Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread

[Space Ghost 1962]

fast for space... maybe not fast for new phone app development.

Very true for "Firephone". Bezos never understood that either.

"Gradatim" more than "follower". He doesn't want to learn from Musk (cf BE4) nor from Apple/Google either. Ego.

Unlike Amazon, where they relentlessly listen/listened to retailers like Walmart/Sears/Dart Group/... "ferociter".

[deruch]

Definitely a change in attitude. Blue is benefiting from fast follower. SpaceX blunted a lot of the skepticism by delivering payloads... (it's still out there, despite SpaceX haveing lifted 30% of the total mass off planet so far this year with reusable first stages and a bit more with expendables). Blue benefits, basically for freeeeeeee. Bezos is smart that way.

But Blue started first, can you really call them a "follower," fast or otherwise?

Would it make you feel better to call them a "lagging leader"? 

[ChaoticFlounder]

I'll be honest, i don't think we should get too fussed about whether Blue Origin or SpaceX are ahead in the development of their next gen lift system.

Looking ahead,

did we get anything new from Blue out of IAC, other than a new customer?

Any new technical details about their launch vehicle and propulsion system?

have we gotten any updated information on what year an expected first flight might be in?

Cheers,

C

[meekGee]

I dunno.  If there's a change in attitude due to SpaceX's success, it doesn't really reflect on BO.

SpaceX earned their keep.  Early supporters put their trust in SpaceX because they like the companies attitude towards tech and market challenges.  Later supporters put their trust in SpaceX because of their track record.

BO, IMO, is misfiring.  It's not just the BE4 mishap and follow-on silence.  There's just something wrong about the tune.
Too much money maybe.

Logos, Emblems, Latin Mottos, Prizes, Flyboy pictures - and yet very little to show for it.  Almost VG style.

Maybe they're hiding a lot of accomplishment somewhere and will suddenly reveal themselves to be a real player.  But so far, meh.

[Coastal Ron]

fast for space... maybe not fast for new phone app development.

Very true for "Firephone". Bezos never understood that either.

"Gradatim" more than "follower". He doesn't want to learn from Musk (cf BE4) nor from Apple/Google either. Ego.

Unlike Amazon, where they relentlessly listen/listened to retailers like Walmart/Sears/Dart Group/... "ferociter".

I attended a talk by one of Amazon's former hardware designers - kind of like a Jony Ive type guy. He did not have a high opinion about the ability of Jeff Bezos regarding design choices, and listening to the hired help.

Hopefully that is not the case with Blue Origin...

[ChaoticFlounder]

Thinking about the implications of blues business moves lately (close to factory completion in Florida, I don't know the status of engine production facilities in Huntsville but that was a smart political move), I don't think we have much to worry about on the matter of "if" they will get some flights in of new Glenn

When blue says they're going to do something their technology readiness level is at a different point in the program than spacex

[ChaoticFlounder]

P.s. The CEO is not the individual to make design decisions, that is for the director of engineering, the CEO gets to decide how much money every body gets

[meekGee]

P.s. The CEO is not the individual to make design decisions, that is for the director of engineering, the CEO gets to decide how much money every body gets

That's exactly what's wrong with so many companies, and nobody seems to learn.

Remember when Apple brought that CEO from Pepsi?  (Scully?)  Yeah.

And on the flip side:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dieter_Zetsche

CEOs should be leaders, not accountants.

EDIT: I'm responding to the quoted claim.  This is not a dig at Bezos.  I can't get a read as to his level of involvement at BO beyond owenership.

[Coastal Ron]

P.s. The CEO is not the individual to make design decisions, that is for the director of engineering, the CEO gets to decide how much money every body gets

My story about Bezos was from "the horses mouth" for Amazon, and I'm sure we've all read stories of Steve Jobs doing the same (a friend who worked at Apple confirmed that too). Elon Musk is the founder, CEO and lead designer at SpaceX, so you know he's involved with all design decisions.

But those are exceptions, and yes normally CEO's shouldn't be involved at that level.

What is common between those three examples is that they started their companies, and they have all been instrumental in their ultimate success. And they have all created products and services that didn't work out as intended, so maybe it's OK to fail once in a while...

[DJPledger]

I dunno.  If there's a change in attitude due to SpaceX's success, it doesn't really reflect on BO.

SpaceX earned their keep.  Early supporters put their trust in SpaceX because they like the companies attitude towards tech and market challenges.  Later supporters put their trust in SpaceX because of their track record.

BO, IMO, is misfiring.  It's not just the BE4 mishap and follow-on silence.  There's just something wrong about the tune.
Too much money maybe.

Logos, Emblems, Latin Mottos, Prizes, Flyboy pictures - and yet very little to show for it.  Almost VG style.

Maybe they're hiding a lot of accomplishment somewhere and will suddenly reveal themselves to be a real player.  But so far, meh.

BO will only announce something when they are ready. Maybe they have already started work on NA and may make a surprise announcement of it in the not too distant future in an attempt to upstage SpX.

[meekGee]

I dunno.  If there's a change in attitude due to SpaceX's success, it doesn't really reflect on BO.

SpaceX earned their keep.  Early supporters put their trust in SpaceX because they like the companies attitude towards tech and market challenges.  Later supporters put their trust in SpaceX because of their track record.

BO, IMO, is misfiring.  It's not just the BE4 mishap and follow-on silence.  There's just something wrong about the tune.
Too much money maybe.

Logos, Emblems, Latin Mottos, Prizes, Flyboy pictures - and yet very little to show for it.  Almost VG style.

Maybe they're hiding a lot of accomplishment somewhere and will suddenly reveal themselves to be a real player.  But so far, meh.

BO will only announce something when they are ready. Maybe they have already started work on NA and may make a surprise announcement of it in the not too distant future in an attempt to upstage SpX.

You mean like the New Glenn video?

Sure.

But that puts them in the same league as other companies that "who knows, might surprise us".

But so far, they have shown in suborbital program whose only claim to fame is that it seems to have outpaced VG, and a rocket motor whose status is unknown.

Since they have unlimited money, there is no upper bound to how long you can wait for the great reveal.

[Star One]

I dunno.  If there's a change in attitude due to SpaceX's success, it doesn't really reflect on BO.

SpaceX earned their keep.  Early supporters put their trust in SpaceX because they like the companies attitude towards tech and market challenges.  Later supporters put their trust in SpaceX because of their track record.

BO, IMO, is misfiring.  It's not just the BE4 mishap and follow-on silence.  There's just something wrong about the tune.
Too much money maybe.

Logos, Emblems, Latin Mottos, Prizes, Flyboy pictures - and yet very little to show for it.  Almost VG style.

Maybe they're hiding a lot of accomplishment somewhere and will suddenly reveal themselves to be a real player.  But so far, meh.

Blue Origin clearly like to do all their development out of the public eye and when they do show stuff it’s on their terms. This attitude is common across Amazon when they announced their new Alexa devices recently they only announced the media event on the day. They don’t need to display their working to public view and we need to respect that and not immediately jump to negative conclusions.

[meekGee]

I dunno.  If there's a change in attitude due to SpaceX's success, it doesn't really reflect on BO.

SpaceX earned their keep.  Early supporters put their trust in SpaceX because they like the companies attitude towards tech and market challenges.  Later supporters put their trust in SpaceX because of their track record.

BO, IMO, is misfiring.  It's not just the BE4 mishap and follow-on silence.  There's just something wrong about the tune.
Too much money maybe.

Logos, Emblems, Latin Mottos, Prizes, Flyboy pictures - and yet very little to show for it.  Almost VG style.

Maybe they're hiding a lot of accomplishment somewhere and will suddenly reveal themselves to be a real player.  But so far, meh.

Blue Origin clearly like to do all their development out of the public eye and when they do show stuff it’s on their terms. This attitude is common across Amazon when they announced their new Alexa devices recently they only announced the media event on the day. They don’t need to display their working to public view and we need to respect that and not immediately jump to negative conclusions.

They say they like to do so...

But they bragged about an engine that clearly wasn't well tested, have publicised a rocket that has no propulsion, and are now touting shady customers.

In reality, they very much talk about things that are not ready.

[Star One]

I dunno.  If there's a change in attitude due to SpaceX's success, it doesn't really reflect on BO.

SpaceX earned their keep.  Early supporters put their trust in SpaceX because they like the companies attitude towards tech and market challenges.  Later supporters put their trust in SpaceX because of their track record.

BO, IMO, is misfiring.  It's not just the BE4 mishap and follow-on silence.  There's just something wrong about the tune.
Too much money maybe.

Logos, Emblems, Latin Mottos, Prizes, Flyboy pictures - and yet very little to show for it.  Almost VG style.

Maybe they're hiding a lot of accomplishment somewhere and will suddenly reveal themselves to be a real player.  But so far, meh.

Blue Origin clearly like to do all their development out of the public eye and when they do show stuff it’s on their terms. This attitude is common across Amazon when they announced their new Alexa devices recently they only announced the media event on the day. They don’t need to display their working to public view and we need to respect that and not immediately jump to negative conclusions.

They say they like to do so...

But they bragged about an engine that clearly wasn't well tested, have publicised a rocket that has no propulsion, and are now touting shady customers.

In reality, they very much talk about things that are not ready.

Well if you want to spin it that way then of course it sounds more negative. All three of your statements are more supposition than cast iron facts.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

BO will only announce something when they are ready. Maybe they have already started work on NA and may make a surprise announcement of it in the not too distant future in an attempt to upstage SpX.

That’s possible, but in my view until Blue get to orbit with NG anything they say about plans beyond that won’t have much impact. SpaceX get much more benefit of the doubt because of their track record.

[tea monster]

I have no idea what is going on in their labs and factories, but with their current track record, it does appear that their engineering team know what they are doing.

Space is hard and I don't expect any development program to go smoothly. That is why it's a development program after all. Yes, they lost a rocket engine in test. Again, this is what a test program is about. Things go wrong, sometimes spectacularly, and you learn and adapt the design and process accordingly.

NASA also had access to an obscene amount of money and engineering talent and look what 'problems' occurred during the Apollo program!

[meekGee]

I dunno.  If there's a change in attitude due to SpaceX's success, it doesn't really reflect on BO.

SpaceX earned their keep.  Early supporters put their trust in SpaceX because they like the companies attitude towards tech and market challenges.  Later supporters put their trust in SpaceX because of their track record.

BO, IMO, is misfiring.  It's not just the BE4 mishap and follow-on silence.  There's just something wrong about the tune.
Too much money maybe.

Logos, Emblems, Latin Mottos, Prizes, Flyboy pictures - and yet very little to show for it.  Almost VG style.

Maybe they're hiding a lot of accomplishment somewhere and will suddenly reveal themselves to be a real player.  But so far, meh.

Blue Origin clearly like to do all their development out of the public eye and when they do show stuff it’s on their terms. This attitude is common across Amazon when they announced their new Alexa devices recently they only announced the media event on the day. They don’t need to display their working to public view and we need to respect that and not immediately jump to negative conclusions.

They say they like to do so...

But they bragged about an engine that clearly wasn't well tested, have publicised a rocket that has no propulsion, and are now touting shady customers.

In reality, they very much talk about things that are not ready.

Well if you want to spin it that way then of course it sounds more negative. All three of your statements are more supposition than cast iron facts.

Well of course they are, since there aren't any cast iron achievements - and that's the point.

It"s not as if BO has a track record of only revealing big things "once they are ready". They are not shy at all.

Regular companies, if they can't deliver for >10 years (13?), they shut down.

BO is an exception, so we can only speculate.

But all I'm saying is that there isn't any evidence of either secret achievement or of some sort of reluctance to boast.

[Svetoslav]

Blue Origin clearly like to do all their development out of the public eye and when they do show stuff it’s on their terms. This attitude is common across Amazon when they announced their new Alexa devices recently they only announced the media event on the day. They don’t need to display their working to public view and we need to respect that and not immediately jump to negative conclusions.

If Blue Origin really wants to work that way, then it should work that way.

What happened is that Jeff Bezos promised a manned flight until the end of 2017, while in reality there's not even a single unmanned test this year.

It's just normal to ask what went wrong with that company. Are they serious to work on suborbital tourism?

[Darkseraph]

There seems to be a perception on the internet that Blue Origin must be doing very little because they are not frequently releasing teaser information to excite people who follow these topics. But, their end goal is not temporarily exciting people online through press releases, it's to permanently lower the cost of access to space. Likes and retweets don't pay the bills and given the backing they have from Bezos they don't really have to hype their product yet. I suspect the company is heads down, hands on quietly working away at the problem of making a large reusable launcher and will announce something new when they're ready to.

So far they haven't made too many dramatic announcements that they later have to retract and descope and that's probably a good thing. People often say space is hard, but it's also slow. Nothing changes overnight and anyone believing it will is going to be dissapointed Anything of importance in spaceflight takes years to get done. Just look at the protracted developments of Falcon Heavy (or actually any other space program)

[Svetoslav]

There seems to be a perception on the internet that Blue Origin must be doing very little because they are not frequently releasing teaser information to excite people who follow these topics. But, their end goal is not temporarily exciting people online through press releases, it's to permanently lower the cost of access to space. Likes and retweets don't pay the bills and given the backing they have from Bezos they don't really have to hype their product yet. I suspect the company is heads down, hands on quietly working away at the problem of making a large reusable launcher and will announce something new when they're ready to.

So far they haven't made too many dramatic announcements that they later have to retract and descope and that's probably a good thing. People often say space is hard, but it's also slow. Nothing changes overnight and anyone believing it will is going to be dissapointed Anything of importance in spaceflight takes years to get done. Just look at the protracted developments of Falcon Heavy (or actually any other space program)

The problem is that BO showed us quite a lot of things in 2015 and 2016. Their lack of progress in 2017 is worrisome.

They executed all necessary steps before a manned flight, including an in-flight abort test. There's no rational reason why BO abruptly stopped not only with meaningful press releases, but also with rocket launches.