Nonetheless, unless they're going to completely change the plan from "launcher puts the payload into elliptical HEO, payload performs TMI burn on its own" to "launcher performs overpowered TMI burn, payload is just along for the ride," it doesn't matter how powerful the launcher is: it can't help overcome suboptimal launch timing, since it isn't contributing to the portion of the mission which cares about timing. And thus missing the appointed launch date isn't something New Glenn can compensate for just because it's much, much larger than this payload needs.
What are you talking about?Interplanetary transfer trajectories are defined with "porkchop plots" which have contrours for total C3 (velocity beyond escape velocity squared) as a function of departure and arrival dates. (The contrours take the approximate shape of pork chops, with a concave side and a big convex side.) Going away from the dates for the minimum, the values rise steeply, and C3 is in energy terms, so it's really hard to climb the walls.But the plan is to launch into a 1.6 day orbit. I am sure someone here can calculate the difference from escape velocity, (I don't have the extra half hour to do so.) but given that NG should have signicant mass capacity beyond C3=0 (minimum escape) the amount of capacity being used is fixed and a lot less. The great advatage of using a vastly oversized rocket is locked out. So it can't be used to expand the launch window. They build a 4X rocket and sell it for 1/4 the nominal price, then put on it the one requirement they stand the least chance of meeting: launch schedule certainty.And it's not like a mission to the Moon, for which launch opportunities generally happen every month.And the PI is not insane to be without a backup. He has no alternative. The program is an orphan, and a poor orphan at that. It can't wait for the (energy and reliability) rich parents to adopt it. If NG doesn't make it, it will go back into storage and beg for extension funding.PS What's wih the "Vulcan" in the thread title?
Quote from: Comga on 04/14/2023 04:56 amWhat are you talking about?Interplanetary transfer trajectories are defined with "porkchop plots" which have contrours for total C3 (velocity beyond escape velocity squared) as a function of departure and arrival dates. (The contrours take the approximate shape of pork chops, with a concave side and a big convex side.) Going away from the dates for the minimum, the values rise steeply, and C3 is in energy terms, so it's really hard to climb the walls.But the plan is to launch into a 1.6 day Earth orbit. I am sure someone here can calculate the difference from escape velocity, (I don't have the extra half hour to do so.) but given that NG should have signicant mass capacity beyond C3=0 (minimum escape) the amount of capacity being used is fixed and a lot less. The great advatage of using a vastly oversized rocket is locked out. So it can't be used to expand the launch window. They build a 4X rocket and sell it for 1/4 the nominal price, then put on it the one requirement they stand the least chance of meeting: launch schedule certainty.And it's not like a mission to the Moon, for which launch opportunities generally happen every month.And the PI is not insane to be without a backup. He has no alternative. The program is an orphan, and a poor orphan at that. It can't wait for the (energy and reliability) rich parents to adopt it. If NG doesn't make it, it will go back into storage and beg for extension funding.PS What's wih the "Vulcan" in the thread title? By my calculations the Escapade satellites have 3-3.2km/s of DV.
What are you talking about?Interplanetary transfer trajectories are defined with "porkchop plots" which have contrours for total C3 (velocity beyond escape velocity squared) as a function of departure and arrival dates. (The contrours take the approximate shape of pork chops, with a concave side and a big convex side.) Going away from the dates for the minimum, the values rise steeply, and C3 is in energy terms, so it's really hard to climb the walls.But the plan is to launch into a 1.6 day Earth orbit. I am sure someone here can calculate the difference from escape velocity, (I don't have the extra half hour to do so.) but given that NG should have signicant mass capacity beyond C3=0 (minimum escape) the amount of capacity being used is fixed and a lot less. The great advatage of using a vastly oversized rocket is locked out. So it can't be used to expand the launch window. They build a 4X rocket and sell it for 1/4 the nominal price, then put on it the one requirement they stand the least chance of meeting: launch schedule certainty.And it's not like a mission to the Moon, for which launch opportunities generally happen every month.And the PI is not insane to be without a backup. He has no alternative. The program is an orphan, and a poor orphan at that. It can't wait for the (energy and reliability) rich parents to adopt it. If NG doesn't make it, it will go back into storage and beg for extension funding.PS What's wih the "Vulcan" in the thread title?
Can someone calculate the deficit of the 1.6 day Earth orbit to C3=0?What’s the C3 for the optimum trajectory, TMI & MOI?Any estimate on how much schedule leeway that 3-3.2 km/sec (9.0-10.2 km^2/sec^2) buys ESCAPADE?
New Glenn rocket, which is not expected to launch until late next year at the earliest.
https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/10/jeff-bezos-shows-off-new-moon-lander-design-for-nasa/ by Stephen Clarke is mostly about other things but mentions:QuoteNew Glenn rocket, which is not expected to launch until late next year at the earliest.It's unclear what "late next year" means and what the latest possible launch date for ESCAPADE is. But if I were part of ESCAPADE I would definitely be looking for a backup plan in case New Glenn isn't ready in time.
$20M maiden launch pricing
Quote from: Comga on 10/28/2023 11:18 pm$20M maiden launch pricingWhat's your source for ESCAPADE being New Glenn's maiden launch?
If we're already debating whether New Glenn's maiden launch will be early enough to hit the ESCAPADE launch window, it seems even less likely that New Glenn will manage to have two or more launches by the time of said launch window.
True. But I don't think we know enough to rule out ESCAPADE launching on the second flight and within its window. If the critical path for the first flight is construction of something reusable such as the pad, ground infrastructure, booster, software, or procedures then the second flight could happen quickly after the first, especially if ESCAPADE lets Blue do less thorough inspections and data review than one would do if there was more time.
It will be very problematic that Neutron would be ready by 2026, but New Glenn most likely will be, and have at least two or three flights by then. There would be no reason to switch launchers, and ESCAPADE is is considered a high-risk mission as it stands.
Quote from: Robert_the_Doll on 10/29/2023 08:32 pmIt will be very problematic that Neutron would be ready by 2026, but New Glenn most likely will be, and have at least two or three flights by then. There would be no reason to switch launchers, and ESCAPADE is is considered a high-risk mission as it stands.NG is an unknown. Less than two months ago, senior BO execs were predicting flights this year.
Quote from: meekGee on 10/29/2023 09:08 pmQuote from: Robert_the_Doll on 10/29/2023 08:32 pmIt will be very problematic that Neutron would be ready by 2026, but New Glenn most likely will be, and have at least two or three flights by then. There would be no reason to switch launchers, and ESCAPADE is is considered a high-risk mission as it stands.NG is an unknown. Less than two months ago, senior BO execs were predicting flights this year.That would be incorrect. They were predicting a launch in 2024. Sources place the goal for July of next year, and were hoping to get complete hardware to LC-36 for the start of testing, culminating static test firings.
Bradley Smith, director of NASA's Launch Services Program, says the agency's Mars-bound ESCAPADE smallsats will fly on an "incredibly ambitious first launch for (Blue Origin's) New Glenn" rocket "around this time next year."
QuoteBradley Smith, director of NASA's Launch Services Program, says the agency's Mars-bound ESCAPADE smallsats will fly on an "incredibly ambitious first launch for (Blue Origin's) New Glenn" rocket "around this time next year."https://twitter.com/StephenClark1/status/1726684109593010450
Side-note, if this is confirmation that ESCAPADE will launch on the first flight of a heavy-lift vehicle from a company with zero heritage of orbital rocketry, that's more reason to think that the $20M price tag probably isn't representative of what Blue Origin hopes to charge for New Glenn launches in general.
At a Nov. 20 meeting of the NASA Advisory Council’s human exploration and operations committee, Bradley Smith, director of NASA’s Launch Services Office, said he was “incredibly excited” about the ESCAPADE launch, which he said was scheduled for about one year. His charts, though, and past presentations, listed an August 2024 launch for ESCAPADE.
The company has not provided recent updates about progress towards a first launch of the rocket, although Jarrett Jones, senior vice president for New Glenn at Blue Origin, said at World Satellite Business Week in September that the first flight vehicle would arrive at a Florida integration facility by the end of the year, with the company planning “multiple” launches of New Glenn in 2024.