Poll

Can the New Glenn launch more times than the Falcon 9 in the first 10 years of live?

Yes
3 (5%)
No
52 (86.7%)
Maybe
5 (8.3%)

Total Members Voted: 60


Author Topic: Can the New Glenn launch more times than the Falcon 9 in the first 10 years?  (Read 4606 times)

Offline Tywin

Well, if I count correctly, in the first 10 years of the Falcon 9's life it was launched 86 times, can the New Glenn in its first 10 years be launched more times?
« Last Edit: 01/20/2023 08:50 am by Tywin »
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Offline daedalus1

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No.
Blue is slow, whatever it does.

Offline kevinof

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So between 8 and 10 times per year? for 10 years or one every 5-6 weeks? Nope. Don't believe they will ever reach that cadence.

Offline spacenut

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ISS will not be operational by the time New Glenn gets to launching.  SpaceX got supply and crew contracts with NASA as well as Air Force, now Space Force launches.  Vulcan will also be flying soon and has gotten contracts.  The most New Glenn has going is their own satellite launches, and maybe, if NASA contracts some money, the private space station.  Also, New Glenn's capability is similar to Falcon Heavy, which does not fly often.  Another thing is Starship/Superheavy will be flying, getting contracts, etc.  So no New Glenn is late to the game and probably will not fly often, unless the Artemis program is extended and/or expanded. 

Offline trimeta

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Project Kuiper substantially fewer satellites than Starlink? And New Glenn should in theory be able to carry more satellites per launch. So far fewer launches overall.

Unless...are you specifically asking "can New Glenn launch more in its first ten years than Falcon 9 did with its first ten years (e.g., 2010-2020)"? That's marginally more reasonable, the SpaceX steamroller didn't really kick in until 2017. And arguably Kuiper will play a bigger role in New Glenn's early launches than Starlink played in early Falcon 9 launches.

Offline DanClemmensen

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F9 launched 77 times in 2010-2019 . Is this the period in question?  FH launched 3 times. Do these count or not?

If instead of "F9" you mean "F9 block 5", the number changes a lot. First alunch was in 2018, and there have been about 141 launches since.

F9's huge advantage now is their captive priority-2 customer: Starlink. That allows them to fill every launch slot that was not sold to a primary (i.e., paying) customer, but this did not start until 2019, so only three of the 77 F9 launches were Starlink.

New Glenn will also have a captive priority-2 customer: Kuiper. I voted "No" for two reasons. First, I don't think New Glenn will attract many primary customers, because I think Starship will be a lot cheaper. Second, I don't think Kuiper will expand past its initial 3276 satellites, about half of which will launch on Atlas V, Vulcan, and Arianspace prior to availability of New Glenn. Even at the small number of 50 Kuipers per launch, that's only 33 Kuiper launches.

Offline Tywin

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Project Kuiper substantially fewer satellites than Starlink? And New Glenn should in theory be able to carry more satellites per launch. So far fewer launches overall.

Unless...are you specifically asking "can New Glenn launch more in its first ten years than Falcon 9 did with its first ten years (e.g., 2010-2020)"? That's marginally more reasonable, the SpaceX steamroller didn't really kick in until 2017. And arguably Kuiper will play a bigger role in New Glenn's early launches than Starlink played in early Falcon 9 launches.

Exactly the first 10 years of both rockets...
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Offline Tywin

F9 launched 77 times in 2010-2019 . Is this the period in question?  FH launched 3 times. Do these count or not?

If instead of "F9" you mean "F9 block 5", the number changes a lot. First alunch was in 2018, and there have been about 141 launches since.

F9's huge advantage now is their captive priority-2 customer: Starlink. That allows them to fill every launch slot that was not sold to a primary (i.e., paying) customer, but this did not start until 2019, so only three of the 77 F9 launches were Starlink.

New Glenn will also have a captive priority-2 customer: Kuiper. I voted "No" for two reasons. First, I don't think New Glenn will attract many primary customers, because I think Starship will be a lot cheaper. Second, I don't think Kuiper will expand past its initial 3276 satellites, about half of which will launch on Atlas V, Vulcan, and Arianspace prior to availability of New Glenn. Even at the small number of 50 Kuipers per launch, that's only 33 Kuiper launches.


Well, I read that Kuiper already fille for 7600 satellites with the FCC in a second fase...
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Offline Comga

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Look at the graph in this post.
Out of six “western” rockets, the Falcon 9 has by far the greatest launch rate record.
This poll asks if people believe that Blue Origin “gradiatum fetociter”, will be more than twice as fast out of the gate as ULA and Japan and ESA. “Faster than SpaceX” in the first ten years might be greater than the SUM of all three of those.

Don’t be absurd.
I’d make a 3:1 bet against Blue, to the benefit of the NSF Student Scholarship Fund, but I doubt we will be around or interested in Blue in ten years.  That’s a long time.
« Last Edit: 01/20/2023 04:25 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline FishInferno

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No.

Blue Origin, despite being a "new space" company, has essentially modeled its business after old space companies. I see no reason to assume that will change in the coming years.

I find Blue Origin to be a sad story. I was very excited when they announced New Glenn and thought there might finally be a true competitor to SpaceX. Now it looks like Relativity or Rocket Lab will fill that role. I want so badly to be inspired by BO's vision, but they haven't really done much to realize it.
« Last Edit: 01/20/2023 04:20 pm by FishInferno »
Comparing SpaceX and SLS is like comparing paying people to plant fruit trees with merely digging holes and filling them.  - Robotbeat

Offline DanClemmensen

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F9 launched 77 times in 2010-2019 . Is this the period in question?  FH launched 3 times. Do these count or not?

If instead of "F9" you mean "F9 block 5", the number changes a lot. First alunch was in 2018, and there have been about 141 launches since.

F9's huge advantage now is their captive priority-2 customer: Starlink. That allows them to fill every launch slot that was not sold to a primary (i.e., paying) customer, but this did not start until 2019, so only three of the 77 F9 launches were Starlink.

New Glenn will also have a captive priority-2 customer: Kuiper. I voted "No" for two reasons. First, I don't think New Glenn will attract many primary customers, because I think Starship will be a lot cheaper. Second, I don't think Kuiper will expand past its initial 3276 satellites, about half of which will launch on Atlas V, Vulcan, and Arianspace prior to availability of New Glenn. Even at the small number of 50 Kuipers per launch, that's only 33 Kuiper launches.
Well, I read that Kuiper already fille for 7600 satellites with the FCC in a second fase...
And the government of Rwanda filed with ITU for a constellation of 375,000 satellites. An expansion of Kuiper may be slightly more realistic, but in my opinion not much.

I base this on my personal opinion that Starlink will suck up all of the consumer customers based on its first-mover advantage. Kuiper will be left primarily with super-high-bandwidth datacenter and backbone interconnections for Amazon and possibly others. There is no reason you should agree with my personal opinion.

Offline Vahe231991

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I doubt that the New Glenn will launch more times than the Falcon 9 in the first ten years.

Offline deltaV

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I'm assuming that the 10 years starts at the first liftoff. New Glenn will most likely be the cheapest American launcher per kilogram of payload that's made by someone other than SpaceX so New Glenn could easily get a lot of business from customers that are avoiding SpaceX, e.g. because they don't want a launch monopoly or they compete with Starlink. But Blue may continue stumbling or the demand for non-SpaceX launches may not be quite enough to reach 86 launches. I answered "maybe".

Offline Robert_the_Doll

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Well, if I count correctly, in the first 10 years of the Falcon 9's life it was launched 86 times, can the New Glenn in its first 10 years be launched more times?

To this I will simply ask "Does it need to?"

Offline freddo411

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These poorly worded, wildly speculative polls are annoying me.

"Can the New Glenn launch more times than the Falcon 9 in the first 10 years of live?"

"Can"?   ... well of course this answer is yes, depends on x,y and z.  No law of physics preventing that from happening.   Should be "will"

Typo in the last word:  live should be life. ..  Or, better yet, the question should make clear the comparison between the first 10 years of Falcon and the first 10 years of NG.


Please take some time to compose a thoughtful, well worded question.


Offline whitelancer64

*snip*
The most New Glenn has going is their own satellite launches, and maybe, if NASA contracts some money, the private space station.
*snip*

New Glenn has 5 other customers with launch contracts: Eutelsat, muSpace, OneWeb (5 launches), SKY Perfect JSAT, and Telesat (multiple launches).
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Tywin

These poorly worded, wildly speculative polls are annoying me.

"Can the New Glenn launch more times than the Falcon 9 in the first 10 years of live?"

"Can"?   ... well of course this answer is yes, depends on x,y and z.  No law of physics preventing that from happening.   Should be "will"

Typo in the last word:  live should be life. ..  Or, better yet, the question should make clear the comparison between the first 10 years of Falcon and the first 10 years of NG.


Please take some time to compose a thoughtful, well worded question.


Sorry Freddo, I try my best, but English is not my native language...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

 

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