Author Topic: New Glenn Launch Manifest  (Read 75695 times)

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15698
  • N. California
  • Liked: 15850
  • Likes Given: 1443
Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #120 on: 11/15/2024 10:33 pm »
They fixed it:
"New Glenn stands more than 320 feet (98 meters) tall and is named after John Glenn, the first American to orbit Earth."
It was a simple units mix-up...
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline Tywin

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #121 on: 11/16/2024 04:59 pm »
https://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-g

Quote
Caleb Henry
@ChenrySpace
New AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.

- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each
- SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and
- ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite.

All in 2025 & 2026.

Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.
Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.

Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.


yeah sure, that is why Spacex launch in Falcon 9 instead FH...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline Tywin

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #122 on: 11/16/2024 05:00 pm »
Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.

Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.

Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.

I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?

No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.


Always have been...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15698
  • N. California
  • Liked: 15850
  • Likes Given: 1443
Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #123 on: 11/17/2024 12:37 am »
https://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-g

Quote
Caleb Henry
@ChenrySpace
New AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.

- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each
- SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and
- ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite.

All in 2025 & 2026.

Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.
Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.

Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.


yeah sure, that is why Spacex launch in Falcon 9 instead FH...
SpaceX uses F9 because:
- They can use 3 pads instead of 1
- Faster turn-around

But NG doesn't have fast turn-around or quick cadence, so for large payloads that don't fit F9, FH can (and probably does) beat NG on cost

That said, cost is not everything. There's diversity, reliability, availability.

The first is the main reason why they split the launches...
« Last Edit: 11/17/2024 12:38 am by meekGee »
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15698
  • N. California
  • Liked: 15850
  • Likes Given: 1443
Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #124 on: 11/17/2024 12:46 am »
Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.

Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.

Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.

I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?

No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.


Always have been...
Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH.  That window has since sailed...

The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.

Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline Tywin

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #125 on: 11/17/2024 01:46 am »
Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.

Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.

Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.

I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?

No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.


Always have been...
Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH.  That window has since sailed...

The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.

Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.


You sure? well the customer don't think the same...

https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-leans-on-blue-origin-to-ramp-up-satellite-launches/


Quote
He said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).

« Last Edit: 11/17/2024 01:49 am by Tywin »
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline Tywin

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #126 on: 11/17/2024 01:48 am »
https://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-g

Quote
Caleb Henry
@ChenrySpace
New AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.

- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each
- SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and
- ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite.

All in 2025 & 2026.

Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.
Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.

Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.


yeah sure, that is why Spacex launch in Falcon 9 instead FH...
SpaceX uses F9 because:
- They can use 3 pads instead of 1
- Faster turn-around

But NG doesn't have fast turn-around or quick cadence, so for large payloads that don't fit F9, FH can (and probably does) beat NG on cost

That said, cost is not everything. There's diversity, reliability, availability.

The first is the main reason why they split the launches...

Nobody launch gold or a block of stone...

The fairing of FH had a diameter, a little more than 3.5 meter...


So is a rocket NOT good for LEO or mega constellations...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15698
  • N. California
  • Liked: 15850
  • Likes Given: 1443
Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #127 on: 11/17/2024 12:42 pm »


Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.

Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.

Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.

I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?

No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.


Always have been...
Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH.  That window has since sailed...

The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.

Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.


You sure? well the customer don't think the same...

https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-leans-on-blue-origin-to-ramp-up-satellite-launches/


Quote
He said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).


The window for NG to outcompete F9 is long long gone.  That it just got a launch is hardly an indication of the opposite.

NG will go up against both Falcon and Starship at the same time.  Much less capable than a fully reusable Starship, much less mature than a 150/year F9, it's going to settle for scraps and diversity contracts like this one.
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline ZachF

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1838
  • Immensely complex & high risk
  • NH, USA, Earth
  • Liked: 3027
  • Likes Given: 610
Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #128 on: 11/17/2024 11:39 pm »


Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.

Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.

Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.

I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?

No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.


Always have been...
Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH.  That window has since sailed...

The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.

Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.


You sure? well the customer don't think the same...

https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-leans-on-blue-origin-to-ramp-up-satellite-launches/


Quote
He said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).


The window for NG to outcompete F9 is long long gone.  That it just got a launch is hardly an indication of the opposite.

NG will go up against both Falcon and Starship at the same time.  Much less capable than a fully reusable Starship, much less mature than a 150/year F9, it's going to settle for scraps and diversity contracts like this one.

I think BO will get business from the "no SpaceX" customers, but who is going to hurt the most are the expendable launchers. I wouldn't be surprised to some F9 price cuts after NG launches, especially since they get most of their revenue from Starlink now.

F9 at $39m is curtains for most other launchers, and probably still makes a 50% profit at those prices...
artist, so take opinions expressed above with a well-rendered grain of salt...
https://www.instagram.com/artzf/

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15698
  • N. California
  • Liked: 15850
  • Likes Given: 1443
Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #129 on: 11/18/2024 02:13 am »


Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.

Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.

Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.

I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?

No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.


Always have been...
Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH.  That window has since sailed...

The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.

Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.


You sure? well the customer don't think the same...

https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-leans-on-blue-origin-to-ramp-up-satellite-launches/


Quote
He said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).


The window for NG to outcompete F9 is long long gone.  That it just got a launch is hardly an indication of the opposite.

NG will go up against both Falcon and Starship at the same time.  Much less capable than a fully reusable Starship, much less mature than a 150/year F9, it's going to settle for scraps and diversity contracts like this one.

I think BO will get business from the "no SpaceX" customers, but who is going to hurt the most are the expendable launchers. I wouldn't be surprised to some F9 price cuts after NG launches, especially since they get most of their revenue from Starlink now.

F9 at $39m is curtains for most other launchers, and probably still makes a 50% profit at those prices...
How many non-SpaceX customers will there be?  Kuiper, some DoD diversity launches?  And both are risky.  Kuiper faces a huge uphill climb at funding levels that are high even for Amazon, and DoD diversity may be that much.  And without volume, NG can't drop prices.  It's going to be a very tough road, with lots of uncertainty.

But one thing at a time. They need to launch, celebrate, recover, celebrate, reuse, celebrate... And then get to all of the above. Hopefully all done before end of 2025.
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline sstli2

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 169
  • New York City
  • Liked: 222
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #130 on: 12/28/2024 05:40 pm »
Note here is how Blue Origin describes their manifest, from yesterday's press release:

Quote
Blue Origin has several New Glenn vehicles in production and a full customer manifest. Customers include NASA, Amazon’s Project Kuiper, AST SpaceMobile, several telecommunications providers, and a mix of U.S. government customers. Blue Origin is certifying New Glenn with the U.S. Space Force for the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program to meet emerging national security objectives.

Nothing surprising here, although it's unclear what "several telecommunications providers" refers to (Telesat, Eutelsat?).

Offline DanClemmensen

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7481
  • Earth (currently)
  • Liked: 6077
  • Likes Given: 2541
Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #131 on: 12/28/2024 05:50 pm »

How many non-SpaceX customers will there be?  Kuiper, some DoD diversity launches?  And both are risky.  Kuiper faces a huge uphill climb at funding levels that are high even for Amazon, and DoD diversity may be that much.  And without volume, NG can't drop prices.  It's going to be a very tough road, with lots of uncertainty.

For initial launches, price does not reflect cost. They will charge whatever they think makes the most marketing sense, and the cost is internally charged as a development expense. The first FH launch was a Tesla Roadster.

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10811
  • US
  • Liked: 15007
  • Likes Given: 6581
Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #132 on: 12/28/2024 10:27 pm »
Most of the recent discussion here shouldn't really be in a manifest thread.

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #133 on: 12/30/2024 10:27 pm »
I tried to use this information posted on here and came up with my own opinion, curious what others think. Appears that most the others listed on here are either canceled/not happening or still a couple years away. I have no idea when Kuiper is ready & how they will prioritize their massive amount of launches they have booked.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1hq0gl1/2025_launch_manifest/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

January 2025 - Pathfinder - Blue Ring - Maiden Flight - 1st NSSL
H1 2025 - Escapade
H1 2025 - Kuiper
H1 2025 - Pathfinder 2 - Blue Ring & HLS testing & 2nd NSSL
H2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBird
H2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBird
H2 2025 - Kuiper
H2 2025 - Blue Moon Mark I Lunar Lander

Offline Tywin

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #134 on: 12/31/2024 05:14 pm »
I tried to use this information posted on here and came up with my own opinion, curious what others think. Appears that most the others listed on here are either canceled/not happening or still a couple years away. I have no idea when Kuiper is ready & how they will prioritize their massive amount of launches they have booked.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1hq0gl1/2025_launch_manifest/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

January 2025 - Pathfinder - Blue Ring - Maiden Flight - 1st NSSL
H1 2025 - Escapade
H1 2025 - Kuiper
H1 2025 - Pathfinder 2 - Blue Ring & HLS testing & 2nd NSSL
H2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBird
H2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBird
H2 2025 - Kuiper
H2 2025 - Blue Moon Mark I Lunar Lander

They have too, but not schedule yet:

- Eutelsat

- Telesat

- Mu Space (doubt)

- Sky Perfect JSAT


https://www.geekwire.com/2018/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-strikes-satellite-launch-deal-japans-sky-perfect-jsat/
« Last Edit: 12/31/2024 05:19 pm by Tywin »
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline Tywin

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #135 on: 12/31/2024 05:18 pm »
By the way, they have EUTELSAT, now owner of Oneweb...


Oneweb have an agreement with Relativity - Terran-R...

BUT this rocket is in a serious doubt future...

Maybe the next 100 Oneweb and the GEN2 is launch by New Glenn...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline Tywin

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #136 on: 12/31/2024 05:20 pm »
« Last Edit: 12/31/2024 05:22 pm by Tywin »
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #137 on: 01/03/2025 12:12 pm »
I tried to use this information posted on here and came up with my own opinion, curious what others think. Appears that most the others listed on here are either canceled/not happening or still a couple years away. I have no idea when Kuiper is ready & how they will prioritize their massive amount of launches they have booked.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1hq0gl1/2025_launch_manifest/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

January 2025 - Pathfinder - Blue Ring - Maiden Flight - 1st NSSL
H1 2025 - Escapade
H1 2025 - Kuiper
H1 2025 - Pathfinder 2 - Blue Ring & HLS testing & 2nd NSSL
H2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBird
H2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBird
H2 2025 - Kuiper
H2 2025 - Blue Moon Mark I Lunar Lander

They have too, but not schedule yet:

- Eutelsat

- Telesat

- Mu Space (doubt)

- Sky Perfect JSAT


https://www.geekwire.com/2018/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-strikes-satellite-launch-deal-japans-sky-perfect-jsat/


Yes, I discussed & gave sources to each of those in my reddit post if you wanted to go take a look at that link.

Eutelsat & OneWeb - Finished constellation with SpaceX, next aren't until late 2027. Did book a single GEO, so could use that & said they will find a spacecraft when BO is ready.

MuSpace - no signs of recent satellite work, partnered with OneWeb, are doing Lunar Lander but with iSpace but those are on SpaceX and next one is 2026

SkyPerfect JSAT - JSAT31 ordered from Thales to launch in 2027, not clear if SpaceX or BO.

Telesat - just last year booked 14 launches for 252 satellites starting in 2026, those (192) are what they ordered from MDA. Didn't order any more. So appears they switched to SpaceX.

 

Offline DreamyPickle

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 959
  • Home
  • Liked: 926
  • Likes Given: 205
Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #138 on: 01/16/2025 07:05 am »
This manifest is very far out of date.

Do we have any good idea on when the second flight is?

Offline GewoonLukas_

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1882
  • Lukas C. H.
  • Netherlands
  • Liked: 4598
  • Likes Given: 2076
Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #139 on: 01/16/2025 07:17 am »
This manifest is very far out of date.

Do we have any good idea on when the second flight is?

Next flight will be in the spring:

Quote
We did it!  Orbital.  Great night for Team Blue. On to spring and trying again on the landing.  (Here is another view!)

https://twitter.com/davill/status/1879802276338139350
Lukas C. H. • Hobbyist Mission Patch Artist 🎨 • May the force be with you my friend, Ad Astra Per Aspera ✨️

Tags: escapade updates 
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1