Is the lack of launches due to lack of customer interest (ready to fly but no takers) or lack of Blue Origin readiness (lots of interest but not ready to fly yet)?
Quote from: Slarty1080 on 01/19/2019 02:59 pmIs the lack of launches due to lack of customer interest (ready to fly but no takers) or lack of Blue Origin readiness (lots of interest but not ready to fly yet)?As usual with new launchers, vast majority of the market shows little interest until it has actually flown at least once or twice. Salespeople have to reaaaally work on those first contracts - usually with hefty discounts.
NASA awards Blue Origin with a launch service contract for its New Glenn rocket, "with an ordering period through June 2025 and an overall period of performance through December 2027."
Dec. 16, 2020CONTRACT RELEASE C20-033NASA Awards Launch Services Contract to Blue Origin for New Glenn Launch ServicesNASA has awarded a NASA Launch Services (NLS) II contract to Blue Origin and their New Glenn launch service in accordance with the contract’s on-ramp provision. The New Glenn launch service will be available to NASA’s Launch Services Program (LSP) to use for future missions in accordance with the on-ramp provision of NLS II. The NLS II is a multiple-supplier, multiple-award, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract vehicle with an ordering period through June 2025 and an overall period of performance through December 2027. Each supplier that is a part of NLS II has its own individual contract with LSP. The NLS II on-ramp provision provides an opportunity annually for new launch service providers to be added as a potential supplier and to compete for future NASA missions. The on-ramp provision also allows existing NLS II launch service providers to introduce launch vehicles not currently on its NLS II contract.NLS II contractors must have the ability to successfully launch and deliver a payload to orbit using a domestic launch service capable of placing, at minimum, a 250 kg (551 lb.) payload into a 200 km (124 mile) circular orbit at an inclination of 28.5 degrees.The NLS II contracts support the goals and objectives of the agency's Science Mission Directorate, Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate, and the Space Technology Mission Directorate. Under the contract, NASA can also provide launch services to other government agencies, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.For more information about NASA’s Launch Services Program, visit:https://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/launchingrockets/index.html-end-
The context here is that, while there isn't money attached to this specific contract award, it opens the door to Blue Origin bidding New Glenn on future NASA missions under the Launch Services Program.
NEWS DEC 16, 2020NASA SELECTS BLUE ORIGIN’S NEW GLENN ROCKET FOR LAUNCH SERVICES CATALOGToday, NASA awarded Blue Origin a NASA Launch Services II (NLS II) Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract to launch planetary, Earth observation, exploration, and scientific satellites for the agency aboard New Glenn, Blue Origin’s orbital reusable launch vehicle. The contract allows Blue Origin to compete for missions through Launch Service Task Orders issued by NASA. Project managers at NASA Centers around the country can now design spacecraft to take advantage of New Glenn’s unique seven-meter fairing and heavy-lift performance for a broad range of missions. “We are proud to be in NASA’s launch services catalog and look forward to providing reliable launches for future NASA missions aboard New Glenn for years to come. The award builds on Blue Origin’s existing partnership with NASA and will advance science and exploration to benefit Earth,” said Jarrett Jones, senior vice president, New Glenn, Blue Origin. New Glenn is a single-configuration, operationally reusable heavy-lift launch vehicle powered by seven BE-4 liquefied natural gas rocket engines. The vehicle’s seven-meter fairing provides more than double the usable volume of any existing launch vehicle.
NASA has awarded Blue Origin "a task order" to provide launch service for the agency’s Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) mission.ESCAPADE will launch on Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket from SLC-36. Launch is targeted for late 2024.
Feb 9, 2023CONTRACT RELEASE C23-008NASA Selects Blue Origin to Launch Mars’ Magnetosphere Study MissionNASA has awarded Blue Origin, LLC of Kent, Washington a task order to provide launch service for the agency’s Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) mission as part of the agency's Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) launch services contract.ESCAPADE will launch on Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket from Space Launch Complex-36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. Launch is targeted for late 2024. Blue Origin is one of 13 companies NASA selected for VADR contracts in 2022. NASA’s Launch Services Program, based at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, manages the VADR contracts. As part of VADR, the fixed-price indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contracts have a five-year ordering period with a maximum total value of $300 million across all contracts. ESCAPADE will study Mars’ magnetosphere – the magnetized area of space around the planet – using two identical small spacecraft, which will provide simultaneous two-point observations. The spacecraft will help provide researchers a better understanding of how the magnetosphere interacts with the solar wind, and how energy and plasma enter and leave the magnetosphere. Each satellite will carry three instruments: a magnetometer for measuring magnetic field, an electrostatic analyzer to measure ions and electrons, and a Langmuir probe for measuring plasma density and solar extreme ultraviolet flux.It will take ESCAPADE about 11 months to arrive at Mars after leaving Earth’s orbit, where both spacecraft will spend several months adjusting their orbits before they are in position to best capture data about the magnetosphere. Studying different magnetospheres gives scientists a better understanding of space weather, which can protect astronauts and satellites both as they orbit Earth and explore the solar system. ESCAPADE is part of the NASA Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration program.Building on NASA's previous procurement efforts to foster development of new launch vehicles for NASA payloads, VADR provides FAA-licensed commercial launch services for payloads that can tolerate higher risk. By using a lower level of mission assurance, and commercial best practices for launching rockets, these highly flexible contracts help broaden access to space through lower launch costs.-end-
We’re honored to have been selected by @NASA_LSP to launch the ESCAPADE science mission on #NewGlenn. With ESCAPADE, NASA will study Mars’ magnetosphere. Learn more:
NEWS | FEB 9, 2023NASA Awards Mars Science Mission Launch to Blue Origin’s New GlennToday, NASA’s Launch Services Program (LSP) awarded Blue Origin’s New Glenn the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) contract. ESCAPADE is part of the NASA Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration (SIMPLEx) program; it is a dual spacecraft mission to study Mars’ magnetosphere.ESCAPADE is a twin-spacecraft Class D mission that will study solar wind energy transfer through Mars’ unique hybrid magnetosphere. Providing launch service for ESCAPADE is a task order under NASA's Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) launch services contract. Blue Origin was on-ramped to the NASA VADR launch services Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract on January 26, 2022, with a five-year period of performance.“ESCAPADE follows a long tradition of NASA Mars science and exploration missions, and we’re thrilled NASA’s Launch Services Program has selected New Glenn to launch the instruments that will study Mars’ magnetosphere,” said Jarrett Jones, senior vice president, New Glenn, Blue Origin.
https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1623822745816518657QuoteWe’re honored to have been selected by @NASA_LSP to launch the ESCAPADE science mission on #NewGlenn. With ESCAPADE, NASA will study Mars’ magnetosphere. Learn more: https://www.blueorigin.com/news/nasa-awards-mars-science-mission-launch-to-blue-origin-new-glenn/QuoteNEWS | FEB 9, 2023NASA Awards Mars Science Mission Launch to Blue Origin’s New GlennToday, NASA’s Launch Services Program (LSP) awarded Blue Origin’s New Glenn the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) contract. ESCAPADE is part of the NASA Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration (SIMPLEx) program; it is a dual spacecraft mission to study Mars’ magnetosphere.ESCAPADE is a twin-spacecraft Class D mission that will study solar wind energy transfer through Mars’ unique hybrid magnetosphere. Providing launch service for ESCAPADE is a task order under NASA's Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) launch services contract. Blue Origin was on-ramped to the NASA VADR launch services Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract on January 26, 2022, with a five-year period of performance.“ESCAPADE follows a long tradition of NASA Mars science and exploration missions, and we’re thrilled NASA’s Launch Services Program has selected New Glenn to launch the instruments that will study Mars’ magnetosphere,” said Jarrett Jones, senior vice president, New Glenn, Blue Origin.
Does anybody know how much ESCAPADE will cost to launch?
Quote from: matthewkantar on 02/10/2023 01:39 amDoes anybody know how much ESCAPADE will cost to launch?Eric Berger estimates that "the rocket will be 2x or 3x the cost the spacecraft itself," although that's likely speculation. I found this paper which mentions that the total budget "including launch vehicle and all reserves" is $78.5 million, although this other article says that missions funded under the SIMPLEx program (as ESCAPADE is) have a cost cap of $55 million. Either way, take 2/3–3/4 of those numbers (based on Eric's estimate) and that's Blue Origin's piece of the pie.
I think you're mixing up cost and price, and it's not clear which one matthewkantar is asking for either.Berger's 2x or 3x is the cost of New Glenn (to Blue Origin), which he guessed in the past to be around $200M, thus 2x to 3x of the spacecraft cost which is around $55M. Of course if they can recover and reuse the first stage then the cost of the launch wouldn't be so high.The price Blue Origin bid to win this contract is likely significantly lower than this, my guess would be around $20M in order to beat the price of 2x 1-ton class LV launches (ESCAPADE is two spacecrafts, 90kg each, my guess is each one will need its own launch if you use 1-ton class LV).
Could this be a ride share? Seems like the payload is a featherweight.
Do you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions?
I mean to ask what NASA is paying BO for the launch. Cost was a poor choice of words.
NASA did not include the value of Blue Origin’s ESCAPADE launch contract in the press release, only saying that it falls under the $300 million VADR launch services program.I’ve asked the agency for the award’s value.Update from NASA:“Pricing provided in response to launch service task orders under VADR are competed in a closed environment and as such are considered proprietary to the indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract.”
Quote from: trimeta on 02/10/2023 03:22 amDo you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions? It's in NASA budget request.
Quote from: su27k on 02/10/2023 03:51 amQuote from: trimeta on 02/10/2023 03:22 amDo you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions? It's in NASA budget request.Doing a sum of the "Escape and Plasma Accel and Dynamics Exp" row gets me $68.9 million. Are you taking off $14 million for the launch vehicle?
Quote from: trimeta on 02/10/2023 04:03 amQuote from: su27k on 02/10/2023 03:51 amQuote from: trimeta on 02/10/2023 03:22 amDo you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions? It's in NASA budget request.Doing a sum of the "Escape and Plasma Accel and Dynamics Exp" row gets me $68.9 million. Are you taking off $14 million for the launch vehicle?Well since they just awarded the launch contract, any spending before today can't be for launch, so the total $48.7M from FY21 and FY22 would be for spacecraft for sure, that's already pretty close to the $55M cap.
Quote from: su27k on 02/10/2023 03:51 amQuote from: trimeta on 02/10/2023 03:22 amDo you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions? It's in NASA budget request.Launch costs wouldn’t be included in these mission allocations and budget requests and projections.It doesn’t appear possible to derive the budget for ESCAPADE from these numbers, partly because it doesn’t say if any spending preceded it (which someone here knows) but if the budget cap of $55M is assumed for design and construction, the money is almost all spent already. After this the budget goes into operations or storage costs early in FY ‘23, which is soon if not now.But by their own statements, NG won’t even debut in FY ‘24.How does this award work with this schedule?
Seems rather risky that NASA would award this to a rocket that has not launched yet by a company have has been to even LEO, like alone BEO. Does NASA have a backup if NG is not ready and has launched twice by later 2024? If they miss 2024 will they not have to wait until 2026? I am assuming they have to approve to NASA they can at least reach LEO twice before they are allowed to launch a NASA mission.
Quote from: AU1.52 on 02/10/2023 03:39 pmSeems rather risky that NASA would award this to a rocket that has not launched yet by a company have has been to even LEO, like alone BEO. Does NASA have a backup if NG is not ready and has launched twice by later 2024? If they miss 2024 will they not have to wait until 2026? I am assuming they have to approve to NASA they can at least reach LEO twice before they are allowed to launch a NASA mission.They awarded a SIMPLEx contract to Phantom, Cantrells new scam with the stolen stock images. This program isn't exactly the cream of the crop, it's a few million dollars on the off chance that someone actually manages to launch something. Every single SIMPLEx mission so far has been severely delayed or cancelled. It's like calling yourself a top-grade ISP because you made it onto the FCC subsidy list.
Also, another datapoint is NASA paying Rocket Lab $10 million for CAPSTONE, which included one interplanetary Photon and one Electron launch; ESCAPADE will include two interplanetary Photons and zero Electron launches. Of course, that's price, not cost (and it's pretty clear that Rocket Lab lost money on that contract), but it does make it seem like $55 million for two interplanetary Photons is a little high.
Updated story with the value of the award ($20 million), which NASA does not disclose yet is listed in a federal government database.
Blue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.
Quote from: Comga on 02/10/2023 05:14 amQuote from: su27k on 02/10/2023 03:51 amQuote from: trimeta on 02/10/2023 03:22 amDo you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions? It's in NASA budget request.Launch costs wouldn’t be included in these mission allocations and budget requests and projections.It doesn’t appear possible to derive the budget for ESCAPADE from these numbers, partly because it doesn’t say if any spending preceded it (which someone here knows) but if the budget cap of $55M is assumed for design and construction, the money is almost all spent already. After this the budget goes into operations or storage costs early in FY ‘23, which is soon if not now.But by their own statements, NG won’t even debut in FY ‘24.How does this award work with this schedule?So you know the future?
<snip>How NASA can award a launch contract for a probe that is nearing completion to a a company whose rocket is not only not qualified with successful launches, not only hasn’t started integrated testing, but hasn’t even had any completed stage moved out of the factory, one not likely to launch for a year or two?What is NASA’s process and criteria for the award?
Quote from: AU1.52 on 02/10/2023 03:39 pmSeems rather risky that NASA would award this to a rocket that has not launched yet by a company have has been to even LEO, like alone BEO. Does NASA have a backup if NG is not ready and has launched twice by later 2024? If they miss 2024 will they not have to wait until 2026? I am assuming they have to approve to NASA they can at least reach LEO twice before they are allowed to launch a NASA mission.You know NASA did the same thing with SpaceX, right? The Falcon 9 was very much a paper rocket on the drawing table when NASA gave a CRS award to SpaceX. Also, Falcon 1's third launch had a NASA payload on it, the first three launches were all failures.
Quote from: Comga on 02/11/2023 12:44 am<snip>How NASA can award a launch contract for a probe that is nearing completion to a a company whose rocket is not only not qualified with successful launches, not only hasn’t started integrated testing, but hasn’t even had any completed stage moved out of the factory, one not likely to launch for a year or two?What is NASA’s process and criteria for the award?If I don't know any better. It appears to be an attempt by NASA to quiet the WA congressional delegation by awarding a low value mission launch contract to Below Orbit.
I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!
Quote from: Robotbeat on 02/11/2023 04:34 pmI’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 02/11/2023 04:37 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 02/11/2023 04:34 pmI’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.It will.But when it does I suspect SX will drop their prices a lot. And still won’t make a loss. And when that happens…. “Gentlemen, start your lawyers”
NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 02/11/2023 04:37 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 02/11/2023 04:34 pmI’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.We say "when", but the road from here to there is pretty obscure.
Quote from: meekGee on 02/11/2023 07:07 pmNG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?
Quote from: meekGee on 02/11/2023 07:07 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 02/11/2023 04:37 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 02/11/2023 04:34 pmI’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. ...I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.We say "when", but the road from here to there is pretty obscure.Sigh. It seems I need to remember to put the <sardonic> tags in.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 02/11/2023 04:37 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 02/11/2023 04:34 pmI’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. ...I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.We say "when", but the road from here to there is pretty obscure.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 02/11/2023 04:34 pmI’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. ...I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.
I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. ...
Quote from: matthewkantar on 02/11/2023 07:39 pmQuote from: meekGee on 02/11/2023 07:07 pmNG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?That doesn't make it any less of an "if".It says NASA would like to encourage more providers, and I think everyone agrees with that sentiment.Also NG is the only thing out there that aims to be larger than an F9.
Quote from: meekGee on 02/11/2023 09:10 pmQuote from: matthewkantar on 02/11/2023 07:39 pmQuote from: meekGee on 02/11/2023 07:07 pmNG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?That doesn't make it any less of an "if".It says NASA would like to encourage more providers, and I think everyone agrees with that sentiment.Also NG is the only thing out there that aims to be larger than an F9.Terran-R does. Fully reusable payload supposed to be 20t. That is more than a F9 partially reusable payload.
".....New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."
New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."
Quote New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."What is Florida Today's citation for this claim?
"..Blue Origin is also slated to fly its 322-foot New Glenn rocket before the end of this year. Company founder Jeff Bezos sees it as the rocket that will build "a road to space," meaning it will need to fly dozens of times per year to not only deploy satellites, but transport future space station segments and more. New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..." https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2023/01/15/space-force-expecting-hundreds-of-florida-launches-in-coming-years/69799019007/
ESCAPADE abstract from LPSC 2023:https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2023/pdf/1108.pdf
Quote from: Vahe231991 on 02/10/2023 08:36 pmBlue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.Lets be honest about this, Blue is doing the launch for free basically.Its a simplex launch. Very tiny budget, and most of that budget was already spent. There is no way nasa will be paying even break even costs for a new glenn launch for a simplex payload.I think this is a great partnership. The payload was stranded on earth, so NASA gets a mars launch for practically free, and Blue gets all the great publicity of a mars launch.
Quote from: deadman1204 on 02/14/2023 09:00 pmQuote from: Vahe231991 on 02/10/2023 08:36 pmBlue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.Lets be honest about this, Blue is doing the launch for free basically.Its a simplex launch. Very tiny budget, and most of that budget was already spent. There is no way nasa will be paying even break even costs for a new glenn launch for a simplex payload.I think this is a great partnership. The payload was stranded on earth, so NASA gets a mars launch for practically free, and Blue gets all the great publicity of a mars launch.TIL $20 million is "practically free" It's also likely to be a rideshare.
Quote from: matthewkantar on 02/11/2023 07:39 pmQuote from: meekGee on 02/11/2023 07:07 pmNG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?It strongly depends on how you define "competitor". By the time NG flies, they'll have spent the better part of $5 billion* developing it. Unless NG sells for $400 million a launch, it will be more a sign of Jeff Bezos still being happy to throw money at playing in space rather than someone actually managing to build something that can stand up to F9 commercially.SpaceX has barely managed to eke out $3 billion/yr in launch business. If NG can take half of that, and make a massive 30% margin, it would only pay back its development cost in 10 years with zero interest. And it took enabling add-ons like Dragon to get the most profitable F9 business.* It's been six years since Bezos confirmed he is putting $1 billion a year into Blue and they are realistically two years away from a real launch cadence. Not all of that is going into NG, but combined with income from subsidies and development contracts, $5 billion is a decent guess.
Eutelsat now says it has no specific launch date slated for New Glenn, stating: “New Glenn is part of our portfolio of launch options and will be activated based on our future needs taking into consideration industry conditions at the time. Our launch contract with Blue Origin for a Eutelsat unspecified satellite on a New Glenn rocket is still current. It will help to diversify options for access to space.”
I’m trying to do a very overdue update of the NG launch manifest. It’s not pretty!Kupier and ESCAPADE currently seem to be the most likely missions. Of the others:Eutelsat said in April 2022:QuoteEutelsat now says it has no specific launch date slated for New Glenn, stating: “New Glenn is part of our portfolio of launch options and will be activated based on our future needs taking into consideration industry conditions at the time. Our launch contract with Blue Origin for a Eutelsat unspecified satellite on a New Glenn rocket is still current. It will help to diversify options for access to space.”OneWeb is busy launching with ISRO and SpaceX. It seems unlikely NG will be available before OneWeb has their initial constellation on orbit?mu Space still hasn’t launched anything to orbit - not clear if they ever will.No more news from SKY Perfect JSAT about NG in the last few years. Perhaps just keep a watching brief like Eutelsat?As of last November, Telesat still seemed to be arranging financing for their LEO constellation.So very little of substance currently on the NG manifest. Presumably needs a firmer and closer launch date to progress any launch agreements.
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 02/18/2023 01:40 pmI’m trying to do a very overdue update of the NG launch manifest. It’s not pretty!Kupier and ESCAPADE currently seem to be the most likely missions. Of the others:Eutelsat said in April 2022:QuoteEutelsat now says it has no specific launch date slated for New Glenn, stating: “New Glenn is part of our portfolio of launch options and will be activated based on our future needs taking into consideration industry conditions at the time. Our launch contract with Blue Origin for a Eutelsat unspecified satellite on a New Glenn rocket is still current. It will help to diversify options for access to space.”OneWeb is busy launching with ISRO and SpaceX. It seems unlikely NG will be available before OneWeb has their initial constellation on orbit?mu Space still hasn’t launched anything to orbit - not clear if they ever will.No more news from SKY Perfect JSAT about NG in the last few years. Perhaps just keep a watching brief like Eutelsat?As of last November, Telesat still seemed to be arranging financing for their LEO constellation.So very little of substance currently on the NG manifest. Presumably needs a firmer and closer launch date to progress any launch agreements.For, me, SpaceX has demonstrated that a launch company succeeds when it has a customer with infinite demand that is willing to just use otherwise unsold launch capacity. That's what Starlink does for SpaceX. BO apparently has such a customer: Kuiper. Therefore, if they can execute and if Kuiper is successful, they can succeed. They will need to keep their prices competitive with SpaceX to win some higher-priority business also, of course, and the big question is the price of a Starship launch. We'll see. What this means is that forward-looking tentative manifests are probably very uncertain.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 02/18/2023 02:39 pmFor, me, SpaceX has demonstrated that a launch company succeeds when it has a customer with infinite demand that is willing to just use otherwise unsold launch capacity. Necessary condition, but not sufficient.SpaceX already had a successful working heavy lifer before Starlink started using its services. Not twice-a-week successful, but still.NG has Kuiper. But Kuiper so far doesn't have NG, and is itself very late to the game.The lesson about F9 and Starlink is about vision, execution, and being first to market.
For, me, SpaceX has demonstrated that a launch company succeeds when it has a customer with infinite demand that is willing to just use otherwise unsold launch capacity.
Col. Douglas Pentecost of the US Air Force says the military recently signed a "three-flight" option with Blue Origin for certification of the New Glenn rocket. This means three flights, but less data than ULA had to provide for a two-flight certification.
SpaceX also used a "three-flight" certification for the Falcon rockets, he said. There are also six-flight and 14-flight options, apparently, the latter of which essentially requires no data at all for certification for DOD launches.
Team members from @BlueOrigin met with LSP today to discuss New Glenn! 🚀They presented multiple rocket models to the NASA team, including a seven-foot version that will be on display in the LSP lobby located in the Neil A. Armstrong Operations and Checkout Building.
LSP Engineers are working to certify New Glenn for the launch of NASA's ESCAPADE mission. Named after NASA astronaut John Glenn, Blue Origin describes it as a single configuration heavy-lift launch vehicle with a reusable first stage capable of carrying people and payloads.
Cornell: not going to say where the NASA launch contract for ESCAPADE fits into New Glenn manifest beyond that it will be an early mission and we'll be ready. [NASA planning late 2024 launch for ESCAPADE.]
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1636094802004680704QuoteCornell: not going to say where the NASA launch contract for ESCAPADE fits into New Glenn manifest beyond that it will be an early mission and we'll be ready. [NASA planning late 2024 launch for ESCAPADE.]
At the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) meeting today, Rob Lillis, PI for the ESCAPADE mission, says the launch window for it is Aug. 6-15, 2024. He believes Blue Origin's New Glenn "likely will be ready" for launching the mission.
He said he was initially concerned that New Glenn hans't launched yet, but after touring Blue's facilities at the Cape he is much less concerned. (Must have been one helluva tour.)
I wouldn’t bet on that …
"He confirmed the $20 million price for the New Glenn, which is “massively oversized” for ESCAPADE."See https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/
“NASA didn’t promise us a ride to Mars ..."the current launch window ... Aug. 6 through 15 of 2024 ... “is approximate and provisional” and that options for the mission’s trajectory are still being studied. The launch will place the spacecraft into an Earth orbit with a period of about 1.6 days. ... After launch, the spacecraft will boost themselves into higher Earth orbits before performing a maneuver to go to Mars. “They were able to bid what they knew the price was going to be, regardless of the cost to them.”
International regulators give Iran new extension for years-delayed satellite for 43.5 east; Blue Origin launch in 2024written by Peter B. De SeldingJuly 5, 2023TUPPER LAKE, NY — The Iranian government’s attempt to place a national telecommunications satellite into geostationary orbit at 43.5 degrees east has been a multi-year struggle against bad decisions, bad timing and international sanctions.It’s still not over, but international regulators have now given Iran yet another extension of the deadline by which it must place a satellite at the slot […]
I’ve not seen any other media reports of Blue Origin launching an Iranian satellite:https://www.spaceintelreport.com/international-regulators-grant-iran-new-extension-for-years-delayed-satellite-for-43-5-east-blue-origin-launch-in-2024/QuoteInternational regulators give Iran new extension for years-delayed satellite for 43.5 east; Blue Origin launch in 2024written by Peter B. De SeldingJuly 5, 2023TUPPER LAKE, NY — The Iranian government’s attempt to place a national telecommunications satellite into geostationary orbit at 43.5 degrees east has been a multi-year struggle against bad decisions, bad timing and international sanctions.It’s still not over, but international regulators have now given Iran yet another extension of the deadline by which it must place a satellite at the slot […]
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 07/06/2023 07:57 pm.....It's part of the long-running effort by the US state department to deny Iran access to space.
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Telesat buys SpaceX launches for Lightspeed internet satellitesPUBLISHED MON, SEP 11 202310:51 AM EDTthumbnailMichael Sheetz@IN/MICHAELJSHEETZ@THESHEETZTWEETZKEY POINTSElon Musk’s SpaceX signed a hefty deal with satellite operator Telesat.The Lightspeed missions will fly on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.Telesat still has a 2019 agreement in place with Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.
Telesat confirmed that despite the new F9 contract announced today, they’ll launch on NG as well:https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/telesat-buys-spacex-launches-for-lightspeed-internet-satellites.htmlQuoteTelesat buys SpaceX launches for Lightspeed internet satellitesPUBLISHED MON, SEP 11 202310:51 AM EDTthumbnailMichael Sheetz@IN/MICHAELJSHEETZ@THESHEETZTWEETZKEY POINTSElon Musk’s SpaceX signed a hefty deal with satellite operator Telesat.The Lightspeed missions will fly on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.Telesat still has a 2019 agreement in place with Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.
I wouldn't say Space X signed to launch the entire constellation. Even with their current launches 14 and maximum number of satellites per launch. they are still short of the planned number of satellites for the constellation.
Quote from: Purona on 09/11/2023 04:30 pmI wouldn't say Space X signed to launch the entire constellation. Even with their current launches 14 and maximum number of satellites per launch. they are still short of the planned number of satellites for the constellation.No, 198 sat constellation over 14 launches is an average of about 14 sats per launch on F9, max stated per launch is 18. But this is the New Glenn thread.
I wouldn't say Space X signed to launch the entire constellation.
The 14 missions appear to be more than enough to launch Telesat's first batch of 198 Lightspeed satellites, and the company said the launches will enable global service, which requires 156 spacecraft in orbit, to begin in 2027.
Even with their current launches 14 and maximum number of satellites per launch. they are still short of the planned number of satellites for the constellation.
“We remain in close contact with Blue Origin and believe in time they will become a valued launch provider, and we think it is important to have optionality in our launch services,” a Telesat spokesperson told Ars....“We never envisioned Relativity as part of our initial constellation deployment,” the Telesat spokesperson said. “Instead, we can leverage their capability for single satellite deployments to either replace a satellite or add additional capacity to the network.”
their intended constellation size is 298 their initial deployment is 198
Quote from: Purona on 09/12/2023 10:27 amtheir intended constellation size is 298 their initial deployment is 198In my response to you above I actually linked the Telesat press release saying they were buying 198 satellites from MDA. Are you not believing Telesat?
Many sources reported that NASA’s EscaPADE (two spacecraft totaling about 1 tonne wet) will launch on New Glenn for $20M (e.g. up-thread or https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/). The Main Engine Cutoff podcast (https://mainenginecutoff.com/podcast/240 starting 15:15 in) additionally made vague claims that they heard about other $20M New Glenn launches. Do we have any good info on whether $20M is a special price for this unusually small payload or the usual price for New Glenn launches?Edit: maybe $20M is for RTLS reuse and barge landings will be more?
From the above interview:Quote.@JeffBezos re: New Glenn in conversation with @lexfridman:"Very optimistic" for a first launch in 2024, but unsure what payload it will carry. Possibly EscaPADE. "We also have other things that might go on that first mission.""Extremely nervous" about first launch.https://twitter.com/johnkrausphotos/status/1735365667937722502Quote"Blue Origin needs to be much faster and it's one of the reasons I left my role as the CEO of Amazon a couple of years ago. I wanted to come in, and Blue Origin needs me right now."
.@JeffBezos re: New Glenn in conversation with @lexfridman:"Very optimistic" for a first launch in 2024, but unsure what payload it will carry. Possibly EscaPADE. "We also have other things that might go on that first mission.""Extremely nervous" about first launch.
"Blue Origin needs to be much faster and it's one of the reasons I left my role as the CEO of Amazon a couple of years ago. I wanted to come in, and Blue Origin needs me right now."
Here's my conversation with @jeffbezos, founder of Amazon and Blue Origin. This is his first time doing a long-form conversation of this kind, and it was an epic one.It's here on X in full & is up on YouTube, Spotify, and everywhere else.Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction0:24 - Texas ranch and childhood4:02 - Space exploration and rocket engineering16:36 - Physics26:10 - New Glenn rocket1:08:59 - Lunar program1:18:55 - Amazon1:36:16 - Principles1:54:56 - Productivity2:05:34 - Future of humanity
Which future NASA mission to be launched in the next 5-10 years, do you think can be contracted with the New Glenn?
Quote from: Tywin on 01/08/2024 12:54 pmWhich future NASA mission to be launched in the next 5-10 years, do you think can be contracted with the New Glenn?As far as I'm aware there are a few Explorer's program missions that don't have a LV assigned but these are small satellites that are usually rideshares or small sat launchers. JPSS-3 (2026) is another candidate that doesn't have a LV assigned. The next flagship mission would probably be Dragonfly but I'd think that'll be awarded soon and am not expecting New Glenn to win it. I could see them compete for DAVINCI though.
Quote from: AndrewM on 03/01/2024 01:54 amQuote from: Tywin on 01/08/2024 12:54 pmWhich future NASA mission to be launched in the next 5-10 years, do you think can be contracted with the New Glenn?As far as I'm aware there are a few Explorer's program missions that don't have a LV assigned but these are small satellites that are usually rideshares or small sat launchers. JPSS-3 (2026) is another candidate that doesn't have a LV assigned. The next flagship mission would probably be Dragonfly but I'd think that'll be awarded soon and am not expecting New Glenn to win it. I could see them compete for DAVINCI though.Yeahh DA Vinci, and Veritas they have a big opportunity...Maybe for the future Uranus Orbiter too...Other thing, Blue already have a agreement to launch Eutelsat satellites, and Oneweb belong to they now...Maybe some Oneweb satellites can be launched in New Glenn...[zubenelgenubi: I combined three immediately successive posts by Tywin into one.]
Quote from: Tywin on 02/10/2023 11:49 amQuote from: Comga on 02/10/2023 05:14 amQuote from: su27k on 02/10/2023 03:51 amQuote from: trimeta on 02/10/2023 03:22 amDo you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions? It's in NASA budget request.Launch costs wouldn’t be included in these mission allocations and budget requests and projections.It doesn’t appear possible to derive the budget for ESCAPADE from these numbers, partly because it doesn’t say if any spending preceded it (which someone here knows) but if the budget cap of $55M is assumed for design and construction, the money is almost all spent already. After this the budget goes into operations or storage costs early in FY ‘23, which is soon if not now.But by their own statements, NG won’t even debut in FY ‘24.How does this award work with this schedule?So you know the future? Apparently I do (And you should still stop being nasty. Even if you are insulted, which you were not.)FYI Next Spaceflight maintains a Manifest for New Glenn. Of course, there are still no dates other than NET months for the first two flights.
.@AST_SpaceMobile selects #NewGlenn to deliver next-generation BlueBird satellites to LEO:
NEWSNOV 14, 2024AST SpaceMobile Selects Blue Origin’s New Glenn Rocket to Deliver Next-Generation BlueBird Satellites to SpaceBlue Origin today announced a multi-launch agreement to deliver multiple next-generation Block 2 BlueBird satellites to low Earth orbit (LEO) on New Glenn. All launches will occur over a multi-year period from Blue Origin’s Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. AST SpaceMobile is building the first and only space-based cellular broadband network designed for both commercial and government applications. It will operate directly with everyday smartphones and allow seamless switching between terrestrial cell towers and satellite signals depending on location and coverage needs. “New Glenn’s performance and unprecedented capacity within its seven-meter fairing enables us to deploy more of our Block 2 BlueBird satellites in orbit, helping provide continuous cellular broadband service coverage across some of the most in-demand cellular markets globally,” said Abel Avellan, Founder, Chairman, and CEO, AST SpaceMobile. "It’s an honor to support AST SpaceMobile’s deployment of their next generation BlueBird satellites, which will expand connectivity across the globe and positively impact many lives,” said Dave Limp, CEO, Blue Origin. “New Glenn is purpose-built for these kinds of innovative and ambitious missions.” New Glenn stands more than 320 feet (98 meters) tall and is named after John Glenn, the first person to orbit Earth. Its seven-meter fairing enables twice the payload volume of any five-meter class commercial launch system. The vehicle’s reusable first stage is designed for a minimum of 25 missions and is powered by seven Blue Origin BE-4 engines, the most powerful liquefied natural gas (LNG)-fueled, oxygen-rich staged combustion engine ever flown. Its second stage is powered by two BE-3U engines. Each BE-3U generates 160,000 lbf of thrust in vacuum. Blue Origin also manufactures BE-7 engines for its Blue Moon lunar landers and New Shepard’s BE-3PM engine. New Glenn’s first launch is on track for this year.
Can we expect to see new signatures-contracts of the manifest of Blue, after NG-1 launch?For example AST Spacemobile, said they go to launch the GEN2 with new provider...
To those wondering:https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50349.140
Caleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.
https://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-gQuoteCaleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.
Caleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.
https://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-gQuoteCaleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.
Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.
Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.
https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1857171736925483059Quote.@AST_SpaceMobile selects #NewGlenn to deliver next-generation BlueBird satellites to LEO: https://www.blueorigin.com/news/ast-spacemobile-selects-blue-origin-new-glennQuoteNEWSNOV 14, 2024AST SpaceMobile Selects Blue Origin’s New Glenn Rocket to Deliver Next-Generation BlueBird Satellites to Space...New Glenn stands more than 320 feet (98 meters) tall and is named after John Glenn, the first person to orbit Earth. Its seven-meter fairing enables twice the payload volume of any five-meter class commercial launch system. ...
NEWSNOV 14, 2024AST SpaceMobile Selects Blue Origin’s New Glenn Rocket to Deliver Next-Generation BlueBird Satellites to Space...New Glenn stands more than 320 feet (98 meters) tall and is named after John Glenn, the first person to orbit Earth. Its seven-meter fairing enables twice the payload volume of any five-meter class commercial launch system. ...
They fixed it:"New Glenn stands more than 320 feet (98 meters) tall and is named after John Glenn, the first American to orbit Earth."
Quote from: sstli2 on 11/14/2024 10:25 pmhttps://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-gQuoteCaleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amQuote from: sstli2 on 11/14/2024 10:25 pmhttps://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-gQuoteCaleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.yeah sure, that is why Spacex launch in Falcon 9 instead FH...
Quote from: sstli2 on 11/15/2024 03:33 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.Always have been...
Quote from: Tywin on 11/16/2024 05:00 pmQuote from: sstli2 on 11/15/2024 03:33 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.Always have been...Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH. That window has since sailed...The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.
He said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).
Quote from: Tywin on 11/16/2024 04:59 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amQuote from: sstli2 on 11/14/2024 10:25 pmhttps://x.com/chenryspace/status/1857195681867255909?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-gQuoteCaleb Henry@ChenrySpaceNew AST SpaceMobile launch deets. Firm launches covering 45 sats, options up to 60.- Blue Origin/New Glenn launches carrying eight sats each - SpaceX for Falcon 9 carrying four sats each, and - ISRO for GSLV carrying what sounds like one satellite. All in 2025 & 2026.Carrying double the number of satellites versus Falcon 9 would make even as much as a $100M price tag quite competitive.Do you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Do you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.yeah sure, that is why Spacex launch in Falcon 9 instead FH...SpaceX uses F9 because:- They can use 3 pads instead of 1- Faster turn-aroundBut NG doesn't have fast turn-around or quick cadence, so for large payloads that don't fit F9, FH can (and probably does) beat NG on cost That said, cost is not everything. There's diversity, reliability, availability.The first is the main reason why they split the launches...
Quote from: meekGee on 11/17/2024 12:46 amQuote from: Tywin on 11/16/2024 05:00 pmQuote from: sstli2 on 11/15/2024 03:33 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.Always have been...Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH. That window has since sailed...The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.You sure? well the customer don't think the same...https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-leans-on-blue-origin-to-ramp-up-satellite-launches/QuoteHe said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).
Quote from: Tywin on 11/17/2024 01:46 amQuote from: meekGee on 11/17/2024 12:46 amQuote from: Tywin on 11/16/2024 05:00 pmQuote from: sstli2 on 11/15/2024 03:33 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.Always have been...Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH. That window has since sailed...The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.You sure? well the customer don't think the same...https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-leans-on-blue-origin-to-ramp-up-satellite-launches/QuoteHe said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).The window for NG to outcompete F9 is long long gone. That it just got a launch is hardly an indication of the opposite.NG will go up against both Falcon and Starship at the same time. Much less capable than a fully reusable Starship, much less mature than a 150/year F9, it's going to settle for scraps and diversity contracts like this one.
Quote from: meekGee on 11/17/2024 12:42 pmQuote from: Tywin on 11/17/2024 01:46 amQuote from: meekGee on 11/17/2024 12:46 amQuote from: Tywin on 11/16/2024 05:00 pmQuote from: sstli2 on 11/15/2024 03:33 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be reliably launching customer payloads before Starship? Maybe, if SpaceX prioritizes its specialized Starlink V2 Pez dispenser over the general-cargo Starship, but I (without hard data) think Starship wins.Yes. I see New Glenn in the most optimistic case 3 months and in the pessimistic case 6-8 months away from launching a customer payload. I see near zero chance of Starship launching an external customer payload in 2025.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/15/2024 01:51 amDo you think New Glenn will be cheaper than FH in the near term? FH may be more cost-effective than F9 for these satellites, strange as it seems.I believe Falcon Heavy is volume-constrained for constellation launches. If it is as cost-effective as you suggest, why do they not use it for Starlink?No doubt, Starship is the elephant in the room, but it appears there's some breathing room for New Glenn to ramp up before Starship is directly competing in the same markets.Always have been...Well if you go back far enough, NG was supposed to outcompete F9 and FH. That window has since sailed...The full Starship stack meanwhile is about to fly for the sixth time. The flights are only development flights (NG is supposed to hit the ground running) but that only speaks to the large increase in capability that Starship has.Those flights being tests is not indicative that NG has a window. It's indicative that it'll arrive at a world very different from the one it was conceived in.You sure? well the customer don't think the same...https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-leans-on-blue-origin-to-ramp-up-satellite-launches/QuoteHe said two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets carrying four Block 2 BlueBirds each would probably come next, followed by successive Blue Origin New Glenn rockets, which have a fairing big enough to deploy eight of the satellites at a time to low Earth orbit (LEO).The window for NG to outcompete F9 is long long gone. That it just got a launch is hardly an indication of the opposite.NG will go up against both Falcon and Starship at the same time. Much less capable than a fully reusable Starship, much less mature than a 150/year F9, it's going to settle for scraps and diversity contracts like this one.I think BO will get business from the "no SpaceX" customers, but who is going to hurt the most are the expendable launchers. I wouldn't be surprised to some F9 price cuts after NG launches, especially since they get most of their revenue from Starlink now.F9 at $39m is curtains for most other launchers, and probably still makes a 50% profit at those prices...
Blue Origin has several New Glenn vehicles in production and a full customer manifest. Customers include NASA, Amazon’s Project Kuiper, AST SpaceMobile, several telecommunications providers, and a mix of U.S. government customers. Blue Origin is certifying New Glenn with the U.S. Space Force for the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program to meet emerging national security objectives.
How many non-SpaceX customers will there be? Kuiper, some DoD diversity launches? And both are risky. Kuiper faces a huge uphill climb at funding levels that are high even for Amazon, and DoD diversity may be that much. And without volume, NG can't drop prices. It's going to be a very tough road, with lots of uncertainty.
I tried to use this information posted on here and came up with my own opinion, curious what others think. Appears that most the others listed on here are either canceled/not happening or still a couple years away. I have no idea when Kuiper is ready & how they will prioritize their massive amount of launches they have booked. https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1hq0gl1/2025_launch_manifest/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_buttonJanuary 2025 - Pathfinder - Blue Ring - Maiden Flight - 1st NSSLH1 2025 - EscapadeH1 2025 - KuiperH1 2025 - Pathfinder 2 - Blue Ring & HLS testing & 2nd NSSLH2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBirdH2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBirdH2 2025 - KuiperH2 2025 - Blue Moon Mark I Lunar Lander
Quote from: tottaway22 on 12/30/2024 10:27 pmI tried to use this information posted on here and came up with my own opinion, curious what others think. Appears that most the others listed on here are either canceled/not happening or still a couple years away. I have no idea when Kuiper is ready & how they will prioritize their massive amount of launches they have booked. https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1hq0gl1/2025_launch_manifest/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_buttonJanuary 2025 - Pathfinder - Blue Ring - Maiden Flight - 1st NSSLH1 2025 - EscapadeH1 2025 - KuiperH1 2025 - Pathfinder 2 - Blue Ring & HLS testing & 2nd NSSLH2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBirdH2 2025 - AST SpaceMobile BlueBirdH2 2025 - KuiperH2 2025 - Blue Moon Mark I Lunar LanderThey have too, but not schedule yet:- Eutelsat- Telesat- Mu Space (doubt)- Sky Perfect JSAThttps://www.geekwire.com/2018/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-strikes-satellite-launch-deal-japans-sky-perfect-jsat/
This manifest is very far out of date.Do we have any good idea on when the second flight is?
We did it! Orbital. Great night for Team Blue. On to spring and trying again on the landing. (Here is another view!)
