Author Topic: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat  (Read 12079 times)

Offline trimeta

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Re: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat
« Reply #20 on: 04/16/2023 02:13 am »
Jarvis and Clipper exist, if you want to see for yourself....

And by the way your whole experience sounds great to me, but I don't think you've been to Blue's Florida factory, so your opinion is not based on any facts.

Finally, I see a company growing immensely, with over 6000 employees focused primarily on the New Glenn, and with a very clear vision of how things should be done on fully reusable rockets.

Saying "Jarvis and Clipper exist" would hold a lot more weight if you didn't seem to also be saying "Starship/Super Heavy does not exist," despite it literally being on the pad ready to launch in less than 48 hours.

Sure, we haven't seen the inside of Blue Origin's secret factories. All we have are random background shots from their promotional videos, which (contrary to the popular "New Glenn is a paper rocket" narrative) do seem to suggest that Blue Origin has some flight hardware. But going from that to "Blue Origin has more hardware than SpaceX," when we can see SpaceX's many, many vehicles stacked up out in the open...frankly, I hope you're trolling. I hope you're laughing at how stupid we must all be, to think that someone could seriously entertain such ridiculous beliefs. Because the alternative is worse.

Offline Tywin

Before reusability, they need to do usability.
Before usability, they need ability.
Before ability, they need ility.

Oops one too many.  Undo.

I have never understood inheritance and guaranteed knowledge, if it were by inheritance the Shuttle would not have failed, yet it was less reliable and just as expensive as the Saturn V.

If it were by inheritance the Vulcan would be guaranteed reliability and capability like the Atlas and Deltas and yet it is NOT guaranteed anything.

Yet, it is GUARANTEED here, that the Starship will work perfectly the first time and will achieve 100% reusability within months. By past results of the Falcon 9, which has nothing to do with the SS, neither in materials, nor propellant, nor type of engine, nor size, nor anything.
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Offline Tywin

Jarvis and Clipper exist, if you want to see for yourself....

And by the way your whole experience sounds great to me, but I don't think you've been to Blue's Florida factory, so your opinion is not based on any facts.

Finally, I see a company growing immensely, with over 6000 employees focused primarily on the New Glenn, and with a very clear vision of how things should be done on fully reusable rockets.

Saying "Jarvis and Clipper exist" would hold a lot more weight if you didn't seem to also be saying "Starship/Super Heavy does not exist," despite it literally being on the pad ready to launch in less than 48 hours.

Sure, we haven't seen the inside of Blue Origin's secret factories. All we have are random background shots from their promotional videos, which (contrary to the popular "New Glenn is a paper rocket" narrative) do seem to suggest that Blue Origin has some flight hardware. But going from that to "Blue Origin has more hardware than SpaceX," when we can see SpaceX's many, many vehicles stacked up out in the open...frankly, I hope you're trolling. I hope you're laughing at how stupid we must all be, to think that someone could seriously entertain such ridiculous beliefs. Because the alternative is worse.

How many prototypes exist or existed of the SLS, before its first flight?

And yet it worked perfect the first time. I think Blue will do the same. And yet the SN-B...to me they are still prototypes.
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Offline soyuzu

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Re: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat
« Reply #23 on: 04/16/2023 02:29 am »
Blue origin begun testing rocket powered VTOL in 2005 and had patented ocean recovery in 2010. https://patents.google.com/patent/US8678321

So far BO is the one that had been leapfrogged.

Offline Tywin

For my part, I say we wait until next week before sending skeptics to the stake....

Wait a minute, Boeing built the amazing Jumbo 747, and yet incredibly, it is the same company that created the disastrous Max....

Some of us think that many geniuses of SpaceX are already gone, like Tom Mueller, Hans, etc...and that neither the Raptor, nor the SS, have followed any of the procedures, of what catapulted them with the Falcon family.
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Offline Tywin

Blue origin begun testing rocket powered VTOL in 2005 and had patented ocean recovery in 2010. https://patents.google.com/patent/US8678321

So far BO is the one that had been leapfrogged.

For anyone who counts economics as basic to any activity, you will know that Blue's budget until 2015 was small, and it only had 500 employees by that date.

Since 2015 is when the company was really relaunched in terms of staff and budget...
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Offline soyuzu

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Re: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat
« Reply #26 on: 04/16/2023 02:44 am »
Blue origin begun testing rocket powered VTOL in 2005 and had patented ocean recovery in 2010. https://patents.google.com/patent/US8678321

So far BO is the one that had been leapfrogged.

For anyone who counts economics as basic to any activity, you will know that Blue's budget until 2015 was small, and it only had 500 employees by that date.

Since 2015 is when the company was really relaunched in terms of staff and budget...

Then I think the effect of staff and budget is pretty well spoken, BO had debuted one operating vehicle and several experimental vehicles by 2015, and zero since then.

SLS had seen two core stages and five SRB thoroughly tested before Artemis 1, when New Glenn and Jarvis have that much hardware and test, I will start to take your assumption seriously.

Offline trimeta

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Re: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat
« Reply #27 on: 04/16/2023 02:45 am »
Jarvis and Clipper exist, if you want to see for yourself....

And by the way your whole experience sounds great to me, but I don't think you've been to Blue's Florida factory, so your opinion is not based on any facts.

Finally, I see a company growing immensely, with over 6000 employees focused primarily on the New Glenn, and with a very clear vision of how things should be done on fully reusable rockets.

Saying "Jarvis and Clipper exist" would hold a lot more weight if you didn't seem to also be saying "Starship/Super Heavy does not exist," despite it literally being on the pad ready to launch in less than 48 hours.

Sure, we haven't seen the inside of Blue Origin's secret factories. All we have are random background shots from their promotional videos, which (contrary to the popular "New Glenn is a paper rocket" narrative) do seem to suggest that Blue Origin has some flight hardware. But going from that to "Blue Origin has more hardware than SpaceX," when we can see SpaceX's many, many vehicles stacked up out in the open...frankly, I hope you're trolling. I hope you're laughing at how stupid we must all be, to think that someone could seriously entertain such ridiculous beliefs. Because the alternative is worse.

How many prototypes exist or existed of the SLS, before its first flight?

And yet it worked perfect the first time. I think Blue will do the same. And yet the SN-B...to me they are still prototypes.

So to be clear, the fact that SpaceX has tested prototypes of Starship makes you think it's less likely to succeed? "The more tests you run, clearly that means you don't already know everything, while if you run zero tests, that proves you already have perfect knowledge"? (And yes, SLS ran many tests, from moving structural test articles, to static fires, to burst tests of tanks. All of which were observed publicly.)

There's a valid case to be made that Blue Origin is farther ahead than they appear publicly, but saying "SpaceX's public progress is an 8, Blue Origin's public progress is maybe a 3, but there are some tantalizing hints that they're hiding their true capabilities for no reason whatsoever, so clearly the most natural and logical assumption in the absence of any evidence whatsoever is that Blue Origin is at a 10" is...well, it's Tywin.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat
« Reply #28 on: 04/16/2023 03:55 am »
 Remember a user named TripleSeven?
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat
« Reply #29 on: 04/16/2023 03:56 am »
Scheduling professional here. I've done new product introduction, and been a factory scheduling manager. So I have a pretty good ability to understand "momentum", and Blue Origin hasn't exhibited much of it.

SpaceX has lots of "momentum" with both Falcon 9/H and Starship, lots of skilled personnel that know how to create momentum, and a whole company that knows how to support momentum. We haven't seen such capabilities with Blue Origin yet.

As for the thread topic, SpaceX is getting ready for a major test of their fully reusable launch system, but does Blue Origin even have an interest in developing a fully reusable launch system? Because all we officially know about is New Glenn, which is only partially reusable.

So with all that we KNOW, why would ANYONE think that Blue Origin has a chance to leapfrog SpaceX on full reusability?  :o

Maybe we could revisit this topic again AFTER Blue Origin launches New Glenn, and AFTER they announce that they are planning to build a fully reusable launcher, but until then...  ;)
Jarvis and Clipper exist, if you want to see for yourself....

I looked on the Blue Origin website and couldn't find any mention of either of these. If these were officially supported programs, why are they not public? SpaceX built Starship out in a field, in plain view of the public, so it's not like reusable rockets have to be kept secret...  ;)

Quote
And by the way your whole experience sounds great to me, but I don't think you've been to Blue's Florida factory, so your opinion is not based on any facts.

Have you toured the Blue Origin factory? I toured the Atlas III factory way back when, and I've toured many other types of factories. It doesn't matter how big the building is, or how much fancy equipment they have, it only matters WHAT THEY DO.

Not sure you are understand that concept.

Quote
Finally, I see a company growing immensely, with over 6000 employees focused primarily on the New Glenn, and with a very clear vision of how things should be done on fully reusable rockets.

No, you THINK you see that, because unless you are saying you are a Blue Origin employee, with inside information, then as an outsider we can only judge Blue Origin by WHAT THEY HAVE DONE. And based on that they have only built the engines for New Glenn, and some production pathfinders for the New Glenn core, but nothing is ready to launch.

Whereas down in Boca Chica SpaceX has been building and flying pre-production hardware to validate that the results they get during testing will be the same as what happens when they fly.

When will New Glenn fly? More than a year from now? Maybe?

No rational person can think that Blue Origin is anywhere close to matching the tempo of progress SpaceX is doing...  ::)
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Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat
« Reply #30 on: 04/16/2023 03:59 am »
Jarvis and Clipper exist, if you want to see for yourself....

And by the way your whole experience sounds great to me, but I don't think you've been to Blue's Florida factory, so your opinion is not based on any facts.

Finally, I see a company growing immensely, with over 6000 employees focused primarily on the New Glenn, and with a very clear vision of how things should be done on fully reusable rockets.

Saying "Jarvis and Clipper exist" would hold a lot more weight if you didn't seem to also be saying "Starship/Super Heavy does not exist," despite it literally being on the pad ready to launch in less than 48 hours.

Sure, we haven't seen the inside of Blue Origin's secret factories. All we have are random background shots from their promotional videos, which (contrary to the popular "New Glenn is a paper rocket" narrative) do seem to suggest that Blue Origin has some flight hardware. But going from that to "Blue Origin has more hardware than SpaceX," when we can see SpaceX's many, many vehicles stacked up out in the open...frankly, I hope you're trolling. I hope you're laughing at how stupid we must all be, to think that someone could seriously entertain such ridiculous beliefs. Because the alternative is worse.

How many prototypes exist or existed of the SLS, before its first flight?

And yet it worked perfect the first time. I think Blue will do the same. And yet the SN-B...to me they are still prototypes.

So to be clear, the fact that SpaceX has tested prototypes of Starship makes you think it's less likely to succeed? "The more tests you run, clearly that means you don't already know everything, while if you run zero tests, that proves you already have perfect knowledge"? (And yes, SLS ran many tests, from moving structural test articles, to static fires, to burst tests of tanks. All of which were observed publicly.)
The Starship is a larger rocket than the New Glenn, and SpaceX had to do a WDR to make sure the propellant for both the Super Heavy booster and Starship orbital component don't leak and that the Raptor engines function properly. Also, the New Glenn's first stage has seven engines in contrast to the Starship's first stage using 33 Raptor engines.

Offline trimeta

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Re: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat
« Reply #31 on: 04/16/2023 04:14 am »
Jarvis and Clipper exist, if you want to see for yourself....

And by the way your whole experience sounds great to me, but I don't think you've been to Blue's Florida factory, so your opinion is not based on any facts.

Finally, I see a company growing immensely, with over 6000 employees focused primarily on the New Glenn, and with a very clear vision of how things should be done on fully reusable rockets.

Saying "Jarvis and Clipper exist" would hold a lot more weight if you didn't seem to also be saying "Starship/Super Heavy does not exist," despite it literally being on the pad ready to launch in less than 48 hours.

Sure, we haven't seen the inside of Blue Origin's secret factories. All we have are random background shots from their promotional videos, which (contrary to the popular "New Glenn is a paper rocket" narrative) do seem to suggest that Blue Origin has some flight hardware. But going from that to "Blue Origin has more hardware than SpaceX," when we can see SpaceX's many, many vehicles stacked up out in the open...frankly, I hope you're trolling. I hope you're laughing at how stupid we must all be, to think that someone could seriously entertain such ridiculous beliefs. Because the alternative is worse.

How many prototypes exist or existed of the SLS, before its first flight?

And yet it worked perfect the first time. I think Blue will do the same. And yet the SN-B...to me they are still prototypes.

So to be clear, the fact that SpaceX has tested prototypes of Starship makes you think it's less likely to succeed? "The more tests you run, clearly that means you don't already know everything, while if you run zero tests, that proves you already have perfect knowledge"? (And yes, SLS ran many tests, from moving structural test articles, to static fires, to burst tests of tanks. All of which were observed publicly.)
The Starship is a larger rocket than the New Glenn, and SpaceX had to do a WDR to make sure the propellant for both the Super Heavy booster and Starship orbital component don't leak and that the Raptor engines function properly. Also, the New Glenn's first stage has seven engines in contrast to the Starship's first stage using 33 Raptor engines.
SLS has four engines (all of which had actually been to space before), but also needed to do a WDR and static fire (and tank burst tests, which you didn't mention). And yes, SLS is also bigger than New Glenn. But everyone building smaller rockets also performs WDRs and static fires.

I guess Blue Origin just has so much experience launching orbital-class rockets, more than SpaceX, ULA, NASA, everyone combined, that they simply don't need to test things. (You know, I think Tywin might literally agree with that sentence.)

Offline kevinof

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Re: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat
« Reply #32 on: 04/16/2023 05:35 am »
Remember a user named TripleSeven?
Ha. You beat me to it.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat
« Reply #33 on: 04/16/2023 06:03 am »
Remember a user named TripleSeven?
Do you think that...?  No! It couldn't possibly be! 
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Offline Tywin

Blue origin begun testing rocket powered VTOL in 2005 and had patented ocean recovery in 2010. https://patents.google.com/patent/US8678321

So far BO is the one that had been leapfrogged.

For anyone who counts economics as basic to any activity, you will know that Blue's budget until 2015 was small, and it only had 500 employees by that date.

Since 2015 is when the company was really relaunched in terms of staff and budget...

Then I think the effect of staff and budget is pretty well spoken, BO had debuted one operating vehicle and several experimental vehicles by 2015, and zero since then.

SLS had seen two core stages and five SRB thoroughly tested before Artemis 1, when New Glenn and Jarvis have that much hardware and test, I will start to take your assumption seriously.

2024 will show us...
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Offline Tywin

Jarvis and Clipper exist, if you want to see for yourself....

And by the way your whole experience sounds great to me, but I don't think you've been to Blue's Florida factory, so your opinion is not based on any facts.

Finally, I see a company growing immensely, with over 6000 employees focused primarily on the New Glenn, and with a very clear vision of how things should be done on fully reusable rockets.

Saying "Jarvis and Clipper exist" would hold a lot more weight if you didn't seem to also be saying "Starship/Super Heavy does not exist," despite it literally being on the pad ready to launch in less than 48 hours.

Sure, we haven't seen the inside of Blue Origin's secret factories. All we have are random background shots from their promotional videos, which (contrary to the popular "New Glenn is a paper rocket" narrative) do seem to suggest that Blue Origin has some flight hardware. But going from that to "Blue Origin has more hardware than SpaceX," when we can see SpaceX's many, many vehicles stacked up out in the open...frankly, I hope you're trolling. I hope you're laughing at how stupid we must all be, to think that someone could seriously entertain such ridiculous beliefs. Because the alternative is worse.

How many prototypes exist or existed of the SLS, before its first flight?

And yet it worked perfect the first time. I think Blue will do the same. And yet the SN-B...to me they are still prototypes.

So to be clear, the fact that SpaceX has tested prototypes of Starship makes you think it's less likely to succeed? "The more tests you run, clearly that means you don't already know everything, while if you run zero tests, that proves you already have perfect knowledge"? (And yes, SLS ran many tests, from moving structural test articles, to static fires, to burst tests of tanks. All of which were observed publicly.)

There's a valid case to be made that Blue Origin is farther ahead than they appear publicly, but saying "SpaceX's public progress is an 8, Blue Origin's public progress is maybe a 3, but there are some tantalizing hints that they're hiding their true capabilities for no reason whatsoever, so clearly the most natural and logical assumption in the absence of any evidence whatsoever is that Blue Origin is at a 10" is...well, it's Tywin.

I don't say that, I say wait and see....

Unlike you, I don't believe in impossibilities, and I do believe in probabilities, and many assume guaranteed that Starship cannot be surpassed in its development of 100% reusable, however I am skeptical and say that although I don't know the exact number, certainly Blue has more than a 0% chance of making it...
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Offline Tywin

Scheduling professional here. I've done new product introduction, and been a factory scheduling manager. So I have a pretty good ability to understand "momentum", and Blue Origin hasn't exhibited much of it.

SpaceX has lots of "momentum" with both Falcon 9/H and Starship, lots of skilled personnel that know how to create momentum, and a whole company that knows how to support momentum. We haven't seen such capabilities with Blue Origin yet.

As for the thread topic, SpaceX is getting ready for a major test of their fully reusable launch system, but does Blue Origin even have an interest in developing a fully reusable launch system? Because all we officially know about is New Glenn, which is only partially reusable.

So with all that we KNOW, why would ANYONE think that Blue Origin has a chance to leapfrog SpaceX on full reusability?  :o

Maybe we could revisit this topic again AFTER Blue Origin launches New Glenn, and AFTER they announce that they are planning to build a fully reusable launcher, but until then...  ;)
Jarvis and Clipper exist, if you want to see for yourself....

I looked on the Blue Origin website and couldn't find any mention of either of these. If these were officially supported programs, why are they not public? SpaceX built Starship out in a field, in plain view of the public, so it's not like reusable rockets have to be kept secret...  ;)

Quote
And by the way your whole experience sounds great to me, but I don't think you've been to Blue's Florida factory, so your opinion is not based on any facts.

Have you toured the Blue Origin factory? I toured the Atlas III factory way back when, and I've toured many other types of factories. It doesn't matter how big the building is, or how much fancy equipment they have, it only matters WHAT THEY DO.

Not sure you are understand that concept.

Quote
Finally, I see a company growing immensely, with over 6000 employees focused primarily on the New Glenn, and with a very clear vision of how things should be done on fully reusable rockets.

No, you THINK you see that, because unless you are saying you are a Blue Origin employee, with inside information, then as an outsider we can only judge Blue Origin by WHAT THEY HAVE DONE. And based on that they have only built the engines for New Glenn, and some production pathfinders for the New Glenn core, but nothing is ready to launch.

Whereas down in Boca Chica SpaceX has been building and flying pre-production hardware to validate that the results they get during testing will be the same as what happens when they fly.

When will New Glenn fly? More than a year from now? Maybe?

No rational person can think that Blue Origin is anywhere close to matching the tempo of progress SpaceX is doing...  ::)


In their job offers, they do not hide the name of the Jarvis or Clipper project...

Unfortunately I have not yet been able to take a tour of the Blue factory, but I have worked in factories before, and warehouses of Amazon, and I know how he deals with them, uncle Bezos...

The Starship has not yet made Mach 3 flights, nor suborbital flights, I think you are overestimating the 10 km jump...
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The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline Tywin

Jarvis and Clipper exist, if you want to see for yourself....

And by the way your whole experience sounds great to me, but I don't think you've been to Blue's Florida factory, so your opinion is not based on any facts.

Finally, I see a company growing immensely, with over 6000 employees focused primarily on the New Glenn, and with a very clear vision of how things should be done on fully reusable rockets.

Saying "Jarvis and Clipper exist" would hold a lot more weight if you didn't seem to also be saying "Starship/Super Heavy does not exist," despite it literally being on the pad ready to launch in less than 48 hours.

Sure, we haven't seen the inside of Blue Origin's secret factories. All we have are random background shots from their promotional videos, which (contrary to the popular "New Glenn is a paper rocket" narrative) do seem to suggest that Blue Origin has some flight hardware. But going from that to "Blue Origin has more hardware than SpaceX," when we can see SpaceX's many, many vehicles stacked up out in the open...frankly, I hope you're trolling. I hope you're laughing at how stupid we must all be, to think that someone could seriously entertain such ridiculous beliefs. Because the alternative is worse.

How many prototypes exist or existed of the SLS, before its first flight?

And yet it worked perfect the first time. I think Blue will do the same. And yet the SN-B...to me they are still prototypes.

So to be clear, the fact that SpaceX has tested prototypes of Starship makes you think it's less likely to succeed? "The more tests you run, clearly that means you don't already know everything, while if you run zero tests, that proves you already have perfect knowledge"? (And yes, SLS ran many tests, from moving structural test articles, to static fires, to burst tests of tanks. All of which were observed publicly.)
The Starship is a larger rocket than the New Glenn, and SpaceX had to do a WDR to make sure the propellant for both the Super Heavy booster and Starship orbital component don't leak and that the Raptor engines function properly. Also, the New Glenn's first stage has seven engines in contrast to the Starship's first stage using 33 Raptor engines.

Thanks, exactly...
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Offline Tywin

By the way if all goes well by the time the New Glenn flies, the BE-4s will be well tested on several Vulcan flights before, that's another safety point in having a successful first flight...
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Offline soyuzu

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Re: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat
« Reply #39 on: 04/16/2023 10:35 am »
Blue origin begun testing rocket powered VTOL in 2005 and had patented ocean recovery in 2010. https://patents.google.com/patent/US8678321

So far BO is the one that had been leapfrogged.

For anyone who counts economics as basic to any activity, you will know that Blue's budget until 2015 was small, and it only had 500 employees by that date.

Since 2015 is when the company was really relaunched in terms of staff and budget...

Then I think the effect of staff and budget is pretty well spoken, BO had debuted one operating vehicle and several experimental vehicles by 2015, and zero since then.

SLS had seen two core stages and five SRB thoroughly tested before Artemis 1, when New Glenn and Jarvis have that much hardware and test, I will start to take your assumption seriously.

2024 will show us...

Yes, then you can wait for 2024(or late 2023 if we are lucky), when New Glenn first stage completes WDR before opening this “threat”

Quote
Unlike you, I don't believe in impossibilities, and I do believe in probabilities, and many assume guaranteed that Starship cannot be surpassed in its development of 100% reusable, however I am skeptical and say that although I don't know the exact number, certainly Blue has more than a 0% chance of making it...

Similarly, wait for the probability become bigger before opening the thread. The only thing you can prove is it is greater than zero, but not many will be interested if the probability is effectively infinitely close to zero.

 

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