Author Topic: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 4  (Read 125366 times)

Offline edzieba

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #380 on: 02/02/2023 06:13 pm »
How does the Airforce funding even even play into "self-funded"? They are burning at least $1 billion in no-questions-asked money a year while making basically zero revenue - that alone is the antithesis of self-funding or even sane company management.
Yep, it's unsustainable.
How is now any different than the last 22 years? Jeff Bezos is not running out of money.  ::)
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Not getting any NSSL launches and not winning the HLS award hurt Blue Origin very badly.
The word "hurt" is incorrect here, since HLS was not really related to New Glenn, and both are just POTENTIAL revenue streams that could come back again in the future.
*snip*
How did Jeff Bezos make that money? It certainly wasn't by spending a billion per year on a company that is pulling in far less than that.

Jeff Bezos leveraged the rules of capitalism to acquire his wealth, and he is currently worth $128B. He is not at risk of running out of money, even if he puts $1B into Blue Origin every year.

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News flash: Companies make money by getting more income from customers than they spend. Blue Origin cannot burn money forever.

Actually Blue Origin can burn $1B/year forever. See above.

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Not getting the NSSL contract or HLS contract did hurt Blue Origin. Those contracts could have covered a fair chunk of their operating expenses.

You keep saying this, but you have shown ZERO proof that New Glenn is lacking funding. And Jeff Bezos has plenty of money, so it's not like he can't invest $2B/year into Blue Origin if he wanted to. The yearly return on $128B well exceeds $2B/year, so it's not like he is in danger of dipping into his principle...  ::)

This is the reason why so many of us are scratching our heads about Blue Origin. They have access to enough capital to produce New Glenn, but they seem to lack urgency.
As with Musk, Bezos' wealth is tied up in Amazon stock. It's not cash ready to spend, and not 'invested' (so no 'returns'). The Amazon shares in particular are very illiquid - if BO suddenly needs $10Bn, selling the Amazon shares required to do so will also tank Amazon share prices, resulting in those shares themselves being worth less, even with scheduled share sales. Whilst he can borrow against those shares, that still requires both actual payments against those loans and Amazon stock to maintain value. Bezos will not be destitute, but there is no guarantee a $1Bn/yr burn rate can be sustained.
You're wrong. Facts absolutely do matter.

Fact-checking is absolutely vital to the establishment of constructive dialogue. Allowing false or misleading statements creates an environment where effective communication cannot flourish, if the entire conversation is founded on premises that are not correct.

Allowing false statements to be made because they are made along with a conclusion or opinion you support is the pathway towards allowing fact-free rumors, myths, and conspiracy theories to fester and grow.
Better scratch "BO was self funded" too then, as that statement is also false (to the tune of a quarter billion dollars).

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #381 on: 02/02/2023 08:09 pm »
Note to whitelancer64, I have no idea what part of my response you are responding to, because you quote EVERYTHING I said, and then say something. You could quote just the part you want to respond to, that would take up less vertical space, and everyone would understand what you are responding to.

No, because that would be horrendously idiotic on the part of Jeff Bezos. It's not how you run a business.

New Glenn is not a business yet, it is an R&D project that hopes to be a business, but other than the engines for New Glenn, New Glenn is not a business.

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This nonsense is on par with the people who think Elon Musk is a 4D chess playing business genius for being forced to buy Twitter for more than twice what it's worth.

I'm not one of those people, and I have no idea how you think this comment is relevant, since I have no idea what your comment is in response to.

And I notice that you still have not provided any evidence that New Glenn is lacking in financial resources...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #382 on: 02/02/2023 08:19 pm »
As with Musk, Bezos' wealth is tied up in Amazon stock. It's not cash ready to spend, and not 'invested' (so no 'returns').

OK, but so what? Bezos sells off Amazon stock all the time. Since 1998 there have only been four years when he didn't sell off Amazon stock, and in 2021 he sold off more than $8.8B worth of Amazon stock. Did you know that?

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The Amazon shares in particular are very illiquid - if BO suddenly needs $10Bn, selling the Amazon shares required to do so will also tank Amazon share prices, resulting in those shares themselves being worth less, even with scheduled share sales.

OK, I can tell you are making stuff up now, because Jeff Bezos sold off over $8.8B of Amazon stock in 2021 and the price of Amazon stock did not crater. And in general, most founders sell stock incrementally anyways in order to diversify their portfolio and have the cash on hand to invest in things like rockets or Dolly Parton.

In fact Bezos announced that he plans to give away the majority of his wealth, so the stock market is already primed for him to sell off Amazon stock.

So there are no barriers to Bezos upping his investment in Blue Origin if New Glenn needs more funds. Zero barriers. Which means the lack of progress on New Glenn is not funding related.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline leovinus

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #383 on: 02/02/2023 08:20 pm »
Just to confirm that there is BO office in Washington, DC, close to Dulles airport. Couldn't resist to make a quick photo from the metro.

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #384 on: 02/02/2023 08:29 pm »
Note to whitelancer64, I have no idea what part of my response you are responding to, because you quote EVERYTHING I said, and then say something. You could quote just the part you want to respond to, that would take up less vertical space, and everyone would understand what you are responding to.

No, because that would be horrendously idiotic on the part of Jeff Bezos. It's not how you run a business.

New Glenn is not a business yet, it is an R&D project that hopes to be a business, but other than the engines for New Glenn, New Glenn is not a business.

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This nonsense is on par with the people who think Elon Musk is a 4D chess playing business genius for being forced to buy Twitter for more than twice what it's worth.

I'm not one of those people, and I have no idea how you think this comment is relevant, since I have no idea what your comment is in response to.

And I notice that you still have not provided any evidence that New Glenn is lacking in financial resources...


You apparently think that Jeff Bezos can spend a billion a year on Blue Origin in perpetuity and that's a perfectly sound business plan.

This is the only way that I can make sense of your insistence that not winning the NSSL or HLS contracts was not a blow to Blue Origin.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline trimeta

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #385 on: 02/02/2023 09:02 pm »
Note to whitelancer64, I have no idea what part of my response you are responding to, because you quote EVERYTHING I said, and then say something. You could quote just the part you want to respond to, that would take up less vertical space, and everyone would understand what you are responding to.

No, because that would be horrendously idiotic on the part of Jeff Bezos. It's not how you run a business.

New Glenn is not a business yet, it is an R&D project that hopes to be a business, but other than the engines for New Glenn, New Glenn is not a business.

Quote
This nonsense is on par with the people who think Elon Musk is a 4D chess playing business genius for being forced to buy Twitter for more than twice what it's worth.

I'm not one of those people, and I have no idea how you think this comment is relevant, since I have no idea what your comment is in response to.

And I notice that you still have not provided any evidence that New Glenn is lacking in financial resources...


You apparently think that Jeff Bezos can spend a billion a year on Blue Origin in perpetuity and that's a perfectly sound business plan.

This is the only way that I can make sense of your insistence that not winning the NSSL or HLS contracts was not a blow to Blue Origin.

Reminder that the full amount Blue Origin was eligible to receive from NSSL Phase 1 was around $0.5 billion. They received around half of that due to the contract being dropped (since they didn't win Phase 2). For a company getting $1 billion a year anyway, is failing to secure another $0.25 billion over the course of a couple of years really a major blow that justifies them suddenly falling way behind their development plans?

And don't tell me "they were counting on winning NSSL Phase 2, which would have been more money." They'd have needed to actually build New Glenn before they could get NSSL Phase 2 money, even if they won. So obviously, the money to build New Glenn couldn't have been coming from NSSL Phase 2 funds.

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #386 on: 02/02/2023 09:20 pm »
Reminder that the full amount Blue Origin was eligible to receive from NSSL Phase 1 was around $0.5 billion. They received around half of that due to the contract being dropped (since they didn't win Phase 2). For a company getting $1 billion a year anyway, is failing to secure another $0.25 billion over the course of a couple of years really a major blow that justifies them suddenly falling way behind their development plans?

And don't tell me "they were counting on winning NSSL Phase 2, which would have been more money." They'd have needed to actually build New Glenn before they could get NSSL Phase 2 money, even if they won. So obviously, the money to build New Glenn couldn't have been coming from NSSL Phase 2 funds.

Blue Origin was asking for $6 billion in their HLS bid.

Oh, right, Blue Origin didn't really want to get contracts totalling several billions of dollars from the government. That would make no difference to their bottom line at all. All the work they did to try to get the contracts was just some sort of corporate performance art.
 /s

I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think that not getting a part of the NSSL / HLS awards did not hurt Blue Origin in any way.  There's no angle I can approach that thought from where it makes any sense at all.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Online mandrewa

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #387 on: 02/02/2023 09:40 pm »
It's not really true to say that Blue Origin did not win an NSSL award because actually they in effect did do so.

Blue Origin supplies the first stage engines for the Vulcan Centaur.  And the Vulcan Centaur is a major part of one of the two current NSSL contracts.  Despite never having flown, these Blue Origin engines will be getting a significant part of NSSL's expenditure.

Who knows what percentage of the ULA's cost to build the Vulcan Centaur the Blue Origin engines represents.  But I've always crudely estimated that the engines as roughly 50% of the cost of a rocket stack.

Blue Origin will hopefully be getting this income from the government fairly soon now.

But I'll say it again, Blue Origin won that income stream without ever having to prove that their engine worked.

Offline trimeta

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #388 on: 02/02/2023 09:48 pm »
Reminder that the full amount Blue Origin was eligible to receive from NSSL Phase 1 was around $0.5 billion. They received around half of that due to the contract being dropped (since they didn't win Phase 2). For a company getting $1 billion a year anyway, is failing to secure another $0.25 billion over the course of a couple of years really a major blow that justifies them suddenly falling way behind their development plans?

And don't tell me "they were counting on winning NSSL Phase 2, which would have been more money." They'd have needed to actually build New Glenn before they could get NSSL Phase 2 money, even if they won. So obviously, the money to build New Glenn couldn't have been coming from NSSL Phase 2 funds.

Blue Origin was asking for $6 billion in their HLS bid.

Oh, right, Blue Origin didn't really want to get contracts totalling several billions of dollars from the government. That would make no difference to their bottom line at all. All the work they did to try to get the contracts was just some sort of corporate performance art.
 /s

I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think that not getting a part of the NSSL / HLS awards did not hurt Blue Origin in any way.  There's no angle I can approach that thought from where it makes any sense at all.

How much money from the Blue Origin HLS bid would have gone towards New Glenn? First of all, the other "National Team" partners would have gotten a fairly large portion: recall that Blue Origin was only building the descent stage, while Lockheed Martin would build the ascent and habitation stage, Northrop Grumman would build the transfer element, and Draper would contribute avionics.

Plus, as should be obvious, the HLS money was primarily intended to facilitate development of the HLS, not of the launch vehicle which would put the HLS into NRHO. Sure, maybe a small amount would have gone towards common systems, but recall that one advantage that NASA noted of Blue Origin's bid was that it was launch-vehicle agnostic: it could fly on New Glenn or Vulcan. Given that, it seems extremely unlikely that a substantial amount of HLS funding would have gone towards New Glenn development specifically.

So while you can point to Blue Origin losing the HLS bid as to why they're so far behind on building their Blue Moon lander, you cannot say it's why they're so far behind on building New Glenn.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #389 on: 02/02/2023 09:49 pm »
Moderator:
Give us, via report to moderators function,  a good reason or reasons why this thread should be unlocked.  🔓

If I was a shaman of a particular variety, I would be sticking pins 📌 into dolls 🪆 representing certain veteran members who will not restrain themselves from propagating the same arguments, over and over and OVER again.

Stop! ✋️

Thread locked.  🔒 ✨️
« Last Edit: 02/02/2023 09:50 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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