Author Topic: Do you believe in DIRECT?  (Read 70535 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #120 on: 01/14/2008 03:42 pm »
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clongton - 14/1/2008  3:41 AM

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Yegor - 13/1/2008  10:34 PM

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JonSBerndt - 12/1/2008  11:55 AM

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clongton - 12/1/2008  10:21 AM

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Yegor - 12/1/2008  11:00 AM

Hmm… All of sudden the number of people voted “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” doubled overnight (somewhere from midnight – in a very short time) from 19 to 38.
When “If accepted the DIRECT would require only sensible, peer-studied changes” gain only 10% - 11 more votes at the same time.
IMHO there is something fishy in this.
Why would you say that? It's pretty standard that when it comes to polling, a lot of people don't make up their minds until they see some of the early responses. There is something to be said for listening a LOT before you open your mouth. In actual matter of fact, DIRECT actually got its start that way. There was a WHOLE LOT of listening to people who know what they're talking about before the design even began to gel.
It does sort of seem strange. Particularly if no other votes were cast for the other items in the same overnight period - especially considering this poll has already been out there for a while.
Jon
The majority of people voted in the first couple of days. Then there was something like 7 votes a day. “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” was getting steady 10% of votes all that time.
Then all of sudden 30 new people voted overnight where “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” got 65% of votes. In that “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” number doubled. Then again there were 7 votes a day with the old distribution.
1. Unusually high activity in a short time period.
2. Totally different distribution.
3. Out of 19 peoples voted “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” just one voiced his opinion.
IMHO with the probability of 99% these votes were fabricated – someone just created many user profiles and voted.
Hmmm. That's possible.
Chris. Is there any way to check the validity of this suggestion? Put this way it sort of does sound a little odd.

No way of checking, sorry to say.
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Offline Oberon_Command

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #121 on: 01/14/2008 05:35 pm »
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Chris Bergin - 14/1/2008  8:42 AM

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clongton - 14/1/2008  3:41 AM

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Yegor - 13/1/2008  10:34 PM

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JonSBerndt - 12/1/2008  11:55 AM

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clongton - 12/1/2008  10:21 AM

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Yegor - 12/1/2008  11:00 AM

Hmm… All of sudden the number of people voted “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” doubled overnight (somewhere from midnight – in a very short time) from 19 to 38.
When “If accepted the DIRECT would require only sensible, peer-studied changes” gain only 10% - 11 more votes at the same time.
IMHO there is something fishy in this.
Why would you say that? It's pretty standard that when it comes to polling, a lot of people don't make up their minds until they see some of the early responses. There is something to be said for listening a LOT before you open your mouth. In actual matter of fact, DIRECT actually got its start that way. There was a WHOLE LOT of listening to people who know what they're talking about before the design even began to gel.
It does sort of seem strange. Particularly if no other votes were cast for the other items in the same overnight period - especially considering this poll has already been out there for a while.
Jon
The majority of people voted in the first couple of days. Then there was something like 7 votes a day. “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” was getting steady 10% of votes all that time.
Then all of sudden 30 new people voted overnight where “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” got 65% of votes. In that “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” number doubled. Then again there were 7 votes a day with the old distribution.
1. Unusually high activity in a short time period.
2. Totally different distribution.
3. Out of 19 peoples voted “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” just one voiced his opinion.
IMHO with the probability of 99% these votes were fabricated – someone just created many user profiles and voted.
Hmmm. That's possible.
Chris. Is there any way to check the validity of this suggestion? Put this way it sort of does sound a little odd.

No way of checking, sorry to say.

Could you try checking the IPs to see if there's a large number that have the same IP?

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #122 on: 01/14/2008 05:41 pm »
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Oberon_Command - 14/1/2008  6:35 PM

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Chris Bergin - 14/1/2008  8:42 AM

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clongton - 14/1/2008  3:41 AM

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Yegor - 13/1/2008  10:34 PM

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JonSBerndt - 12/1/2008  11:55 AM

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clongton - 12/1/2008  10:21 AM

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Yegor - 12/1/2008  11:00 AM

Hmm… All of sudden the number of people voted “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” doubled overnight (somewhere from midnight – in a very short time) from 19 to 38.
When “If accepted the DIRECT would require only sensible, peer-studied changes” gain only 10% - 11 more votes at the same time.
IMHO there is something fishy in this.
Why would you say that? It's pretty standard that when it comes to polling, a lot of people don't make up their minds until they see some of the early responses. There is something to be said for listening a LOT before you open your mouth. In actual matter of fact, DIRECT actually got its start that way. There was a WHOLE LOT of listening to people who know what they're talking about before the design even began to gel.
It does sort of seem strange. Particularly if no other votes were cast for the other items in the same overnight period - especially considering this poll has already been out there for a while.
Jon
The majority of people voted in the first couple of days. Then there was something like 7 votes a day. “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” was getting steady 10% of votes all that time.
Then all of sudden 30 new people voted overnight where “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” got 65% of votes. In that “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” number doubled. Then again there were 7 votes a day with the old distribution.
1. Unusually high activity in a short time period.
2. Totally different distribution.
3. Out of 19 peoples voted “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” just one voiced his opinion.
IMHO with the probability of 99% these votes were fabricated – someone just created many user profiles and voted.
Hmmm. That's possible.
Chris. Is there any way to check the validity of this suggestion? Put this way it sort of does sound a little odd.

No way of checking, sorry to say.

Could you try checking the IPs to see if there's a large number that have the same IP?

We can, but not one who posted for what.
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Offline Oberon_Command

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #123 on: 01/14/2008 06:10 pm »
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Chris Bergin - 14/1/2008  10:41 AM

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Oberon_Command - 14/1/2008  6:35 PM

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Chris Bergin - 14/1/2008  8:42 AM

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clongton - 14/1/2008  3:41 AM

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Yegor - 13/1/2008  10:34 PM

Quote
JonSBerndt - 12/1/2008  11:55 AM

Quote
clongton - 12/1/2008  10:21 AM

Quote
Yegor - 12/1/2008  11:00 AM

Hmm… All of sudden the number of people voted “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” doubled overnight (somewhere from midnight – in a very short time) from 19 to 38.
When “If accepted the DIRECT would require only sensible, peer-studied changes” gain only 10% - 11 more votes at the same time.
IMHO there is something fishy in this.
Why would you say that? It's pretty standard that when it comes to polling, a lot of people don't make up their minds until they see some of the early responses. There is something to be said for listening a LOT before you open your mouth. In actual matter of fact, DIRECT actually got its start that way. There was a WHOLE LOT of listening to people who know what they're talking about before the design even began to gel.
It does sort of seem strange. Particularly if no other votes were cast for the other items in the same overnight period - especially considering this poll has already been out there for a while.
Jon
The majority of people voted in the first couple of days. Then there was something like 7 votes a day. “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” was getting steady 10% of votes all that time.
Then all of sudden 30 new people voted overnight where “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” got 65% of votes. In that “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” number doubled. Then again there were 7 votes a day with the old distribution.
1. Unusually high activity in a short time period.
2. Totally different distribution.
3. Out of 19 peoples voted “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” just one voiced his opinion.
IMHO with the probability of 99% these votes were fabricated – someone just created many user profiles and voted.
Hmmm. That's possible.
Chris. Is there any way to check the validity of this suggestion? Put this way it sort of does sound a little odd.

No way of checking, sorry to say.

Could you try checking the IPs to see if there's a large number that have the same IP?

We can, but not one who posted for what.

Well, if someone DID create many user profiles, shouldn't they all show the same IP regardless of where they've posted?

Offline Giovanni DS

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #124 on: 01/14/2008 06:17 pm »
How many new users that day ? more than usual ?

Offline Verio Fryar

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #125 on: 01/14/2008 06:18 pm »
I voted option 3 "If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul". While I think the Direct team has done a great job, NASA is going to have different approaches and priorities. That could change a lot of design decisions. NASA could decide using RS68B and J2X instead the vanilla RS68 and J2XD. This alone could change the size or number of engines of the upper stage.

In every project that I have worked (software) there are lots of important details that get overseen during the preliminary design. Then during the detailed design, sometimes you have to "overhaul" parts of the architecture in order to add the forgotten details.

Offline DLK

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #126 on: 01/14/2008 07:31 pm »
I voted for #4, the premise being that the design has deliberately avoided the introduction of as much untested hardware as is practical (i.e., RS68B, J2X, 5-segment SRB, etc., J2X has been moved out of the 'orbital access' critical path, since it's not used on J-120). Anything new/untested added to the concept risks sabotaging the schedule (particularly J-120), which is one of the primary drivers behind DIRECT. While the devil is always in the details, I don't foresee the need for a bunch of jerking-around on this design (or at least the level of jerking-around that they're apparently having to do on ARES-1 now...).
-Dan

Offline Yegor

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #127 on: 01/14/2008 10:12 pm »
Since results of the poll can be manipulated I suggest voting by putting a post with your choice into this thread.
You do not need to do so if you already stated your opinion.
Then we can count posts in a couple of days.


Offline clongton

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #128 on: 01/14/2008 10:14 pm »
Quote
Yegor - 14/1/2008  6:12 PM

Since results of the poll can be manipulated I suggest voting by putting a post with your choice into this thread.
You do not need to do so if you already stated your opinion.
Then we can count posts in a couple of days.
Option 4
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline mattrog

Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #129 on: 01/14/2008 10:35 pm »
Quote
Yegor - 14/1/2008  11:12 PM

Since results of the poll can be manipulated I suggest voting by putting a post with your choice into this thread.
You do not need to do so if you already stated your opinion.
Then we can count posts in a couple of days.

option 4

Offline pierre

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #130 on: 01/14/2008 11:01 pm »
I voted option 4 too, mostly because I think it's pretty much impossible to do big changes to J120 and J232 without ending up with something that isn't DIRECT at all anymore (e.g. a 10m core). And NASA should ASAP stop buying paper and start buying rocket fuel.

But, IMHO, even if someone has voted multiple times it's not a big deal: this is only a small poll on a web forum, certainly not a scientific poll anyway.

Offline Scotty

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #131 on: 01/14/2008 11:10 pm »
Option 4

Offline C4NP

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #132 on: 01/15/2008 03:57 am »
Option 4  I have not voted priviously.

Offline kraisee

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #133 on: 01/15/2008 05:47 am »
I'm still voting Option 4.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline Seattle Dave

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #134 on: 01/15/2008 05:58 am »
I voted 3, simply because if anyone thinks an 80 page PDF only requires a peer study is deluded. I think this explains the low votes, as a lot  of people like Direct, but there aren't any real options here without sounding negative about Direct.

Offline kraisee

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #135 on: 01/15/2008 06:07 am »
There has always been the "add your own" option.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline JIS

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #136 on: 01/16/2008 06:51 am »
Quote
clongton - 14/1/2008  3:41 AM

Quote
Yegor - 13/1/2008  10:34 PM

Quote
JonSBerndt - 12/1/2008  11:55 AM

Quote
clongton - 12/1/2008  10:21 AM

Quote
Yegor - 12/1/2008  11:00 AM

Hmm… All of sudden the number of people voted “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” doubled overnight (somewhere from midnight – in a very short time) from 19 to 38.
When “If accepted the DIRECT would require only sensible, peer-studied changes” gain only 10% - 11 more votes at the same time.
IMHO there is something fishy in this.
Why would you say that? It's pretty standard that when it comes to polling, a lot of people don't make up their minds until they see some of the early responses. There is something to be said for listening a LOT before you open your mouth. In actual matter of fact, DIRECT actually got its start that way. There was a WHOLE LOT of listening to people who know what they're talking about before the design even began to gel.
It does sort of seem strange. Particularly if no other votes were cast for the other items in the same overnight period - especially considering this poll has already been out there for a while.
Jon
The majority of people voted in the first couple of days. Then there was something like 7 votes a day. “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” was getting steady 10% of votes all that time.
Then all of sudden 30 new people voted overnight where “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” got 65% of votes. In that “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” number doubled. Then again there were 7 votes a day with the old distribution.
1. Unusually high activity in a short time period.
2. Totally different distribution.
3. Out of 19 peoples voted “If accepted the DIRECT would require major overhaul” just one voiced his opinion.
IMHO with the probability of 99% these votes were fabricated – someone just created many user profiles and voted.
Hmmm. That's possible.
Chris. Is there any way to check the validity of this suggestion? Put this way it sort of does sound a little odd.

I think that 20 votes doesn't make any substantial difference. The outcome is the same. All active people voted in few days. Passive users voted later or never. The feedback from those active people here is clear.
'Old age and treachery will overcome youth and skill' - Old Greek experience

Offline JIS

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #137 on: 01/16/2008 07:12 am »
Quote
kraisee - 11/1/2008  11:34 PM

Constructive criticism is, and always will be, welcome regarding DIRECT.

However "constructive criticism" was not what JIS was engaged in.

While months of constant claims of "can't believe you" and "it will never work" are certainly criticism, they couldn't be termed constructive.   The purpose of all JIS' questioning has not been to help identify weaknesses in order to help us to improve the proposal, it has been to find weaknesses to utilize as justification why JIS must be right and we must all be wrong.

We put up with it for months.   Sometimes you just need to bite your tongue and just put up with people like that.   For a while it could even be 'flipped' into a good thing too because from time to time he gave us opportunities to explain bits of DIRECT in more detail - always valuable for new readers.

But his endless negative attitude simply chapped my a$$ the other day, so I called him out on it - publicly.   He clearly didn't like that and I embarrassed him.   He made this poll to try to rally support around him, but it backfired spectacularly.   Paraphrasing Cmdr. Jeffrey Sinclair in the TV show Bablyon 5: "You should never hand someone a gun unless you're sure where they'll point it".

But let it be known that even given this very clear and unveiled animosity JIS has shown towards the DIRECT Team's efforts, he is still most welcome to bring his questions back to the DIRECT thread any time he likes.

JIS has asked some pretty good things now and again - valuable things which have sometimes made us "check again" to make sure we are indeed covered correctly.   Such things are well worthwhile for us - it keeps us on our toes :)

But I beg him to please check the negative bashing attitude at the door in future.   Questions are very welcome, but that constantly-negative attitude is just not by anyone on the DIRECT Team.

I'm extending an olive branch over this matter - if JIS is willing.

Ross.

I never take internet discussion personally. It is just fight of ideas.
So, I can pretend picking up your olive branch you was hitting my virtual head with.
I know that you spend a lot of time with DIRECT and you have to take it personally. I'm afraid I'm spending too much time with this. It's time to give it rest.
'Old age and treachery will overcome youth and skill' - Old Greek experience

Offline anonymous1138

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #138 on: 01/16/2008 10:46 am »
Quote
Seattle Dave - 15/1/2008  12:58 AM

I voted 3, simply because if anyone thinks an 80 page PDF only requires a peer study is deluded. I think this explains the low votes, as a lot  of people like Direct, but there aren't any real options here without sounding negative about Direct.

Two things:

1) You apparently haven't been following the DIRECT story very closely, or you would know what the "80 page PDF" is built on top of,
2) ... which is a lot of work that had already been done on the NASA MSFC LV24/25 concept, and before that, the NLS (if I recall correctly).

Additionally, as with the ESAS, every page in the summary report represents a whole lot of work. Referring to the DIRECT proposal as only an "80 page PDF" is just uninformed.

With this poll, there is a lot that is left to interpretation, such as what constitutes "major overhaul"? The ESAS should have undergone a major overhaul when key aspects of it were found later to be invalid, or configurations were changed. Perhaps the question amounts to: Is the DIRECT proposal more viable than the ESAS one? If you take the longer, wider view of defining the word "viable", then DIRECT is more viable by a considerable amount, and appearing more so on a daily basis, in my opinion.

Note: I was not involved in the DIRECT proposal, but I've worked in the aerospace industry for a long time.

I voted for #4.

Offline kraisee

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Re: Do you believe in DIRECT?
« Reply #139 on: 01/16/2008 07:37 pm »
Hahaha.   Shows they haven't even bothered to look at the paper - its 131 pages!

EDIT:   Just to be 100% crystal clear, I'm not actually trying to be insulting to Seattle Dave - it genuinely made me laugh in a humerous way.   All I could think was underestimating the size of the largest AIAA paper in history by 40% deserved a "missed a bit" line!   Perhaps I should have added a smilie to show I mean no offense: :)

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

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