nadreck's "progression" of launch increases is probably the most plausible I've seen so far (Though going from 13 in 2015 to almost double that in 2016 IS a stretch I'd say )100 launches by SpaceX alone PER year by 2020?Randy
Quote from: RanulfC on 01/28/2015 03:57 pmnadreck's "progression" of launch increases is probably the most plausible I've seen so far (Though going from 13 in 2015 to almost double that in 2016 IS a stretch I'd say )100 launches by SpaceX alone PER year by 2020?Randy100 launches per year is a very bold projection. The market would have to start adapting already to require higher flight rates. I'm not saying it's impossible, just very optimistic.If they were doing one a week (52) they'd likely have something like 80+% of the world market.
BTW, to take my progression back to answer one element of the OP post. By my (totally WAG) numbers starting 2020 there would be a handful of recycled cores on hand. Also, diverging from the OP, I would opine that if there is were 100 flights in 2020 that 20 or more(12 at least FH) might be building, provisioning and servicing a private or joint private/public manned station. None of this "lets put up one module and let some rich people play in it then discard it". Instead a facility that can do commercial and institutional research, prototype manufacturing process at least, but also accommodate tourism. Something like 4 BA330's for accommodations and tourism and 4 for 'work'. I would consider probably twice the on orbit mass of the BA330's in other structure, solar arrays, specialized modules, tanks, station keeping thrusters/propellant, remote manipulators, and most importantly docking and expansion connectors. I would imagine that station will be planned with at least a demo/research centrifugal 'comfort/health' section to come in following years. The idea being roughly 480,000kg on orbit mass for the station by the end of 2020.
Quote from: nadreck on 01/28/2015 05:07 pmBTW, to take my progression back to answer one element of the OP post. By my (totally WAG) numbers starting 2020 there would be a handful of recycled cores on hand. Also, diverging from the OP, I would opine that if there is were 100 flights in 2020 that 20 or more(12 at least FH) might be building, provisioning and servicing a private or joint private/public manned station. None of this "lets put up one module and let some rich people play in it then discard it". Instead a facility that can do commercial and institutional research, prototype manufacturing process at least, but also accommodate tourism. Something like 4 BA330's for accommodations and tourism and 4 for 'work'. I would consider probably twice the on orbit mass of the BA330's in other structure, solar arrays, specialized modules, tanks, station keeping thrusters/propellant, remote manipulators, and most importantly docking and expansion connectors. I would imagine that station will be planned with at least a demo/research centrifugal 'comfort/health' section to come in following years. The idea being roughly 480,000kg on orbit mass for the station by the end of 2020.Not been much press about Bigelow recently (that I've seen), but F9R should make them much cheaper to get up there, and service. So I think you may be right, more space stations springing up, will increase the required flight rate for everyone.
They will have as many as they need