New Glenn Launch Manifest

[FutureSpaceTourist]

I’ve not seen any other media reports of Blue Origin launching an Iranian satellite:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/international-regulators-grant-iran-new-extension-for-years-delayed-satellite-for-43-5-east-blue-origin-launch-in-2024/

International regulators give Iran new extension for years-delayed satellite for 43.5 east; Blue Origin launch in 2024
written by Peter B. De Selding
July 5, 2023

TUPPER LAKE, NY — The Iranian government’s attempt to place a national telecommunications satellite into geostationary orbit at 43.5 degrees east has been a multi-year struggle against bad decisions, bad timing and international sanctions.

It’s still not over, but international regulators have now given Iran yet another extension of the deadline by which it must place a satellite at the slot […]

[meekGee]

I’ve not seen any other media reports of Blue Origin launching an Iranian satellite:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/international-regulators-grant-iran-new-extension-for-years-delayed-satellite-for-43-5-east-blue-origin-launch-in-2024/

International regulators give Iran new extension for years-delayed satellite for 43.5 east; Blue Origin launch in 2024
written by Peter B. De Selding
July 5, 2023

TUPPER LAKE, NY — The Iranian government’s attempt to place a national telecommunications satellite into geostationary orbit at 43.5 degrees east has been a multi-year struggle against bad decisions, bad timing and international sanctions.

It’s still not over, but international regulators have now given Iran yet another extension of the deadline by which it must place a satellite at the slot […]

It's part of the long-running effort by the US state department to deny Iran access to space.

[Zed_Noir]

.....

It's part of the long-running effort by the US state department to deny Iran access to space.

Was it stated somewhere by the US state department?

[Robert_the_Doll]

I’ve not seen any other media reports of Blue Origin launching an Iranian satellite:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/international-regulators-grant-iran-new-extension-for-years-delayed-satellite-for-43-5-east-blue-origin-launch-in-2024/

International regulators give Iran new extension for years-delayed satellite for 43.5 east; Blue Origin launch in 2024
written by Peter B. De Selding
July 5, 2023

TUPPER LAKE, NY — The Iranian government’s attempt to place a national telecommunications satellite into geostationary orbit at 43.5 degrees east has been a multi-year struggle against bad decisions, bad timing and international sanctions.

It’s still not over, but international regulators have now given Iran yet another extension of the deadline by which it must place a satellite at the slot […]

That article is behind a paywall, so there is no way for most people following your link to view it and have full context.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Blue’s revised NG page (https://www.blueorigin.com/new-glenn) lists Kuiper, Escapade and Telesat as customers.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Telesat confirmed that despite the new F9 contract announced today, they’ll launch on NG as well:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/telesat-buys-spacex-launches-for-lightspeed-internet-satellites.html

Telesat buys SpaceX launches for Lightspeed internet satellites
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 11 202310:51 AM EDT
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Michael Sheetz
@IN/MICHAELJSHEETZ
@THESHEETZTWEETZ

KEY POINTS

Elon Musk’s SpaceX signed a hefty deal with satellite operator Telesat.

The Lightspeed missions will fly on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.

Telesat still has a 2019 agreement in place with Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.

[spacenuance]

Telesat confirmed that despite the new F9 contract announced today, they’ll launch on NG as well:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/telesat-buys-spacex-launches-for-lightspeed-internet-satellites.html

Telesat buys SpaceX launches for Lightspeed internet satellites
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 11 202310:51 AM EDT
thumbnail
Michael Sheetz
@IN/MICHAELJSHEETZ
@THESHEETZTWEETZ

KEY POINTS

Elon Musk’s SpaceX signed a hefty deal with satellite operator Telesat.

The Lightspeed missions will fly on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.

Telesat still has a 2019 agreement in place with Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.

The way I understand this is that F9 will launch the entire Lightspeed constellation, but if Telesat has any spares, or decides to expand it in the future with either more satellites or newer next gen satellites, New Glenn is what they would use under that contract (if you can call it that, sounds more like an agreement like the ones Peter Beck has criticized). Telesat could also opt to use NG to launch geostationary satellite(s) in the future as well.

[Purona]

I wouldn't say Space X signed to launch the entire constellation. Even with their current launches 14 and maximum number of satellites per launch. they are still short of the planned number of satellites for the constellation.

[spacenuance]

I wouldn't say Space X signed to launch the entire constellation. Even with their current launches 14 and maximum number of satellites per launch. they are still short of the planned number of satellites for the constellation.

No, 198 sat constellation over 14 launches is an average of about 14 sats per launch on F9, max stated per launch is 18. But this is the New Glenn thread.

[GWH]

I wouldn't say Space X signed to launch the entire constellation. Even with their current launches 14 and maximum number of satellites per launch. they are still short of the planned number of satellites for the constellation.

No, 198 sat constellation over 14 launches is an average of about 14 sats per launch on F9, max stated per launch is 18. But this is the New Glenn thread.

Your point still seems relevant to this thread though. 14 launches seems like enough to cover the entirety of the launch requirements for this constellation, and if that is the case then what is left for Blue Origin?

[Coastal Ron]

I wouldn't say Space X signed to launch the entire constellation.

Yep, the entire constellation. Telesat is having MDA build 198 satellites, and Telesat is having SpaceX launch 198 satellites.

Telesat Contracts MDA as Prime Satellite Manufacturer for Its Advanced Telesat Lightspeed Low Earth Orbit Constellation | Telesat

Telesat books 14 launches with SpaceX, bypassing Blue Origin and Relativity | Ars Technica

Relevant quote:

The 14 missions appear to be more than enough to launch Telesat's first batch of 198 Lightspeed satellites, and the company said the launches will enable global service, which requires 156 spacecraft in orbit, to begin in 2027.

Then you said:

Even with their current launches 14 and maximum number of satellites per launch. they are still short of the planned number of satellites for the constellation.

Each Falcon 9 launch could launch up to 18 satellites, and they only need to average 14.1 per launch for the 198 satellite constellation. So those 14 launches appear to have enough capacity to launch the entire constellation.

As for Blue Origin and Relativity:

“We remain in close contact with Blue Origin and believe in time they will become a valued launch provider, and we think it is important to have optionality in our launch services,” a Telesat spokesperson told Ars.
...
“We never envisioned Relativity as part of our initial constellation deployment,” the Telesat spokesperson said. “Instead, we can leverage their capability for single satellite deployments to either replace a satellite or add additional capacity to the network.”

So both could be considered for future launch services, but not for this initial constellation deployment.

[Purona]

their intended constellation size is 298 their initial deployment is 198

[Zed_Noir]

their intended constellation size is 298 their initial deployment is 198

Telesat have change their satcom supplier to MDA with a different satellite bus design as well as a decrease in constellation size to 198 due to budget constrain to slightly higher orbits.

Unless there is new funding for additional comsats for this iteration of the Lightspeed constellation. There will be 198 and only 198 comsats manufactured by MDA. If there is additional satcoms, SpaceX have capacity for 54 more comsats with the sign contract for 14 Falcon 9 launches.

If Telesat and their Lightspeed makes it to planning for constellation replenishment in about 3 years than the size of the constellation might increase beyond 198 with different launch arrangements.

[Coastal Ron]

their intended constellation size is 298 their initial deployment is 198

In my response to you above I actually linked the Telesat press release saying they were buying 198 satellites from MDA. Are you not believing Telesat?

[JCRM]

their intended constellation size is 298 their initial deployment is 198

In my response to you above I actually linked the Telesat press release saying they were buying 198 satellites from MDA. Are you not believing Telesat?

It pivots on whether "the initial deployment" can be considered "the whole constellation."

I expect there will be little incentive to use a second provider, after the initial deployment, so I think it likely the whole constellation will be deployed by SpaceX, but that isn't yet "signed."

[whitelancer64]

Telesat originally planned a constellation of 298 satellites, however, in mid 2022 they had to downsize to a constellation of 198 satellites due to supply chain shortages.

"Increasing costs and delays have forced Telesat to downsize plans for 298 low Earth orbit satellites by a third to keep within its $5 billion budget.

The Canadian satellite operator plans to order just 188 satellites plus 10 in-orbit spares from Thales Alenia Space, Telesat CEO Dan Goldberg said during the company’s May 6 earnings call."

https://spacenews.com/telesat-to-order-90-fewer-satellites-for-leo-constellation/


In August 2023, Telesat switched to a contract with the satellite manufacturer MDA, which has options for 100 more satellites, if funding for them can be secured through early operation of the constellation.

"The MDA contract includes options for an additional 100 satellites to expand the constellation to 298 satellites."

There are a lot more details in this article:

https://spacenews.com/telesats-leo-constellation-fully-funded-after-manufacturer-switch/

[deltaV]

Many sources reported that NASA’s EscaPADE (two spacecraft totaling about 1 tonne wet) will launch on New Glenn for $20M (e.g. up-thread or https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/). The Main Engine Cutoff podcast (https://mainenginecutoff.com/podcast/240 starting 15:15 in) additionally made vague claims that they heard about other $20M New Glenn launches. Do we have any good info on whether $20M is a special price for this unusually small payload or the usual price for New Glenn launches?

Edit: maybe $20M is for RTLS reuse and barge landings will be more?

[spacenuance]

Many sources reported that NASA’s EscaPADE (two spacecraft totaling about 1 tonne wet) will launch on New Glenn for $20M (e.g. up-thread or https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/). The Main Engine Cutoff podcast (https://mainenginecutoff.com/podcast/240 starting 15:15 in) additionally made vague claims that they heard about other $20M New Glenn launches. Do we have any good info on whether $20M is a special price for this unusually small payload or the usual price for New Glenn launches?

Edit: maybe $20M is for RTLS reuse and barge landings will be more?

Spacenews article quotes a government procurement database for that 20 mil number. https://spacenews.com/blue-origin-wins-first-nasa-business-for-new-glenn/

From my understanding, the price is inconsequential and meaningless: Blue bid for and made sure to win this launch for the sake of winning a NASA mission. That 20 mil means nothing in relation to what we can expect for actual New Glenn commercial launch prices.

[whitelancer64]

Many sources reported that NASA’s EscaPADE (two spacecraft totaling about 1 tonne wet) will launch on New Glenn for $20M (e.g. up-thread or https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/). The Main Engine Cutoff podcast (https://mainenginecutoff.com/podcast/240 starting 15:15 in) additionally made vague claims that they heard about other $20M New Glenn launches. Do we have any good info on whether $20M is a special price for this unusually small payload or the usual price for New Glenn launches?

Edit: maybe $20M is for RTLS reuse and barge landings will be more?

It is widely though to be a rideshare launch, so NASA will possibly not be the only paying customer on board. Old estimates for a New Glenn launch put its base price around $60-80 million. Now, due to inflation, supply chain disruptions, etc. it's probably around the high end of that range. Also, payloads willing to risk flying on first launches usually get a very big (like 50%) discount.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Crosspost:

From the above interview:

.@JeffBezos re: New Glenn in conversation with @lexfridman:

"Very optimistic" for a first launch in 2024, but unsure what payload it will carry. Possibly EscaPADE. "We also have other things that might go on that first mission."

"Extremely nervous" about first launch.

https://twitter.com/johnkrausphotos/status/1735365667937722502

"Blue Origin needs to be much faster and it's one of the reasons I left my role as the CEO of Amazon a couple of years ago. I wanted to come in, and Blue Origin needs me right now."