Quote from: Robotbeat on 12/02/2020 03:44 amQuote from: Stan-1967 on 12/01/2020 11:09 pm...If F9 single stick was somehow developed into a fully reusable vehicle, it would likely be comparable to Rocketlab Electron on its best day. ...Your estimate is not even close! Off by over an order of magnitude!F9 droneship payload is 16 tons IMLEO. The upper stage dry mass is 4.5 tons. Even if recovery hardware doubled the mass of the upper stage (which is questionable), it'd still have 11.5 tons payload. That's nearly double Delta II's payload to LEO, and it's greater IMLEO than the variant of Atlas V that accounted for most of its launches (the version without any SRBs).And Starship will be successful even if all it does is send Starlink to LEO fully reusably.I'll emphasize the main point of my post was to reset the thinking that something like SS/SH or the imaginary New Armstrong ( 12m core) is not necessarily a large re-usable rocket. The SS/SH is probably at the lower end, size wise, of what is economically viable for a fully re-usable rocket, & even that depends on flight rate goals & prop transfer....
Quote from: Stan-1967 on 12/01/2020 11:09 pm...If F9 single stick was somehow developed into a fully reusable vehicle, it would likely be comparable to Rocketlab Electron on its best day. ...Your estimate is not even close! Off by over an order of magnitude!F9 droneship payload is 16 tons IMLEO. The upper stage dry mass is 4.5 tons. Even if recovery hardware doubled the mass of the upper stage (which is questionable), it'd still have 11.5 tons payload. That's nearly double Delta II's payload to LEO, and it's greater IMLEO than the variant of Atlas V that accounted for most of its launches (the version without any SRBs).And Starship will be successful even if all it does is send Starlink to LEO fully reusably.
...If F9 single stick was somehow developed into a fully reusable vehicle, it would likely be comparable to Rocketlab Electron on its best day. ...
Quote from: Stan-1967 on 12/02/2020 07:19 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 12/02/2020 03:44 amQuote from: Stan-1967 on 12/01/2020 11:09 pm...If F9 single stick was somehow developed into a fully reusable vehicle, it would likely be comparable to Rocketlab Electron on its best day. ...Your estimate is not even close! Off by over an order of magnitude!F9 droneship payload is 16 tons IMLEO. The upper stage dry mass is 4.5 tons. Even if recovery hardware doubled the mass of the upper stage (which is questionable), it'd still have 11.5 tons payload. That's nearly double Delta II's payload to LEO, and it's greater IMLEO than the variant of Atlas V that accounted for most of its launches (the version without any SRBs).And Starship will be successful even if all it does is send Starlink to LEO fully reusably.I'll emphasize the main point of my post was to reset the thinking that something like SS/SH or the imaginary New Armstrong ( 12m core) is not necessarily a large re-usable rocket. The SS/SH is probably at the lower end, size wise, of what is economically viable for a fully re-usable rocket, & even that depends on flight rate goals & prop transfer....I don't agree. Smaller fully reusable rockets are viable, and someone will build one. Probably within the next 10 years.
but for a company backed by the richest man on Earth and hoping to industrialize cislunar space.
Quote from: su27k on 01/25/2021 04:42 am but for a company backed by the richest man on Earth and hoping to industrialize cislunar space.Elon is now actually the richest man on Earth
To be honest, New Glenn is big enough even for very expansive development of space... PROVIDED they have a very high flight rate and are fully reusable. Thousands of launches per year.
More like 30 tons payload. Maybe 40-45 if they incrementally upgrade like F9.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 01/25/2021 10:36 pmMore like 30 tons payload. Maybe 40-45 if they incrementally upgrade like F9.You can say the same about SS... The ratio in liftoff thrust doesn't lie though. Nor does the ISP.When looking at payload, SS's numbers already account for extra propellant, aerodynamic surfaces and heat shielding. NG's hypothetical reusable US is building on numbers for expendable technology - there's a giant penalty hiding in there if they want to do a mini-reusable.I'll bet that when all is said and done, Starship will only increase the performance gap - simply because it'll fly more and mature faster... And by the time NG will have a chance to improve, SS will be at 12 m or larger."Expansive space development" means more than another ISS or some such. You want to talk about large habitats.. There's another factor of 6-7 (IIRC) from LEO mass to Lunar downmass.. So NG will be able to transport (in reusable mode) only a few tons at a time. That's just not enough.
Quote from: meekGee on 01/25/2021 10:49 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 01/25/2021 10:36 pmMore like 30 tons payload. Maybe 40-45 if they incrementally upgrade like F9.You can say the same about SS... The ratio in liftoff thrust doesn't lie though. Nor does the ISP.When looking at payload, SS's numbers already account for extra propellant, aerodynamic surfaces and heat shielding. NG's hypothetical reusable US is building on numbers for expendable technology - there's a giant penalty hiding in there if they want to do a mini-reusable.I'll bet that when all is said and done, Starship will only increase the performance gap - simply because it'll fly more and mature faster... And by the time NG will have a chance to improve, SS will be at 12 m or larger."Expansive space development" means more than another ISS or some such. You want to talk about large habitats.. There's another factor of 6-7 (IIRC) from LEO mass to Lunar downmass.. So NG will be able to transport (in reusable mode) only a few tons at a time. That's just not enough.Blue Origin has had reuse in their cross hairs before SpaceX existed. They’re super slow. But full reuse has always been the goal.And I don’t get where the heck you’re only getting “a few tons at a time” from. New Glenn is like 45 tons to LEO with first stage recovery. Upper stage reuse is not a massive penalty. Usually only considered a fraction of the upper stage dry mass. New Glenn has an upper stage dry mass of about 12 tons, roughly. Even if we were to conservatively double that, that’s still a fully reusable payload of 33 tons to LEO. That’s an order of magnitude more than “a few tons at a time.”
I know it took a while for SpaceX to develop the Falcon Heavy, maybe 2-3 years,...
Quote from: spacenut on 01/25/2021 01:06 amI know it took a while for SpaceX to develop the Falcon Heavy, maybe 2-3 years,...Falcon Heavy was announced in 2011 and flew seven years later.
Yes, but did they actually get started on it then or after they got the Full Thrust version of F9 so they could deliver more payload? Since the version they have now had to wait until they got the full thrust and the landings down.