Author Topic: New Glenn Launch Manifest  (Read 37683 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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New Glenn Launch Manifest
« on: 01/19/2019 10:42 am »
This thread is for discussion and updates of Blue Origin’s New Glenn manifest. The best guess at the current manifest is in this (maintained) post. Although launches are still a way off, I’ve created the thread now as there isn’t an easy way currently to find info about the various planned NG launches.

I’ve based the format on gongora’s excellent SpaceX manifest. Clearly a lot of blanks initially but I’m sure it’ll fill out nearer the time.

Sites:
      C-36 = Cape Canaveral Air Force Station SLC-

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        Core   Ret- .                             .   Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTCS/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Sitesion
------------------- ------ ---  --------------------------  ---  -----  ----  ----
late 2023?SAmazon Kuiper 15+ launchesLEO?C-36.
NET 6 Aug 2024?SESCAPADE mission to MarsBEO?C-36.
--Status unknown:-- .......
202??SEutelsatGTO??C-36.
202??SOneWeb (5 launches of 80 sats each)MEO~12kC-36.
202??Smu Space??C-36.
202??SSKY Perfect JSAT??C-36.
2026??STelesat LEO constellationLEO?C-36.

Notes:
For status unknown launches see here.

Recent Edits:
Apr 11 2023  Added ESCAPADE NET date
Feb 18 2023  Tidied up long quiet launch announcements
Feb 10 2023  Added ESCAPADE & Kuiper
Jan 31 2019  Added Telesat LEO constellation
Jan 19 2019  Created thread

Please feel free to post comments and updates.
« Last Edit: 04/11/2023 08:14 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline Slarty1080

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #1 on: 01/19/2019 02:59 pm »
Is the lack of launches due to lack of customer interest (ready to fly but no takers) or lack of Blue Origin readiness (lots of interest but not ready to fly yet)?
My optimistic hope is that it will become cool to really think about things... rather than just doing reactive bullsh*t based on no knowledge (Brian Cox)

Offline Jarnis

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #2 on: 01/19/2019 04:18 pm »
Is the lack of launches due to lack of customer interest (ready to fly but no takers) or lack of Blue Origin readiness (lots of interest but not ready to fly yet)?

As usual with new launchers, vast majority of the market shows little interest until it has actually flown at least once or twice. Salespeople have to reaaaally work on those first contracts - usually with hefty discounts.
« Last Edit: 01/19/2019 04:19 pm by Jarnis »

Online Lemurion

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #3 on: 01/19/2019 04:58 pm »
Is the lack of launches due to lack of customer interest (ready to fly but no takers) or lack of Blue Origin readiness (lots of interest but not ready to fly yet)?

As usual with new launchers, vast majority of the market shows little interest until it has actually flown at least once or twice. Salespeople have to reaaaally work on those first contracts - usually with hefty discounts.


Yeah, I'm less worried about how small the number is than I am impressed at how large it is. Blue appears to have eight paid launches lined up before achieving orbit for the first time. That's no small accomplishment.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #4 on: 01/19/2019 05:09 pm »
Is the lack of launches due to lack of customer interest (ready to fly but no takers) or lack of Blue Origin readiness (lots of interest but not ready to fly yet)?

It is worth noting that SpaceX has 15 launches on the manifest for non-government customers. 8 commercial orders in the backlog is decent.

Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #5 on: 01/19/2019 08:31 pm »
I dunno...

Five are from oneWeb, and Weiler was not going to launch SpaceX even when the alternative is soyuz.

One is (whistle whistle)

So while 8 is nice, the main takeaway is that if oneWeb fades away and is not supported by Bezos, then NG has 2 real competitive sales.

Which is not bad for where it is right now...

Now all NG has to do is make an appearance.
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Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #6 on: 03/23/2020 08:01 pm »
Bump.

As OneWeb becomes predictably unviable and as talk of a rescue buy from Bezos becomes common, remember that OneWeb is NG's largest customer...
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #7 on: 12/16/2020 08:38 pm »
https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1339323449265807360

Quote
NASA awards Blue Origin with a launch service contract for its New Glenn rocket, "with an ordering period through June 2025 and an overall period of performance through December 2027."

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-to-blue-origin-for-new-glenn-launch-services

Quote
Dec. 16, 2020
CONTRACT RELEASE C20-033

NASA Awards Launch Services Contract to Blue Origin for New Glenn Launch Services

NASA has awarded a NASA Launch Services (NLS) II contract to Blue Origin and their New Glenn launch service in accordance with the contract’s on-ramp provision. The New Glenn launch service will be available to NASA’s Launch Services Program (LSP) to use for future missions in accordance with the on-ramp provision of NLS II. 

The NLS II is a multiple-supplier, multiple-award, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract vehicle with an ordering period through June 2025 and an overall period of performance through December 2027. Each supplier that is a part of NLS II has its own individual contract with LSP. The NLS II on-ramp provision provides an opportunity annually for new launch service providers to be added as a potential supplier and to compete for future NASA missions. The on-ramp provision also allows existing NLS II launch service providers to introduce launch vehicles not currently on its NLS II contract.

NLS II contractors must have the ability to successfully launch and deliver a payload to orbit using a domestic launch service capable of placing, at minimum, a 250 kg (551 lb.) payload into a 200 km (124 mile) circular orbit at an inclination of 28.5 degrees.

The NLS II contracts support the goals and objectives of the agency's Science Mission Directorate, Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate, and the Space Technology Mission Directorate. Under the contract, NASA can also provide launch services to other government agencies, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

For more information about NASA’s Launch Services Program, visit:

https://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/launchingrockets/index.html

-end-

Edit to add:

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1339325968691900418

Quote
The context here is that, while there isn't money attached to this specific contract award, it opens the door to Blue Origin bidding New Glenn on future NASA missions under the Launch Services Program.
« Last Edit: 12/16/2020 08:55 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #8 on: 12/16/2020 10:00 pm »
https://www.blueorigin.com/news/nasa-selects-new-glenn-for-launch-services-catalog

Quote
NEWS   DEC 16, 2020
NASA SELECTS BLUE ORIGIN’S NEW GLENN ROCKET FOR LAUNCH SERVICES CATALOG

Today, NASA awarded Blue Origin a NASA Launch Services II (NLS II) Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract to launch planetary, Earth observation, exploration, and scientific satellites for the agency aboard New Glenn, Blue Origin’s orbital reusable launch vehicle. The contract allows Blue Origin to compete for missions through Launch Service Task Orders issued by NASA. Project managers at NASA Centers around the country can now design spacecraft to take advantage of New Glenn’s unique seven-meter fairing and heavy-lift performance for a broad range of missions. 
     
“We are proud to be in NASA’s launch services catalog and look forward to providing reliable launches for future NASA missions aboard New Glenn for years to come. The award builds on Blue Origin’s existing partnership with NASA and will advance science and exploration to benefit Earth,” said Jarrett Jones, senior vice president, New Glenn, Blue Origin.

New Glenn is a single-configuration, operationally reusable heavy-lift launch vehicle powered by seven BE-4 liquefied natural gas rocket engines. The vehicle’s seven-meter fairing provides more than double the usable volume of any existing launch vehicle. 

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #9 on: 02/09/2023 10:12 pm »
https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1623821864488280065

Quote
NASA has awarded Blue Origin "a task order" to provide launch service for the agency’s Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) mission.

ESCAPADE will launch on Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket from SLC-36. Launch is targeted for late 2024.

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #10 on: 02/09/2023 10:14 pm »
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-selects-blue-origin-to-launch-mars-magnetosphere-study-mission

Quote
Feb 9, 2023
CONTRACT RELEASE C23-008

NASA Selects Blue Origin to Launch Mars’ Magnetosphere Study Mission

NASA has awarded Blue Origin, LLC of Kent, Washington a task order to provide launch service for the agency’s Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) mission as part of the agency's Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) launch services contract.

ESCAPADE will launch on Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket from Space Launch Complex-36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. Launch is targeted for late 2024. Blue Origin is one of 13 companies NASA selected for VADR contracts in 2022. NASA’s Launch Services Program, based at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, manages the VADR contracts. As part of VADR, the fixed-price indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contracts have a five-year ordering period with a maximum total value of $300 million across all contracts.

ESCAPADE will study Mars’ magnetosphere – the magnetized area of space around the planet – using two identical small spacecraft, which will provide simultaneous two-point observations. The spacecraft will help provide researchers a better understanding of how the magnetosphere interacts with the solar wind, and how energy and plasma enter and leave the magnetosphere. Each satellite will carry three instruments: a magnetometer for measuring magnetic field, an electrostatic analyzer to measure ions and electrons, and a Langmuir probe for measuring plasma density and solar extreme ultraviolet flux.

It will take ESCAPADE about 11 months to arrive at Mars after leaving Earth’s orbit, where both spacecraft will spend several months adjusting their orbits before they are in position to best capture data about the magnetosphere. Studying different magnetospheres gives scientists a better understanding of space weather, which can protect astronauts and satellites both as they orbit Earth and explore the solar system. ESCAPADE is part of the NASA Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration program.

Building on NASA's previous procurement efforts to foster development of new launch vehicles for NASA payloads, VADR provides FAA-licensed commercial launch services for payloads that can tolerate higher risk. By using a lower level of mission assurance, and commercial best practices for launching rockets, these highly flexible contracts help broaden access to space through lower launch costs.

-end-

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #11 on: 02/09/2023 10:23 pm »
https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1623822745816518657

Quote
We’re honored to have been selected by @NASA_LSP to launch the ESCAPADE science mission on #NewGlenn. With ESCAPADE, NASA will study Mars’ magnetosphere. Learn more:

https://www.blueorigin.com/news/nasa-awards-mars-science-mission-launch-to-blue-origin-new-glenn/

Quote
NEWS | FEB 9, 2023
NASA Awards Mars Science Mission Launch to Blue Origin’s New Glenn

Today, NASA’s Launch Services Program (LSP) awarded Blue Origin’s New Glenn the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) contract. ESCAPADE is part of the NASA Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration (SIMPLEx) program; it is a dual spacecraft mission to study Mars’ magnetosphere.

ESCAPADE is a twin-spacecraft Class D mission that will study solar wind energy transfer through Mars’ unique hybrid magnetosphere. Providing launch service for ESCAPADE is a task order under NASA's Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) launch services contract. Blue Origin was on-ramped to the NASA VADR launch services Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract on January 26, 2022, with a five-year period of performance.

“ESCAPADE follows a long tradition of NASA Mars science and exploration missions, and we’re thrilled NASA’s Launch Services Program has selected New Glenn to launch the instruments that will study Mars’ magnetosphere,” said Jarrett Jones, senior vice president, New Glenn, Blue Origin.
« Last Edit: 02/09/2023 10:30 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline DrHeywoodFloyd

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #12 on: 02/09/2023 11:00 pm »
https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1623822745816518657

Quote
We’re honored to have been selected by @NASA_LSP to launch the ESCAPADE science mission on #NewGlenn. With ESCAPADE, NASA will study Mars’ magnetosphere. Learn more:

https://www.blueorigin.com/news/nasa-awards-mars-science-mission-launch-to-blue-origin-new-glenn/

Quote
NEWS | FEB 9, 2023
NASA Awards Mars Science Mission Launch to Blue Origin’s New Glenn

Today, NASA’s Launch Services Program (LSP) awarded Blue Origin’s New Glenn the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) contract. ESCAPADE is part of the NASA Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration (SIMPLEx) program; it is a dual spacecraft mission to study Mars’ magnetosphere.

ESCAPADE is a twin-spacecraft Class D mission that will study solar wind energy transfer through Mars’ unique hybrid magnetosphere. Providing launch service for ESCAPADE is a task order under NASA's Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) launch services contract. Blue Origin was on-ramped to the NASA VADR launch services Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract on January 26, 2022, with a five-year period of performance.

“ESCAPADE follows a long tradition of NASA Mars science and exploration missions, and we’re thrilled NASA’s Launch Services Program has selected New Glenn to launch the instruments that will study Mars’ magnetosphere,” said Jarrett Jones, senior vice president, New Glenn, Blue Origin.

According to NASA for this project...
https://blogs.nasa.gov/escapade/
"... target launch readiness date of October 2024."

Offline matthewkantar

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #13 on: 02/10/2023 01:39 am »
Does anybody know how much ESCAPADE will cost to launch?

Offline trimeta

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #14 on: 02/10/2023 02:25 am »
Does anybody know how much ESCAPADE will cost to launch?

Eric Berger estimates that "the rocket will be 2x or 3x the cost the spacecraft itself," although that's likely speculation. I found this paper which mentions that the total budget "including launch vehicle and all reserves" is $78.5 million, although this other article says that missions funded under the SIMPLEx program (as ESCAPADE is) have a cost cap of $55 million. Either way, take 2/3–3/4 of those numbers (based on Eric's estimate) and that's Blue Origin's piece of the pie.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1623824852002959360

Offline matthewkantar

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #15 on: 02/10/2023 02:30 am »
Could this be a ride share? Seems like the payload is a featherweight.

Offline vaporcobra

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #16 on: 02/10/2023 02:47 am »
I'd bet a lot of money that Blue Origin wildly underpriced New Glenn to win this contract, so while I fully believe that the cost of the launch will be several times more than the spacecraft, I doubt NASA is paying more than a fraction of the true launch cost.

Offline su27k

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #17 on: 02/10/2023 02:49 am »
Does anybody know how much ESCAPADE will cost to launch?

Eric Berger estimates that "the rocket will be 2x or 3x the cost the spacecraft itself," although that's likely speculation. I found this paper which mentions that the total budget "including launch vehicle and all reserves" is $78.5 million, although this other article says that missions funded under the SIMPLEx program (as ESCAPADE is) have a cost cap of $55 million. Either way, take 2/3–3/4 of those numbers (based on Eric's estimate) and that's Blue Origin's piece of the pie.

I think you're mixing up cost and price, and it's not clear which one matthewkantar is asking for either.

Berger's 2x or 3x is the cost of New Glenn (to Blue Origin), which he guessed in the past to be around $200M, thus 2x to 3x of the spacecraft cost which is around $55M. Of course if they can recover and reuse the first stage then the cost of the launch wouldn't be so high.

The price Blue Origin bid to win this contract is likely significantly lower than this, my guess would be around $20M in order to beat the price of 2x 1-ton class LV launches (ESCAPADE is two spacecrafts, 90kg each, my guess is each one will need its own launch if you use 1-ton class LV).
« Last Edit: 02/10/2023 02:52 am by su27k »

Offline matthewkantar

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #18 on: 02/10/2023 03:15 am »
I mean to ask what NASA is paying BO for the launch. Cost was a poor choice of words.

Offline trimeta

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #19 on: 02/10/2023 03:22 am »
I think you're mixing up cost and price, and it's not clear which one matthewkantar is asking for either.

Berger's 2x or 3x is the cost of New Glenn (to Blue Origin), which he guessed in the past to be around $200M, thus 2x to 3x of the spacecraft cost which is around $55M. Of course if they can recover and reuse the first stage then the cost of the launch wouldn't be so high.

The price Blue Origin bid to win this contract is likely significantly lower than this, my guess would be around $20M in order to beat the price of 2x 1-ton class LV launches (ESCAPADE is two spacecrafts, 90kg each, my guess is each one will need its own launch if you use 1-ton class LV).

Do you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions? Since it's not necessarily clear that NASA is fully going up to the price cap in this case, nor that $55 million is just for the spacecraft and doesn't include the launch. (And of course, the SIMPLEx price cap would be price, not cost, anyway.)

Although I do note that the discrepancy between the $55 million SIMPLEx limit and the $78.5 million budget I found in that paper would be explained by the launch costing NASA around $20 million.

Also, another datapoint is NASA paying Rocket Lab $10 million for CAPSTONE, which included one interplanetary Photon and one Electron launch; ESCAPADE will include two interplanetary Photons and zero Electron launches. Of course, that's price, not cost (and it's pretty clear that Rocket Lab lost money on that contract), but it does make it seem like $55 million for two interplanetary Photons is a little high.
« Last Edit: 02/10/2023 03:23 am by trimeta »

Offline Conexion Espacial

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #20 on: 02/10/2023 03:22 am »
Could this be a ride share? Seems like the payload is a featherweight.
It could be, it will depend on the launch trajectory as the two spacecraft will be boosted by Rocket Lab's Photon spacecraft to Mars, so the New Glenn rocket may leave them in a high orbit with other payloads.
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Offline su27k

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #21 on: 02/10/2023 03:51 am »
Do you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions?

It's in NASA budget request.

Offline su27k

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #22 on: 02/10/2023 03:53 am »
I mean to ask what NASA is paying BO for the launch. Cost was a poor choice of words.

Unfortunately NASA refuses to disclose the price:

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1623824331502415872

Quote
NASA did not include the value of Blue Origin’s ESCAPADE launch contract in the press release, only saying that it falls under the $300 million VADR launch services program.

I’ve asked the agency for the award’s value.



Update from NASA:

“Pricing provided in response to launch service task orders under VADR are competed in a closed environment and as such are considered proprietary to the indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract.”

Offline trimeta

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #23 on: 02/10/2023 04:03 am »
Do you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions?

It's in NASA budget request.
Doing a sum of the "Escape and Plasma Accel and Dynamics Exp" row gets me $68.9 million. Are you taking off $14 million for the launch vehicle?

Offline su27k

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #24 on: 02/10/2023 04:16 am »
Do you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions?

It's in NASA budget request.
Doing a sum of the "Escape and Plasma Accel and Dynamics Exp" row gets me $68.9 million. Are you taking off $14 million for the launch vehicle?

Well since they just awarded the launch contract, any spending before today can't be for launch, so the total $48.7M from FY21 and FY22 would be for spacecraft for sure, that's already pretty close to the $55M cap.

Offline trimeta

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #25 on: 02/10/2023 04:20 am »
Do you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions?

It's in NASA budget request.
Doing a sum of the "Escape and Plasma Accel and Dynamics Exp" row gets me $68.9 million. Are you taking off $14 million for the launch vehicle?

Well since they just awarded the launch contract, any spending before today can't be for launch, so the total $48.7M from FY21 and FY22 would be for spacecraft for sure, that's already pretty close to the $55M cap.

This is all the amount of money NASA is paying to Rocket Lab, though: price, not cost. So we still don't know what the internal cost is (which, as you noted earlier, is different from price). And if we take Eric's comment to specifically be about cost, then we're back to square one with no info.

Online Comga

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #26 on: 02/10/2023 05:14 am »
Do you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions?

It's in NASA budget request.
Launch costs wouldn’t be included in these mission allocations and budget requests and projections.
It doesn’t appear possible to derive the budget for ESCAPADE from these numbers, partly because it doesn’t say if any spending preceded it (which someone here knows) but if the budget cap of $55M is assumed for design and construction, the money is almost all spent already.  After this the budget goes into operations  or storage costs early in FY ‘23, which is soon if not now.
But by their own statements, NG won’t even debut in FY ‘24.
How does this award work with this schedule?
« Last Edit: 02/10/2023 05:15 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Tywin

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #27 on: 02/10/2023 11:49 am »
Do you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions?

It's in NASA budget request.
Launch costs wouldn’t be included in these mission allocations and budget requests and projections.
It doesn’t appear possible to derive the budget for ESCAPADE from these numbers, partly because it doesn’t say if any spending preceded it (which someone here knows) but if the budget cap of $55M is assumed for design and construction, the money is almost all spent already.  After this the budget goes into operations  or storage costs early in FY ‘23, which is soon if not now.
But by their own statements, NG won’t even debut in FY ‘24.
How does this award work with this schedule?


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Offline AU1.52

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #28 on: 02/10/2023 03:39 pm »
Seems rather risky that NASA would award this to a rocket that has not launched yet by a company have has been to even LEO, like alone BEO. Does NASA have a backup if NG is not ready and has launched twice by later 2024? If they miss 2024 will they not have to wait until 2026? I am assuming they have to approve to NASA they can at least reach LEO twice before they are allowed to launch a NASA mission.

Offline Tomness

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #29 on: 02/10/2023 03:48 pm »
Seems rather risky that NASA would award this to a rocket that has not launched yet by a company have has been to even LEO, like alone BEO. Does NASA have a backup if NG is not ready and has launched twice by later 2024? If they miss 2024 will they not have to wait until 2026? I am assuming they have to approve to NASA they can at least reach LEO twice before they are allowed to launch a NASA mission.

if its a category III mission this is perfectly acceptable for this rocket, of course they have back ups. You do want give a new guys a chance. they have been in the game along time and know how do paper work well and can sign off on risk.

Offline niwax

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #30 on: 02/10/2023 04:07 pm »
Seems rather risky that NASA would award this to a rocket that has not launched yet by a company have has been to even LEO, like alone BEO. Does NASA have a backup if NG is not ready and has launched twice by later 2024? If they miss 2024 will they not have to wait until 2026? I am assuming they have to approve to NASA they can at least reach LEO twice before they are allowed to launch a NASA mission.

They awarded a SIMPLEx contract to Phantom, Cantrells new scam with the stolen stock images. This program isn't exactly the cream of the crop, it's a few million dollars on the off chance that someone actually manages to launch something. Every single SIMPLEx mission so far has been severely delayed or cancelled. It's like calling yourself a top-grade ISP because you made it onto the FCC subsidy list.
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Offline trimeta

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #31 on: 02/10/2023 04:18 pm »
Seems rather risky that NASA would award this to a rocket that has not launched yet by a company have has been to even LEO, like alone BEO. Does NASA have a backup if NG is not ready and has launched twice by later 2024? If they miss 2024 will they not have to wait until 2026? I am assuming they have to approve to NASA they can at least reach LEO twice before they are allowed to launch a NASA mission.

They awarded a SIMPLEx contract to Phantom, Cantrells new scam with the stolen stock images. This program isn't exactly the cream of the crop, it's a few million dollars on the off chance that someone actually manages to launch something. Every single SIMPLEx mission so far has been severely delayed or cancelled. It's like calling yourself a top-grade ISP because you made it onto the FCC subsidy list.

By SIMPLEx do you mean VADR? Since that's the contract mentioned in this press release from Phantom Space. And it seems like although the contract to Rocket Lab to build ESCAPADE was under SIMPLEx, the contract to Blue Origin to fly it is under VADR.

(Although note that, for example, the contract to Rocket Lab to fly TROPICS was VADR too, so the program is more about small/rideshare launch in general, not necessarily promoting up-and-coming companies.)

Offline whitelancer64

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #32 on: 02/10/2023 05:27 pm »
Seems rather risky that NASA would award this to a rocket that has not launched yet by a company have has been to even LEO, like alone BEO. Does NASA have a backup if NG is not ready and has launched twice by later 2024? If they miss 2024 will they not have to wait until 2026? I am assuming they have to approve to NASA they can at least reach LEO twice before they are allowed to launch a NASA mission.

You know NASA did the same thing with SpaceX, right?  The Falcon 9 was very much a paper rocket on the drawing table when NASA gave a CRS award to SpaceX.

Also, Falcon 1's third launch had a NASA payload on it, the first three launches were all failures.
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Offline TrevorMonty

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #33 on: 02/10/2023 05:39 pm »




Also, another datapoint is NASA paying Rocket Lab $10 million for CAPSTONE, which included one interplanetary Photon and one Electron launch; ESCAPADE will include two interplanetary Photons and zero Electron launches. Of course, that's price, not cost (and it's pretty clear that Rocket Lab lost money on that contract), but it does make it seem like $55 million for two interplanetary Photons is a little high.


University of California, Berkeley is lead on this project with RL being contracted for design, build and most likely mission control.
Most $55M goes Berkeley who pay RL out of it.
$55M is for complete mission except launch. Design, build and mission control for spacecraft for set period. These missions typically last lot longer than expected which means NASA will pay more for  mission control in long run.

For interplanetary mission with 2 spacecraft $55M is cheap compared to typical NASA missions. If successful NASA will have access to proven low cost interplanetary space craft they can use on other missions.


Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #34 on: 02/10/2023 06:32 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1624128654119735302

Quote
Updated story with the value of the award ($20 million), which NASA does not disclose yet is listed in a federal government database.

https://spacenews.com/blue-origin-wins-first-nasa-business-for-new-glenn/

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #35 on: 02/10/2023 08:36 pm »
Blue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.

Offline DrHeywoodFloyd

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #36 on: 02/10/2023 11:52 pm »
Blue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.
This is good, but two issues for me:
1. Delivery of of the ocean landing platform:

When?

2. All up testing sub system component of the seven BE-4 engines:

Will this be done? If No, why not? If yes, when? What is happening with Test Stand 4670?



Offline matthewkantar

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #37 on: 02/11/2023 12:25 am »
If initial lunches are done with light payloads and plenty of margin, maybe they can RTLS until a floating pad is ready. SpaceX had a bit of an uphill climb getting permission to RTLS, it may be a little less of a hill now that returns to land seem routine.

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #38 on: 02/11/2023 12:44 am »
Do you have a source for the spacecraft cost being $55 million, other than that being the price cap for SIMPLEx missions?

It's in NASA budget request.
Launch costs wouldn’t be included in these mission allocations and budget requests and projections.
It doesn’t appear possible to derive the budget for ESCAPADE from these numbers, partly because it doesn’t say if any spending preceded it (which someone here knows) but if the budget cap of $55M is assumed for design and construction, the money is almost all spent already.  After this the budget goes into operations  or storage costs early in FY ‘23, which is soon if not now.
But by their own statements, NG won’t even debut in FY ‘24.
How does this award work with this schedule?

So you know the future?  ::)
Stop being nasty
Highlight ALL the relevant quote, like I have done.
That’s what Blue says, not me
And no, I am not going to find it for you.
It was in one of the Blue Origin threads a few days ago
But again, it’s an ad hominem attack, picking at me, rather than my message.  You didn’t even take the time to discuss the relevant issue.

It’s like the fools screaming that a 2X estimate of Blue’s US government revenue constitutes heinous libel.  The error doesn’t impact the main point.
How NASA can award a launch contract for a probe that is nearing completion to a a company whose rocket is not only not qualified with successful launches, not only hasn’t started integrated testing, but hasn’t even had any completed stage moved out of the factory, one not likely to launch for a year or two?
What is NASA’s process and criteria for the award?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #39 on: 02/11/2023 01:33 am »
<snip>
How NASA can award a launch contract for a probe that is nearing completion to a a company whose rocket is not only not qualified with successful launches, not only hasn’t started integrated testing, but hasn’t even had any completed stage moved out of the factory, one not likely to launch for a year or two?
What is NASA’s process and criteria for the award?
If I don't know any better. It appears to be an attempt by NASA to quiet the WA congressional  delegation by awarding a low value mission launch contract to Below Orbit.

Of course if Below Orbit don't make the launch schedule, there is always the usual suspect to provide backup launch service.

Offline su27k

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #40 on: 02/11/2023 01:37 am »
Seems rather risky that NASA would award this to a rocket that has not launched yet by a company have has been to even LEO, like alone BEO. Does NASA have a backup if NG is not ready and has launched twice by later 2024? If they miss 2024 will they not have to wait until 2026? I am assuming they have to approve to NASA they can at least reach LEO twice before they are allowed to launch a NASA mission.

You know NASA did the same thing with SpaceX, right?  The Falcon 9 was very much a paper rocket on the drawing table when NASA gave a CRS award to SpaceX.

Also, Falcon 1's third launch had a NASA payload on it, the first three launches were all failures.

Not really, when NASA awarded CRS to SpaceX, Falcon 9 already completed 9-engines full mission duration static fire, that's way ahead of where New Glenn is right now, very much not a paper rocket.

Of course CRS is worth $1.6B, so it's not really comparable to the small award in this case. I agree that the ESCAPADE award is more comparable to the award NASA given to Falcon 1 and other small launchers.

Offline su27k

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #41 on: 02/11/2023 01:48 am »
<snip>
How NASA can award a launch contract for a probe that is nearing completion to a a company whose rocket is not only not qualified with successful launches, not only hasn’t started integrated testing, but hasn’t even had any completed stage moved out of the factory, one not likely to launch for a year or two?
What is NASA’s process and criteria for the award?
If I don't know any better. It appears to be an attempt by NASA to quiet the WA congressional  delegation by awarding a low value mission launch contract to Below Orbit.

No need for conspiracy theory here, as you said this is a low value mission so NASA can tolerate some delays and risks. Blue Origin puts in a really low bid (I would guess significantly lower than the launch cost) to beat out competitors, they won fair and square. Now let's just wait and see if they can execute.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #42 on: 02/11/2023 04:34 pm »
I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!
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Online DanClemmensen

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #43 on: 02/11/2023 04:37 pm »
I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!
I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.

Offline nicp

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #44 on: 02/11/2023 05:10 pm »
I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!
I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.
It will.
But when it does I suspect SX will drop their prices a lot. And still won’t make a loss.
And when that happens…. “Gentlemen, start your lawyers”
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #45 on: 02/11/2023 05:12 pm »
I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!
I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.
It will.
But when it does I suspect SX will drop their prices a lot. And still won’t make a loss.
And when that happens…. “Gentlemen, start your lawyers”
That’s unnecessarily dramatic. This is just how an efficient market works, and that’s a huge reason I’m excited for real competitors.

And this is all super good for payload makers and mission planners.
« Last Edit: 02/11/2023 05:13 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #46 on: 02/11/2023 07:07 pm »
I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!
I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.
We say "when", but the road from here to there is pretty obscure.

I mean for example we know Vulcan will launch.  The "when" is not quite certain, the engines are not qualified yet but we all know they will be, since basically not flying this year is not an option.  They passed acceptance, so they'll send it.  It's a risk/reward/penalty thing. It'll happen this year  but I don't think H1 is a sure thing at this point.

Meanwhile NG is so far from being a real thing it's depressing. While Vulcan is an evolved rocket for ULA, NG is brand new.  BO will have to go through a similar campaign as SpaceX has. They have never done this or anything like this. SpaceX had F9 experience. BO has what, NS?

SpaceX has been sitting on the pad with Starship for a couple of years now. Is there anyone expecting NG to just fly out?  Boeing's experience with Starliner showed that slow development is not a predicator for fast deployment. Quite on the contrary - when a project stretches for over a decade, just personnel turn-over reintroduces risk.

NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".
« Last Edit: 02/11/2023 07:08 pm by meekGee »
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Offline matthewkantar

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #47 on: 02/11/2023 07:39 pm »
NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #48 on: 02/11/2023 07:54 pm »
I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!
I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.
We say "when", but the road from here to there is pretty obscure.
Sigh. It seems I need to remember to put the <sardonic> tags in. Please parse my statement as:
      "I will not be excited until a real Falcon competitor shows up finally".
Also understand that I don't see that happening for quite some time yet. It's even likely that NG will never compete head-to-head with F9 because SpaceX will already have quit marketing it. They will continue to fly F9 and FH to meet existing commitments (CRS, CCP, NSSL) but will market Starship for new orders. Starship is at least a year ahead of NG now, so even if NG goes from first flight to operational as quickly as Starship they will still be a year behind.

Offline niwax

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #49 on: 02/11/2023 07:57 pm »
NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?

It strongly depends on how you define "competitor". By the time NG flies, they'll have spent the better part of $5 billion* developing it. Unless NG sells for $400 million a launch, it will be more a sign of Jeff Bezos still being happy to throw money at playing in space rather than someone actually managing to build something that can stand up to F9 commercially.

SpaceX has barely managed to eke out $3 billion/yr in launch business. If NG can take half of that, and make a massive 30% margin, it would only pay back its development cost in 10 years with zero interest. And it took enabling add-ons like Dragon to get the most profitable F9 business.

* It's been six years since Bezos confirmed he is putting $1 billion a year into Blue and they are realistically two years away from a real launch cadence. Not all of that is going into NG, but combined with income from subsidies and development contracts, $5 billion is a decent guess.
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Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #50 on: 02/11/2023 09:10 pm »
NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?
That doesn't make it any less of an "if".

It says NASA would like to encourage more providers, and I think everyone agrees with that sentiment.

Also NG is the only thing out there that aims to be larger than an F9.




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Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #51 on: 02/11/2023 09:15 pm »


I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally.
...
I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.
We say "when", but the road from here to there is pretty obscure.
Sigh. It seems I need to remember to put the &lt;sardonic&gt; tags in.
It's ok, I read it right... But was deathly worried others might not have....
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #52 on: 02/11/2023 09:42 pm »
NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?
That doesn't make it any less of an "if".

It says NASA would like to encourage more providers, and I think everyone agrees with that sentiment.

Also NG is the only thing out there that aims to be larger than an F9.
Terran-R does. Fully reusable payload supposed to be 20t. That is more than a F9 partially reusable payload.
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Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #53 on: 02/11/2023 09:57 pm »
NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?
That doesn't make it any less of an "if".

It says NASA would like to encourage more providers, and I think everyone agrees with that sentiment.

Also NG is the only thing out there that aims to be larger than an F9.
Terran-R does. Fully reusable payload supposed to be 20t. That is more than a F9 partially reusable payload.
Actually yes, true, and also some serious innovation in rocket building.  I'm excited about that one.
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Offline DrHeywoodFloyd

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #54 on: 02/13/2023 08:10 pm »
"..Blue Origin is also slated to fly its 322-foot New Glenn rocket before the end of this year. Company founder Jeff Bezos sees it as the rocket that will build "a road to space," meaning it will need to fly dozens of times per year to not only deploy satellites, but transport future space station segments and more. New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2023/01/15/space-force-expecting-hundreds-of-florida-launches-in-coming-years/69799019007/

Offline jdon759

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #55 on: 02/13/2023 11:37 pm »
".....New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."

!!! :o !!!

Online Robert_the_Doll

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #56 on: 02/14/2023 12:46 am »
Quote
New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."

What is Florida Today's citation for this claim?

Offline DrHeywoodFloyd

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #57 on: 02/14/2023 12:52 am »
Quote
New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."

What is Florida Today's citation for this claim?

Here is the twitter account of the author, Emre Kelly...
https://twitter.com/emrekelly

His contact details are on this page...including email address...
https://www.floridatoday.com/staff/4387089002/emre-kelly/

Best to ask him
« Last Edit: 02/14/2023 12:58 am by DrHeywoodFloyd »

Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #58 on: 02/14/2023 02:55 am »
"..Blue Origin is also slated to fly its 322-foot New Glenn rocket before the end of this year. Company founder Jeff Bezos sees it as the rocket that will build "a road to space," meaning it will need to fly dozens of times per year to not only deploy satellites, but transport future space station segments and more. New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2023/01/15/space-force-expecting-hundreds-of-florida-launches-in-coming-years/69799019007/
To be clear...

The reporter is not quoting anything recent from BO.

He's quoting a Major General Stephen Purdy of the Space Force, who is repeating the last stated aspirational goal he's gotten from each launch company, at some point in the past.

He's giving one paragraph each to ULA, Relativity, BO, and SpaceX.

Nothing about the article purports to be new information, and yes, at some point flying in 2023 was BO's goal.
« Last Edit: 02/14/2023 02:56 am by meekGee »
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Online Comga

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #59 on: 02/14/2023 05:45 am »
Here’s a novel idea for a post in the New Glenn Manifest thread:  A discussion about a launch date for a payload riding on a New Glenn!

ESCAPADE abstract from LPSC 2023:
https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2023/pdf/1108.pdf

It shows ESCAPADE launching in time to make the October 2024 Mars transfer window.
« Last Edit: 02/14/2023 05:25 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline deadman1204

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #60 on: 02/14/2023 09:00 pm »
Blue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.
Lets be honest about this, Blue is doing the launch for free basically.
Its a simplex launch. Very tiny budget, and most of that budget was already spent.
There is no way nasa will be paying even break even costs for a new glenn launch for a simplex payload.


I think this is a great partnership. The payload was stranded on earth, so NASA gets a mars launch for practically free, and Blue gets all the great publicity of a mars launch.
« Last Edit: 02/14/2023 09:04 pm by deadman1204 »

Offline whitelancer64

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #61 on: 02/14/2023 09:18 pm »
Blue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.
Lets be honest about this, Blue is doing the launch for free basically.
Its a simplex launch. Very tiny budget, and most of that budget was already spent.
There is no way nasa will be paying even break even costs for a new glenn launch for a simplex payload.

I think this is a great partnership. The payload was stranded on earth, so NASA gets a mars launch for practically free, and Blue gets all the great publicity of a mars launch.

TIL $20 million is "practically free"

It's also likely to be a rideshare.
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Offline deadman1204

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #62 on: 02/15/2023 02:01 am »
Blue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.
Lets be honest about this, Blue is doing the launch for free basically.
Its a simplex launch. Very tiny budget, and most of that budget was already spent.
There is no way nasa will be paying even break even costs for a new glenn launch for a simplex payload.

I think this is a great partnership. The payload was stranded on earth, so NASA gets a mars launch for practically free, and Blue gets all the great publicity of a mars launch.

TIL $20 million is "practically free"

It's also likely to be a rideshare.
For a new glenn launch to Mars? 20 million is practically free.

Offline GWH

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #63 on: 02/15/2023 02:47 pm »
I haven't seen performance figures outside of LEO  & SSO for Alpha or Terran 1, but those rockets are  stated at a price of $15-$17.6M and $12M respectively.

Assuming either could do it (factored LEO performance figures are very close) and tacking on a few extra million to round up to $20M - means that New Glenn's price is pretty typical to market pricing for this type of payload. 

How Blue Origin flies that without losing their shirt on launch is up to them. I'd wager that price isn't much more than their cost of expended hardware.

« Last Edit: 02/15/2023 02:50 pm by GWH »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #64 on: 02/15/2023 03:19 pm »


NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?

It strongly depends on how you define "competitor". By the time NG flies, they'll have spent the better part of $5 billion* developing it. Unless NG sells for $400 million a launch, it will be more a sign of Jeff Bezos still being happy to throw money at playing in space rather than someone actually managing to build something that can stand up to F9 commercially.

SpaceX has barely managed to eke out $3 billion/yr in launch business. If NG can take half of that, and make a massive 30% margin, it would only pay back its development cost in 10 years with zero interest. And it took enabling add-ons like Dragon to get the most profitable F9 business.

* It's been six years since Bezos confirmed he is putting $1 billion a year into Blue and they are realistically two years away from a real launch cadence. Not all of that is going into NG, but combined with income from subsidies and development contracts, $5 billion is a decent guess.

Blue aren't spenting all of annual $1B on NG. They have lot projects on the go.
LEO spacestation
Lunar lander.
ISRU development, see their recent announcement about demostrating solar cell manufacturing from regolith.
New Shepard.
Probably lot more that are secret.


Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #65 on: 02/18/2023 01:40 pm »
I’m trying to do a very overdue update of the NG launch manifest. It’s not pretty!

Kupier and ESCAPADE currently seem to be the most likely missions. Of the others:

Eutelsat said in April 2022:

Quote
Eutelsat now says it has no specific launch date slated for New Glenn, stating: “New Glenn is part of our portfolio of launch options and will be activated based on our future needs taking into consideration industry conditions at the time. Our launch contract with Blue Origin for a Eutelsat unspecified satellite on a New Glenn rocket is still current. It will help to diversify options for access to space.”

OneWeb is busy launching with ISRO and SpaceX. It seems unlikely NG will be available before OneWeb has their initial constellation on orbit?

mu Space still hasn’t launched anything to orbit - not clear if they ever will.

No more news from SKY Perfect JSAT about NG in the last few years. Perhaps just keep a watching brief like Eutelsat?

As of last November, Telesat still seemed to be arranging financing for their LEO constellation.

So very little of substance currently on the NG manifest. Presumably needs a firmer and closer launch date to progress any launch agreements.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #66 on: 02/18/2023 02:39 pm »
I’m trying to do a very overdue update of the NG launch manifest. It’s not pretty!

Kupier and ESCAPADE currently seem to be the most likely missions. Of the others:

Eutelsat said in April 2022:

Quote
Eutelsat now says it has no specific launch date slated for New Glenn, stating: “New Glenn is part of our portfolio of launch options and will be activated based on our future needs taking into consideration industry conditions at the time. Our launch contract with Blue Origin for a Eutelsat unspecified satellite on a New Glenn rocket is still current. It will help to diversify options for access to space.”

OneWeb is busy launching with ISRO and SpaceX. It seems unlikely NG will be available before OneWeb has their initial constellation on orbit?

mu Space still hasn’t launched anything to orbit - not clear if they ever will.

No more news from SKY Perfect JSAT about NG in the last few years. Perhaps just keep a watching brief like Eutelsat?

As of last November, Telesat still seemed to be arranging financing for their LEO constellation.

So very little of substance currently on the NG manifest. Presumably needs a firmer and closer launch date to progress any launch agreements.
For, me, SpaceX has demonstrated that a launch company succeeds when it has a customer with infinite demand that is willing to just use otherwise unsold launch capacity. That's what Starlink does for SpaceX. BO apparently has such a customer: Kuiper. Therefore, if they can execute and if Kuiper is successful, they can succeed. They will need to keep their prices competitive with SpaceX to win some higher-priority business also, of course, and the big question is the price of a Starship launch. We'll see. What this means is that forward-looking tentative manifests are probably very uncertain.

Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #67 on: 02/18/2023 03:51 pm »
I’m trying to do a very overdue update of the NG launch manifest. It’s not pretty!

Kupier and ESCAPADE currently seem to be the most likely missions. Of the others:

Eutelsat said in April 2022:

Quote
Eutelsat now says it has no specific launch date slated for New Glenn, stating: “New Glenn is part of our portfolio of launch options and will be activated based on our future needs taking into consideration industry conditions at the time. Our launch contract with Blue Origin for a Eutelsat unspecified satellite on a New Glenn rocket is still current. It will help to diversify options for access to space.”

OneWeb is busy launching with ISRO and SpaceX. It seems unlikely NG will be available before OneWeb has their initial constellation on orbit?

mu Space still hasn’t launched anything to orbit - not clear if they ever will.

No more news from SKY Perfect JSAT about NG in the last few years. Perhaps just keep a watching brief like Eutelsat?

As of last November, Telesat still seemed to be arranging financing for their LEO constellation.

So very little of substance currently on the NG manifest. Presumably needs a firmer and closer launch date to progress any launch agreements.
For, me, SpaceX has demonstrated that a launch company succeeds when it has a customer with infinite demand that is willing to just use otherwise unsold launch capacity. That's what Starlink does for SpaceX. BO apparently has such a customer: Kuiper. Therefore, if they can execute and if Kuiper is successful, they can succeed. They will need to keep their prices competitive with SpaceX to win some higher-priority business also, of course, and the big question is the price of a Starship launch. We'll see. What this means is that forward-looking tentative manifests are probably very uncertain.
Necessary condition, but not sufficient.

SpaceX already had a successful working heavy lifer before Starlink started using its services.  Not twice-a-week successful, but still.

NG has Kuiper.  But Kuiper so far doesn't have NG, and is itself very late to the game.

The lesson about F9 and Starlink is about vision, execution, and being first to market.
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Online DanClemmensen

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #68 on: 02/18/2023 05:26 pm »
For, me, SpaceX has demonstrated that a launch company succeeds when it has a customer with infinite demand that is willing to just use otherwise unsold launch capacity.
Necessary condition, but not sufficient.

SpaceX already had a successful working heavy lifer before Starlink started using its services.  Not twice-a-week successful, but still.

NG has Kuiper.  But Kuiper so far doesn't have NG, and is itself very late to the game.

The lesson about F9 and Starlink is about vision, execution, and being first to market.
Agreed. I am trying to overcome my anti-BO bias and look for a possible path to success even with their thin manifest.

[FST Edit: fixed broken quote marks]
« Last Edit: 02/20/2023 05:47 am by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #69 on: 02/24/2023 05:38 pm »
twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1629188079511564289

Quote
Col. Douglas Pentecost of the US Air Force says the military recently signed a "three-flight" option with Blue Origin for certification of the New Glenn rocket. This means three flights, but less data than ULA had to provide for a two-flight certification.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1629188606999887873

Quote
SpaceX also used a "three-flight" certification for the Falcon rockets, he said. There are also six-flight and 14-flight options, apparently, the latter of which essentially requires no data at all for certification for DOD launches.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #70 on: 02/24/2023 08:33 pm »
twitter.com/nasa_lsp/status/1629231877205753858

Quote
Team members from @BlueOrigin met with LSP today to discuss New Glenn! 🚀

They presented multiple rocket models to the NASA team, including a seven-foot version that will be on display in the LSP lobby located in the Neil A. Armstrong Operations and Checkout Building.

https://twitter.com/nasa_lsp/status/1629231881911771136

Quote
LSP Engineers are working to certify New Glenn for the launch of NASA's ESCAPADE mission.

Named after NASA astronaut John Glenn, Blue Origin describes it as a single configuration heavy-lift launch vehicle with a reusable first stage capable of carrying people and payloads.

Offline ZachF

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #71 on: 03/05/2023 02:47 am »
Blue Origin winning a contract to launch a Mars spacecraft atop the New Glenn is yet another boost to Blue Origin's fortunes in marketing the New Glenn for various civilian purposes because Amazon in 2022 contracted 15 flights of New Glenn, with an option for 18 more, for deployment of the Kuiper satellite constellation, notwithstanding the fact that the first New Glenn launch (now scheduled for Q4 of this year) is only intended as a technology demonstration mission. A late 2024 launch window for the ESCAPADE mission is very realistic considering that despite silence from Blue Origin, satellite images indicate that progress is being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn.
Lets be honest about this, Blue is doing the launch for free basically.
Its a simplex launch. Very tiny budget, and most of that budget was already spent.
There is no way nasa will be paying even break even costs for a new glenn launch for a simplex payload.

I think this is a great partnership. The payload was stranded on earth, so NASA gets a mars launch for practically free, and Blue gets all the great publicity of a mars launch.

TIL $20 million is "practically free"

It's also likely to be a rideshare.

$20m is probably less than the manufacturing cost of a NG upper stage…
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #73 on: 03/15/2023 07:10 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1636094802004680704

Quote
Cornell: not going to say where the NASA launch contract for ESCAPADE fits into New Glenn manifest beyond that it will be an early mission and we'll be ready. [NASA planning late 2024 launch for ESCAPADE.]

Offline deadman1204

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #74 on: 03/15/2023 08:01 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1636094802004680704

Quote
Cornell: not going to say where the NASA launch contract for ESCAPADE fits into New Glenn manifest beyond that it will be an early mission and we'll be ready. [NASA planning late 2024 launch for ESCAPADE.]
Better not be the first launch. Don't want nasa blowing a mars mission on a first launch - which has a high likelyhood of failure.

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #75 on: 04/11/2023 08:11 pm »
twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1645880943524159491

Quote
At the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) meeting today, Rob Lillis, PI for the ESCAPADE mission, says the launch window for it is Aug. 6-15, 2024. He believes Blue Origin's New Glenn "likely will be ready" for launching the mission.

I wouldn’t bet on that …

Edit to add:

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1645882861885456386

Quote
He said he was initially concerned that New Glenn hans't launched yet, but after touring Blue's facilities at the Cape he is much less concerned. (Must have been one helluva tour.)
« Last Edit: 04/11/2023 08:15 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online Robert_the_Doll

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #76 on: 04/11/2023 10:41 pm »
Quote
I wouldn’t bet on that …

Given that Blue Origin just released a video with a glimpse of how major elements, such as the forward module and the BE-4 engines will be integrated together, we can only imagine how much more that he saw that maybe showed him that a great deal of progress is currently being made.

Offline mandrewa

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #77 on: 04/13/2023 01:05 pm »
"He confirmed the $20 million price for the New Glenn, which is “massively oversized” for ESCAPADE."

See https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #78 on: 04/13/2023 10:05 pm »
"He confirmed the $20 million price for the New Glenn, which is “massively oversized” for ESCAPADE."

See https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/

This article suggestse things are even worse than expected.
Quote
“NASA didn’t promise us a ride to Mars ..."

the current launch window ... Aug. 6 through 15 of 2024 ... “is approximate and provisional” and that options for the mission’s trajectory are still being studied.

The launch will place the spacecraft into an Earth orbit with a period of about 1.6 days. ... After launch, the spacecraft will boost themselves into higher Earth orbits before performing a maneuver to go to Mars.

“They were able to bid what they knew the price was going to be, regardless of the cost to them.”

ESCAPADE doesn't have a launch with a TMI.
ESCAPADE doesn't have a defined trajectory.
A very new vehicle will have a ten day launch window.
They can't use the over performance of New Glenn to widen the launch window with a TMI.
If ESCAPADE is launched into a 1.6 day orbit, the perigee better be aligned with the antipode of the Mars trajectory.  This puts additional constraints on the launch.


Blue could have used their "massively oversized" to expand the launch window while keeping the arrival delta V within the capacity of ESCAPADE, one of the few tasks for which the LH2/LOX upper stage is well suited, but that seems to have been explicitly excluded.

But Blue lowballed the launch to win.

It seems like a calamity in the making.



What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #79 on: 04/13/2023 11:14 pm »
With wet mass of 550kg of which 350 is fuel and ISP320 (estimated), gives DV of 3175m/s.

In regards to LVs I think new 1000kg class LVs like Terran 1 don't have enough performance to place these satellites into a high enough orbit. They really need likes of Vega or PSLV. 
« Last Edit: 04/13/2023 11:26 pm by TrevorMonty »

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #80 on: 07/06/2023 07:57 pm »
I’ve not seen any other media reports of Blue Origin launching an Iranian satellite:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/international-regulators-grant-iran-new-extension-for-years-delayed-satellite-for-43-5-east-blue-origin-launch-in-2024/

Quote
International regulators give Iran new extension for years-delayed satellite for 43.5 east; Blue Origin launch in 2024
written by Peter B. De Selding
July 5, 2023

TUPPER LAKE, NY — The Iranian government’s attempt to place a national telecommunications satellite into geostationary orbit at 43.5 degrees east has been a multi-year struggle against bad decisions, bad timing and international sanctions.

It’s still not over, but international regulators have now given Iran yet another extension of the deadline by which it must place a satellite at the slot […]

Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #81 on: 07/06/2023 08:26 pm »
I’ve not seen any other media reports of Blue Origin launching an Iranian satellite:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/international-regulators-grant-iran-new-extension-for-years-delayed-satellite-for-43-5-east-blue-origin-launch-in-2024/

Quote
International regulators give Iran new extension for years-delayed satellite for 43.5 east; Blue Origin launch in 2024
written by Peter B. De Selding
July 5, 2023

TUPPER LAKE, NY — The Iranian government’s attempt to place a national telecommunications satellite into geostationary orbit at 43.5 degrees east has been a multi-year struggle against bad decisions, bad timing and international sanctions.

It’s still not over, but international regulators have now given Iran yet another extension of the deadline by which it must place a satellite at the slot […]
It's part of the long-running effort by the US state department to deny Iran access to space.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #82 on: 07/07/2023 11:12 am »
.....
It's part of the long-running effort by the US state department to deny Iran access to space.
Was it stated somewhere by the US state department?

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #83 on: 07/07/2023 03:20 pm »
I’ve not seen any other media reports of Blue Origin launching an Iranian satellite:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/international-regulators-grant-iran-new-extension-for-years-delayed-satellite-for-43-5-east-blue-origin-launch-in-2024/

Quote
International regulators give Iran new extension for years-delayed satellite for 43.5 east; Blue Origin launch in 2024
written by Peter B. De Selding
July 5, 2023

TUPPER LAKE, NY — The Iranian government’s attempt to place a national telecommunications satellite into geostationary orbit at 43.5 degrees east has been a multi-year struggle against bad decisions, bad timing and international sanctions.

It’s still not over, but international regulators have now given Iran yet another extension of the deadline by which it must place a satellite at the slot […]

That article is behind a paywall, so there is no way for most people following your link to view it and have full context.

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #84 on: 09/01/2023 02:58 am »
Blue’s revised NG page (https://www.blueorigin.com/new-glenn) lists Kuiper, Escapade and Telesat as customers.

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #85 on: 09/11/2023 04:00 pm »
Telesat confirmed that despite the new F9 contract announced today, they’ll launch on NG as well:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/telesat-buys-spacex-launches-for-lightspeed-internet-satellites.html

Quote
Telesat buys SpaceX launches for Lightspeed internet satellites
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 11 202310:51 AM EDT
thumbnail
Michael Sheetz
@IN/MICHAELJSHEETZ
@THESHEETZTWEETZ

KEY POINTS

Elon Musk’s SpaceX signed a hefty deal with satellite operator Telesat.

The Lightspeed missions will fly on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.

Telesat still has a 2019 agreement in place with Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #86 on: 09/11/2023 04:08 pm »
Telesat confirmed that despite the new F9 contract announced today, they’ll launch on NG as well:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/telesat-buys-spacex-launches-for-lightspeed-internet-satellites.html

Quote
Telesat buys SpaceX launches for Lightspeed internet satellites
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 11 202310:51 AM EDT
thumbnail
Michael Sheetz
@IN/MICHAELJSHEETZ
@THESHEETZTWEETZ

KEY POINTS

Elon Musk’s SpaceX signed a hefty deal with satellite operator Telesat.

The Lightspeed missions will fly on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.

Telesat still has a 2019 agreement in place with Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.

The way I understand this is that F9 will launch the entire Lightspeed constellation, but if Telesat has any spares, or decides to expand it in the future with either more satellites or newer next gen satellites, New Glenn is what they would use under that contract (if you can call it that, sounds more like an agreement like the ones Peter Beck has criticized). Telesat could also opt to use NG to launch geostationary satellite(s) in the future as well.

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #87 on: 09/11/2023 04:30 pm »
I wouldn't say Space X signed to launch the entire constellation. Even with their current launches 14 and maximum number of satellites per launch. they are still short of the planned number of satellites for the constellation.
« Last Edit: 09/11/2023 04:31 pm by Purona »

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #88 on: 09/11/2023 04:35 pm »
I wouldn't say Space X signed to launch the entire constellation. Even with their current launches 14 and maximum number of satellites per launch. they are still short of the planned number of satellites for the constellation.

No, 198 sat constellation over 14 launches is an average of about 14 sats per launch on F9, max stated per launch is 18. But this is the New Glenn thread.

Offline GWH

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #89 on: 09/11/2023 07:43 pm »
I wouldn't say Space X signed to launch the entire constellation. Even with their current launches 14 and maximum number of satellites per launch. they are still short of the planned number of satellites for the constellation.

No, 198 sat constellation over 14 launches is an average of about 14 sats per launch on F9, max stated per launch is 18. But this is the New Glenn thread.

Your point still seems relevant to this thread though. 14 launches seems like enough to cover the entirety of the launch requirements for this constellation, and if that is the case then what is left for Blue Origin?


Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #90 on: 09/11/2023 08:16 pm »
I wouldn't say Space X signed to launch the entire constellation.

Yep, the entire constellation. Telesat is having MDA build 198 satellites, and Telesat is having SpaceX launch 198 satellites.

Telesat Contracts MDA as Prime Satellite Manufacturer for Its Advanced Telesat Lightspeed Low Earth Orbit Constellation | Telesat

Telesat books 14 launches with SpaceX, bypassing Blue Origin and Relativity | Ars Technica

Relevant quote:
Quote
The 14 missions appear to be more than enough to launch Telesat's first batch of 198 Lightspeed satellites, and the company said the launches will enable global service, which requires 156 spacecraft in orbit, to begin in 2027.

Then you said:
Quote
Even with their current launches 14 and maximum number of satellites per launch. they are still short of the planned number of satellites for the constellation.

Each Falcon 9 launch could launch up to 18 satellites, and they only need to average 14.1 per launch for the 198 satellite constellation. So those 14 launches appear to have enough capacity to launch the entire constellation.

As for Blue Origin and Relativity:
Quote
“We remain in close contact with Blue Origin and believe in time they will become a valued launch provider, and we think it is important to have optionality in our launch services,” a Telesat spokesperson told Ars.
...
“We never envisioned Relativity as part of our initial constellation deployment,” the Telesat spokesperson said. “Instead, we can leverage their capability for single satellite deployments to either replace a satellite or add additional capacity to the network.”


So both could be considered for future launch services, but not for this initial constellation deployment.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #91 on: 09/12/2023 10:27 am »
their intended constellation size is 298 their initial deployment is 198

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #92 on: 09/12/2023 09:13 pm »
their intended constellation size is 298 their initial deployment is 198
Telesat have change their satcom supplier to MDA with a different satellite bus design as well as a decrease in constellation size to 198 due to budget constrain to slightly higher orbits.

Unless there is new funding for additional comsats for this iteration of the Lightspeed constellation. There will be 198 and only 198 comsats manufactured by MDA. If there is additional satcoms, SpaceX have capacity for 54 more comsats with the sign contract for 14 Falcon 9 launches.

If Telesat and their Lightspeed makes it to planning for constellation replenishment in about 3 years than the size of the constellation might increase beyond 198 with different launch arrangements.
« Last Edit: 09/18/2023 10:01 am by Zed_Noir »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #93 on: 09/12/2023 09:56 pm »
their intended constellation size is 298 their initial deployment is 198

In my response to you above I actually linked the Telesat press release saying they were buying 198 satellites from MDA. Are you not believing Telesat?
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Offline JCRM

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #94 on: 09/13/2023 08:59 am »
their intended constellation size is 298 their initial deployment is 198

In my response to you above I actually linked the Telesat press release saying they were buying 198 satellites from MDA. Are you not believing Telesat?

It pivots on whether "the initial deployment" can be considered "the whole constellation."

I expect there will be little incentive to use a second provider, after the initial deployment, so I think it likely the whole constellation will be deployed by SpaceX, but that isn't yet "signed."

Offline whitelancer64

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #95 on: 09/13/2023 09:44 pm »
Telesat originally planned a constellation of 298 satellites, however, in mid 2022 they had to downsize to a constellation of 198 satellites due to supply chain shortages.

"Increasing costs and delays have forced Telesat to downsize plans for 298 low Earth orbit satellites by a third to keep within its $5 billion budget.

The Canadian satellite operator plans to order just 188 satellites plus 10 in-orbit spares from Thales Alenia Space, Telesat CEO Dan Goldberg said during the company’s May 6 earnings call."

https://spacenews.com/telesat-to-order-90-fewer-satellites-for-leo-constellation/


In August 2023, Telesat switched to a contract with the satellite manufacturer MDA, which has options for 100 more satellites, if funding for them can be secured through early operation of the constellation.

"The MDA contract includes options for an additional 100 satellites to expand the constellation to 298 satellites."

There are a lot more details in this article:

https://spacenews.com/telesats-leo-constellation-fully-funded-after-manufacturer-switch/
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline deltaV

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #96 on: 09/24/2023 10:54 pm »
Many sources reported that NASA’s EscaPADE (two spacecraft totaling about 1 tonne wet) will launch on New Glenn for $20M (e.g. up-thread or https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/). The Main Engine Cutoff podcast (https://mainenginecutoff.com/podcast/240 starting 15:15 in) additionally made vague claims that they heard about other $20M New Glenn launches. Do we have any good info on whether $20M is a special price for this unusually small payload or the usual price for New Glenn launches?

Edit: maybe $20M is for RTLS reuse and barge landings will be more?
« Last Edit: 09/24/2023 11:04 pm by deltaV »

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #97 on: 09/24/2023 11:11 pm »
Many sources reported that NASA’s EscaPADE (two spacecraft totaling about 1 tonne wet) will launch on New Glenn for $20M (e.g. up-thread or https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/). The Main Engine Cutoff podcast (https://mainenginecutoff.com/podcast/240 starting 15:15 in) additionally made vague claims that they heard about other $20M New Glenn launches. Do we have any good info on whether $20M is a special price for this unusually small payload or the usual price for New Glenn launches?

Edit: maybe $20M is for RTLS reuse and barge landings will be more?

Spacenews article quotes a government procurement database for that 20 mil number. https://spacenews.com/blue-origin-wins-first-nasa-business-for-new-glenn/

From my understanding, the price is inconsequential and meaningless: Blue bid for and made sure to win this launch for the sake of winning a NASA mission. That 20 mil means nothing in relation to what we can expect for actual New Glenn commercial launch prices.
« Last Edit: 09/24/2023 11:11 pm by spacenuance »

Offline whitelancer64

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #98 on: 09/25/2023 03:22 pm »
Many sources reported that NASA’s EscaPADE (two spacecraft totaling about 1 tonne wet) will launch on New Glenn for $20M (e.g. up-thread or https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/). The Main Engine Cutoff podcast (https://mainenginecutoff.com/podcast/240 starting 15:15 in) additionally made vague claims that they heard about other $20M New Glenn launches. Do we have any good info on whether $20M is a special price for this unusually small payload or the usual price for New Glenn launches?

Edit: maybe $20M is for RTLS reuse and barge landings will be more?

It is widely though to be a rideshare launch, so NASA will possibly not be the only paying customer on board. Old estimates for a New Glenn launch put its base price around $60-80 million. Now, due to inflation, supply chain disruptions, etc. it's probably around the high end of that range. Also, payloads willing to risk flying on first launches usually get a very big (like 50%) discount.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #99 on: 12/14/2023 06:10 pm »
Crosspost:

From the above interview:

Quote
.@JeffBezos re: New Glenn in conversation with @lexfridman:

"Very optimistic" for a first launch in 2024, but unsure what payload it will carry. Possibly EscaPADE. "We also have other things that might go on that first mission."

"Extremely nervous" about first launch.

https://twitter.com/johnkrausphotos/status/1735365667937722502

Quote
"Blue Origin needs to be much faster and it's one of the reasons I left my role as the CEO of Amazon a couple of years ago. I wanted to come in, and Blue Origin needs me right now."

Online Robert_the_Doll

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #100 on: 12/14/2023 08:15 pm »
The link is broken/post has been taken down.

Online Robert_the_Doll

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #101 on: 12/14/2023 09:36 pm »
The interview is back up:
https://twitter.com/lexfridman/status/1735360877312778404
Quote
Here's my conversation with @jeffbezos
, founder of Amazon and Blue Origin. This is his first time doing a long-form conversation of this kind, and it was an epic one.

It's here on X in full & is up on YouTube, Spotify, and everywhere else.

Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
0:24 - Texas ranch and childhood
4:02 - Space exploration and rocket engineering
16:36 - Physics
26:10 - New Glenn rocket
1:08:59 - Lunar program
1:18:55 - Amazon
1:36:16 - Principles
1:54:56 - Productivity
2:05:34 - Future of humanity

Offline Tywin

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #102 on: 01/08/2024 12:54 pm »
https://twitter.com/Dr_ThomasZ/status/1744262399949988212


I know he no longer works at NASA; but he was one of the most important people in NASA's probes; and I think this recent success, may help to start growing the future manisfest of New Glenn contracts with NASA in the future....

When the New Glenn manages to launch two-three times successfully, it seems to me that NASA may be very interested to start launching important space missions with them in the future...


Which future NASA mission to be launched in the next 5-10 years, do you think can be contracted with the New Glenn?
« Last Edit: 01/08/2024 12:55 pm by Tywin »
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