Author Topic: New Glenn Rocket to Launch Telesatís Global LEO Satellite Constellation  (Read 19202 times)

Online LouScheffer

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If I were a banker/investor I would have the following concerns: [...]

6. As an investor I would worry about lack of control, I would have direct influence of Telesat, but only indirect and limited influence over Blue Origin. Blue Origin has been run almost as a hobby by Bezos so far, what if his priorities change and Telesat are left hanging.
This is a non-trivial concern.   Look at what happened to StratoLaunch after Paul Allen died.  His heirs had/have less interest and project will surely not meet original schedules, if it's completed at all.

SpaceX is in a little better shape, I think.  If Musk dies, Shotwell is a competent second in command who could at the very least see out the existing contracts for F9.   A business plan that relies on Starlink or BFR would be at risk, though.

I have no idea what plans Blue has in place for death/incapacitation for Bezos.  But if I was making a business decision depending on New Glenn I'd want to see such a plan.

Offline envy887

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If I were a banker/investor I would have the following concerns: [...]

6. As an investor I would worry about lack of control, I would have direct influence of Telesat, but only indirect and limited influence over Blue Origin. Blue Origin has been run almost as a hobby by Bezos so far, what if his priorities change and Telesat are left hanging.
This is a non-trivial concern.   Look at what happened to StratoLaunch after Paul Allen died.  His heirs had/have less interest and project will surely not meet original schedules, if it's completed at all.

SpaceX is in a little better shape, I think.  If Musk dies, Shotwell is a competent second in command who could at the very least see out the existing contracts for F9.   A business plan that relies on Starlink or BFR would be at risk, though.

I have no idea what plans Blue has in place for death/incapacitation for Bezos.  But if I was making a business decision depending on New Glenn I'd want to see such a plan.

Blue is getting serious cash from some customers that have a lot more influence than Telesat, primarily  ULA/USAF/DoD. I'd expect they required a pretty serious business plan that wasn't completely reliant on Bezos cashing out of Amazon, before they coughed up the better part of a billion dollars worth of contracts for BE-4 and New Glenn.

Online meekGee

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If I were a banker/investor I would have the following concerns: [...]

6. As an investor I would worry about lack of control, I would have direct influence of Telesat, but only indirect and limited influence over Blue Origin. Blue Origin has been run almost as a hobby by Bezos so far, what if his priorities change and Telesat are left hanging.
This is a non-trivial concern.   Look at what happened to StratoLaunch after Paul Allen died.  His heirs had/have less interest and project will surely not meet original schedules, if it's completed at all.

SpaceX is in a little better shape, I think.  If Musk dies, Shotwell is a competent second in command who could at the very least see out the existing contracts for F9.   A business plan that relies on Starlink or BFR would be at risk, though.

I have no idea what plans Blue has in place for death/incapacitation for Bezos.  But if I was making a business decision depending on New Glenn I'd want to see such a plan.

Blue is getting serious cash from some customers that have a lot more influence than Telesat, primarily  ULA/USAF/DoD. I'd expect they required a pretty serious business plan that wasn't completely reliant on Bezos cashing out of Amazon, before they coughed up the better part of a billion dollars worth of contracts for BE-4 and New Glenn.

I don't think these customer are business savvy.  That whole sector (DOD-sponsored launch) was never connected to business realities.  Before BO, what was ULA's business plan?  It was to charge the DOD what it costs them plus some percentage of profit.  And if they came up short, USG added some cushion for "assured access" or some such.

I don't see this as being very different. If BO gives up, USG will shrug and move on.  Or give them more money.
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1171445913245470725

Quote
Mowry mentions Blue Originís deal with Telesat. Shotwell interjects: is that a real deal, signed contract? Mowry: yes it is.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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NG isnít flying yet, but neither is Telesatís LEO constellation as financing not yet in place:

https://spacenews.com/telesat-buys-in-orbit-satellite-to-help-cover-anik-f2-shortfall/

Quote
Telesat buys in-orbit satellite to help cover Anik F2 shortfall
Jason Rainbow
November 8, 2022

[Ö]

The company had no updates to share on debt negotiations to fully finance Telesat Lightspeed, its proposed low Earth orbit constellation of nearly 200 broadband satellites.

Offline pb2000

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The Federal government and Quebec had deals to give them a ton of money, but maybe it was contingent on also securing additional outside financing?

That being said, I think Starlink is now too far ahead so I don't see this ever getting off the ground. Might even be the end of Telesat.
Launches attended: Worldview-4 (Atlas V 401), Iridium NEXT Flight 1 (Falcon 9 FT), PAZ+Starlink (Falcon 9 FT), Arabsat-6A (Falcon Heavy)
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Online meekGee

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It's like the job of the movie producer in Hollywood...  You tell Spielberg that Brad's in, and you tell Brad that Spielberg already signed, and you tell the studios that there's Oscar buzz already, and before you know it, you have a comsat constellation!

It's like Get Shorty, but with rockets :)
« Last Edit: 02/21/2023 05:43 am by meekGee »
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Offline deadman1204

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The Federal government and Quebec had deals to give them a ton of money, but maybe it was contingent on also securing additional outside financing?

That being said, I think Starlink is now too far ahead so I don't see this ever getting off the ground. Might even be the end of Telesat.
The idea that nothing can compete with starlink is silly.
Is there only 1 cell phone provider in the world? Is there only 1 isp? Only 1 grocery store chain? There is no such thing as "too far ahead".

Offline Robotbeat

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The Federal government and Quebec had deals to give them a ton of money, but maybe it was contingent on also securing additional outside financing?

That being said, I think Starlink is now too far ahead so I don't see this ever getting off the ground. Might even be the end of Telesat.
The idea that nothing can compete with starlink is silly.
Is there only 1 cell phone provider in the world? Is there only 1 isp? Only 1 grocery store chain? There is no such thing as "too far ahead".
I actually agree with you. However… there are some markets where there’s effectively only two providers (Airbus and Boeing for large commercial airliners). OneWeb is operational but not really in the same market (not for individuals). Kuiper is likely to be that number 2, and it’s not obvious Telesat has the capital to compete with Kuiper and Starlink together.
« Last Edit: 02/21/2023 03:00 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline TrevorMonty

The Federal government and Quebec had deals to give them a ton of money, but maybe it was contingent on also securing additional outside financing?

That being said, I think Starlink is now too far ahead so I don't see this ever getting off the ground. Might even be the end of Telesat.
The idea that nothing can compete with starlink is silly.
Is there only 1 cell phone provider in the world? Is there only 1 isp? Only 1 grocery store chain? There is no such thing as "too far ahead".
I actually agree with you. HoweverÖ there are some markets where thereís effectively only two providers (Airbus and Boeing for large commercial airliners). OneWeb is operational but not really in the same market (not for individuals). Kuiper is likely to be that number 2, and itís not obvious Telesat has the capital to compete with Kuiper and Starlink together.
There is lot to be said for Oneweb business plan of dealing with Telcos of a country. Very small customer service team needed as no dealing with demanding individual customers and their problems. Telcos also have political connections to help with local regulations approval process.

Offline pb2000

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The idea that nothing can compete with starlink is silly.
Is there only 1 cell phone provider in the world? Is there only 1 isp? Only 1 grocery store chain? There is no such thing as "too far ahead".
I actually agree with you. HoweverÖ there are some markets where thereís effectively only two providers (Airbus and Boeing for large commercial airliners). OneWeb is operational but not really in the same market (not for individuals). Kuiper is likely to be that number 2, and itís not obvious Telesat has the capital to compete with Kuiper and Starlink together.
Telesat was getting squeezed hard on all their traditional business even before Starlink was a thing. Now the era of 0% interest is over, New Glenn still isn't ready and even when it is, who knows how long it will take them to get recovery perfected. Ironically, I think their only hope will be eating some humble pie and asking for a ride on Starship (and who knows when it will be ready for customer payloads).
Launches attended: Worldview-4 (Atlas V 401), Iridium NEXT Flight 1 (Falcon 9 FT), PAZ+Starlink (Falcon 9 FT), Arabsat-6A (Falcon Heavy)
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Offline Robotbeat

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The idea that nothing can compete with starlink is silly.
Is there only 1 cell phone provider in the world? Is there only 1 isp? Only 1 grocery store chain? There is no such thing as "too far ahead".
I actually agree with you. HoweverÖ there are some markets where thereís effectively only two providers (Airbus and Boeing for large commercial airliners). OneWeb is operational but not really in the same market (not for individuals). Kuiper is likely to be that number 2, and itís not obvious Telesat has the capital to compete with Kuiper and Starlink together.
Telesat was getting squeezed hard on all their traditional business even before Starlink was a thing. Now the era of 0% interest is over, New Glenn still isn't ready and even when it is, who knows how long it will take them to get recovery perfected. Ironically, I think their only hope will be eating some humble pie and asking for a ride on Starship (and who knows when it will be ready for customer payloads).
The Boeing LEO constellation project flew one or two prototypes on Falcon 9 Transporter already, so I donít see why Telesat wouldnít fly on Starship eventually. If Telesatís megaconstellation launches
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online meekGee

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The Federal government and Quebec had deals to give them a ton of money, but maybe it was contingent on also securing additional outside financing?

That being said, I think Starlink is now too far ahead so I don't see this ever getting off the ground. Might even be the end of Telesat.
The idea that nothing can compete with starlink is silly.
Is there only 1 cell phone provider in the world? Is there only 1 isp? Only 1 grocery store chain? There is no such thing as "too far ahead".

Outside China, Google comes to mind in Search and Maps, Facebook in Sosh-med (ha!), Tesla in electric Cars.  Boeing in airplanes, only to be joined by Airbus which got started as national effort, and only after things started to stabilize in the 70s.

The key seems to be rate-of-change. As long as the market leader keeps bounding forward or zig-zagging, unless they drop the ball, they often just can't be caught.

Once things become more predictable, a second comer, sometimes with government help, can start growing.

Right now BO is in a mad race to catch a rocket that's going to be retired soon. Kuiper is hoping to start launching at the time Starlink will be done with v1.x, which (along with F9) are considered by Musk to be borderline business cases.  What magic will Kuiper/NG wield to win over that?

NG, when it happens, will be a viable reusable launcher for today-sized payloads. But that won't be a money maker at that point, and the building blocks it can land on the moon are too small for serious lunar infrastructure.

NG can't be the backbone of BO's forward-looking plan.  They need to finish it and launch it, but they should not fool themselves and think that their position will be better once it flies.  They already need to be focusing on whatever NA is going to be.
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Offline pb2000

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I donít see why Telesat wouldnít fly on Starship eventually. If Telesatís megaconstellation launches
Eventually could be >5 years away, which is long enough for all of Telesat's major contracts to come up for renewal. Starlink now having global coverage (regulatory and political restrictions aside), kinda killed the last of my optimism.

Launches attended: Worldview-4 (Atlas V 401), Iridium NEXT Flight 1 (Falcon 9 FT), PAZ+Starlink (Falcon 9 FT), Arabsat-6A (Falcon Heavy)
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Offline Zed_Noir

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I donít see why Telesat wouldnít fly on Starship eventually. If Telesatís megaconstellation launches
Eventually could be >5 years away, which is long enough for all of Telesat's major contracts to come up for renewal. Starlink now having global coverage (regulatory and political restrictions aside), kinda killed the last of my optimism.
Maybe Telesat should just scrap their current LEO Constellation plans and buy Starlink comsats instead. It shouldn't  be that hard for SpaceX to cranked out about 750 extra version 1.5 Starlink comsat for Telesat.

Plus licensing Starlink version 1.5 production to Telesat for Constellation replenishment. Alternately SpaceX could maintained a residual production capacity of the early Starlink satcoms.

This crazy idea have the advantage for Telesat to not invested in developing yet another less capable LEO comsat and have flightworthy hardware available.

Offline pb2000

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I donít see why Telesat wouldnít fly on Starship eventually. If Telesatís megaconstellation launches
Eventually could be >5 years away, which is long enough for all of Telesat's major contracts to come up for renewal. Starlink now having global coverage (regulatory and political restrictions aside), kinda killed the last of my optimism.
Maybe Telesat should just scrap their current LEO Constellation plans and buy Starlink comsats instead. It shouldn't  be that hard for SpaceX to cranked out about 750 extra version 1.5 Starlink comsat for Telesat.

Plus licensing Starlink version 1.5 production to Telesat for Constellation replenishment. Alternately SpaceX could maintained a residual production capacity of the early Starlink satcoms.

This crazy idea have the advantage for Telesat to not invested in developing yet another less capable LEO comsat and have flightworthy hardware available.
The government $ is all about building the birds in Quebec and keeping Telesat afloat (the government pension fund owns a good chunk of it).
Launches attended: Worldview-4 (Atlas V 401), Iridium NEXT Flight 1 (Falcon 9 FT), PAZ+Starlink (Falcon 9 FT), Arabsat-6A (Falcon Heavy)
Pilgrimaged to: Boca Chica (09/19 & 01/22)

Offline Eric Hedman

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If I were a banker/investor I would have the following concerns: [...]

6. As an investor I would worry about lack of control, I would have direct influence of Telesat, but only indirect and limited influence over Blue Origin. Blue Origin has been run almost as a hobby by Bezos so far, what if his priorities change and Telesat are left hanging.
This is a non-trivial concern.   Look at what happened to StratoLaunch after Paul Allen died.  His heirs had/have less interest and project will surely not meet original schedules, if it's completed at all.
Paul Allen's heirs were right in selling off Stratolaunch.  The original business / technology plan wasn't very good.  The new owners using the large carrier aircraft to launch hypersonic test vehicles has in my opinion a better chance of succeeding.

Offline Zed_Noir

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I donít see why Telesat wouldnít fly on Starship eventually. If Telesatís megaconstellation launches
Eventually could be >5 years away, which is long enough for all of Telesat's major contracts to come up for renewal. Starlink now having global coverage (regulatory and political restrictions aside), kinda killed the last of my optimism.
Maybe Telesat should just scrap their current LEO Constellation plans and buy Starlink comsats instead. It shouldn't  be that hard for SpaceX to cranked out about 750 extra version 1.5 Starlink comsat for Telesat.

Plus licensing Starlink version 1.5 production to Telesat for Constellation replenishment. Alternately SpaceX could maintained a residual production capacity of the early Starlink satcoms.

This crazy idea have the advantage for Telesat to not invested in developing yet another less capable LEO comsat and have flightworthy hardware available.
The government $ is all about building the birds in Quebec and keeping Telesat afloat (the government pension fund owns a good chunk of it).
The new Telesat LEO satcom development program seems to be over-budget and behind schedule.

Don't think Telesat can both build new less capable LEO comsats and keep the company alive with their aging orbital assets without going into bankruptcy.

Doesn't matter if the various Canadian governments injected additional funding into Telesat. The current plan of record will not likely produce flight hardware before the Telesat losses their market share.


Offline GWH

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Doesn't matter if the various Canadian governments injected additional funding into Telesat. The current plan of record will not likely produce flight hardware before the Telesat losses their market share.

That's what we're best at. The Canadian government was handing out grants left right and center to telecom companies to provide high speed internet services in remote communities when Starlink was a like a year away.

If something is being built in Quebec than all reason goes even further out the window. We'd bail out a horse and buggy manufacturer if it came with a "Made in Quebec" sticker on it...

Offline Asteroza

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Doesn't matter if the various Canadian governments injected additional funding into Telesat. The current plan of record will not likely produce flight hardware before the Telesat losses their market share.

That's what we're best at. The Canadian government was handing out grants left right and center to telecom companies to provide high speed internet services in remote communities when Starlink was a like a year away.

If something is being built in Quebec than all reason goes even further out the window. We'd bail out a horse and buggy manufacturer if it came with a "Made in Quebec" sticker on it...

French newspace startups furiously scribbling notes...

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