Author Topic: Thoughts on operations AFTER New Glenn is flying  (Read 1663 times)

Offline deadman1204

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Thoughts on operations AFTER New Glenn is flying
« on: 03/08/2021 05:49 pm »
Most of the discussions I see compare Blue vs spaceX as they are. I'd like to avoid that and instead look to the future when New Glenn is flying.

How do people see the companies operating differently? I'd like to leave out the semi hyperbolic idea that no other rocket will ever fly again after starship. While SS and SH will be awesome, there will still be other launch providers (If for no other reason that its too dangerous to have all your eggs on a single rocket).

One thing I suspect is that Blue won't be insulated from market pressures. Rich as he is, Bezos won't fully fund Blue indefinitely. Once it starts launching the company will get something it dearly needs - motivation to compete. That little kick in the butt to move faster.

Online trimeta

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Re: Thoughts on operations AFTER New Glenn is flying
« Reply #1 on: 03/08/2021 06:35 pm »
I think there's absolutely room for a second launch provider, but in this "race for second place," I'm not sure how well Blue Origin does. They'll likely beat ULA, so if that's their only competition they're in good shape, picking up a good chuck of government contracts as well as megaconstellations which directly compete with Starlink and don't want to pay a competitor for access to space. I'd put Project Kuiper in that second category as well.

But if there are others going for broadly the same market, I don't think Blue Origin can pivot fast enough to remain competitive. Sure, it's questionable right now if/when Firefly and Rocket Lab will launch their 8-ton vehicles, or Relativity their 20-ton vehicle, and New Glenn will likely have a couple of years as the de facto alternative to Starship (and Falcon 9/Heavy). But if some or all of those smaller vehicles succeed, and can significantly undercut New Glenn's launch price while carrying most customer payloads, that severely hampers New Glenn's market. At that point they may become ULA in full, surviving solely through government contracts designed to ensure a duopoly of super-heavy lift vehicles.

Offline spacenut

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Re: Thoughts on operations AFTER New Glenn is flying
« Reply #2 on: 03/08/2021 06:38 pm »
It all depends on the bids and the costs.

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