Quote from: hop on 12/03/2017 07:18 pmIf you look at the major developments SpaceX has actually done up to now, they've generally had an anchor customer (e.g. F9 and Dragon development got serious when there was NASA commitment.) Ideas that don't attract such a customer (hello Red Dragon, Dragon lab...) tend to get discarded or indefinitely postponed.I predict this pattern will continue.And it is obvious why. The U.S. government is on the hook to put something like $10 billion into SpaceX(past and on contract). With that ~$10 billion, they will have done maybe ~10 satellite flights, put ~60 mT of cargo into LEO and transported a couple of dozen astronauts into LEO. ...
If you look at the major developments SpaceX has actually done up to now, they've generally had an anchor customer (e.g. F9 and Dragon development got serious when there was NASA commitment.) Ideas that don't attract such a customer (hello Red Dragon, Dragon lab...) tend to get discarded or indefinitely postponed.I predict this pattern will continue.
Yes; two thirds of a Saturn V in thrust, but with 'only' about half the lifting power in expendable mode. A Falcon Heavy with a 5.4 meter wide upper stage powered by a Raptor engine, or a fully cryogenic upper stage like the upcoming ULA Centaur 5 would give very impressive performance in fully expendable mode. The Saturn V's LH2 fueled upper stages really made the difference.But we're very unlikely to see such a thing for the Falcon Heavy as I think it's going to have a relatively short career.
Quote from: MATTBLAK on 12/06/2017 11:54 amYes; two thirds of a Saturn V in thrust, but with 'only' about half the lifting power in expendable mode. A Falcon Heavy with a 5.4 meter wide upper stage powered by a Raptor engine, or a fully cryogenic upper stage like the upcoming ULA Centaur 5 would give very impressive performance in fully expendable mode. The Saturn V's LH2 fueled upper stages really made the difference.But we're very unlikely to see such a thing for the Falcon Heavy as I think it's going to have a relatively short career.Well you probably can fitted a centaur in a RUAG PLF (like on the Atlas V 551) with a probe to the outer system on top of the FH stack. As a super-sized kick motor. Wandering what would be the C3 velocity of a fully expendable FH with a single engine Centaur "kick motor" lifting something twice as heavy as the New Horizon probe?
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 12/06/2017 03:32 pmQuote from: MATTBLAK on 12/06/2017 11:54 amYes; two thirds of a Saturn V in thrust, but with 'only' about half the lifting power in expendable mode. A Falcon Heavy with a 5.4 meter wide upper stage powered by a Raptor engine, or a fully cryogenic upper stage like the upcoming ULA Centaur 5 would give very impressive performance in fully expendable mode. The Saturn V's LH2 fueled upper stages really made the difference.But we're very unlikely to see such a thing for the Falcon Heavy as I think it's going to have a relatively short career.Well you probably can fitted a centaur in a RUAG PLF (like on the Atlas V 551) with a probe to the outer system on top of the FH stack. As a super-sized kick motor. Wandering what would be the C3 velocity of a fully expendable FH with a single engine Centaur "kick motor" lifting something twice as heavy as the New Horizon probe?I think Falcon Heavy can already send 3500 kg direct to Jupiter for a gravity assist, or a 1,000 probe about twice the size of New Horizons direct to Pluto.With a Centaur 3rd stage it could send about 5,000 kg direct to Pluto, more than 10x New Horizons mass.
Two thirds of a Saturn V.
And it is obvious why. The U.S. government is on the hook to put something like $10 billion into SpaceX(past and on contract). With that ~$10 billion, they will have done maybe ~10 satellite flights, put ~60 mT of cargo into LEO and transported a couple of dozen astronauts into LEO. That is half of Elon's net worth and they aren't anywhere close to Mars with that amount of cash infusion. Elon can't fund it himself(yet).
Quote from: ncb1397 on 12/03/2017 07:27 pmAnd it is obvious why. The U.S. government is on the hook to put something like $10 billion into SpaceX(past and on contract). With that ~$10 billion, they will have done maybe ~10 satellite flights, put ~60 mT of cargo into LEO and transported a couple of dozen astronauts into LEO. That is half of Elon's net worth and they aren't anywhere close to Mars with that amount of cash infusion. Elon can't fund it himself(yet). Your post is in dire need of some perspective:- From 2006 to 2017 NASA has spent $12.4 billion on Orion with only one unmanned testflight to show for it.- The total NASA investment in Orion, from it's start in 2006 to the end of the EM-2 mission in 2023 is ~ $20.4 billion. And that is without the cost for the Service Module as that bill is footed by ESA.- From it's conception in 2011 to 2017 NASA has spent $10 billion on the Space Launch System with NO testflight to show for it.- The total NASA investment in SLS, from it's start in 2011 to the end of the EM-2 mission in 2023 is ~ $17 billion. And that is without the CxP investment in the 5-segment SRB of approx $1 billion.- NASA total investment in Boeing for CCP is $4.8 billion, whereas NASA total investment in SpaceX for CCP is just $3.2 billion. However, both providers fly the same number of crew rotation missions.- NASA paid SpaceX $1.6 billion for 12 CRS1 operational missions whereas Orbital got $1.9 billion for just 8 CRS1 missions.- A CRS1 extension of 8 additional Cargo Dragon missions cost NASA just $700 million.The ~ $10 billion the US government is paying to SpaceX is for the most part payment for "services provided". Only an estimated ~ $1.5 billion is actual investment money.And as envy887 already pointed out: for that ~ $10 billion the US government got a helluvalot more than just the items listed in your post.
Quote from: hop on 12/03/2017 07:18 pmIf you look at the major developments SpaceX has actually done up to now, they've generally had an anchor customer (e.g. F9 and Dragon development got serious when there was NASA commitment.) Ideas that don't attract such a customer (hello Red Dragon, Dragon lab...) tend to get discarded or indefinitely postponed.I predict this pattern will continue.And it is obvious why. The U.S. government is on the hook to put something like $10 billion into SpaceX(past and on contract). With that ~$10 billion, they will have done maybe ~10 satellite flights, put ~60 mT of cargo into LEO and transported a couple of dozen astronauts into LEO. That is half of Elon's net worth and they aren't anywhere close to Mars with that amount of cash infusion. Elon can't fund it himself(yet).