Poll

When will SpaceX launch their first Red Dragon mission to Mars?

2018 window
87 (49.7%)
2020 window
69 (39.4%)
2022 window
11 (6.3%)
2024 window
3 (1.7%)
Never
5 (2.9%)

Total Members Voted: 175

Voting closed: 07/23/2016 11:49 pm


Author Topic: POLL: When will the first Red Dragon mission be launched to Mars?  (Read 31248 times)

Offline jongoff

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And the answer is apparently not 2018...

Jon

Online Dalhousie

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And the answer is apparently not 2018...

Jon

Once again SpaceX predictions - and the expectations of their supporters - are shown to be unrealistic
Apologies in advance for any lack of civility - it's unintended

Offline high road

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Given Gwynne Shotwell's interview in which she said SpaceX isn't committed to launching Red Dragon before BFS and that 2020 is 'aggressive', 2020 is looking less likely too.

Offline guckyfan

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Given Gwynne Shotwell's interview in which she said SpaceX isn't committed to launching Red Dragon before BFS and that 2020 is 'aggressive', 2020 is looking less likely too.

I am not sure how to interpret what she said. It can be interpreted as they are unlikely to launch BFS in 2020, in which case they would launch RedDragon. I am still confident they will send something to Mars in 2020. Just no longer sure that something will be RedDragon.

Offline high road

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Given Gwynne Shotwell's interview in which she said SpaceX isn't committed to launching Red Dragon before BFS and that 2020 is 'aggressive', 2020 is looking less likely too.

I am not sure how to interpret what she said. It can be interpreted as they are unlikely to launch BFS in 2020, in which case they would launch RedDragon. I am still confident they will send something to Mars in 2020. Just no longer sure that something will be RedDragon.

Is there any reason to invest in developing Red Dragon if they already have BFS either in 2020 or the next launch window? Especially if we're still talking about the red dragon that can't deploy rovers.

edit: yes, I'm totally ignoring the other elephants in the previous post.
edit2: inserted quote I responded to for clarity.
« Last Edit: 06/29/2017 12:32 pm by high road »

Offline Paul451

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Is there any reason to invest in developing Red Dragon if they already have BFS either in 2020 or the next launch window?

Their "aggressive" schedule is to have ITS available for Mars test flights by NET 2023. However, realistically, just as Red Dragon slipped out to 2020 at the earliest, ITS will slip to the late 2020s. That leaves plenty of time to launch several fairly cheap Red Dragons to survey sites for ITS landings.



First image is Musk's timeline. Second is my "correction", simply assuming that Musk-years are Mars-years. [Because; a) it's funny, and b) it fits surprisingly well.]
« Last Edit: 06/27/2017 09:12 am by Paul451 »

Offline high road

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Working on two completely different systems in the same time, while both are fantastic in their own right and IMO are quite complementary even when available at the same time, is not a good way of speeding up a first launch. I'm hoping that they don't jump to ITS without doing Red Dragon first, or something that can deploy payloads more easily. NASA and ESA would like to use that, I think.

It wouldn't be the first time Red Dragon gets reinvented.

Offline guckyfan

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Is there any reason to invest in developing Red Dragon if they already have BFS either in 2020 or the next launch window? Especially if we're still talking about the red dragon that can't deploy rovers.

It depends. The intent seemed to be to survey a number of sites. Doing that with the expensive BFS and losing at least those which landed on a not downselected site is expensive. Doing initial surveys with a cheaper vehicle makes sense. If they now send much smaller, hopefully much cheaper landers than a full BFS on several sites it may be a good choice, given that they can deploy heavier digging equipment and larger solar arrays for evaluating water resources.

I think it was never an option to send a RedDragon that can not deploy a rover, if not the full size of Curiosity. There were plenty of statements by Elon Musk and Gwynne Shotwell that of course they can.

Offline envy887

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Is there any reason to invest in developing Red Dragon if they already have BFS either in 2020 or the next launch window? Especially if we're still talking about the red dragon that can't deploy rovers.

It depends. The intent seemed to be to survey a number of sites. Doing that with the expensive BFS and losing at least those which landed on a not downselected site is expensive. Doing initial surveys with a cheaper vehicle makes sense. If they now send much smaller, hopefully much cheaper landers than a full BFS on several sites it may be a good choice, given that they can deploy heavier digging equipment and larger solar arrays for evaluating water resources.

I think it was never an option to send a RedDragon that can not deploy a rover, if not the full size of Curiosity. There were plenty of statements by Elon Musk and Gwynne Shotwell that of course they can.

That's where a mini-BFS would be useful. Bigger payloads than Dragon, but still reasonably inexpensive.

Offline hop

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https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/887737030704115712
Quote
Musk: no longer believe that Dragon propulsive approach is the best way to land on Mars. Not the best way to apply resources now. #ISSRDC
Oh.

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/887737030704115712
Quote
Musk: no longer believe that Dragon propulsive approach is the best way to land on Mars. Not the best way to apply resources now. #ISSRDC
Oh.
Well it looks like NEVER won this poll... something I did not foresee...  :o
Gramps "Earthling by Birth, Martian by the grace of The Elon." ~ "Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou ~ Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Indeed. The first thing SpaceX land on Mars is going to be quite a bit bigger than Dragon!

Offline rockets4life97

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Time for an updated poll: When will SpaceX launch a mission to land on Mars?

Offline Lar

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Looks like the 5 members who voted "never" win this one. Sadly.

Time for an updated poll: When will SpaceX launch a mission to land on Mars?

Give it a few days but yeah...

What does "SpaceX" mean in this context...   (in terms of who paid for what)? So as to avoid wrangling later. :)
« Last Edit: 07/19/2017 07:50 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline hop

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What does "SpaceX" mean in this context...   (in terms of who paid for what)? So as to avoid wrangling later. :)
My 2 cents would be a lander developed by SpaceX or SpaceX as the lead contractor, regardless of who paid for it.

SpaceX launching hardware built by someone else (e.g. the role of Atlas in InSight or 2020) would just be a regular launch service. SpaceX developing landing hardware would be relevant to the whole Mars project, regardless of whether they convinced someone else to pay for it.

Offline high road

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Looks like the 5 members who voted "never" win this one. Sadly.

Time for an updated poll: When will SpaceX launch a mission to land on Mars?

Give it a few days but yeah...

What does "SpaceX" mean in this context...   (in terms of who paid for what)? So as to avoid wrangling later. :)

That would be a nice subcategory for such a poll as well: who will pay for (early) SpaceX transport services to Mars? Will NASA be allowed to develop payloads for it rather than for SLS? Will ESA/Roscosmos be willing/allowed to purchase ITS to actually get a payload to the surface intact? Will ITS bring prices down enough so scientists can send their own experiments? Hell, throw in space tourism and Mars One and whatnot for good measure.

Offline savuporo

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Check in on wisdom of the crowds.

I believe i voted 'never'
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline tesla

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Check in on wisdom of the crowds.

I believe i voted 'never'

Your comment, pointing out reality, is offensive to us snowflakes. please delete it.
Go SLS and Orion! God bless America.

Offline vapour_nudge

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Check in on wisdom of the crowds.

I believe i voted 'never'

I voted never too, a bitter-sweet result. But I voted never because I just can't see it happening at all, even with Musk. I'm tired of hearing it for so many years, always 10 years or so away. I just can't believe it would happen




Offline MATTBLAK

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Check in on wisdom of the crowds.

I believe i voted 'never'

Your comment, pointing out reality, is offensive to us snowflakes. please delete it.
A snowflake like me was a little depressed when I realised that Red Dragon would likely never happen. So I'm currently writing a short novella to portray a manned Red Dragon mission... ;)
"Those who can't, Blog".   'Space Cadets' of the World - Let us UNITE!! (crickets chirping)

 

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