...There is one feature for Vulcan demanded by Boeing. That is that Vulcan will be manrated and certified by NASA from the start. That is so that CRS and CC flights currently manifested on Atlas V would swap to Vulcan and actually save the providers some in launch cost of up to $20M/launch. These represent up to 5 launches per year but would more likely be around 3 launches per year....
Battle brewing in the Pentagon over military space investments
...Hyten wants to see drastic changes in satellite procurements. He has been pushing the Air Force to stop buying complex, expensive spacecraft that he believes are “fragile” and “undefendable,” and instead start deploying more resilient networks of smaller, cheaper satellites that can be more easily replaced if they came under attack.
The Air Force last month issued a “request for information” for a “SBIRS follow-on” system, calling it a “unusual and compelling” need and setting a 2029 target date for its deployment.Hyten called it “ridiculous” that this could take 12 years.
The focus should be on investing in a “very good sensor” for strategic missile warning that can be attached to any satellite.
Hyten said he is prepared to draw a line in the sand if business as usual continues in the SBIRS follow-on program.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon has spent years trying to figure out how to buy wideband communications, he noted. “It’s just a commodity. Why don’t we buy it as a commodity?”
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 12/08/2017 04:54 pm...There is one feature for Vulcan demanded by Boeing. That is that Vulcan will be manrated and certified by NASA from the start. That is so that CRS and CC flights currently manifested on Atlas V would swap to Vulcan and actually save the providers some in launch cost of up to $20M/launch. These represent up to 5 launches per year but would more likely be around 3 launches per year....Annually:One crewed CS-100 (after Atlas V retires in mid 2020s)One Dream Chaser cargo (possibly also after Atlas retires)(Orbital planning all CRS-2 on Antares; SpaceX planning all CRS-2 and crew on Falcon.)Where do these potential 5 flights (or 3 flights) originate?
Quote from: AncientU on 12/10/2017 05:45 pmQuote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 12/08/2017 04:54 pm...There is one feature for Vulcan demanded by Boeing. That is that Vulcan will be manrated and certified by NASA from the start. That is so that CRS and CC flights currently manifested on Atlas V would swap to Vulcan and actually save the providers some in launch cost of up to $20M/launch. These represent up to 5 launches per year but would more likely be around 3 launches per year....Annually:One crewed CS-100 (after Atlas V retires in mid 2020s)One Dream Chaser cargo (possibly also after Atlas retires)(Orbital planning all CRS-2 on Antares; SpaceX planning all CRS-2 and crew on Falcon.)Where do these potential 5 flights (or 3 flights) originate?There is still unknown orbital space tourism market which Boeing would try to service with Starliner. SNC still want crew version of Dream Chaser, which would also go after tourist market and crew missions for countries. While cargo Dream Chaser can switch LVs easily, a crew version would be paired to single LV, most likely Vulcan.
While cargo Dream Chaser can switch LVs easily, a crew version would be paired to single LV, most likely Vulcan.
Thanks for the focused thread.I made up a spreadsheet a while back to compare various launchers and pricing for the GTO market, attached is the current version. Some notes on the spreadsheet: - The breakdown is based around ULA's 'dial-a-rocket' approach, so it looks at cost per kilogram for various sized payloads. This will be more cost efficient vs a one size fits all rocket, so its worth noting where ULA can be cheaper than other launchers for in between sizes. Max payload for any launcher is highlighted as yellow.- Current ULA pricing for Atlas 5 is shown. Because Vulcan is much more capable the pricing on the baseline variant is dramatically lower per kg of max payload.- SpaceX prices are shown with some guesses as to what Falcon Heavy MIGHT cost for payloads above what is priced on their website, and guesses at what it would look like for reuse discounts. For the sake of keeping the conversation on topic please don't read too much into these!!- Vulcan ACES payload estimates where taken from a bar graph ULA released - not super precise but its the best we have.- I believe the baseline price for Vulcan was to be $99M? We know from Rocketbuilder.com that each SRB is about $6M. Also we know that fairings will only be from the top of the upper stage and up, not encapsulated with Atlas V 5m so the shorter fairing shouldn't add a huge cost like with AV5.- The baseline Vulcan Centaur 5 will probably be close in capacity, although maybe not cost to these estimates. This is a huge unknown so initial variants of Vulcan aren't shown in this pricing.
The $99M figure was Vulcan booster with basic Atlas V everywhere else. It certainly didn't include Centaur V, which was just recently announced, or ACES, which was supposed to be introduced in 2025 or 2026.
Quote from: AncientU on 12/10/2017 09:43 pmThe $99M figure was Vulcan booster with basic Atlas V everywhere else. It certainly didn't include Centaur V, which was just recently announced, or ACES, which was supposed to be introduced in 2025 or 2026.Right, I forgot to add in Tory Bruno at some point stated that the goal for ACES was to get the costing the same as the current Centaur flying. That's why its still listed at $99M. Centaur V who knows though...
Why wouldn't NASA crew flights switch to Vulcan as soon as it's available and certified for HSF? I see little point in waiting for Atlas V to be retired, and if Vulcan is that much cheaper ULA will probably try to switch asap.
Quite the opposite, Bruno said Centaur III will be used for all remaining Atlas flights.
Quote from: envy887 on 12/10/2017 11:23 pmWhy wouldn't NASA crew flights switch to Vulcan as soon as it's available and certified for HSF? I see little point in waiting for Atlas V to be retired, and if Vulcan is that much cheaper ULA will probably try to switch asap.Why are they buying sufficient RD-180s to last well past the 2022 deadline/embargo? Jim says transition will extend until mid-2020s. Seems that they'll use the remaining inventory for civil flights if NSS become off-limits in 2022.