Author Topic: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5  (Read 46414 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #20 on: 04/14/2023 03:03 pm »
Crosspost:

twitter.com/free_space/status/1646883653413224449

Quote
Space Force plans to award sole-source study contract to on-ramp Blue Origin for National Security Space Launch Phase 3 contract -- Lane 2 (which, if for New Glenn, certainly indicates Lane 2 not just for small satellite launchers ). SLS next?   

https://sam.gov/opp/bc16bbbd24074a7b9d715b341a0aa567/view

https://twitter.com/free_space/status/1646889447839916033

Quote
Oops -- got my lanes mixed up . lane 2 for full-range of NSSL missions , not small sat launchers .

Offline Tywin

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #21 on: 04/14/2023 03:17 pm »
Boom!!! 8)
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline trimeta

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #22 on: 04/14/2023 07:44 pm »
Boom!!! 8)
Adding New Glenn as a potential competitor for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 was always going to happen, it's hardly a "boom." Now, if it actually wins one of the two Lane 2 slots, that would be quite a "boom." But there's no particular reason to think that's likely.

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #23 on: 04/14/2023 10:10 pm »
Boom!!! 8)
Adding New Glenn as a potential competitor for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 was always going to happen, it's hardly a "boom." Now, if it actually wins one of the two Lane 2 slots, that would be quite a "boom." But there's no particular reason to think that's likely.
https://spacenews.com/the-next-battle-for-u-s-military-launch-contracts-is-about-to-begin/

There is no way Blue is going be in Lane 2, they don't flight heritage to compete with ULA of SpaceX for these high value missions. Blue just have to fight it out with RL Neutron, Firefly/NG MLV and Relativity Terran R for lower cost Lane 1 missions.
ULA and SpaceX can still bid for Lane 1 contracts but DoD would prefer to give these to the new entrants.
« Last Edit: 04/14/2023 10:18 pm by TrevorMonty »

Offline trimeta

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #24 on: 04/14/2023 10:27 pm »
Boom!!! 8)
Adding New Glenn as a potential competitor for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 was always going to happen, it's hardly a "boom." Now, if it actually wins one of the two Lane 2 slots, that would be quite a "boom." But there's no particular reason to think that's likely.
https://spacenews.com/the-next-battle-for-u-s-military-launch-contracts-is-about-to-begin/

There is no way Blue is going be in Lane 2, they don't flight heritage to compete with ULA of SpaceX for these high value missions. Blue just have to fight it out with RL Neutron, Firefly/NG MLV and Relativity Terran R for lower cost Lane 1 missions.
ULA and SpaceX can still bid for Lane 1 contracts but DoD would prefer to give these to the new entrants.
I tend to agree, but as this study contract demonstrates, Blue Origin wants to at least pretend like they have a shot at ousting one of ULA or SpaceX from Lane 2.

Offline matthewkantar

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #25 on: 04/15/2023 02:19 am »
Boom!!! 8)
Adding New Glenn as a potential competitor for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 was always going to happen, it's hardly a "boom." Now, if it actually wins one of the two Lane 2 slots, that would be quite a "boom." But there's no particular reason to think that's likely.
https://spacenews.com/the-next-battle-for-u-s-military-launch-contracts-is-about-to-begin/

There is no way Blue is going be in Lane 2, they don't flight heritage to compete with ULA of SpaceX for these high value missions. Blue just have to fight it out with RL Neutron, Firefly/NG MLV and Relativity Terran R for lower cost Lane 1 missions.
ULA and SpaceX can still bid for Lane 1 contracts but DoD would prefer to give these to the new entrants.

What heritage do you speak of? Most of the rocket has never flown before. First stage propulsion is supplied by a company that has never orbited anything at all ever. Upper stage propulsion and a tank that just kersploded on a test stand? Heritage my butt.

Offline Jim

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #26 on: 04/15/2023 02:35 am »
[
What heritage do you speak of? Most of the rocket has never flown before. First stage propulsion is supplied by a company that has never orbited anything at all ever. Upper stage propulsion and a tank that just kersploded on a test stand? Heritage my butt.

Stop it

Offline deadman1204

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #27 on: 04/16/2023 05:12 pm »
I don't think Blue (or relativity or electron or anyone else) really has a shot at lane 2 until NSSL 4.

NG or any other new rocket will have VERY little flight heritage (or team experience). Numbers on paper just won't compare to the flight history of the 2 experienced companies. Yes Vulcan is "new", but the first stage is based off of alot existing rockets, and the 2nd stage (arguably more important)  is just the next iteration. Plus ULA has decades of flight and military experience. Also, company/flight team experience is just as valuable as hardware experience. Operating and understanding the rocket is important.

I think Blue will just need more launches and experience to have a shot at dislodging ULA or SpaceX.
« Last Edit: 04/16/2023 05:15 pm by deadman1204 »

Offline trimeta

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #28 on: 04/16/2023 06:19 pm »
I don't think Blue (or relativity or electron or anyone else) really has a shot at lane 2 until NSSL 4.
FWIW, I'm pretty sure Rocket Lab lobbied hard for the creation of Lane 1 explicitly because they knew they've got no shot at participating in Lane 2. At least they're keeping their expectations reasonable...

As for Relativity, their strangely-low GTO performance, along with Tim Ellis' caginess when talking with Eric Berger, suggests they're not seriously going for Lane 2 at this time either. Maybe they'll explore the onramp procedure later, but as you say probably somewhere around NSSL 4.

I believe Firefly and ABL were also mentioned as Lane 1 contenders, but we know what Firefly's entrant will look like, and it's Neutron-sized, thus too small for Lane 2. ABL is the big wildcard, but I wouldn't expect them to have a heavy-lift vehicle until NSSL 4 either.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #29 on: 04/16/2023 11:48 pm »
I don't think Blue (or relativity or electron or anyone else) really has a shot at lane 2 until NSSL 4.
<snip>
Northrop Grumman could always resurrected some version of the "Stick" with some combination of Castor 120 solid motors and a liquid upper stage.

P.S. I will leave now.  :P

Offline BoTheBearSpace

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #30 on: 04/17/2023 02:21 pm »
When will NS-24 be?

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Offline GWH

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #32 on: 05/01/2023 04:53 am »
According to this reddit user Blue Origin is now at over 10,000 employees:

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1344wdb/comment/jie71jn/

Online woods170

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #33 on: 05/01/2023 08:56 am »
According to this reddit user Blue Origin is now at over 10,000 employees:

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1344wdb/comment/jie71jn/

And still NOT launching to orbit.

Offline jdon759

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #34 on: 05/01/2023 11:58 am »
According to this reddit user Blue Origin is now at over 10,000 employees:

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1344wdb/comment/jie71jn/

And still NOT launching to orbit.

Walmart has 2.3 million employees, and it hasn't even sent anything to space, let alone orbit. Vaastly less successful than Blue.

Offline kevinof

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #35 on: 05/01/2023 12:48 pm »
Seriously? What a useless, content-free comment.

Can we please try and do better?


According to this reddit user Blue Origin is now at over 10,000 employees:

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1344wdb/comment/jie71jn/

And still NOT launching to orbit.

Walmart has 2.3 million employees, and it hasn't even sent anything to space, let alone orbit. Vaastly less successful than Blue.

Offline Greg Hullender

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #36 on: 05/01/2023 01:02 pm »
Looking at it optimistically, I'd say it implies that Space Force has information that suggests New Glenn is likely to launch soon. That would be nice. It's been way too long.

Offline GWH

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #37 on: 05/01/2023 03:12 pm »
As a comparison, that other big Space company with an X in their name was reportedly 9500 people in 2021.

At that time they had:
- 3 active launch sites, on 2 coasts, plus a 3rd test launch site
- 30 Falcon 9 flights
- 0 Falcon Heavy flights
- Crew Dragon with 3 flights that year
- Cargo Dragon 2 with 3 flights that year
- Starship SN 15 test flight
- Starbase construction ramping up
- Starlink in full build up, entered commercial service that year

The number of employees Blue has and the comparison here kind of makes my head spin. Mostly because of what this says of their expenses vs what we currently know of their revenue.

On the one hand, Blue is obviously doing a ramp up to completing New Glenn, so its a fair expectation that this is resource intensive. They are also in full production of BE-4 now, as well as hopefully BE-3U, requiring a decent sized workforce. BE-4 is paid work for Vulcan at least.

Blue Moon I could see being a cargo dragon 1 equivalent cost program, if Blue is truly invested. No major outside funding for that.

Orbital Reef is probably equivalent to Crew Dragon if not larger, but currently in its infancy and receiving a relatively small amount of NASA funding.

New Shepard with an operational cadence of about 12 per year ideally.

Blue ring and other programs like Blue Alchemist.

As for resources to get New Glenn up and running... yes... but they've been working on it forever. This isn't a new program. If they need to dump so much now into getting it "moving along" that says a lot of negative things (in my mind) about their resource utilization to date.

Of course there is always they alternative theory that Blue has "countless big things" going on behind closed doors that they don't want to share. I'm skeptical there.
« Last Edit: 05/01/2023 03:22 pm by GWH »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #38 on: 05/01/2023 03:34 pm »
Falcon Heavy first flew in 2018
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Offline Robert_the_Doll

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