Quote from: Robotbeat on 10/29/2017 11:09 pmQuote from: Mader Levap on 10/29/2017 10:14 pm First, as others noted, it will be many years before BFR flies (and it will not fly in 2022, forget it).Really? An assertion backed by ZERO evidence. In bold, too!Past history of SpaceX's performance deadline-wise is zero evidence, got it.Hell, even Musk himself, very well known for his optimism in timeline matters, said that date is merely "aspirational". In other words, it is never going to launch in 2022.EDIT: I forgot he was talking about Mars in this context. Still I find it extremely unlikely SpaceX for once will do everything on time. That would be pretty much miracle.Quote from: Robotbeat on 10/29/2017 11:09 pmOkay. Let's bet on it. If you're so confident it won't happen, you should be willing to take 4:1 odds against it happening. 4 beverages of my choice (value of each not to exceed $5) to your 1 beverage ($5) if BFR successfully launches to orbit by the end of 2022 UTC. Deal?I am not betting man, bragging rights are enough for me.
Quote from: Mader Levap on 10/29/2017 10:14 pm First, as others noted, it will be many years before BFR flies (and it will not fly in 2022, forget it).Really? An assertion backed by ZERO evidence. In bold, too!
First, as others noted, it will be many years before BFR flies (and it will not fly in 2022, forget it).
Okay. Let's bet on it. If you're so confident it won't happen, you should be willing to take 4:1 odds against it happening. 4 beverages of my choice (value of each not to exceed $5) to your 1 beverage ($5) if BFR successfully launches to orbit by the end of 2022 UTC. Deal?
Quote from: Mader Levap on 10/30/2017 01:12 amI am not betting man, bragging rights are enough for me.Okay! So you acknowledge they have at least a 20% chance that they'll accomplish BFR to orbit by 2022. Glad we have that settled!
I am not betting man, bragging rights are enough for me.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 10/29/2017 11:09 pmQuote from: Mader Levap on 10/29/2017 10:14 pm First, as others noted, it will be many years before BFR flies (and it will not fly in 2022, forget it).Really? An assertion backed by ZERO evidence. In bold, too!Past history of SpaceX's performance deadline-wise is zero evidence, got it.
Quote from: speedevil on 10/29/2017 04:54 amQuote from: john smith 19 on 10/28/2017 07:46 pm<snip - of blisks>TBH I'm amazed this was not designed in from day one, given the substantial amount of touch labor involved in assembling all those blades on a disk. Interesting also that close to a century after the first use of turbines in a rocket turbo pump they are still getting cracking issues.Designing is easy. Manufacturing is not.Which is why historically turbine mfgs have gone with making the disks out of one alloy and the blades out of another, allowing them to use the optimal choice of both material properties and grain growth direction for optimum performance. This is the "high performance" option.The joker in the pack is the large number of blade/disk interfaces, which can act as stress concentrators if not properly designed. Blisk or Bling designs are always a compromise in material properties and crystal growth axis. Given SX has always been strongly cost driven I was surprised they went for the high cost/high performance option. ............
Quote from: john smith 19 on 10/28/2017 07:46 pm<snip - of blisks>TBH I'm amazed this was not designed in from day one, given the substantial amount of touch labor involved in assembling all those blades on a disk. Interesting also that close to a century after the first use of turbines in a rocket turbo pump they are still getting cracking issues.Designing is easy. Manufacturing is not.
<snip - of blisks>TBH I'm amazed this was not designed in from day one, given the substantial amount of touch labor involved in assembling all those blades on a disk. Interesting also that close to a century after the first use of turbines in a rocket turbo pump they are still getting cracking issues.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 10/29/2017 11:00 pmPart of the effect of reuse is that it allows you to shut down your production line after a while.With the caveat that the number of reuses has to be high enough or the number of systems built is high enough and the systems have to be fully reusable. And of course what do you do when those numbers run out?
Part of the effect of reuse is that it allows you to shut down your production line after a while.
Does anyone know if NASA is getting a price break for agreeing to fly CRS-13 on a used booster? Is there anything in the CRS contract that would allow this?
Quote from: envy887 on 10/30/2017 01:30 pmDoes anyone know if NASA is getting a price break for agreeing to fly CRS-13 on a used booster? Is there anything in the CRS contract that would allow this?I would assume there is something, since it is the service provider NASA is paying (i.e. SpaceX) that wants to change the service offering (i.e. reflown rocket and spacecraft vs new for both). I would not be surprised if we can't see the info though...
Quote from: john smith 19 on 10/30/2017 07:20 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 10/29/2017 11:00 pmPart of the effect of reuse is that it allows you to shut down your production line after a while.With the caveat that the number of reuses has to be high enough or the number of systems built is high enough and the systems have to be fully reusable. And of course what do you do when those numbers run out?I highly doubt they are going to completely shut down F9 production before BFR is flying, just slow it down a lot. BFR needs new floor space and new tooling anyway, so the only major manufacturing resource conflict is for labor hours, which are reasonably easy to draw down without cutting off completely. They need to keep making F9 upper stages for a while, so it won't be that difficult to turn out a new booster once in a while.
I'd scrap them and sell the bits off as souvenirs.
Quote from: JamesH65 on 10/30/2017 03:25 pm I'd scrap them and sell the bits off as souvenirs.Can't do this. The Chinese would probably drive the price up out of the reach of common folks, and then a year later we'd be seeing an F9 rocket mosaic in Beijing.
I highly doubt they are going to completely shut down F9 production before BFR is flying, just slow it down a lot.
BFR needs new floor space and new tooling anyway, so the only major manufacturing resource conflict is for labor hours, which are reasonably easy to draw down without cutting off completely.
They need to keep making F9 upper stages for a while, so it won't be that difficult to turn out a new booster once in a while.
Its quite possible that SpaceX considers more expensive material/parts OK, when used on 1st stage that is designed/expected to fly 10+ times
I don't think it will take BFR long to fly.
Quote from: envy887 on 10/30/2017 12:07 pmQuote from: john smith 19 on 10/30/2017 07:20 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 10/29/2017 11:00 pmPart of the effect of reuse is that it allows you to shut down your production line after a while.With the caveat that the number of reuses has to be high enough or the number of systems built is high enough and the systems have to be fully reusable. And of course what do you do when those numbers run out?I highly doubt they are going to completely shut down F9 production before BFR is flying, just slow it down a lot. BFR needs new floor space and new tooling anyway, so the only major manufacturing resource conflict is for labor hours, which are reasonably easy to draw down without cutting off completely. They need to keep making F9 upper stages for a while, so it won't be that difficult to turn out a new booster once in a while.I don't think it will take BFR long to fly.
I suspect SpaceX is warehousing the pre-5 landed boosters as a way to get a jump on stockpiling F9 cores as a risk-reduction measure so they can switch the line to BFR as early as possible.So even if they never fly them post-5: It's an insurance policy. They can still refly those recovered cores (or part them out) in case BFR has teething problems and is delayed after they shut down the F9 booster line.
I am convinced that they will drop all older stages including block 4 once the first block 5 has been checked and reflown. They will not want a mix of different hardware in the inventory.