They fixed it:"New Glenn stands more than 320 feet (98 meters) tall and is named after John Glenn, the first American to orbit Earth."
Quote from: sstli2 on 11/14/2024 10:25 pmhttps://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-gQuoteCaleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.
https://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-gQuoteCaleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.
Caleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.
Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.
Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amQuote from: sstli2 on 11/14/2024 10:25 pmhttps://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-gQuoteCaleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.yeah sure, that is why Spacex launch in Falcon 9 instead FH...
Quote from: sstli2 on 11/15/2024 03:33 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.Always have been...
Quote from: Tywin on 11/16/2024 05:00 pmQuote from: sstli2 on 11/15/2024 03:33 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.Always have been...Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH. That window has since sailed...The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.
He said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).
Quote from: Tywin on 11/16/2024 04:59 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amQuote from: sstli2 on 11/14/2024 10:25 pmhttps://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-gQuoteCaleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.yeah sure, that is why Spacex launch in Falcon 9 instead FH...SpaceX uses F9 because:- They can use 3 pads instead of 1- Faster turn-aroundBut NG doesn't have fast turn-around or quick cadence, so for large payloads that don't fit F9, FH can (and probably does) beat NG on cost That said, cost is not everything. There's diversity, reliability, availability.The first is the main reason why they split the launches...
Quote from: meekGee on 11/17/2024 12:46 amQuote from: Tywin on 11/16/2024 05:00 pmQuote from: sstli2 on 11/15/2024 03:33 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.Always have been...Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH. That window has since sailed...The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.You sure? well the customer don't think the same...https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-leans-on-blue-origin-to-ramp-up-satellite-launches/QuoteHe said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).
Quote from: Tywin on 11/17/2024 01:46 amQuote from: meekGee on 11/17/2024 12:46 amQuote from: Tywin on 11/16/2024 05:00 pmQuote from: sstli2 on 11/15/2024 03:33 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.Always have been...Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH. That window has since sailed...The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.You sure? well the customer don't think the same...https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-leans-on-blue-origin-to-ramp-up-satellite-launches/QuoteHe said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).The window for NG to outcompete F9 is long long gone. That it just got a launch is hardly an indication of the opposite.NG will go up against both Falcon and Starship at the same time. Much less capable than a fully reusable Starship, much less mature than a 150/year F9, it's going to settle for scraps and diversity contracts like this one.
Quote from: meekGee on 11/17/2024 12:42 pmQuote from: Tywin on 11/17/2024 01:46 amQuote from: meekGee on 11/17/2024 12:46 amQuote from: Tywin on 11/16/2024 05:00 pmQuote from: sstli2 on 11/15/2024 03:33 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.Always have been...Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH. That window has since sailed...The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.You sure? well the customer don't think the same...https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-leans-on-blue-origin-to-ramp-up-satellite-launches/QuoteHe said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).The window for NG to outcompete F9 is long long gone. That it just got a launch is hardly an indication of the opposite.NG will go up against both Falcon and Starship at the same time. Much less capable than a fully reusable Starship, much less mature than a 150/year F9, it's going to settle for scraps and diversity contracts like this one.I think BO will get business from the "no SpaceX" customers, but who is going to hurt the most are the expendable launchers. I wouldn't be surprised to some F9 price cuts after NG launches, especially since they get most of their revenue from Starlink now.F9 at $39m is curtains for most other launchers, and probably still makes a 50% profit at those prices...
Blue Origin has several New Glenn vehicles in production and a full customer manifest. Customers include NASA, Amazon’s Project Kuiper, AST SpaceMobile, several telecommunications providers, and a mix of U.S. government customers. Blue Origin is certifying New Glenn with the U.S. Space Force for the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program to meet emerging national security objectives.
How many non-SpaceX customers will there be? Kuiper, some DoD diversity launches? And both are risky. Kuiper faces a huge uphill climb at funding levels that are high even for Amazon, and DoD diversity may be that much. And without volume, NG can't drop prices. It's going to be a very tough road, with lots of uncertainty.
I tried to use this information posted on here and came up with my own opinion, curious what others think. Appears that most the others listed on here are either canceled/not happening or still a couple years away. I have no idea when Kuiper is ready & how they will prioritize their massive amount of launches they have booked. https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1hq0gl1/2025_launch_manifest/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_buttonJanuary 2025 - Pathfinder - Blue Ring - Maiden Flight - 1st NSSLH1 2025 - EscapadeH1 2025 - KuiperH1 2025 - Pathfinder 2 - Blue Ring & HLS testing & 2nd NSSLH2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBirdH2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBirdH2 2025 - KuiperH2 2025 - Blue Moon Mark I Lunar Lander
Quote from: tottaway22 on 12/30/2024 10:27 pmI tried to use this information posted on here and came up with my own opinion, curious what others think. Appears that most the others listed on here are either canceled/not happening or still a couple years away. I have no idea when Kuiper is ready & how they will prioritize their massive amount of launches they have booked. https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1hq0gl1/2025_launch_manifest/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_buttonJanuary 2025 - Pathfinder - Blue Ring - Maiden Flight - 1st NSSLH1 2025 - EscapadeH1 2025 - KuiperH1 2025 - Pathfinder 2 - Blue Ring & HLS testing & 2nd NSSLH2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBirdH2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBirdH2 2025 - KuiperH2 2025 - Blue Moon Mark I Lunar LanderThey have too, but not schedule yet:- Eutelsat- Telesat- Mu Space (doubt)- Sky Perfect JSAThttps://www.geekwire.com/2018/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-strikes-satellite-launch-deal-japans-sky-perfect-jsat/
This manifest is very far out of date.Do we have any good idea on when the second flight is?
We did it! Orbital. Great night for Team Blue. On to spring and trying again on the landing. (Here is another view!)