future and predicted Ares would never survive. 

http://nextbigfuture.com/2009/07/interview-with-ross-tierney-of-direct.html

[gladiator1332]

They better pick Direct...I mean, what the hell am I going to do if we don't have any more Direct threads.

[Eric Hedman]

They better pick Direct...I mean, what the hell am I going to do if we don't have any more Direct threads.

Think of whatever they pick as quasi-Direct, almost Direct.  They may even put the NASA emblems on different spots just to say it's not Direct  I sure don't think it will be the status quo.  I'm sure there will be plenty of things for many good threads to come.

[daver]

They better pick Direct...I mean, what the hell am I going to do if we don't have any more Direct threads.

  I would guess that when the Direct threads end, there will be a book for us to read.  Yes?