Author Topic: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft  (Read 45733 times)

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #20 on: 09/20/2018 04:39 am »
Blue selling engines to ULA gives them early credibility with prospective customers, especially in the US government. They need that if they expect to go from suborbital to heavy lift overnight and have payloads ready to go. They're not selling engines to ULA because they need the money. They can't possibly believe that ULA's or Boeing's vision for space is aligned with theirs.

Or SpaceX for that matter.

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It would be entirely within character for Blue to be surprisingly far along on a skunkworks human spacecraft project which has been kept closely under wraps for several years. They do their own thing, they do it quietly, they do it well...

Yes, they are a quiet organization so far, and likely that won't change - much to all of our frustration.  ;)

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...and they do it at their own pace.

I think there's some truth to the recent reports of Bezos beginning to crack the whip a little to speed up development...

Good, fast, cheap. Those are the corners of the Project Management Triangle. Assuming $1B per year budget covers their needs, one would think they could focus on the "fast" and "good" aspects. It sure doesn't appear like "fast" is a big concern for them, and if they are focused on "good" that is completely understandable.

Still, I think we'd all like to see more "Ferociter" than "Gradatim".

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...but nothing nearly so desperate as to make them consider buying Starliner flights.

Not sure what that would give them, and it might slow them down from pursuing their own spacecraft. There is nothing they can learn as Starliner passengers that they can't get from NASA's expansive library of knowledge and their own resources.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline jbenton

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #21 on: 09/20/2018 04:43 am »
If Blue Origin is open to putting someone else's manned spacecraft on their rocket (also complete speculation) a manned Dream Chaser could get them there a lot quicker than their own development.

Although Dream Chaser would be much quicker than their own design, Starliner would be much much quicker since it should be flying  crew next year. I am not sure how far along the crewed Dream Chaser design is considering that their current focus/contract is for a cargo version.

Well it's hard to say that Crew Dream Chaser would be much quicker without knowing the state of Blue's capsule design.

Agreed. For what it's worth, though Crew Dream Chaser is apparently 85% the same as Cargo.

They're not selling engines to ULA because they need the money. They can't possibly believe that ULA's or Boeing's vision for space is aligned with theirs.
If you believe ULA's propaganda, the two companies' visions for space are identical. Thousands working in space, cislunar economy, etc. I think that in ten or twenty years from now, either Blue and ULA are competing for the exact same market with the exact same goals, or they'll be the same company.

I think there's some truth to the recent reports of Bezos beginning to crack the whip a little to speed up development, but nothing nearly so desperate as to make them consider buying Starliner flights. Bezos knows that Blue don't have to match SpaceX anytime soon. They just have to beat everybody else to secure their role as the essential second option, and they're in a very strong position to accomplish that in-house.
What's their motto? Something about turtles?  :)

That being said, I agree that they would prefer to make their spacecraft in-house. SpaceX and Blue are all about DIY vertical integration; and, at least in the case of Bezos, if you can't do it yourself, merge.

Offline Tywin

Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #22 on: 09/20/2018 04:53 am »


Yes, they are a quiet organization so far, and likely that won't change - much to all of our frustration.  ;)

For me is a good question, is why they like to be so secret...SpaceX and other companys are the contrary, they love show all they have and all the dreams in beautiful powerpoints...

And at the moment they are behind of SpaceX...why dont show al least in what are they working?
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Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #23 on: 09/20/2018 05:09 am »


Yes, they are a quiet organization so far, and likely that won't change - much to all of our frustration.  ;)

For me is a good question, is why they like to be so secret...SpaceX and other companys are the contrary, they love show all they have and all the dreams in beautiful powerpoints...

And at the moment they are behind of SpaceX...why dont show al least in what are they working?
There are good reasons to be secretive in competitive businesses.  If they have some new creative approach that will give them a jump over the competition, they don't want to give it away and give the competition time to catch up.  They are showing images of New Glenn because they are trying to sell their launch services.  They may start showing what they are going to do with manned orbital flight as soon as they are ready to start selling that.  Or it's possible that they are doing very little about a manned orbital vehicle and just don't want the world to know that either.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #24 on: 09/20/2018 10:42 am »
A old article about this thread :D



https://www.space.com/19584-blue-origin-quiet-plans-for-spaceships.html

I hope they really are working on this...
The original plan was to fly this capsule on BE3 powered orbital LV, but they decided to go down NG path. Given NG extra performance that capsule may have grown in size to something that will carry 20-30 people.


Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #25 on: 09/20/2018 11:36 am »
Blue selling engines to ULA gives them early credibility with prospective customers, especially in the US government. They need that if they expect to go from suborbital to heavy lift overnight and have payloads ready to go. They're not selling engines to ULA because they need the money. They can't possibly believe that ULA's or Boeing's vision for space is aligned with theirs.


Boeing doesnt have a vision, it has customers...and stockholders...and must make a profit to continue in business.  It is not a piggy bank where some CEO can say "I"ll spend the companies money creating this or that device which I "hope" with go to this or that place and if it makes money great or it doesnt ok fine"

EM and to a greater extent JB have personal money, far more than they can ever spend on themselves in a lifetime, so they can indulge their dreams and "whims" and "vision" and see where it takes them.

there is something to be commended here...most people in their position buy endless houses or yachts or whatever...and in the end have little but self gratitude to show for it...but these folks have an indulgence that Boeing cannot

to say however that Boeing does not have "vision" is absurd.  Boeing has repeatedly through its history "broke the mold" in aviation.  from the B299 to the Dreamliner it has bet the company fortune on developing a product or products which has kept the world free (the B299 to B52 were unique in house inventions) or opened the world to millions.  when my Grandmother was delivering C377's for the company the average price of an economy ticket to Europe (the UK) was in the thousands of dollars in current dollars.  today its in the hundreds...and in large measure thats because of Boeing products.

the problem right now is that most if not all of the visions of "humans in space" are mere fantasy unsupported by real economics...other than just someone spending a pile of money with no real aspect or foundation for any economic return (all you have to do is go to any thread here about a "Mars economy" and its all hand waving and dependent on people continuing to just spend their own personal fortunes to make it happen)

the key illustration of that is that SpaceX, OSC and eventually Boeing and SpaceX are making money on human flight; solely because the federal government is spending tax payer dollars to maintain it.  Put another way SpaceX would never have had money to develop Dragon or Dragon2 without federal dollars. and its pretty clear that they never would have developed those vehicles.  Its unclear (at least to me) that they have the money to develop BFr/s. 

Now it might happen that if SpaceX and BO and other lower the cost of access to space by humans and open the "variety of it" (iemore people can come) than something can be found that has value only because humans are doing it...and this can happen off the federal dole...but so far there has been no hint of what that is...and unless there is one, even JB pockets eventually will run dry.

I dont know JB (other than having met him a few times as he was setting up Amazons flight operation) but I do know he grasp that at some point someone has to make money in space to make space a place for people.  It is no secret that JB was lobbied pretty hard by Airbus to get a foot in the door for their freighter versions...on the other hand JB chose the best product for his goal...which was a Boeing product.  I know he developed a very deep "link" with Boeing people and Dennis.  JB knows good products when he sees them.  It would not surprise me either way of Boeing and JB have future activites together in spaceflight and human space flight. 

both in the end know that its money that makes the world go round, or lets you get off it

« Last Edit: 09/20/2018 11:37 am by TripleSeven »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #26 on: 09/20/2018 01:16 pm »
If Blue Origin is open to putting someone else's manned spacecraft on their rocket (also complete speculation) a manned Dream Chaser could get them there a lot quicker than their own development.

Although Dream Chaser would be much quicker than their own design, Starliner would be much much quicker since it should be flying  crew next year. I am not sure how far along the crewed Dream Chaser design is considering that their current focus/contract is for a cargo version.
Yes, I do. It was in CCDev presentations.

Well it's hard to say that Crew Dream Chaser would be much quicker without knowing the state of Blue's capsule design.

Very important point!

Do you guys recall having much foreknowledge about New Glenn before it was officially announced? That might be a good barometer for how good they are as a company with secrecy. Though Iím sure that would get increasingly difficult with as the company gets bigger.
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Offline ncb1397

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #27 on: 09/20/2018 02:14 pm »


That has some features of an orbital capsule. Might start with that as a base.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #28 on: 09/20/2018 03:14 pm »
to say however that Boeing does not have "vision" is absurd.

Compared to what Jeff Bezos wants to do they don't.

Jeff Bezos wants to move humanity out into space and turn Earth into a park. Whoever is the current Boeing CEO will always be charged with ensuring shareholder value.

Until there is a business case for expanding humanity out into space, Boeing will never have a "vision" for space that they plan to execute on their own dime. Pretty much everything they propose today is in the context of being a contractor for the U.S. Government. That's not "vision", that's "marketing". The two are not the same.

When Bezos does let on what they are doing for a spacecraft we will have a better idea how New Glenn and New Armstrong will be used to expand humanity out into space.
« Last Edit: 09/20/2018 05:09 pm by Coastal Ron »
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline envy887

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #29 on: 09/20/2018 03:28 pm »
If Blue Origin is open to putting someone else's manned spacecraft on their rocket (also complete speculation) a manned Dream Chaser could get them there a lot quicker than their own development.

Although Dream Chaser would be much quicker than their own design, Starliner would be much much quicker since it should be flying  crew next year. I am not sure how far along the crewed Dream Chaser design is considering that their current focus/contract is for a cargo version.

Well it's hard to say that Crew Dream Chaser would be much quicker without knowing the state of Blue's capsule design.

Agreed. For what it's worth, though Crew Dream Chaser is apparently 85% the same as Cargo.

It's the last 15% that takes the longest and costs the most.

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #30 on: 09/20/2018 03:33 pm »


Compared the what Jeff Bezos wants to do they don't.

Jeff Bezos wants to move humanity out into space and turn Earth into a park. Whoever is the current Boeing CEO will always be charged with ensuring shareholder value.

Until there is a business case for expanding humanity out into space, Boeing will never have a "vision" for space that they plan to execute on their own dime. Pretty much everything they propose today is in the context of being a contractor for the U.S. Government. That's not "vision", that's "marketing". The two are not the same.

When Bezos does let on what they are doing for a spacecraft we will have a better idea how New Glenn and New Armstrong will be used to expand humanity out into space.

the Boeing CEO's job is to have vision for the company...and to talk with customers who have vision (Juan Trippe for instance or well Jeff Bezos) and try and have the internal vision to help them realize their dreams

the problem with both Musk and maybe Bezos, but I am sure of Musk (again its hard to see where Bezos is going) is that it seems to be "all vision" without any grounding in economics.

Space settlement by humans has become among many (it use to be among me but I "grew up" :) ) sort of a religion.

"If only the cost come down we will go settle Mars and do the other things not because they are hard butn ow they are easy"  ..... "If only astronauts were replaced with good looking women playing violins floating i zero gee" wow that would turn people on to people in space and get people interested.

and maybe that is true...but its never worked anywhere else, at any other time in the world.  there has to be a personal and "large scale" economic reason to do something like that...

this has been discussed a lot...but its cheap to get to Alaska, land is virtually free, etc etc.  its a very low population, and except for oil, low industry state.  if it was not Saudi Arabia in the snow...it would be less even so

Low cost access to space makes it easier for the "great break through" to happen...it makes it easier for other visionaries to step up and see if their vision can work.  but right now you cannot tell me one thing humans do in space that is worth their cost...at almost any "likely price point"

and without that...no vision will survive :(   I like to think Bezos knows this ...but thats just "hope" on my part

Offline matthewkantar

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #31 on: 09/20/2018 04:30 pm »
the problem with both Musk and maybe Bezos, but I am sure of Musk (again its hard to see where Bezos is going) is that it seems to be "all vision" without any grounding in economics.

One has to be amazed that an individual "without any grounding in economics" somehow stumbled into building a 28 billion dollar business from a 180 million dollar investment. Success in aerospace biz must be rather a lot like the lottery. Who knew?

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #32 on: 09/20/2018 04:52 pm »
the problem with both Musk and maybe Bezos, but I am sure of Musk (again its hard to see where Bezos is going) is that it seems to be "all vision" without any grounding in economics.

One has to be amazed that an individual "without any grounding in economics" somehow stumbled into building a 28 billion dollar business from a 180 million dollar investment. Success in aerospace biz must be rather a lot like the lottery. Who knew?

the more money you have to start with, the more success you can stumble into

and while I guess the lottery is a tad overboard...dealing with random chance in life is what seps the winners from the losers.  I have friends who did everything I did and some did it better...and some of those are working at a horrible business jet job because the company that they went to work with, went, to no fault of their own belly up

Offline RonM

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #33 on: 09/20/2018 05:01 pm »
the problem with both Musk and maybe Bezos, but I am sure of Musk (again its hard to see where Bezos is going) is that it seems to be "all vision" without any grounding in economics.

Elon Musk has bachelor's degrees in economics and physics. Jeff Bezos has degrees in electrical engineering and computer science. Both of their success in business, especially Bezos, shows they know something about making money and creating new markets.

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #34 on: 09/20/2018 05:14 pm »
the problem with both Musk and maybe Bezos, but I am sure of Musk (again its hard to see where Bezos is going) is that it seems to be "all vision" without any grounding in economics.

Elon Musk has bachelor's degrees in economics and physics. Jeff Bezos has degrees in electrical engineering and computer science. Both of their success in business, especially Bezos, shows they know something about making money and creating new markets.

I dont disagree with that at all...I dont see Musk talk much about "new markets" in space where humans "pull their mass" we will see..

Offline Lars-J

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #35 on: 09/20/2018 05:16 pm »
It doesn't really count as "vision" if you need an existing market to be there before dipping your toes carefully. (i.e. Boeing) VISION is seeing what could be there and building something to create it.

Boeing had this quality, hopefully a smidgeon of it remains.

Offline su27k

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #36 on: 09/20/2018 05:23 pm »
the Boeing CEO's job is to have vision for the company...and to talk with customers who have vision (Juan Trippe for instance or well Jeff Bezos) and try and have the internal vision to help them realize their dreams

the problem with both Musk and maybe Bezos, but I am sure of Musk (again its hard to see where Bezos is going) is that it seems to be "all vision" without any grounding in economics.

Space settlement by humans has become among many (it use to be among me but I "grew up" :) ) sort of a religion.

"If only the cost come down we will go settle Mars and do the other things not because they are hard butn ow they are easy"  ..... "If only astronauts were replaced with good looking women playing violins floating i zero gee" wow that would turn people on to people in space and get people interested.

and maybe that is true...but its never worked anywhere else, at any other time in the world.  there has to be a personal and "large scale" economic reason to do something like that...

this has been discussed a lot...but its cheap to get to Alaska, land is virtually free, etc etc.  its a very low population, and except for oil, low industry state.  if it was not Saudi Arabia in the snow...it would be less even so

Low cost access to space makes it easier for the "great break through" to happen...it makes it easier for other visionaries to step up and see if their vision can work.  but right now you cannot tell me one thing humans do in space that is worth their cost...at almost any "likely price point"

and without that...no vision will survive :(   I like to think Bezos knows this ...but thats just "hope" on my part

If it's grounded in economics, it's business plan, not a vision.

So Musk's vision may not become reality, big deal.... If you hear his speech, he's fully aware of this possibility. The point is, if he doesn't do what he does, the probability of realizing his vision is exactly zero; by doing what he does he at least has a chance.

And yes, it's exactly like a sort of religion, it takes a leap of faith to think there's more to space than the current few business opportunities. Without this faith, there's no will to radically reduce the cost of access to space, and without a radical reduction in cost there's no chance for new business opportunity to arise, this chicken and egg problem has stagnated space industry for decades, it really does take faith to break it. Old space has no faith, that's why they're not the ones doing what Musk and Bezos is doing.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #37 on: 09/20/2018 05:23 pm »
Compared the what Jeff Bezos wants to do they don't.

Jeff Bezos wants to move humanity out into space and turn Earth into a park. Whoever is the current Boeing CEO will always be charged with ensuring shareholder value.

the Boeing CEO's job is to have vision for the company...

Apparently you don't recognize the difference between a personal vision and a corporate one.

Jeff Bezos has a personal vision for the future, and he is willing to use his own money to make it happen. No business case is needed at this point since he can fund his vision with his personal wealth.

The CEO of a company like Boeing is hired to return value to the shareholders. Sure that means they have to set a course that will keep the money flowing long after the CEO has left, but don't confuse shareholder needs with a "vision".

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the problem with both Musk and maybe Bezos, but I am sure of Musk (again its hard to see where Bezos is going) is that it seems to be "all vision" without any grounding in economics.

You are confusing having a business case for doing something with the goal someone has of benefiting humanity in the future.

For instance, there really isn't a business case for world peace, yet many yearn for it.

Both Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are very smart business people though, and Elon Musk especially has mastered the art of getting customers to fund his goals. Jeff Bezos has been working on that too, and it's far too early to say that there is no economic reason for moving humanity out into space. We're still in the R&D phase of investment, with many decades (centuries?) to go of further investment.

This is how "vision" works.

You continue to want to talk about any BUT the topic at hand - anything to say about Blue Origin's plans for a spacecraft? Because otherwise you should take this conversation to a space economics thread...  ::)
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline RonM

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #38 on: 09/20/2018 05:26 pm »
the problem with both Musk and maybe Bezos, but I am sure of Musk (again its hard to see where Bezos is going) is that it seems to be "all vision" without any grounding in economics.

Elon Musk has bachelor's degrees in economics and physics. Jeff Bezos has degrees in electrical engineering and computer science. Both of their success in business, especially Bezos, shows they know something about making money and creating new markets.

I dont disagree with that at all...I dont see Musk talk much about "new markets" in space where humans "pull their mass" we will see..

Musk talks about SpaceX being a space shipping company and hopes someone else will come up with a business plan for a space economy. That does sound like wishful thinking.

Bezos talks about a space economy, but is short on details.

We'll have to wait and see how this shakes out. SpaceX has the head start on Blue when it comes to hardware, but Blue maybe the first to develop a practical space business case. Something more than communication satellites.

Then the big aerospace companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, etc. will be able to convince their shareholders to move to the new space economy. That's when it really gets interesting.

Offline Lar

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Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Reply #39 on: 09/20/2018 05:55 pm »
Take general discussion of Blue (and of Blue vs SpaceX) to the general thread for Blue:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43998

Not here.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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