Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread

[AlexP]

If Blue Origin really wants to work that way, then it should work that way.

What happened is that Jeff Bezos promised a manned flight until the end of 2017, while in reality there's not even a single unmanned test this year.

It's just normal to ask what went wrong with that company. Are they serious to work on suborbital tourism? Or is it scam?

Not sure how on earth you can bring the word "scam" into this. They aren't taking money and have launched the craft into space multiple times. If schedule slippage was all it takes for something to be labelled a scam then spaceflight is all one hell of a con job.

By the sounds of it, they've altered aspects of the design of New Shepard from the lessons learned earlier in testing. Maybe it's taking a little longer than they initially thought. More information would be welcome but it's not really warranted to be throwing accusations around.

[spacenut]

I think they have been concentrating on the BE-4 engine.  From what I have read here, they have had two explosions in testing.  They also may work like the old school companies, 40 hour work weeks and slow moving. 

[Svetoslav]

If Blue Origin really wants to work that way, then it should work that way.

What happened is that Jeff Bezos promised a manned flight until the end of 2017, while in reality there's not even a single unmanned test this year.

It's just normal to ask what went wrong with that company. Are they serious to work on suborbital tourism? Or is it scam?

Not sure how on earth you can bring the word "scam" into this. They aren't taking money and have launched the craft into space multiple times. If schedule slippage was all it takes for something to be labelled a scam then spaceflight is all one hell of a con job.

By the sounds of it, they've altered aspects of the design of New Shepard from the lessons learned earlier in testing. Maybe it's taking a little longer than they initially thought. More information would be welcome but it's not really warranted to be throwing accusations around.

Well, for me lack of evidence in this case is almost equal to an argument for non-existence.

When they show me the rockets and start conducting flights again, I'll be glad to be proven wrong.

[Star One]

Blue Origin clearly like to do all their development out of the public eye and when they do show stuff it’s on their terms. This attitude is common across Amazon when they announced their new Alexa devices recently they only announced the media event on the day. They don’t need to display their working to public view and we need to respect that and not immediately jump to negative conclusions.

If Blue Origin really wants to work that way, then it should work that way.

What happened is that Jeff Bezos promised a manned flight until the end of 2017, while in reality there's not even a single unmanned test this year.

It's just normal to ask what went wrong with that company. Are they serious to work on suborbital tourism? Or is it scam?

I have a suspicion their answer would be at this time it’s none of our business. Also using the word scam in this context is just silliness and prepared to be proved very wrong. In that case I would hope you’d be big enough to come on here and apologise for using the term, being as you well know employees from these companies look in on here.

[Svetoslav]

The scam word was included in a question, not statement. If it sounds unacceptable, please accept my apology.
The other notes however remain.

_{EDIT: Looks like I'm indeed wrong due to language barrier. I checked into a dictionary, and the first result was "a fraudulent business scheme". This was never my intention to ask. My confusion was due to the word used to describe so called "scam emails" I should avoid opening, without knowing the full meaning of this either. Again, it's my fault for using a term (even if it's in a question and not a claim) without first checking its true meaning. Please accept my sincere apology for that.}

[DJPledger]

I dunno.  If there's a change in attitude due to SpaceX's success, it doesn't really reflect on BO.

SpaceX earned their keep.  Early supporters put their trust in SpaceX because they like the companies attitude towards tech and market challenges.  Later supporters put their trust in SpaceX because of their track record.

BO, IMO, is misfiring.  It's not just the BE4 mishap and follow-on silence.  There's just something wrong about the tune.
Too much money maybe.

Logos, Emblems, Latin Mottos, Prizes, Flyboy pictures - and yet very little to show for it.  Almost VG style.

Maybe they're hiding a lot of accomplishment somewhere and will suddenly reveal themselves to be a real player.  But so far, meh.

Blue Origin clearly like to do all their development out of the public eye and when they do show stuff it’s on their terms. This attitude is common across Amazon when they announced their new Alexa devices recently they only announced the media event on the day. They don’t need to display their working to public view and we need to respect that and not immediately jump to negative conclusions.

They say they like to do so...

But they bragged about an engine that clearly wasn't well tested, have publicised a rocket that has no propulsion, and are now touting shady customers.

In reality, they very much talk about things that are not ready.

Please don't forget that BO are around the same stage with NG as SpaceX were before F9 1st launched.

[Star One]

The scam word was included in a question, not statement. If it sounds unacceptable, please accept my apology.
The other notes however remain.

_{EDIT: Looks like I'm indeed wrong due to language barrier. I checked into a dictionary, and the first result was "a fraudulent business scheme". This was never my intention to ask. My confusion was due to the word used to describe so called "scam emails" I should avoid opening, without knowing the full meaning of this either. Again, it's my fault for using a term (even if it's in a question and not a claim) without first checking its true meaning. Please accept my sincere apology for that.}

That’s fine and I should remember that not everyone has English as their first language and is going to know the precise meanings of every English word.

[DJPledger]

I think they have been concentrating on the BE-4 engine.  From what I have read here, they have had two explosions in testing.  They also may work like the old school companies, 40 hour work weeks and slow moving. 

BE-4 dev. is likely going more smoothly than a lot of other rocket engine programs through history. Only two explosions so far during dev. of BE-4 is not bad going. SpaceX have said that they blew up a lot of Merlin hardware, and F-1, and SSME dev. also had their fair share of explosions before they were made to work.

[AlexP]

When was the second explosion announced?

[Svetoslav]

That’s fine and I should remember that not everyone has English as their first language and is going to know the precise meanings of every English word.

Since now we cleared the meaning of the terms, we should note the following: Every leading space entrepreneur has made bold claims in the past and promises he wasn't able to meet on-time. So in a sense, if you make a prediction that doesn't come true, you're misleading the public. And it generates disappointment.

Criticizing a business model, calling a business model bad or misleading is something entirely different. I don't care about business. This is not something I'm personally interested in. But I know a successful model is critical for a company to succeed. After all, the goal of each company is to make money.

Thus said, I should note that if some day Blue decides that the space tourism is too risky for them to do, I will understand them. I'll be extremely disappointed (I want to go to space and not just watch pictures, damnit!), of course, but I'll understand them.

So, back on topic. Last year the company made some significant steps ahead with the New Shepherd program. 2017 was supposed to have been the fruition of the program. What we saw however was museum tours, New Glenn announcement and the mishap with the BE-4 engine.

This was not what I personally expected and what (I guess) many sincere enthusiasts expected.

[meekGee]

I dunno.  If there's a change in attitude due to SpaceX's success, it doesn't really reflect on BO.

SpaceX earned their keep.  Early supporters put their trust in SpaceX because they like the companies attitude towards tech and market challenges.  Later supporters put their trust in SpaceX because of their track record.

BO, IMO, is misfiring.  It's not just the BE4 mishap and follow-on silence.  There's just something wrong about the tune.
Too much money maybe.

Logos, Emblems, Latin Mottos, Prizes, Flyboy pictures - and yet very little to show for it.  Almost VG style.

Maybe they're hiding a lot of accomplishment somewhere and will suddenly reveal themselves to be a real player.  But so far, meh.

Blue Origin clearly like to do all their development out of the public eye and when they do show stuff it’s on their terms. This attitude is common across Amazon when they announced their new Alexa devices recently they only announced the media event on the day. They don’t need to display their working to public view and we need to respect that and not immediately jump to negative conclusions.

They say they like to do so...

But they bragged about an engine that clearly wasn't well tested, have publicised a rocket that has no propulsion, and are now touting shady customers.

In reality, they very much talk about things that are not ready.

Please don't forget that BO are around the same stage with NG as SpaceX were before F9 1st launched.

Yup , that's about where they are.  13 years after starting out, 7-8 years after said F1.

But to read the thread, they're about to launch the world's largest rocket. 

I'd like some extraordinary evidence first, is all.

[daveklingler]

That’s fine and I should remember that not everyone has English as their first language and is going to know the precise meanings of every English word.

This was not what I personally expected and what (I guess) many sincere enthusiasts expected.

If your largest concern is buying a ride on New Shepherd, there's a distinct possibility that you will be disappointed.  If BO decides that their orbital efforts are far enough along, and they've learned enough about operations from NS testing, they might just abandon NS as a product. 

After all, the price of orbital flights (on BO or another carrier) might just be close enough to suborbital that New Shepherd isn't worth pursuing.

[high road]

That’s fine and I should remember that not everyone has English as their first language and is going to know the precise meanings of every English word.

This was not what I personally expected and what (I guess) many sincere enthusiasts expected.

If your largest concern is buying a ride on New Shepherd, there's a distinct possibility that you will be disappointed.  If BO decides that their orbital efforts are far enough along, and they've learned enough about operations from NS testing, they might just abandon NS as a product. 

After all, the price of orbital flights (on BO or another carrier) might just be close enough to suborbital that New Shepherd isn't worth pursuing.

So all their hyping about starting with a suborbital system in order to 'launch cheap, launch often' to learn about operating a rocket is now invalid on both arguments?

[Rik ISS-fan]

New Shepard is in bringing to market phase, BE-4 is in full engine testing phase. BO is building it's orbital launcher factory in Florida. Continuation of New Glenn and New Armstong can only take place after the specs of BE-4 are fully known. (For NG the 1.8MN engines would most likely have been better.)
Isn't SpX awkwardly silent about Dragon 2 and Falcon Heavy development?
Most companies ar quite about their products during development. At the start of a product development they make fuzz to test if there is market for their product and to raise money. They also make fuzz when a product is going to market.
I hope this clarifies the silence from BO a bit. They have funding so no need to make nice presentations at the start of a development project.

I think there has been a setback in bringing New Shepard to market. I expect that there aren't many learning points to learn by launching NS for NG. So without paying customers launching NS is a waist of money.
BO has announced they improved the design of NS to improve it's reusability and decrease it's operating cost. Most likely this takes longer than expected. I also think another problem has occurred,  it could be that the FAA didn't give the operational launch licence. Also the payload demand could be less then expected. But slow development could also explain the NS situation.
I also think BO is short on cash this year, giving priority to BE-4 and the florida factory above NS.

In my oppinion demanding 60h work weeks constantly is a very bad business practice.
People work to live, they don't live to work!

[DJPledger]

I also think BO is short on cash this year, giving priority to BE-4 and the florida factory above NS.

BO are very unlikely to be short on cash as they are funded by JB who is the 2nd richest man in the world who has enough money to fund NASA for around 5 years on his own.

[Star One]

I also think BO is short on cash this year, giving priority to BE-4 and the florida factory above NS.

BO are very unlikely to be short on cash as they are funded by JB who is the 2nd richest man in the world who has enough money to fund NASA for around 5 years on his own.

This recent article addresses the matter of BO’s funding.

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said today that he plans to sell $1 billion worth of stock in the e-commerce giant every year to help fund his spaceflight company Blue Origin, according to SpaceNews. As the world’s second richest person with a net worth of more than $78 billion, behind only Bill Gates, Bezos certainly has the financial resources to do that for many more decades. That bolsters the chances that Blue Origin will stay competitive with Elon Musk’s SpaceX as the two companies continue to pioneer privatized space transportation, both for the commercial and tourism industries.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/4/5/15200102/jeff-bezos-amazon-stock-blue-origin-space-travel-funding

[LouScheffer]

I dunno.  If there's a change in attitude due to SpaceX's success, it doesn't really reflect on BO.

SpaceX earned their keep.  Early supporters put their trust in SpaceX because they like the companies attitude towards tech and market challenges.  Later supporters put their trust in SpaceX because of their track record.

BO, IMO, is misfiring.  It's not just the BE4 mishap and follow-on silence.  There's just something wrong about the tune.
Too much money maybe.

Logos, Emblems, Latin Mottos, Prizes, Flyboy pictures - and yet very little to show for it.  Almost VG style.

Maybe they're hiding a lot of accomplishment somewhere and will suddenly reveal themselves to be a real player.  But so far, meh.

I share this worry.  There is nothing like public exposure to force honesty on where you stand relative to the competition.  Behind closed doors, it's far too easy to convince yourself you are competitive, and not work as urgently as required.   It's also easy to convince yourself you are 90% done, then find that when you need to deliver there was more left than you thought.

Working "as fast as possible" comes in many flavors.  The top few gears require serious sacrifices, and are hard to motivate.  Public exposure of inferior engineering ability of one of the few things that can force this.  (Wartime is another.) 

BO is entirely within their rights to remain silent.  But I worry they may be fooling themselves as to how far they are along.  In theory a super-disciplined internal effort could mitigate these effects.  But in my experience that's almost impossible. It's going against human nature to treat internal deadlines as seriously as external ones.

I don't think BO is alone in this.  I strongly suspect the black world is riddled with similar situations, where the team thinks they are doing great, but public exposure would show otherwise.

[Johnnyhinbos]

I also think BO is short on cash this year, giving priority to BE-4 and the florida factory above NS.

BO are very unlikely to be short on cash as they are funded by JB who is the 2nd richest man in the world who has enough money to fund NASA for around 5 years on his own.

This recent article addresses the matter of BO’s funding.

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said today that he plans to sell $1 billion worth of stock in the e-commerce giant every year to help fund his spaceflight company Blue Origin, according to SpaceNews. As the world’s second richest person with a net worth of more than $78 billion, behind only Bill Gates, Bezos certainly has the financial resources to do that for many more decades. That bolsters the chances that Blue Origin will stay competitive with Elon Musk’s SpaceX as the two companies continue to pioneer privatized space transportation, both for the commercial and tourism industries.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/4/5/15200102/jeff-bezos-amazon-stock-blue-origin-space-travel-funding

For the record, I believe Bezos has passed Gates to become THE richest person in the world. Meaning, even with whatever burn rate BO costs him, he’s still getting richer.

I think he can afford to float his pet project a bit longer...

[Steve G]

Most of the posters in this thread are suffering from the Instant Gratification Syndrome. BO stated that NS will be taking passengers into space. And it will. Taking passengers into space is a tremendous responsibility, and they certainly aren't rushing to become the first spaceflight company facing a board of inquiry over an inflight fatality. They will move forward with NS when they are certain they have mitigated every risk to a minimum.

They admitted a power plant failure with the BE-4, and they will move forward from that. BO has always been secretive, and don't expect them to change. They are a private company, and they are in a very competitive industry vying for a limited market. And JB has EM and his ambitions that he has to mitigate and adjust to.

Remember that for BO made a bid for commercial crew supply with their biconic capsule, and there is no reason to believe they won't progress with that, or another iteration of it, for the New Glenn. I like the secrecy, it brings back the 60's and 70's wondering what the Soviets were up to.

Posters must be patient for BO to move at its own pace, and respect its desire to keep the cards close to their chest. There is no deadline, no race to push these guys into making a mistake because some people are impatient.

[QuantumG]

Most of the posters in this thread are suffering from the Instant Gratification Syndrome.

Totally... it really is ridiculous for anyone to think a company should be actually selling something 17 years after it is founded. Give 'em some time!