Author Topic: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?  (Read 7021 times)

Offline MattS

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In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« on: 01/28/2015 12:23 pm »
5 years from now, assuming full re-usability of the first stage, how many F9's and FH's will SpaceX have available?

Obviously this depends on their share of the launch market, so lets assume they're doing 100 launches/year at that point. Could be wildly optimistic... but I hope not.

100 launches/year means ~8 a month, so would they keep about 10 F9R's around and maybe 2 FH's? Of course this depends on how long it takes to reuse rockets and what payloads they're launching as well.

If they really do manage 20 or so reuses per engine (like I've heard), then it seems to me like they wouldn't need that many vehicles active at a time, which would slow down their production.

 Also, since I can't imagine large scale production rocket using the Raptor by then, would their production lines just have to produce that much slower?

Another thought. If rapid-re usability happens, wouldn't that limit how many rockets they have even more? Say you have 10 F9R's that you can rapidly reuse (eg less than 2 days to refly), is that what they're going for? Basically designing a fleet for regular use, then manufacturing expendables as needed? I guess it depends how many uses they're going to get out of each engine...but I'm answering myself now  :)

Feel free to run with the topic, I'm curious to see what insights you guys have into it.

(Insert typical first post ever message here  8) )

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #1 on: 01/28/2015 01:23 pm »
Welcome to the forum.

SpaceX are hoping to produce something like 15-20 cores this year, ~15 upper stages and 150-200 M1Ds (15 of which are M1Dvac).

Given the your scenario there might be a production of 5 cores, 100 upper stage and 150 M1Ds (100 of which are M1Dvac).

I think the factory would not be short of work.

Offline AncientU

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Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #2 on: 01/28/2015 02:09 pm »
Welcome to the forum!

Good question!!!

I would expect that when in the full reuse mode, there would be at least two of each flavor of launcher at each launch site that can handle them so that any mishap with a stage can be quickly replaced without a break in the launch cadence.  Given four pads, each launching about every other week to get to your estimate of 100 launches, this would require 8-10 F9s and 6-8 FHs minimum.  Since the Cape has two pads but is a single site, there may be some economies realized.  I also think there would be a few new-builds ready to go, hangered at McGregor as quick replacements.  So, roughly 15-20 complete vehicles plus/minus.

If some fraction remained expendible (which I think is likely), there would have to be a new vehicle flow to compensate.  Second stages would have to be pumped out at 2 per week if they remained fully expendible as EM stated for GEO second stages (which I think unlikely for repeated cargos like swarm-sats and fuel).  Raptor, Dragon, fairings, etc., and above production would keep Hawthorne at break-neck output.

If the launch number doubled from your estimate, Hawthorne would have to be cloned.
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Offline nadreck

Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #3 on: 01/28/2015 02:31 pm »
Taking Mike's idea in more detail, how that might evolve would look something like this:
(note my assumption is a little less cycles on the cores produced in first couple of years)


2015:  build 15 new cores & 13 2nd stage, recover 4, re-fly 1  (13 launches one is an FH)
2016:  build 26 new cores & 24 2nd stage, recover 16, re-fly 4 (24 launches two are FH)
2017:  build 26 new cores & 32 2nd stage,  recover 20, re-fly 14 cores 4 for the 2nd time (32 launches 4 are FH)
2018:  build 20 new cores & 40 2nd stage,  recover 30, re-fly 36 cores > half are 2nd and 3rd flights (40 launches 8 are FH)
2019:  build 20 new cores & 60 2nd stage, recover 60, re-fly 72 cores (60 launches 16 are FH) and a significant # of  FH launches are now SpaceX constellation

Note that I am assuming by 2019 that cores are only averaging about 4 cycles each before being used up on an "expendable" flight and of course that some recovered cores (mostly in 2015 and 2016) don't get recycled for various reasons.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline RanulfC

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Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #4 on: 01/28/2015 03:57 pm »
nadreck's "progression" of launch increases is probably the most plausible I've seen so far :)
(Though going from 13 in 2015 to almost double that in 2016 IS a stretch I'd say :) )

100 launches by SpaceX alone PER year by 2020?

Randy
From The Amazing Catstronaut on the Black Arrow LV:
British physics, old chap. It's undignified to belch flames and effluvia all over the pad, what. A true gentlemen's orbital conveyance lifts itself into the air unostentatiously, with the minimum of spectacle and a modicum of grace. Not like our American cousins' launch vehicles, eh?

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #5 on: 01/28/2015 04:31 pm »
nadreck's "progression" of launch increases is probably the most plausible I've seen so far :)
(Though going from 13 in 2015 to almost double that in 2016 IS a stretch I'd say :) )

100 launches by SpaceX alone PER year by 2020?

Randy

100 launches per year is a very bold projection.  The market would have to start adapting already to require higher flight rates.  I'm not saying it's impossible, just very optimistic.

If they were doing one a week (52) they'd likely have something like 80+% of the world market.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline SoulWager

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Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #6 on: 01/28/2015 04:36 pm »
nadreck's "progression" of launch increases is probably the most plausible I've seen so far :)
(Though going from 13 in 2015 to almost double that in 2016 IS a stretch I'd say :) )

100 launches by SpaceX alone PER year by 2020?

Randy

100 launches per year is a very bold projection.  The market would have to start adapting already to require higher flight rates.  I'm not saying it's impossible, just very optimistic.

If they were doing one a week (52) they'd likely have something like 80+% of the world market.
By the time they get to 100 flights/year, they should be their own biggest customer.

Offline guckyfan

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Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #7 on: 01/28/2015 04:46 pm »
About engines. The lastest statement by Elon Musk was 40 cycles (engine starts?) without refurbishment (probably some maintenance). Every 40 cycles refurbishment and replacement of some components is necessary. Total life cycle of engines much higher.

They would be busy just producing second stages if the launch rate gets that high.

Offline rpapo

Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #8 on: 01/28/2015 04:51 pm »
It looks like the basic maintenance (short of refurbishment) is to scour out the coking buildup every now and then.
Following the space program since before Apollo 8.

Offline nadreck

Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #9 on: 01/28/2015 05:07 pm »
BTW, to take my progression back to answer one element of the OP post. By my (totally WAG) numbers starting 2020 there would be a handful of recycled cores on hand.

 Also, diverging from the OP, I would opine that if there is were 100 flights in 2020 that 20 or more(12 at least FH) might be building, provisioning and servicing a private or joint private/public manned station.  None of this "lets put up one module and let some rich people play in it then discard it". Instead a facility that can do commercial and institutional research, prototype manufacturing process at least, but also accommodate tourism. Something like 4 BA330's for accommodations and tourism and 4 for 'work'. I would consider probably twice the on orbit mass of the BA330's in other structure, solar arrays, specialized modules, tanks, station keeping thrusters/propellant, remote manipulators, and most importantly docking and expansion connectors. I would imagine that station will be planned with at least a demo/research centrifugal 'comfort/health' section to come in following years.  The idea being roughly 480,000kg on orbit mass for the station by the end of 2020.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline AncientU

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Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #10 on: 01/28/2015 05:15 pm »
nadreck's "progression" of launch increases is probably the most plausible I've seen so far :)
(Though going from 13 in 2015 to almost double that in 2016 IS a stretch I'd say :) )

100 launches by SpaceX alone PER year by 2020?

Randy

100 launches per year is a very bold projection.  The market would have to start adapting already to require higher flight rates.  I'm not saying it's impossible, just very optimistic.

If they were doing one a week (52) they'd likely have something like 80+% of the world market.

From another thread, there are about 2,000 satellites operational today, supported by of order 100 launches per year.  The proposals before the ITC for satellite constellations to serve the internet comprise around 10,000 sats which will start launching in 4-5 years.  Assuming the current slow-growth (actually reported as 8.5% growth per year which would predict 150 launches per year) market continues along as it has been and these constellations are mostly growth of a new sector, a mere doubling of the launch market seems conservative.
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Offline JamesH

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Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #11 on: 01/28/2015 07:40 pm »
BTW, to take my progression back to answer one element of the OP post. By my (totally WAG) numbers starting 2020 there would be a handful of recycled cores on hand.

 Also, diverging from the OP, I would opine that if there is were 100 flights in 2020 that 20 or more(12 at least FH) might be building, provisioning and servicing a private or joint private/public manned station.  None of this "lets put up one module and let some rich people play in it then discard it". Instead a facility that can do commercial and institutional research, prototype manufacturing process at least, but also accommodate tourism. Something like 4 BA330's for accommodations and tourism and 4 for 'work'. I would consider probably twice the on orbit mass of the BA330's in other structure, solar arrays, specialized modules, tanks, station keeping thrusters/propellant, remote manipulators, and most importantly docking and expansion connectors. I would imagine that station will be planned with at least a demo/research centrifugal 'comfort/health' section to come in following years.  The idea being roughly 480,000kg on orbit mass for the station by the end of 2020.

Not been much press about Bigelow recently (that I've seen), but F9R should make them much cheaper to get up there, and service. So I think you may be right,  more space stations springing up, will increase the required flight rate for everyone.

Offline Jim

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Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #12 on: 01/28/2015 07:43 pm »
They will have as many as they need

Offline nadreck

Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #13 on: 01/28/2015 07:45 pm »
BTW, to take my progression back to answer one element of the OP post. By my (totally WAG) numbers starting 2020 there would be a handful of recycled cores on hand.

 Also, diverging from the OP, I would opine that if there is were 100 flights in 2020 that 20 or more(12 at least FH) might be building, provisioning and servicing a private or joint private/public manned station.  None of this "lets put up one module and let some rich people play in it then discard it". Instead a facility that can do commercial and institutional research, prototype manufacturing process at least, but also accommodate tourism. Something like 4 BA330's for accommodations and tourism and 4 for 'work'. I would consider probably twice the on orbit mass of the BA330's in other structure, solar arrays, specialized modules, tanks, station keeping thrusters/propellant, remote manipulators, and most importantly docking and expansion connectors. I would imagine that station will be planned with at least a demo/research centrifugal 'comfort/health' section to come in following years.  The idea being roughly 480,000kg on orbit mass for the station by the end of 2020.

Not been much press about Bigelow recently (that I've seen), but F9R should make them much cheaper to get up there, and service. So I think you may be right,  more space stations springing up, will increase the required flight rate for everyone.

Minor nitpik: F9H for a Bigelow BA330 they are projected to mass between 20,000 and 23,000kg.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline Jet Black

Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #14 on: 01/29/2015 09:55 am »
Jim's right, they won't take more contracts than they can cope with and they won't build more cores than they need to fulfil the contracts plus a margin. Anything else would not make commercial sense.
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. -- Richard Feynman

Offline Space OurSoul

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Re: In 5 years, how many F9/FHs will SpaceX have?
« Reply #15 on: 01/29/2015 05:03 pm »
They will have as many as they need

I think we need to start a "Jim koans" thread. This is a good one.

(With well-earned respect, Jim. I've honestly been enlightened by many of your posts.)

A complete OurSoul

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