Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1b - Lotos-S1#7 (Kosmos 2570) - Plesetsk - Oct 27, 2023 (06:04 UTC)  (Read 17061 times)

Offline Alter Sachse

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"My estimate of the launch time, based on Space Force tracking, is 0605 UTC Oct  27."

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1717925911742292333
NK:09:04:43 = 06:04:43
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
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Offline Alter Sachse

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Higher resolution
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

Offline Satori

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From the previous video...

Offline Bean Kenobi

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From the previous video...

Satori, why are you naming these pictures "Cosmos 2579" please ? Isn't it 2570 ?  ???
« Last Edit: 10/27/2023 07:20 pm by Bean Kenobi »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1717974274529702205

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CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-165) of COSMOS 2570 atop a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Oct 27 at ~0605 UTC: russianspaceweb.com/lotos-s1-808.h…. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-165.

Offline Alter Sachse

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Yes should be Kosmos 2570.
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

Offline Satori

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From the previous video...

Satori, why are you naming these pictures "Cosmos 2579" please ? Isn't it 2570 ?  ???

My error, yes 2570.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Yes should be Kosmos 2570.

Note that there has been no official confirmation from the Russian Ministry of Defense that the satellite is named Kosmos-2570. That will probably have to wait until the satellite is registered with the UN. For some reason, the same happened with the previous Lotos satellite (Kosmos-2565) last year.

The Two-Line Elements for Kosmos-2570 show that it has opened up a new orbital plane in the Lotos-S constellation, which now consists of four operational satellites (Kosmos-2549, 2554, 2565 and 2570). The three earlier satellites are in planes separated by about 120°. Kosmos-2570 has been placed into a plane that is about halfway between that of Kosmos-2554 and 2549. One can assume that the next one will occupy a fifth plane halfway between either Kosmos-2549 and Kosmos-2565 or Kosmos-2565 and Kosmos-2554, at least if all four are still operational by that time.

That next Lotos will be the last of a batch of four (serial numbers 806 to 809) ordered by the Ministry of Defense in 2017. According to press reports, the MoD signed a contract for the delivery of more Lotos satellites during the Army 2022 exhibition in August last year, but it is unknown how many were ordered and when they will be ready to fly. Meanwhile, it looks like the Lotos satellites will not be joined any time soon by a second Pion-NKS satellite, the other member of the Liana system. A press report in November last year said that no final decision had yet been made to go ahead with the construction of the second Pion.

The fact that more Lotos satellites have been ordered may indicate that the next-generation low-orbit ELINT system (“Akvarel”) has been either indefinitely delayed or canceled altogether. Nothing has been heard of it for many years. Akvarel was assigned to ISS Reshetnev back in 2014.

Offline catdlr

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« Last Edit: 10/29/2023 09:38 am by catdlr »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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The expected Object C has appeared in an 893x914 km orbit. Object A is still shown to be in a 245x899 km orbit, but that data hasn’t been updated for more than two days.

Offline Alter Sachse

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Current data:
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Lotos and its subsatellite will most likely be officially registered with the UN as Kosmos-2570 and Kosmos-2571 in the coming weeks. The same happened after the Lotos launch late last year (Kosmos-2565/2566).

During that mission, Object C split into two parts about three weeks after launch, so we may see something like that again this time around. If the subsatellite and its adapter separate from Lotos together, this could be the moment when the subsatellite is ejected from the adapter. But one obvious question is why it would take so long for this to happen, so this may not be the most satisfactory explanation for that event.

So far the purpose of these subsatellites cannot be identified, but here's some (hopefully educated) speculation from the Kosmos-2565 thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=57749.40

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So far, the purpose of the subsatellite remains open to speculation. One possibility is that it is a product of the TsNIRTI institute in Moscow, which is the prime contractor for Lotos-S and builds its electronic intelligence payload (the overall design of the satellite is in the hands of KB Arsenal and it is integrated at the Arsenal Machine Building Factory).  In recent years, TsNIRTI has published several articles on the possibility of building much smaller ELINT satellites that would use the so-called multi-position geolocation method to accurately determine the position of radio-emitting sources on the ground. This could be achieved by using a pair of satellites to simultaneously pick up signals from such a source or a single satellite that would pick up the signals from slightly different locations in its orbit. The latter proposal was the subject of a patent and an article published in 2020 and 2021 respectively.
https://patents.s3.yandex.net/RU2734108C1_20201013.pdf
https://raen.info/upload/redactorfiles/03-10_budk.pdf

The drawing in the attachment is from the article and shows a single satellite picking up signals from a ground-based radar from three different locations in its orbit. The satellite depicted here is a Lotos-S, but this must have been chosen arbitrarily because the article clearly refers to a small satellite.

Another TsNIRTI article by some of the same authors says that the single-satellite geolocation method could be used to pinpoint the location of targets for electronic warfare satellites.
 https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=44335240
As a reminder, KB Arsenal is working on a nuclear-powered satellite called Ekipazh (14F350) with an electronic warfare payload that may well be provided by TsNIRTI.

According to the 2021 TsNIRTI article, the single-satellite geolocation method was to be tested “in real conditions on experimental products“, a possible sign that these were more than just paper studies.  TsNIRTI (which has not yet built any satellites in house) could build such small satellites in cooperation with KB Arsenal or other organizations. For instance, it has close ties with the MIREA Russian Technological University (RTU MIREA) in Moscow, which has done some work on cubesats. As can be determined from court documentation, RTU MIREA also has some kind of role in Ekipazh.

So Kosmos-2566 could potentially demonstrate the possibility of flying an ELINT payload on a small satellite, possibly paving the way for future constellations of such satellites that could among other things locate targets for electronic warfare satellites. I should caution though that there is no solid evidence linking Kosmos-2566 to the TsNIRTI research.  Although it would make sense for TsNIRTI to launch such a satellite together with one of its own Lotos-S satellites, the parent satellite and the subsatellite do not necessarily have to be products of one and the same company.   

Offline B. Hendrickx

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A new object (Object D) from this launch has appeared in orbit. According to a tweet from a company named LeoLabs, it separated from Object C on November 23 around 14.00 UTC. Object C is a subsatellite that was released from Kosmos-2570 on October 30. The same happened with the subsatellite (Kosmos-2566) released from Kosmos-2565 last year. It ejected an object 21 days after separating from Kosmos-2565. This time the interval between the appearance of Object C and D was somewhat longer,  namely 24 days. One possible explanation is that this is the moment that the subsatellite separates from the adapter with which it was originally attached to the Lotos satellite.

Object C has not yet been registered with the UN, but will likely be called Kosmos-2571. It will be interesting to see what Kosmos number(s) is/are given to the satellite(s) expected to be launched from Plesetsk later today (if any names are announced at all). 

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Object D appears to be an active satellite. It has maneuvered and it made a close pass to Object C on December 6.

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/12/leolabs-russia-china-time-suspicious-space-activity-for-some-us-holidays/

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....
The latest evidence happened on Nov. 23, US Thanksgiving, when Russia’s Cosmos 2570 satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO) revealed itself to be a Matryoshka (nesting) doll system — comprising three consecutively smaller birds, performing up-close operations around each other, according to the company.
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With regard to Cosmos 2570, LeoLabs’s analysis said that based on Space Force’s data, the service’s 18th Space Defense Squadron, responsible for space domain awareness, lost track of it when it maneuvered shortly after launch, but that LeoLabs days later was able to find it and its daughter, called Object C. “We were able to track both objects quickly and send frequent updates. On November 24, we were the first to detect, catalog, and deliver alerts to the Joint Task Force – Space Defense (JCO) on a secondary object released by sub-satellite Object C before the public catalog was able to respond. This prompted urgent action by all parties to track and identify the new object, now called Object D,” said the LeoLabs analysis, provided to Breaking Defense.
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Then on Dec. 6, Cosmos 2570’s granddaughter began another maneuver, bringing it within less than 1 kilometer of its mother — extremely close and well beyond what is normally considered safe for orbital operations, Heath said. That move happened in “favorable lighting conditions,” suggesting that the granddaughter “has an electro-optical (EO) sensor payload.”

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Kosmos-2571, the passenger satellite released from Kosmos-2570 last year, continues to be very active. It has made numerous orbit corrections over the past year. These kept it roughly 5 km above the orbit of Kosmos-2570 until late July, after which it spent the following months flying about 20 km below its parent satellite. Then in late November, Kosmos-2571 increased its altitude again for a close encounter with Object D, the object it had ejected itself in late November last year. According to calculations made by Robert Christy, the closest approach took place on November 29 at a range of roughly 2 km and a relative speed of less than 10 m/s.

Cosmos 2571 subsequently moved away from Object D, but after having reached a distance of about 250 km from it performed another thruster firing on December 3 to move back towards Object D. Another encounter between the two objects, this time at a range of barely 200 m, took place on December 5.

Attached is an image of the two objects taken over South America on December 5 when they were about 10 km apart (posted on X by @s2a_systems). Also see two graphs posted on the "Novosti kosmonavtiki" forum, one showing the evolution of the orbits of Kosmos-2570/2571/Object D and another showing the encounter on November 29.   

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