Author Topic: New Glenn Launch Manifest  (Read 40180 times)

Online deadman1204

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #60 on: 02/14/2023 09:00 pm »
Blue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.
Lets be honest about this, Blue is doing the launch for free basically.
Its a simplex launch. Very tiny budget, and most of that budget was already spent.
There is no way nasa will be paying even break even costs for a new glenn launch for a simplex payload.


I think this is a great partnership. The payload was stranded on earth, so NASA gets a mars launch for practically free, and Blue gets all the great publicity of a mars launch.
« Last Edit: 02/14/2023 09:04 pm by deadman1204 »

Offline whitelancer64

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #61 on: 02/14/2023 09:18 pm »
Blue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.
Lets be honest about this, Blue is doing the launch for free basically.
Its a simplex launch. Very tiny budget, and most of that budget was already spent.
There is no way nasa will be paying even break even costs for a new glenn launch for a simplex payload.

I think this is a great partnership. The payload was stranded on earth, so NASA gets a mars launch for practically free, and Blue gets all the great publicity of a mars launch.

TIL $20 million is "practically free"

It's also likely to be a rideshare.
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Online deadman1204

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #62 on: 02/15/2023 02:01 am »
Blue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.
Lets be honest about this, Blue is doing the launch for free basically.
Its a simplex launch. Very tiny budget, and most of that budget was already spent.
There is no way nasa will be paying even break even costs for a new glenn launch for a simplex payload.

I think this is a great partnership. The payload was stranded on earth, so NASA gets a mars launch for practically free, and Blue gets all the great publicity of a mars launch.

TIL $20 million is "practically free"

It's also likely to be a rideshare.
For a new glenn launch to Mars? 20 million is practically free.

Offline GWH

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #63 on: 02/15/2023 02:47 pm »
I haven't seen performance figures outside of LEO  & SSO for Alpha or Terran 1, but those rockets are  stated at a price of $15-$17.6M and $12M respectively.

Assuming either could do it (factored LEO performance figures are very close) and tacking on a few extra million to round up to $20M - means that New Glenn's price is pretty typical to market pricing for this type of payload. 

How Blue Origin flies that without losing their shirt on launch is up to them. I'd wager that price isn't much more than their cost of expended hardware.

« Last Edit: 02/15/2023 02:50 pm by GWH »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #64 on: 02/15/2023 03:19 pm »


NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?

It strongly depends on how you define "competitor". By the time NG flies, they'll have spent the better part of $5 billion* developing it. Unless NG sells for $400 million a launch, it will be more a sign of Jeff Bezos still being happy to throw money at playing in space rather than someone actually managing to build something that can stand up to F9 commercially.

SpaceX has barely managed to eke out $3 billion/yr in launch business. If NG can take half of that, and make a massive 30% margin, it would only pay back its development cost in 10 years with zero interest. And it took enabling add-ons like Dragon to get the most profitable F9 business.

* It's been six years since Bezos confirmed he is putting $1 billion a year into Blue and they are realistically two years away from a real launch cadence. Not all of that is going into NG, but combined with income from subsidies and development contracts, $5 billion is a decent guess.

Blue aren't spenting all of annual $1B on NG. They have lot projects on the go.
LEO spacestation
Lunar lander.
ISRU development, see their recent announcement about demostrating solar cell manufacturing from regolith.
New Shepard.
Probably lot more that are secret.


Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #65 on: 02/18/2023 01:40 pm »
I’m trying to do a very overdue update of the NG launch manifest. It’s not pretty!

Kupier and ESCAPADE currently seem to be the most likely missions. Of the others:

Eutelsat said in April 2022:

Quote
Eutelsat now says it has no specific launch date slated for New Glenn, stating: “New Glenn is part of our portfolio of launch options and will be activated based on our future needs taking into consideration industry conditions at the time. Our launch contract with Blue Origin for a Eutelsat unspecified satellite on a New Glenn rocket is still current. It will help to diversify options for access to space.”

OneWeb is busy launching with ISRO and SpaceX. It seems unlikely NG will be available before OneWeb has their initial constellation on orbit?

mu Space still hasn’t launched anything to orbit - not clear if they ever will.

No more news from SKY Perfect JSAT about NG in the last few years. Perhaps just keep a watching brief like Eutelsat?

As of last November, Telesat still seemed to be arranging financing for their LEO constellation.

So very little of substance currently on the NG manifest. Presumably needs a firmer and closer launch date to progress any launch agreements.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #66 on: 02/18/2023 02:39 pm »
I’m trying to do a very overdue update of the NG launch manifest. It’s not pretty!

Kupier and ESCAPADE currently seem to be the most likely missions. Of the others:

Eutelsat said in April 2022:

Quote
Eutelsat now says it has no specific launch date slated for New Glenn, stating: “New Glenn is part of our portfolio of launch options and will be activated based on our future needs taking into consideration industry conditions at the time. Our launch contract with Blue Origin for a Eutelsat unspecified satellite on a New Glenn rocket is still current. It will help to diversify options for access to space.”

OneWeb is busy launching with ISRO and SpaceX. It seems unlikely NG will be available before OneWeb has their initial constellation on orbit?

mu Space still hasn’t launched anything to orbit - not clear if they ever will.

No more news from SKY Perfect JSAT about NG in the last few years. Perhaps just keep a watching brief like Eutelsat?

As of last November, Telesat still seemed to be arranging financing for their LEO constellation.

So very little of substance currently on the NG manifest. Presumably needs a firmer and closer launch date to progress any launch agreements.
For, me, SpaceX has demonstrated that a launch company succeeds when it has a customer with infinite demand that is willing to just use otherwise unsold launch capacity. That's what Starlink does for SpaceX. BO apparently has such a customer: Kuiper. Therefore, if they can execute and if Kuiper is successful, they can succeed. They will need to keep their prices competitive with SpaceX to win some higher-priority business also, of course, and the big question is the price of a Starship launch. We'll see. What this means is that forward-looking tentative manifests are probably very uncertain.

Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #67 on: 02/18/2023 03:51 pm »
I’m trying to do a very overdue update of the NG launch manifest. It’s not pretty!

Kupier and ESCAPADE currently seem to be the most likely missions. Of the others:

Eutelsat said in April 2022:

Quote
Eutelsat now says it has no specific launch date slated for New Glenn, stating: “New Glenn is part of our portfolio of launch options and will be activated based on our future needs taking into consideration industry conditions at the time. Our launch contract with Blue Origin for a Eutelsat unspecified satellite on a New Glenn rocket is still current. It will help to diversify options for access to space.”

OneWeb is busy launching with ISRO and SpaceX. It seems unlikely NG will be available before OneWeb has their initial constellation on orbit?

mu Space still hasn’t launched anything to orbit - not clear if they ever will.

No more news from SKY Perfect JSAT about NG in the last few years. Perhaps just keep a watching brief like Eutelsat?

As of last November, Telesat still seemed to be arranging financing for their LEO constellation.

So very little of substance currently on the NG manifest. Presumably needs a firmer and closer launch date to progress any launch agreements.
For, me, SpaceX has demonstrated that a launch company succeeds when it has a customer with infinite demand that is willing to just use otherwise unsold launch capacity. That's what Starlink does for SpaceX. BO apparently has such a customer: Kuiper. Therefore, if they can execute and if Kuiper is successful, they can succeed. They will need to keep their prices competitive with SpaceX to win some higher-priority business also, of course, and the big question is the price of a Starship launch. We'll see. What this means is that forward-looking tentative manifests are probably very uncertain.
Necessary condition, but not sufficient.

SpaceX already had a successful working heavy lifer before Starlink started using its services.  Not twice-a-week successful, but still.

NG has Kuiper.  But Kuiper so far doesn't have NG, and is itself very late to the game.

The lesson about F9 and Starlink is about vision, execution, and being first to market.
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Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #68 on: 02/18/2023 05:26 pm »
For, me, SpaceX has demonstrated that a launch company succeeds when it has a customer with infinite demand that is willing to just use otherwise unsold launch capacity.
Necessary condition, but not sufficient.

SpaceX already had a successful working heavy lifer before Starlink started using its services.  Not twice-a-week successful, but still.

NG has Kuiper.  But Kuiper so far doesn't have NG, and is itself very late to the game.

The lesson about F9 and Starlink is about vision, execution, and being first to market.
Agreed. I am trying to overcome my anti-BO bias and look for a possible path to success even with their thin manifest.

[FST Edit: fixed broken quote marks]
« Last Edit: 02/20/2023 05:47 am by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #69 on: 02/24/2023 05:38 pm »
twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1629188079511564289

Quote
Col. Douglas Pentecost of the US Air Force says the military recently signed a "three-flight" option with Blue Origin for certification of the New Glenn rocket. This means three flights, but less data than ULA had to provide for a two-flight certification.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1629188606999887873

Quote
SpaceX also used a "three-flight" certification for the Falcon rockets, he said. There are also six-flight and 14-flight options, apparently, the latter of which essentially requires no data at all for certification for DOD launches.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #70 on: 02/24/2023 08:33 pm »
twitter.com/nasa_lsp/status/1629231877205753858

Quote
Team members from @BlueOrigin met with LSP today to discuss New Glenn! 🚀

They presented multiple rocket models to the NASA team, including a seven-foot version that will be on display in the LSP lobby located in the Neil A. Armstrong Operations and Checkout Building.

https://twitter.com/nasa_lsp/status/1629231881911771136

Quote
LSP Engineers are working to certify New Glenn for the launch of NASA's ESCAPADE mission.

Named after NASA astronaut John Glenn, Blue Origin describes it as a single configuration heavy-lift launch vehicle with a reusable first stage capable of carrying people and payloads.

Offline ZachF

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #71 on: 03/05/2023 02:47 am »
Blue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.
Lets be honest about this, Blue is doing the launch for free basically.
Its a simplex launch. Very tiny budget, and most of that budget was already spent.
There is no way nasa will be paying even break even costs for a new glenn launch for a simplex payload.

I think this is a great partnership. The payload was stranded on earth, so NASA gets a mars launch for practically free, and Blue gets all the great publicity of a mars launch.

TIL $20 million is "practically free"

It's also likely to be a rideshare.

$20m is probably less than the manufacturing cost of a NG upper stage…
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Offline Conexion Espacial

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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #73 on: 03/15/2023 07:10 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1636094802004680704

Quote
Cornell: not going to say where the NASA launch contract for ESCAPADE fits into New Glenn manifest beyond that it will be an early mission and we'll be ready. [NASA planning late 2024 launch for ESCAPADE.]

Online deadman1204

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #74 on: 03/15/2023 08:01 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1636094802004680704

Quote
Cornell: not going to say where the NASA launch contract for ESCAPADE fits into New Glenn manifest beyond that it will be an early mission and we'll be ready. [NASA planning late 2024 launch for ESCAPADE.]
Better not be the first launch. Don't want nasa blowing a mars mission on a first launch - which has a high likelyhood of failure.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #75 on: 04/11/2023 08:11 pm »
twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1645880943524159491

Quote
At the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) meeting today, Rob Lillis, PI for the ESCAPADE mission, says the launch window for it is Aug. 6-15, 2024. He believes Blue Origin's New Glenn "likely will be ready" for launching the mission.

I wouldn’t bet on that …

Edit to add:

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1645882861885456386

Quote
He said he was initially concerned that New Glenn hans't launched yet, but after touring Blue's facilities at the Cape he is much less concerned. (Must have been one helluva tour.)
« Last Edit: 04/11/2023 08:15 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online Robert_the_Doll

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #76 on: 04/11/2023 10:41 pm »
Quote
I wouldn’t bet on that …

Given that Blue Origin just released a video with a glimpse of how major elements, such as the forward module and the BE-4 engines will be integrated together, we can only imagine how much more that he saw that maybe showed him that a great deal of progress is currently being made.

Offline mandrewa

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #77 on: 04/13/2023 01:05 pm »
"He confirmed the $20 million price for the New Glenn, which is “massively oversized” for ESCAPADE."

See https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/

Offline Comga

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #78 on: 04/13/2023 10:05 pm »
"He confirmed the $20 million price for the New Glenn, which is “massively oversized” for ESCAPADE."

See https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/

This article suggestse things are even worse than expected.
Quote
“NASA didn’t promise us a ride to Mars ..."

the current launch window ... Aug. 6 through 15 of 2024 ... “is approximate and provisional” and that options for the mission’s trajectory are still being studied.

The launch will place the spacecraft into an Earth orbit with a period of about 1.6 days. ... After launch, the spacecraft will boost themselves into higher Earth orbits before performing a maneuver to go to Mars.

“They were able to bid what they knew the price was going to be, regardless of the cost to them.”

ESCAPADE doesn't have a launch with a TMI.
ESCAPADE doesn't have a defined trajectory.
A very new vehicle will have a ten day launch window.
They can't use the over performance of New Glenn to widen the launch window with a TMI.
If ESCAPADE is launched into a 1.6 day orbit, the perigee better be aligned with the antipode of the Mars trajectory.  This puts additional constraints on the launch.


Blue could have used their "massively oversized" to expand the launch window while keeping the arrival delta V within the capacity of ESCAPADE, one of the few tasks for which the LH2/LOX upper stage is well suited, but that seems to have been explicitly excluded.

But Blue lowballed the launch to win.

It seems like a calamity in the making.



What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #79 on: 04/13/2023 11:14 pm »
With wet mass of 550kg of which 350 is fuel and ISP320 (estimated), gives DV of 3175m/s.

In regards to LVs I think new 1000kg class LVs like Terran 1 don't have enough performance to place these satellites into a high enough orbit. They really need likes of Vega or PSLV. 
« Last Edit: 04/13/2023 11:26 pm by TrevorMonty »

Tags: New Glenn escapade 
 

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