Author Topic: New Shepard Discussion Thread  (Read 99794 times)

Offline yg1968

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #260 on: 07/06/2023 04:58 pm »
Ultimately the real benefit of new Shepherd is a really unique sales tool that competitor Space companies do not have.
In any sale you need to demonstrate capability, take a potential customer for a drive in the car they're looking to buy, take a potential customer for a flight in a new aircraft that they may be looking to purchase...and so Blue Origin going forward can put a potential client on a new Shepherd flight, in such a way that it would not take too much time out of their client's busy schedule, but demonstrate the capabilities of blue origin... And they would put the cost of the flight down to cost of sales....

Competitor space companies have an actual orbital capsule, or at least an orbital rocket.

OTOH there's no lineage between New Shepard and any orbital vehicle or rocket that BO might one day have, and customers of orbital services know all of that.

NS is not a sales tool. If anything it's a reminder of what BO can't do.

I can't say that I agree. Although they are secretive of it, it seems that Blue is still working on an orbital capsule.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46404.msg2498626#msg2498626

Furthermore, for the suborbital market, only 2 companies can provide these services. So very few companies can do what Blue is doing with New Shepard.
« Last Edit: 07/06/2023 04:59 pm by yg1968 »

Offline meekGee

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #261 on: 07/06/2023 05:08 pm »
Ultimately the real benefit of new Shepherd is a really unique sales tool that competitor Space companies do not have.
In any sale you need to demonstrate capability, take a potential customer for a drive in the car they're looking to buy, take a potential customer for a flight in a new aircraft that they may be looking to purchase...and so Blue Origin going forward can put a potential client on a new Shepherd flight, in such a way that it would not take too much time out of their client's busy schedule, but demonstrate the capabilities of blue origin... And they would put the cost of the flight down to cost of sales....

Competitor space companies have an actual orbital capsule, or at least an orbital rocket.

OTOH there's no lineage between New Shepard and any orbital vehicle or rocket that BO might one day have, and customers of orbital services know all of that.

NS is not a sales tool. If anything it's a reminder of what BO can't do.

I can't say that I agree. Although they are secretive of it, it seems that Blue is still working on an orbital capsule.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46404.msg2498626#msg2498626

Furthermore, for the suborbital market, only 2 companies can provide these services. So very few companies can do what Blue is doing with New Shepard.
Except for the BO fanbase, nobody is confusing suborbital rides with orbital capabilities.

I didn't say BO is not working on the latter. I'm saying NS is not a sales tool for them.

You can't sell cars by showcasing scooters. Especially if you only ever made a couple of them and they're not driving right now because one of them crashed.
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Online TrevorMonty

Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #262 on: 07/06/2023 08:40 pm »
Revenue return on suborbital HSF is marginal to say least given amount of investment needed to get it to operational level. If NS had been funded from venture capital it may have gone bankrupt by now. Then again there would've been incentive to be more aggressive with timeline and they may have used it as booster for small LV.
XCOR tried on lot less money and failed.

Compared to VG SS2 I think NS is still better design and probably safer. 

Offline meekGee

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #263 on: 07/06/2023 09:07 pm »
Revenue return on suborbital HSF is marginal to say least given amount of investment needed to get it to operational level. If NS had been funded from venture capital it may have gone bankrupt by now. Then again there would've been incentive to be more aggressive with timeline and they may have used it as booster for small LV.
XCOR tried on lot less money and failed.

Compared to VG SS2 I think NS is still better design and probably safer.
Without a doubt, agreed.
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Offline meekGee

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #264 on: 09/08/2023 12:55 pm »
Came across a news bit about SS2 flying shortly and couldn't help but wonder - what's happening here?
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Offline trimeta

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #265 on: 09/08/2023 02:29 pm »
Came across a news bit about SS2 flying shortly and couldn't help but wonder - what's happening here?
This is part of what confuses me about the sentiment of "Blue Origin secretly has 4-5 nearly-complete New Glenns hiding in their factories, and one day without notice or fanfare they'll roll one out and launch it successfully. And then they'll do it again two months later, and every two months after that, without fail" that we get from some here in the forum: Blue Origin had been launching New Shepard relatively regularly, reaching over 20 launches and a cadence of every 1-2 months, but a single setback (which reports suggest was caused by a known change in film cooling to the engine; something they theoretically could reverse at any time) has kept them grounded for over a year. If the first New Glenn launch isn't perfect in every way, how long would it take Blue Origin to recover from that anomaly and fly again?

Offline trimeta

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #266 on: 09/12/2023 02:18 pm »
"Well in production" doesn't give me confidence that "after we launch the first one, we'll be able to quickly launch the second one, and the third, etc." The NS4 Tail isn't even "in production," it's operational, but making whatever changes were necessary following the loss of NS3 has taken over a year. If the first New Glenn launch has literally anything go wrong with it (and please don't tell me that Blue Origin's simulations are so perfect that they'll have zero problems with the first launch), how long will it take to modify the second New Glenn vehicle to mitigate those issues? How much experience does Blue Origin have with quickly making changes and getting back into operations?

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #267 on: 09/21/2023 03:00 am »
Came across a news bit about SS2 flying shortly and couldn't help but wonder - what's happening here?
This is part of what confuses me about the sentiment of "Blue Origin secretly has 4-5 nearly-complete New Glenns hiding in their factories, and one day without notice or fanfare they'll roll one out and launch it successfully. And then they'll do it again two months later, and every two months after that, without fail" that we get from some here in the forum: Blue Origin had been launching New Shepard relatively regularly, reaching over 20 launches and a cadence of every 1-2 months, but a single setback (which reports suggest was caused by a known change in film cooling to the engine; something they theoretically could reverse at any time) has kept them grounded for over a year. If the first New Glenn launch isn't perfect in every way, how long would it take Blue Origin to recover from that anomaly and fly again?
Photos of components for New Glenn vehicles inside the Blue Origin at the Kennedy Space Center can be found at this link:
https://www.space.com/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-factory-photo

Offline trimeta

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #268 on: 09/21/2023 02:39 pm »
Photos of components for New Glenn vehicles inside the Blue Origin at the Kennedy Space Center can be found at this link:
https://www.space.com/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-factory-photo
I could send you a photo of New Shepard Tail 4, which isn't just a pile of components in a factory but rather is a complete assembly that's actually flown eight times. And yet following a failure with Tail 3 (one which resulted from a well-understood change from the previous known-good configuration), it's taken Blue Origin over a year to make and certify changes to Tail 4 to enable it to fly again. Just because they have the parts for New Glenn flight 2 lying around doesn't mean it wouldn't take them years between flights 1 and 2.

Online Robert_the_Doll

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #269 on: 09/21/2023 09:30 pm »
There are major differences:

1. NG-1 is not going to fly manned. It could be years before a New Glenn carries crew.

2. New Shepard can do either manned flights or unmanned.

Furthermore, we know that New Shepard is hardware-wise ready to go, the problem fixed, but that as was pointed out a couple months ago by Bob Smith, they are awaiting FAA approval. If Eric Berger is correct, that obstacle is out of the way and NS-24 is flying early next month.
« Last Edit: 09/22/2023 12:32 am by Robert_the_Doll »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #270 on: 11/03/2023 03:26 pm »
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1720476534358638965

Quote
I'll be somewhat surprised if New Shepard continues flying for more than two or three additional years. Article:

https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/11/as-virgin-galactic-soars-blue-origins-new-shepard-remains-grounded/

Quote
How long will Jeff Bezos continue to subsidize his New Shepard rocket?
"It's definitely a money loser. Always has been."

by Eric Berger - Nov 3, 2023 4:06pm GMT

Offline jstrotha0975

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #271 on: 11/03/2023 03:46 pm »
I think Jeff is real close to pulling the plug on New Shepard. It's way late to Spaceshiptwo and he will never get the money he put into it back. New Shepard just doesn't make economic sense.

Online Robert_the_Doll

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #272 on: 11/03/2023 05:39 pm »
There is no real indication of that. You could argue the same about Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo and Three vehicles, which are also hemorrhaging a great deal of capital, and would also have to massively increase flight rates to fly off all of the hundreds of already paid for customers in anything like a reasonable amount of time.

Online friendly3

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #273 on: 11/03/2023 06:44 pm »
There is no real indication of that. You could argue the same about Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo and Three vehicles, which are also hemorrhaging a great deal of capital, and would also have to massively increase flight rates to fly off all of the hundreds of already paid for customers in anything like a reasonable amount of time.

That's not quite the same thing. If Virgin Galactic were to discontinue SpaceShipTwo, the company would essentially cease to exist.
BO can discontinue New Shepard because they have, or soon will have, other products. Money making products, unlike New Shepard.

Offline meekGee

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #274 on: 11/03/2023 07:40 pm »
There is no real indication of that. You could argue the same about Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo and Three vehicles, which are also hemorrhaging a great deal of capital, and would also have to massively increase flight rates to fly off all of the hundreds of already paid for customers in anything like a reasonable amount of time.
With all the criticism that I have about BO's execution, at least they have a real rocket they're building, and really intend on going beyond LEO.

BO could drop NS tomorrow with no ill effects on NG. NS is a distraction now.  It's not about the money, it's about mindshare.

Get the good people out of there and into helping with NG. The timing is right.
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Online Robert_the_Doll

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #275 on: 11/03/2023 07:41 pm »
There is no real indication of that. You could argue the same about Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo and Three vehicles, which are also hemorrhaging a great deal of capital, and would also have to massively increase flight rates to fly off all of the hundreds of already paid for customers in anything like a reasonable amount of time.

That's not quite the same thing. If Virgin Galactic were to discontinue SpaceShipTwo, the company would essentially cease to exist.
BO can discontinue New Shepard because they have, or soon will have, other products. Money making products, unlike New Shepard.

Unfortunately, that does not make the point you think it's making.

Online friendly3

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #276 on: 11/03/2023 08:28 pm »
There is no real indication of that. You could argue the same about Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo and Three vehicles, which are also hemorrhaging a great deal of capital, and would also have to massively increase flight rates to fly off all of the hundreds of already paid for customers in anything like a reasonable amount of time.

That's not quite the same thing. If Virgin Galactic were to discontinue SpaceShipTwo, the company would essentially cease to exist.
BO can discontinue New Shepard because they have, or soon will have, other products. Money making products, unlike New Shepard.

Unfortunately, that does not make the point you think it's making.

Well, I'd argue that if you think you know what point I was trying to make then... I've made my point.
« Last Edit: 11/03/2023 08:28 pm by friendly3 »

Online Comga

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #277 on: 11/27/2023 09:13 pm »
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1720476534358638965

Quote
I'll be somewhat surprised if New Shepard continues flying for more than two or three additional years. Article:

https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/11/as-virgin-galactic-soars-blue-origins-new-shepard-remains-grounded/

Quote
How long will Jeff Bezos continue to subsidize his New Shepard rocket?
"It's definitely a money loser. Always has been."

by Eric Berger - Nov 3, 2023 4:06pm GMT

One of the benefits and supposed justifications for continuing to fly New Shepard is the experience Blue has gained in landing a rocket.
However, none of the methods or mechanisms used to land New Shepard are applical to or available on New Glenn.
The ring and drag flaps are neither available or designed into NG.
Its also clear that minimizing mass is critical to orbital rockets, where as suborbital rockets with excessive mass still have a business if they cope by reducing the maximum altitude.  SS2 continues to fly to 50 miles without making it's original goal of 100 km.
And we all know, and SpaceX demonstrates so clearly, mimizing time and gravity loss is critical.
Yet Blue hasn't done anything to reduce the hover time, even though that could translate into higher and (marginally) longer flights while approaching the dynamics of a continuous deceleration "hoverslam".
So it would seem that the value of NS to NG development is at least long gone.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Steve G

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #278 on: 11/27/2023 09:51 pm »
You can almost sense hesitation that they're too scared of another failure to fly New Shepard. If it's losing that much money, it makes perfect sense to wind down the program and allocate the resources for money better spent.

Offline gaballard

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Re: New Shepard Discussion Thread
« Reply #279 on: 12/02/2023 05:33 pm »
You can almost sense hesitation that they're too scared of another failure to fly New Shepard. If it's losing that much money, it makes perfect sense to wind down the program and allocate the resources for money better spent.

They seem to be terrified of failure in any form. Good luck with landing New Glenn on the first try like Bezos wants!
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