Author Topic: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5  (Read 38015 times)

Offline JayWee

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #40 on: 11/16/2023 07:50 pm »
Irrespective of a buy-out, NG gets delayed, Vulcan has a longer run than currently predicted.
Hmm.. BO effectively "subcontracting" Kuiper NG launches to Vulcan could make sense.

Offline StraumliBlight

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #41 on: 11/16/2023 08:54 pm »
This would also reduce the likelihood of Vulcan's SMART reuse ever coming to fruition, if the plan is to phase out Vulcan and replace it with New Glenn anyway.

Tory Bruno is currently doing a Reddit AMA and seems pretty upbeat on SMART.

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Q: Also how would the engine bay recovery and refurbishment operations work for BE-4 and Vulcan? Do you think there will be problems with contamination from sea water?

A: Recovery will return to Florida. Initial engines will likely return to factory for full check out. Later on intend to inspect and reinstall at the Cape.
The key is to not get them wet. Fortunately, the exit plane of the bells sits over 20 feet above the water. Also developing options for spray shields
.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #42 on: 11/16/2023 09:19 pm »
This would also reduce the likelihood of Vulcan's SMART reuse ever coming to fruition, if the plan is to phase out Vulcan and replace it with New Glenn anyway.

Tory Bruno is currently doing a Reddit AMA and seems pretty upbeat on SMART.

Quote
Q: Also how would the engine bay recovery and refurbishment operations work for BE-4 and Vulcan? Do you think there will be problems with contamination from sea water?

A: Recovery will return to Florida. Initial engines will likely return to factory for full check out. Later on intend to inspect and reinstall at the Cape.
The key is to not get them wet. Fortunately, the exit plane of the bells sits over 20 feet above the water. Also developing options for spray shields
.

His job is to do exactly that.  Until the sale is final, you go full bore as if it isn't on the table even.
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #43 on: 11/27/2023 11:49 am »
This may be nothing to do with Blue Origin - can move elsewhere once clear - but any ideas?

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An unusual piece of cargo coming into Port Canaveral this morning from the shipyard of a contractor known to work with Blue Origin (and other Space companies...)

nsf.live/spacecoast

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1729117261724868815

Offline seb21051

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #44 on: 11/27/2023 03:44 pm »
Inverse Chopstick carriage.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #45 on: 11/27/2023 06:40 pm »
https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1729201462201454999

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The Blue Origin-owned crane at Port Canaveral is moving in to lift the delivery that arrived this morning... (I think it's a jig of some kind)

nsf.live/spacecoast

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #46 on: 11/27/2023 07:22 pm »
https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1729232959616491908

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Big day for Blue Origin fans!

The (suspected) jig has now been unloaded at Port Canaveral by the company crane - the first major lift for this crane too!

nsf.live/spacecoast

Offline jstrotha0975

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #47 on: 12/13/2023 02:15 pm »
Any updates on Blue Origins landing barge?

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #48 on: 12/14/2023 06:07 pm »
https://twitter.com/lexfridman/status/1735360877312778404

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Here's my conversation with @jeffbezos, founder of Amazon and Blue Origin. This is his first time doing a long-form conversation of this kind, and it was an epic one.

It's here on X in full & is up on YouTube, Spotify, and everywhere else.

Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
0:24 - Texas ranch and childhood
4:02 - Space exploration and rocket engineering
16:36 - Physics
26:10 - New Glenn rocket
1:08:59 - Lunar program
1:18:55 - Amazon
1:36:16 - Principles
1:54:56 - Productivity
2:05:34 - Future of humanity


Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #49 on: 12/14/2023 06:08 pm »
From the above interview:

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.@JeffBezos re: New Glenn in conversation with @lexfridman:

"Very optimistic" for a first launch in 2024, but unsure what payload it will carry. Possibly EscaPADE. "We also have other things that might go on that first mission."

"Extremely nervous" about first launch.

https://twitter.com/johnkrausphotos/status/1735365667937722502

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"Blue Origin needs to be much faster and it's one of the reasons I left my role as the CEO of Amazon a couple of years ago. I wanted to come in, and Blue Origin needs me right now."

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #50 on: 12/15/2023 06:02 am »
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1735406727917379601

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I do love to see Jeff Bezos engaged at Blue Origin. "We're going to become the world's most decisive company across any industry," he said. "We're going to get really good at taking appropriate technology risks, making those decisions quickly." Article:

https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/12/jeff-bezos-says-what-were-all-thinking-blue-origin-needs-to-be-much-faster/

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Jeff Bezos says what we’re all thinking: “Blue Origin needs to be much faster”
"We're going to become the world's most decisive company across any industry."

by Eric Berger - Dec 14, 2023 8:37pm GMT

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #51 on: 12/15/2023 04:08 pm »
Discovered this Youtube presenter. Has some good videos worth a watch.



In regards to this thread forget RL bit, what is interesting is his take on Blue.

My worry with Blue is succession especially as its a very expensive hobby company. Will Bezos estate keep funding it to tune of $1B a year if he dies.  Just look at Stratolauncher history.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #52 on: 12/15/2023 06:29 pm »
<snip>
In regards to this thread forget RL bit, what is interesting is his take on Blue.

My worry with Blue is succession especially as its a very expensive hobby company. Will Bezos estate keep funding it to tune of $1B a year if he dies.  Just look at Stratolauncher history.
It is up to Jeff to set up and funded a trust to keep Blue Origin as ongoing business after he isn't around.

But I don't think Blue Origin's current woes is money. The company has no focus and no long term goals. Their previous CEO and top management is too much bean counting and empire building without too much long term strategy for the company.

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #53 on: 12/15/2023 09:24 pm »
<snip>
In regards to this thread forget RL bit, what is interesting is his take on Blue.

My worry with Blue is succession especially as its a very expensive hobby company. Will Bezos estate keep funding it to tune of $1B a year if he dies.  Just look at Stratolauncher history.
It is up to Jeff to set up and funded a trust to keep Blue Origin as ongoing business after he isn't around.

But I don't think Blue Origin's current woes is money. The company has no focus and no long term goals. Their previous CEO and top management is too much bean counting and empire building without too much long term strategy for the company.
It's up to Jeff to turn it into a profitable business as soon as possible so it can keep going after he's gone.  If it makes money doing what he envisions, it will continue.  Then his heirs can keep it or sell it.  If it needs a trust to keep funding it in the long haul, it's a waste of time and money.

Offline Oersted

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #54 on: 12/31/2023 07:05 am »
It's up to Jeff to turn it into a profitable business as soon as possible so it can keep going after he's gone.  If it makes money doing what he envisions, it will continue.  Then his heirs can keep it or sell it.  If it needs a trust to keep funding it in the long haul, it's a waste of time and money.

Disagree.

I don't think asteroid mining will become profitable over a short lifespan. If an economic construct is set up that will funnel warehouse money (i.e. Amazon) into a space exploration program then that is perfectly fine.

NASA has not been running a profitable operation over its lifetime either, yet has still been a success in many ways, especially in the early years.

If Bezos, whose income exceeds that of many nation states, wants to earn money on Amazon and spend it on Blue Origin, by all means he should do it. As long as the overall earnings are sufficient it will be a viable operation. Much better than spending all his money on trivial rich guy pursuits...

Blue has gotten off to a slow and rocky start but it can be turned around if new management implements a culture change.

Maybe they should hire some ex-SpaceX managers.

Having SpaceX and Blue Origin compete with each other is the dream scenario. In a time where there is a huge popular culture backlash against space exploration and the development of new space technology we need both companies to thrive. 

Offline seb21051

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #55 on: 12/31/2023 05:52 pm »
Seems its difficult for the company to go Celeriter (speedy) when its Owner, Leader and Funder is stuck at Graditem (gradual). JB talks a good game in the Lex Fridman Interview. He really does. About becoming quick and decisive. Is he spending every waking moment setting them on the right path? Is he selling all his toys and then pumping that money in BO? Is that the kind of commitment it would take?

In all seriousness, where is the real, driving, win-at-all-costs, do-or-die motivation evident in their actions?

What are the consequences if they do not change their culture? Will JB go bankrupt? Unlikely. He might close BO without consequence except to his pride. It all seems to be a personal pride play.

For spacex and EM, in the mid to late 2000s, it was literally succeed or go down the tubes. Is that true today for JB, as the driving force behind BO?

It has been suggested in this thread that they should get some spacexers to help them out, motivate them, drive them to exceed. They have hired quite a few ex spacexers. I guess you'd have to be specific about which SXers you need.

Big picture, I just don't see the hunger that drives them out of their funk yet. There were the court cases that they initiated, which to me indicated hurt pride, but the outcome of those were not sufficiently positive to fuel real change. They did get their HLS contract, but thats about it. Again, MHO.

I would be very glad to see them break out of their malaise. I think they can, but do they REALLY have the drive?
« Last Edit: 12/31/2023 06:09 pm by seb21051 »

Offline meekGee

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #56 on: 12/31/2023 06:57 pm »
Seems its difficult for the company to go Celeriter (speedy) when its Owner, Leader and Funder is stuck at Graditem (gradual). JB talks a good game in the Lex Fridman Interview. He really does. About becoming quick and decisive. Is he spending every waking moment setting them on the right path? Is he selling all his toys and then pumping that money in BO? Is that the kind of commitment it would take?

In all seriousness, where is the real, driving, win-at-all-costs, do-or-die motivation evident in their actions?

What are the consequences if they do not change their culture? Will JB go bankrupt? Unlikely. He might close BO without consequence except to his pride. It all seems to be a personal pride play.

For spacex and EM, in the mid to late 2000s, it was literally succeed or go down the tubes. Is that true today for JB, as the driving force behind BO?

It has been suggested in this thread that they should get some spacexers to help them out, motivate them, drive them to exceed. They have hired quite a few ex spacexers. I guess you'd have to be specific about which SXers you need.

Big picture, I just don't see the hunger that drives them out of their funk yet. There were the court cases that they initiated, which to me indicated hurt pride, but the outcome of those were not sufficiently positive to fuel real change. They did get their HLS contract, but thats about it. Again, MHO.

I would be very glad to see them break out of their malaise. I think they can, but do they REALLY have the drive?
They also need a goal and a viable plan. A goal that's more than just lip service to "futurists".

SpaceX has a goal: Colonize Mars.  Precisely defined, and can start within the decade.

Not all goals are created equal.

"Millions of people working and living in space" (presumably O'Neill cylinders) is centuries away even if SpaceX were aiming at it.  If it will ever be done at all.

There's no "Colonize the moon" since it doesn't make sense (too close to earth and too hostile), and "Lunar base" is not much different than ISS, but beached.

This may seem anecdotal to some, but I'd propose a simple test:  How many people working on Starship (or at SpaceX in general) are truly motivated by their goal, compared to how many people working at BO are truly motivated by BO's goal.

Musk imagines moving to Mars at his old age. Mr. Limp is probably thinking about Hawaii or the Caribbean islands.
« Last Edit: 01/01/2024 01:04 am by meekGee »
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Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #57 on: 01/01/2024 07:12 am »
NASA has not been running a profitable operation over its lifetime either, yet has still been a success in many ways, especially in the early years.
Since when has NASA ever had the mission to run a profitable operation?  They are a government agency, not a private business.  If Bezos doesn't want to turn a profit soon, he should just sell off Blue or shut it down.  Without a profit goal, or any urgency to improve cash flow,  there is no urgency to be efficient or goal oriented.

NASA has no urgency or incentive to be all that efficient and that is why SLS is ridiculously expensive and taking way too long to get flying.   It is why NASA should never be developing any manned spacecraft or launch vehicles ever again.  Research on enabling technology, yes.  Developing manned spacecraft on the whims of Congress, absolutely not.

SpaceX is constantly generating significant amounts of revenue.  Musk says StarLink is now cash flow positive.  He gets it and that is why he is moving a lot faster than Blue.

Profit and other rewards along with the threat of losing your business or job if you don't succeed is what motivates success.  It is basic to human nature.  Jeff Bezos needs to remind himself of this.

Offline seb21051

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #58 on: 01/01/2024 05:22 pm »
Anyone keeping score as regards the Limp pruning expected at BO?

Obviously Smith, and one or two other SVPs are already gone. But how about the overweight middle management crowd? Or is the middle management crowd really overweight? Could the VP ranks be the problem? How long will this take to shake out? Assuming one has to replace some of the pruned crop, since they would comprise the incompetent and competent-but-unliked-by-current senior-management.

Also, where do you get the real stars that you need to turn this boat around? Pretty sure they are generally in very high demand in their respective niches. Good thing Uncle Jeff has deep pockets.

Makes me think of the 30 year effort to make a winning team of the Lions. The number of Head Coaches they had to go through to find Campbell. Once he was in place things started to come together quite quickly, it seems. Is Limp the head coach that will make this happen?
« Last Edit: 01/01/2024 05:25 pm by seb21051 »

Offline gin455res

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - thread 5
« Reply #59 on: 01/01/2024 05:33 pm »
Would it be feasible to run a BE-4 initially on dimethyl ether and switch to methane mid flight to optimise isp but benefit from better density impulse at lift-off?

 

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