Total Members Voted: 175
Voting closed: 07/23/2016 11:49 pm
I really can't believe that SpaceX would announce their intention to launch Red Dragon to Mars in the 2018 synod unless there was a complete, detailed design for the entire Red Dragon configuration (including all systems in the trunk) and for how that spacecraft will be operated and managed throughout its mission. And I'd have to believe that metal is already being bent on the spacecraft that will be sent to Mars.
Quote from: the_other_Doug on 06/24/2016 12:37 amI really can't believe that SpaceX would announce their intention to launch Red Dragon to Mars in the 2018 synod unless there was a complete, detailed design for the entire Red Dragon configuration (including all systems in the trunk) and for how that spacecraft will be operated and managed throughout its mission. And I'd have to believe that metal is already being bent on the spacecraft that will be sent to Mars.Heh, that's funny. You mean like how Elon only told his propulsion guys about how Merlin-1D was now going to be a 140klbf engine the day before his Falcon Heavy announcement? IIRC they had just come to tell Elon that they had managed to get the Merlin 1D test to a higher thrust than expected: ~124klbf.And when has anything SpaceX proposed actually happened on time? Why do we expect this time it will be different? Was Falcon Heavy not important to Elon? Commercial Crew flights? Etc?I actually think his idea of a regular milk-run to Mars is brilliant, I just think that people who believe this time will be different need to make a stronger case for why.~Jon
I'd like to preface this with the caveat that we're talking about SpaceX here, and sometimes they do employ, shall we say, innovative development techniques. But, that said...
And when has anything SpaceX proposed actually happened on time? Why do we expect this time it will be different?
I voted 2020. I disagree with the idea that Elon will just go with whatever SpaceX has ready in a 2018 timeframe. Mars is the whole reason SpaceX exists, so SpaceX's first attempt at going to Mars has huge importance and significance. Elon will want to maximise chances of success. Also commercial crew has a lot riding on it and politically Elon will want to prioritise that if any conflicts arise. If everything goes perfectly I think 2018 is possible, but more realistically it'll be 2020.
With a star chart in one hand and roll of duct tape in another, come hell or high water, they will throw a Dragon to Mars in 2018.
2018 for sure. Looking at previous Mars missions, what they're proposing to do is much less complex. They're also smart enough to describe it as a "test flight" so just like the first F9 landing attempts, they can point to a failure as a learning experience and a probable outcome.
Quote from: rcoppola on 06/24/2016 01:08 amWith a star chart in one hand and roll of duct tape in another, come hell or high water, they will throw a Dragon to Mars in 2018.Quote from: stoker5432 on 06/24/2016 02:24 pm2018 for sure. Looking at previous Mars missions, what they're proposing to do is much less complex. They're also smart enough to describe it as a "test flight" so just like the first F9 landing attempts, they can point to a failure as a learning experience and a probable outcome.I'm likewise willing to be optimistic for 2018. One advantage the capsule will have: it doesn't need life support to be installed like its LEO counterparts. Rocketry, both FH and retropropulsion, would be an item to watch.
Quote from: redliox on 06/26/2016 08:30 amQuote from: rcoppola on 06/24/2016 01:08 amWith a star chart in one hand and roll of duct tape in another, come hell or high water, they will throw a Dragon to Mars in 2018.Quote from: stoker5432 on 06/24/2016 02:24 pm2018 for sure. Looking at previous Mars missions, what they're proposing to do is much less complex. They're also smart enough to describe it as a "test flight" so just like the first F9 landing attempts, they can point to a failure as a learning experience and a probable outcome.I'm likewise willing to be optimistic for 2018. One advantage the capsule will have: it doesn't need life support to be installed like its LEO counterparts. Rocketry, both FH and retropropulsion, would be an item to watch.Yes, I can't see them not putting together an EDL test in time, even if it only delivers a tin of Spam for the Vikings. They shouldn't be afraid of embarrassment, as any failure at Mars probably wouldn't produce any newsworthy footage, but success would.
Well, there's this poll:http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37233.0Reporting my own post to the Mods...
2018, at about 70%.I find it difficult to believe that FH and Dragon 2 won't be flying at that point. So on the grounds that "something" is better than "nothing" I think they'll throw one in the right direction with as much on board as they are able to have ready. Now, I'd give them low odds of being able to do much useful with it other than EDL (ISRU testing is out until 20), but EDL by itself is valuable enough that the only thing I see holding them back is their ablility to manufacture Dragons quickly enough.
Why is two years enough for the project to evolve that much? Is it something magic about the alignment of the planets that helps SpaceX make great strides forward in two years time? ;-) Really... how come it won't take three years? Or five?
We're about a quarter of the way through the poll period, and right now about half of respondents think SpaceX will make the 2018 window, and half think it will be 2020 or later. Interesting.~Jon
Quote from: jongoff on 07/01/2016 07:57 pmWe're about a quarter of the way through the poll period, and right now about half of respondents think SpaceX will make the 2018 window, and half think it will be 2020 or later. Interesting.~JonLooked at another way, 90% believe that it will be before 2022. That is, either 2018 as announced, only two years away, or a single slip to 2020That is high confidence.Or Kool-aid drinkingTime will tell
Is it something magic about the alignment of the planets that helps SpaceX make great strides forward in two years time? ;-) Really... how come it won't take three years? Or five?
Quote from: sdsds on 06/26/2016 08:09 amIs it something magic about the alignment of the planets that helps SpaceX make great strides forward in two years time? ;-) Really... how come it won't take three years? Or five?Uh... yeah.
And the answer is apparently not 2018...Jon
Given Gwynne Shotwell's interview in which she said SpaceX isn't committed to launching Red Dragon before BFS and that 2020 is 'aggressive', 2020 is looking less likely too.
Quote from: high road on 06/25/2017 11:42 amGiven Gwynne Shotwell's interview in which she said SpaceX isn't committed to launching Red Dragon before BFS and that 2020 is 'aggressive', 2020 is looking less likely too.I am not sure how to interpret what she said. It can be interpreted as they are unlikely to launch BFS in 2020, in which case they would launch RedDragon. I am still confident they will send something to Mars in 2020. Just no longer sure that something will be RedDragon.
Is there any reason to invest in developing Red Dragon if they already have BFS either in 2020 or the next launch window?
Is there any reason to invest in developing Red Dragon if they already have BFS either in 2020 or the next launch window? Especially if we're still talking about the red dragon that can't deploy rovers.
Quote from: high road on 06/25/2017 08:52 pmIs there any reason to invest in developing Red Dragon if they already have BFS either in 2020 or the next launch window? Especially if we're still talking about the red dragon that can't deploy rovers.It depends. The intent seemed to be to survey a number of sites. Doing that with the expensive BFS and losing at least those which landed on a not downselected site is expensive. Doing initial surveys with a cheaper vehicle makes sense. If they now send much smaller, hopefully much cheaper landers than a full BFS on several sites it may be a good choice, given that they can deploy heavier digging equipment and larger solar arrays for evaluating water resources.I think it was never an option to send a RedDragon that can not deploy a rover, if not the full size of Curiosity. There were plenty of statements by Elon Musk and Gwynne Shotwell that of course they can.
Musk: no longer believe that Dragon propulsive approach is the best way to land on Mars. Not the best way to apply resources now. #ISSRDC
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/887737030704115712QuoteMusk: no longer believe that Dragon propulsive approach is the best way to land on Mars. Not the best way to apply resources now. #ISSRDCOh.
Time for an updated poll: When will SpaceX launch a mission to land on Mars?
What does "SpaceX" mean in this context... (in terms of who paid for what)? So as to avoid wrangling later.
Looks like the 5 members who voted "never" win this one. Sadly. Quote from: rockets4life97 on 07/19/2017 07:09 pmTime for an updated poll: When will SpaceX launch a mission to land on Mars?Give it a few days but yeah... What does "SpaceX" mean in this context... (in terms of who paid for what)? So as to avoid wrangling later.
Check in on wisdom of the crowds. I believe i voted 'never'
Quote from: savuporo on 07/21/2017 01:47 amCheck in on wisdom of the crowds. I believe i voted 'never'Your comment, pointing out reality, is offensive to us snowflakes. please delete it.
So I'm currently writing a short novella to portray a manned Red Dragon mission...
Not one way. Flags and footprints, crew of 2...
Quote from: MATTBLAK on 12/05/2017 07:04 pmNot one way. Flags and footprints, crew of 2...How are they meant to get back?